US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of

[womanfish]

i feel like kamala harris would probably rather hold out for the attorney general position than be VP.

I hate it when you make so much sense. I mean really. AG has actual power and influence. The VP does not.

Here is the issue with Biden choosing a VP, and some really great points have been made here.

Abrams would be awesome, but is she too inexperienced right now? But GA possibly going blue? wow. (First female VP, First AA VP, energizing speaker/campaigner)

Harris would be awesome, but again, AG... and she isn't going to bring a state with her.
(First female VP, First AA VP, good campaigner, great debater)

Warren would actually be a cool idea of a "unity" ticket. But would she want it? She knows she does more as a Senator than a VP, if we take the senate. And she is not going to bring a state along with her. (First female VP, great debater - can you imagine Liz vs. Pence)

Tammy Baldwin - Lesser known and may not really be as exciting as these other choices. But would lock up WI, probably the most delicate of states to flip back to blue after 2016.
(First female VP, First gay VP)

Someone asked about a male choice. I think the only two would be Booker or Castro.
Castro already hitched his wagon to Warren, so not sure he would go for it. But of the two, if FL and TX are both on the edge of flipping back to blue, Castro could push them over the edge. (First Latino VP, great debater)

I wanna say that Jerry had mentioned a female Hispanic choice, but I forgot her name. Anyone remember? Would like to find out more about her.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Warren would be the obvious choice if she weren't also in her 70s.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Looking like Bernie will take California by 8 points over Biden, 33 to 25 - a significantly closer race than anyone expected a week ago... but Bloomberg and Warren will both not make 15%.

Also this

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1235579760014544897?s=19

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Yeah, I live just outside of the city, and spent most of the night in the closet. But was ok.
just sad for the city.

Glad you're all right . My heart breaks for everyone in that area, the footage I've seen is just unreal and horrifying.

 

[DaveC]

https://twitter.com/markmobility/status/1234961732046610438

but hunter biden.

 

[BEAL]

And nice for Justice Roberts to speak up with Chuck says something stupid, yet sits idle during impeachment and when Trump attacks his fellow justices

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

And nice for Justice Roberts to speak up with Chuck says something stupid, yet sits idle during impeachment and when Trump attacks his fellow justices

Yes, but Schumer still shouldn't have said what he said the way he said it.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Warren Out.

 

[Hewson]

Wonder if she'll endorse Bernie.

 

[anitram]

I hate it when you make so much sense. I mean really. AG has actual power and influence. The VP does not.

The AG spot makes zero sense if Kamala has any interest whatsoever in being president. In the modern era, being AG is political suicide, it is the single position with the most negative baggage you could bring. If she is thinking strategically about the future, she'd pass. But if she's decided she's done running for president, then I agree she would be excellent.

Bye Liz. You were too good for American politics.

 

[womanfish]

The AG spot makes zero sense if Kamala has any interest whatsoever in being president. In the modern era, being AG is political suicide, it is the single position with the most negative baggage you could bring. If she is thinking strategically about the future, she'd pass. But if she's decided she's done running for president, then I agree she would be excellent.

Bye Liz. You were too good for American politics.

Very good post on all points. Maybe VP would be the better choice to see if she could spring board it into a presidential run.

First, very sad about Liz. Would have loved to have her be our first female president.

Second,
A couple random things hanging around from last night/this morning. - to avoid multiple posts.

Saw a Bernie surrogate on last night that was saying the "establishment" is again "picking" the candidate they want to win. That was absurd enough, since the "establishment" had tossed Joe in the trash can almost a month ago, before voters came and grabbed him out and said, no, this is who we want.
Then she said, it's just like 2016, and "the definition of insanity to doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results". OMG. Seriously. A Bernie surrogate saying that is just about the most ironic thing I've ever heard.
If that really is the definition of insanity, then Crazy Bernie is actually quite an apt nickname.

Also, another Bernie surrogate, asked about the Sanders ad that uses Obama's voice, cut from 4 different speeches to paste together a supportive statement of Bernie. He was shocked and insulted that it was being called disingenuous. So now Bernie is ok with the "establishment" I guess.

And last - Would hope we get some new polling out of the next round of primary states very soon...

