womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
You never want to be sure too early in the game but the consensus seems to be moving in the direction of Michigan no longer being a battleground state. Trump has a million different problems there and my gut feeling tells me he's cooked in that state.
I don't trust Florida for one second to do the right thing so in my view they are deep red until proven otherwise.
No question that all of these polls, both national and state will tighten. Trump is trying to get a 2T bill passed. He knows that the first bill is the reason for the jobs number and he will do anything to get that higher. Then of course the usual. All of the voter suppression tactics.
And to be honest. With these poll numbers, I have little doubt that Trump campaign is in contact with foreign entities about interference.
The only good I take from these is that the larger the lead now, the more Trump has to eat into along the way. The plus is that there are far fewer undecideds this time around. He has fewer voters to pull from than he did in 2016 to climb back up the polls.
If you look back at 2016, There were wild swings in 538 projections over 5 months time. So we will see a swing back at some point. I'm guessing if we see another large jobs number, there will be some sliding back.
Just a side note. Still puzzled that the myth of the polls being totally wrong in 2016 still persists. In November, Clinton was +3.1 over Trump. That's within the standard margin of error. So looking at how the result came out, If Biden can make it to November north of +4 nationally, and +4 or greater in pivotal swing states, he should be ok. My hope is that he is more around +6 but that will be a tall order.