US Politics XXI: Old Man 3-Way

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Just some poling and pontification from data wonks to sort of get a feel of where the race stands today. Still can't believe we don't have more polling of these upcoming states.


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1236349989388988417

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1235706359087169536

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1236348470262476806

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1236051404529287168

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1235619021741068288

I think this last one is interesting and accurate in trying to make sense of Sanders clear faltering in "white working class" support.
Seeing the huge drops in OK, Maine, MN, hell, Mass, and looking like MO.

There seems to be a choice that happened in 2016. A subset of white working class supported Bernie but were on the edge with Trump. They are now with Trump, and the other subset was the suburban white, moderate Repubs that voted for Rubio or Kasich, and they have no political home because of Trump. They are now turning to Biden. Along with a whole group of voters it seemed that just plain hated Hillary Clinton, but like Biden.
 
That’s a very truthful point about the Trump defectors. But they’re the ones who could be won back over in the general.
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
That’s a very truthful point about the Trump defectors. But they’re the ones who could be won back over in the general.
Click to expand...

True. But this time, while both Sanders and Biden have the chance to win them back, I would note that from what we have seen in the primaries that Joe can definitely lay claim to being the stronger one on that front.

If it's a choice between Sanders and Trump, they will most likely stick with their guy. Biden v Trump, Biden (not being Hillary) will have a better shot at pulling them.
 
Not really sure why you said that last statement. A core piece of Trumpism is the anti-establishment and re-establishment allure. Biden doesn’t offer that. I would agree that old-white-man is also a core piece of Trumpism, which Biden very well overs more than Sanders does (Sanders being a Jewish communist blah blah blah makes him a bit “worldly”).

At the end of the day, what we would need to see is statistics on repeat voters (surprised that’s not a more commonly themed set of questions at exits). I suppose it’s very hard to capture who votes in the 2016 DPs and did not vote in 2020.
 
womanfish said:
I think this last one is interesting and accurate in trying to make sense of Sanders clear faltering in "white working class" support.
Seeing the huge drops in OK, Maine, MN, hell, Mass, and looking like MO.
Click to expand...

how many delegates does hell send to the convention?
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
Not really sure why you said that last statement. A core piece of Trumpism is the anti-establishment and re-establishment allure. Biden doesn’t offer that. I would agree that old-white-man is also a core piece of Trumpism, which Biden very well overs more than Sanders does (Sanders being a Jewish communist blah blah blah makes him a bit “worldly”).

At the end of the day, what we would need to see is statistics on repeat voters (surprised that’s not a more commonly themed set of questions at exits). I suppose it’s very hard to capture who votes in the 2016 DPs and did not vote in 2020.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I may be overstating it. I am just looking at the primary voter info that we have. For example, in MN. In 2016, Sanders won white with no college degree by 15 points over Clinton. This time he lost them by 12 points to Biden.
If MO numbers are any indicator, Sanders tied Clinton in 2016 overall. Avg of polls have Biden +13. This could be for a number of reasons. But I'm not doubting that white working class voters aren't at least part of it.

Again, probably ahead of myself to extrapolate that to the General with Trump. But saying that it may lean Biden a bit.
 
deep said:
When I started posting in here again awhile back, one of the first posts I wrote was that Kamala Harris would be the VP pick for the Dem nominee,
It won't be Demmings, Amy K, Warren, Stacey A.


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/486480-kamala-harris-endorses-biden-presidential-bid
Click to expand...

I'm not sure if it won't be any of those you named They all would be great choices, except I think Amy should probably be passed on, just because I think she would be the one to bring the least stabalization to the Dem party as a whole to go against Trump.

I think those others are clearly in the running. Demings, AA, female from the biggest swing state in the country (second biggest if we count TX), and Abrams, AA female, from the 4th biggest swing state (if we count TX)

Harris is great, but from California, that's definitely a strike against her.
 
Fmr. Bloomberg adviser Tim O'Brien: "If Republicans really want to make an issue out of Hunter Biden ... there is going to be a scorched earth response aimed at all of the Trump children that is going to be unlike anything they've experienced thus far."
Click to expand...

Like Headache said - rich uncle Mike don't give a fuck.

I think that he's absolutely delighted to spend a billion trashing the entire Trump family every day of the week and twice on Sunday. And I'm here for it.

These lazy, lying, entitled grifter fucks have been like teflon because nobody's come at them hard so far.
 
If you could put the Bloomberg and Trump families on a deserted island with no means of communication to the outside world then that would be ideal. With their collective wealth redistributed to America's poor, of course.
 
Good. Bring it on. Like I said, Trump and his supporters can shut the fuck up. They've made it abundantly clear what kinds of things they're willing to excuse and overlook, so I don't want to hear a single peep from them about anyone else's flaws/questionable pasts/policies/etc. Not a single word.
 
New Michigan poll just dropped.

Biden - 54
Sanders - 33

Even so, I'm guessing it's going to be much closer. Bernie has been there for 3 days straight doing dozens of events, and this is a pretty strong state for him to begin with.
 
Bernie is
zRxrlgN.jpg
 
Flurry of new polls out this morning

Another one from MI
Biden - 51
Sanders - 27

Missouri
Biden - 62
Sanders - 32

Mississippi
Biden - 77
Sanders - 22

Illinois
Biden - 55
Sanders - 26

Arizona
Biden - 45
Sanders - 17
(This one still had Blooomberg and Warren)

Again, these are just polls. I still think MI will be closer. But aside from WA state, It looks like we are witnessing a Sanders collapse.
 
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Fucking establishment

Rather than work on the outbreak, Trump spent all morning attacking the Dems. Still divisive even in the worst of times
 
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