 

[womanfish]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1235606465244565504

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1235607202062159872

 

[womanfish]

Sorry, I'm still doing multiple posts. But this is just astounding. I mean... wow

New St.Pete Poll for FL primary.

(Change since Feb 26):

Biden 61% (+27)
Bloomberg 14% (-11)
Sanders 12% (-1)
Warren 5% (-2)

(Poll Conducted Mar 4)

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1235578202753466368

Florida has 219 delegates

 

[Irvine511]

In other shocking news, Aaron Schock finally came out publicly.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Biden had no money, didn't even have a campaign office in some of the states he won, was left for dead as soon as a week ago, and the voters who launched his comeback were largely people of color.

But sure - it's the establishment maaaaaaaaaaan

 

[Irvine511]

Bernie won't break 30%. in California.

ceiling.

the greater electability argument is over.

sure, he could beat Trump in the general. but the idea that he is a better choice vis-a-vis greater turnout amongst the youngs and the nons is dead.

 

[anitram]

https://medium.com/@teamwarren/the-fight-goes-on-8f5ca2b4b557

Deeply touching.

So if you leave with only one thing, it must be this: Choose to fight only righteous fights, because then when things get tough — and they will — you will know that there is only option ahead of you. Nevertheless, you must persist.

...

When I left one place, I took everything I’d learned before and all the good ideas that were tucked into my brain and all the good friends that were tucked in my heart, and I brought it all forward with me — and it became part of what I did next. This campaign is no different. I may not be in the race for president in 2020, but this fight — our fight — is not over. And our place in this fight has not ended.

...

One last story: When I voted yesterday at the elementary school down the street, a mom came up to me. And she said she has two small children, and they have a nightly ritual. After the kids have brushed teeth and read books and gotten that last sip of water and done all the other bedtime routines, they do one last thing before the two little ones go to sleep.

Mama leans over them and whispers, “Dream big.” And the children together reply, “Fight hard.”

Our work continues, the fight goes on, and big dreams never die.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

And so we are left with mediocre white men again.

 

[womanfish]

Biden had no money, didn't even have a campaign office in some of the states he won, was left for dead as soon as a week ago, and the voters who launched his comeback were largely people of color.

But sure - it's the establishment maaaaaaaaaaan

I think the best case scenario is that Biden has clearly had an organic rise from actual voters, not the hand of the DNC, and if he can win a very decisive victory that even Bernie would have no agrument against, it would make the transition to the general light years more positive and productive.

It looks like ALL of Bloombergs losses went straight to Biden. It also looks like all of Amy and Pete's support went to him as well. Pete and Amy had 16 points between them, Mike lost 11 points, and Biden gained 27, the exact number.

If that holds, his number would be around 75% in FL. Again, astounding is probably too mild of a term to use here. Question will be if Sanders gets 15% because of Warren's departure.

Looking at the map ahead, My best guess, if things go as we are seeing them (not a sure thing by any stretch) Biden could have around 1200 delegates by March 18th.

 

[anitram]

And so we are left with mediocre white men again.

I need to amend this because it is an insult to all mediocre white men to imply that Trump is one of them.

 

[DaveC]

Biden had no money, didn't even have a campaign office in some of the states he won, was left for dead as soon as a week ago, and the voters who launched his comeback were largely people of color.

But sure - it's the establishment maaaaaaaaaaan

yes, surely multiple candidates dropping out and endorsing him in addition to receiving multiple endorsements from congresspeople the day before super tuesday had absolutely no effect on the outcome. the notion that the democrat establishment had anything to do with it is just another one of crazy bernie’s whacko conspiracy theories.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Bernie won't break 30%. in California.

ceiling.

the greater electability argument is over.

sure, he could beat Trump in the general. but the idea that he is a better choice vis-a-vis greater turnout amongst the youngs and the nons is dead.

I’m not sure what you’re talking about. He’s at 34%

 

[Irvine511]

yes, surely multiple candidates dropping out and endorsing him in addition to receiving multiple endorsements from congresspeople the day before super tuesday had absolutely no effect on the outcome. the notion that the democrat establishment had anything to do with it is just another one of crazy bernie’s whacko conspiracy theories.

Other than Clyburn, all that happened after churchy black folks in SC overperformed for Biden.

Hopefully, they and white suburban women will be the “working class rust belt white guys” of 2020.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Warren will not endorse anyone today.

lol

 

[Irvine511]

I’m not sure what you’re talking about. He’s at 34%

Fair enough. When I last looked he was at 29%. He’s now at 33.8%.

In 2016 he was at 47%.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

yes, surely multiple candidates dropping out and endorsing him in addition to receiving multiple endorsements from congresspeople the day before super tuesday had absolutely no effect on the outcome. the notion that the democrat establishment had anything to do with it is just another one of crazy bernie’s whacko conspiracy theories.

Who were the voters that put him over the top?

Where was the mythical youth vote unicorn?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Fair enough. When I last looked he was at 29%. He’s now at 33.8%.

In 2016 he was at 47%.

I just don’t understand why you’re not willing to accept that there’s 4+ candidates in the running? This repeated logic is a one way bias. By your logic, Clinton finished with 52% and Biden can’t even get above 25%. Explain that to me.

 

[DaveC]

Who were the voters that put him over the top?

Where was the mythical youth vote unicorn?

i didn't say you were wrong.

but the unmasked derision at the idea that the party establishment was also influential in moving the needle (by however much) at the last minute for biden is just a nutso whackadoo conspiracy theory "maaaaaaaaan" is a little much.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Who were the voters that put him over the top?

Where was the mythical youth vote unicorn?

Your youth voter concerns are entirely valid.

You’re still not considering that loads of people voted for Bernie. Something like 4.5 million people voted for Biden and 3.5 million voted for Sanders (that have been counted so far) on Super Tuesday.

With a ton of southern states.

Massachusetts was a big freaking deal. So was Minnesota. The rest are very understandable.

 

[Irvine511]

I just don’t understand why you’re not willing to accept that there’s 4+ candidates in the running? This repeated logic is a one way bias. By your logic, Clinton finished with 52% and Biden can’t even get above 25%. Explain that to me.

He’s running at half to 2/3rds support than he ran at in 2016. And in 2016, the CA primary was in June, after he had already lost.

Even though Warren and Bloomberg are sharing 25-30% of the vote, he wouldn’t even get half of that. They cost Biden far more votes. And this was supposed to be Bernie’s big prize.

 

[womanfish]

i didn't say you were wrong.

but the unmasked derision at the idea that the party establishment was influential in moving the needle (by however much) at the last minute for biden is just a nutso whackadoo conspiracy theory "maaaaaaaaan" is a little much.

I get that it's frustrating for Bernie supporters to see long-term Dem elected officials endorse Biden. But that frustration has been cultivated and stoked by Bernie, by lumping them all together into this "establishment" category, giving the very intentional label of being somehow, untrustworthy, not on the same team, etc...
This is another example of Sanders using tactics that create a smaller, but very strong base, but in the end, it's also what keeps him from succeeding.

Here though is the difference between 16 and 20.

Clinton endorsements were I believe in the hundreds by this point in the race. "superdelegates" were already saying they were behind Clinton, There were obvious slights to Bernie along the way.

Not so this time. Biden was looked at with skepticism getting into the race, was doubted all along, was completely left for dead after NH, and had maybe a handful of endorsements from Congresspeople. I think fewer endorsements than Bernie. Bernie was talked about with much more respect and seriousness the whole way. He was the one to beat.

It took Biden actually proving himself in NV and SC, and the voters, NOT the DNC, or establishment put him there. Black voters in SC did. Black voters, educated women, suburban voters, and yes, a fairly broad swath of old/middle/young, professional and working class to get him to frontrunner on Super Tuesday.
Not only did he have to prove himself to voters, but he had to win big enough to win over the other candidates running. And show them, that he was the one to carry on. Pete and Amy of course should have dropped. And their endorsement wasn't going to Biden because he's "establishment" - but because they align policy wise, and they want Trump gone, and they want the Senate.

It turns out that in 16, there was a LARGE block of voters that were not really voting FOR bernie, as they were against Clinton. This has become clear. Also, the whole premise of just getting Trump out, doesn't help Sanders this time either.

But given all that, this time, the "establishment" had nothing to do with Biden's rise.

Bernie surrogates still saying it over and over, may be doing more harm than good this time. It's like when Trump lies about something over and over that people know isn't true. It just drives moderate voters more against him.