US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of

[womanfish]

I don’t understand how you’re disputing this.

Results are current as of this post.

For Biden-Sanders...

Alabama: 40-18
Actual: 62-16 @58%

California: 22-31
Actual: ???

Colorado: 18-27
Actual: 22-36 @83%

Maine: 21-31
Actual: 33-33 @66%

Massachusetts: 18-24
Actual: 33-27 @84%

Minnesota: 18-26
Actual: 38-30 @71%

North Carolina: 35-22
Actual: 43-24 @87%

Oklahoma: 31-22
Actual: 38-25 @78%

Tennessee: 29-25
Actual: 43-24 @70%

Texas: 25-28
Actual: 27-29 @51%

Utah: 20-26
Actual: 18-32 @70%

Vermont: 10-53
Actual: 22-51 @96%

Virginia: 40-21
Actual: 53-23 @99%


Almost every trend is following, but there’s a noticeable uptick in Biden support at the expense of Bloomberg. And so if you follow that 538 link, we are probably looking at a Biden surge (the pink). Looking at just how valuable California and Texas are, you can quickly see how the pink 614-445 (which assumes Biden wins Texas and California) can quickly end up 550-500 in favor of those results are flip flopped.

Of course this is all hand waving because we don’t actually have the delegate sums from almost all of the states, which aren’t directly proportional to vote counts in some or most states. It could end up being a total blowout, I’m not entirely familiar with each state’s rules.

The difference is that In reality, 2 weeks ago, Biden May have won 5 of these states. Bernie was being spoken of like the presumptive nominee, a freight train that couldn’t be stopped.
If Sanders was so appealing, then Pete and Amy voters could have flocked to him. But they didn’t.
Bloomberg is actually still heavily eating into Biden’s numbers tonight, which makes it all the more impressive.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

The difference is that In reality, 2 weeks ago, Biden May have won 5 of these states. Bernie was being spoken of like the presumptive nominee, a freight train that couldn’t be stopped.

If Sanders was so appealing, then Pete and Amy voters could have flocked to him. But they didn’t.

Bloomberg is actually still heavily eating into Biden’s numbers tonight, which makes it all the more impressive.

Coming up the last three days, everyone who is anyone has been talking about the tremendous Biden surge and the unification of the vote.

Your statement about Amy and Pete voters “flocking” to Sanders is hilarious. We all knew that was never going to happen, hence the repeated discussion about whether or not Warren’s votes would go to Sanders.

Yes I agree that Bloomberg is eating into Biden’s numbers, but versus polling it’s most definitely Biden eating into Bloomberg’s numbers. Bernie is not faring the same way with Elizabeth Warren, whose voters have stayed somewhat loyal.

 

[Irvine511]

One nice thing we learned tonight: money can’t buy you everything.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Biden will win Texas, albeit by a small margin

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

One nice thing we learned tonight: money can’t buy you everything.

It can't protect you from being curb stomped by Liz Warren, but it can buy a jet ski.

 

[Irvine511]

It can't protect you from being curb stomped by Liz Warren, but it can buy a jet ski.

And it can win you Napa and Aspen.

And American Samoa.

 

[Irvine511]

Also: Bernie’s performance in 2016 was less about Bernie and more that there was something wrong with Hillary.

People on both sidesreally hated her. I still don’t get it, but they really, really did.

 

[BEAL]

Biden will win Texas, albeit by a small margin

Impossible. I was told for months that Bernie was going to win TX both in primary and flip it blue.

There’s a revolution happening!!

Shame no one turned out to vote for it.

And that’s the sad truth. If we are to believe they Bernie can beat Trump, then he needs to first beat a Democrat.

 

[womanfish]

Lol but it’s not. I mean, it is in places that it was supposed to. Massachusetts and Minnesota were big swings for sure. The rest are as expected. Bernie looks like he over-performed in Colorado and perhaps Utah (to be seen) and maybe Texas.

These results are critical to the Sanders campaign, as clearly they were his stronghold.

In 2016:
Utah
Sanders 80% Clinton 20%
2020:
Sanders 35% Biden 17%


Colorado
Sanders 60% Clinton 40%
2020:
Sanders 36%. Biden 23%

I think Bernie underperformed in Utah, and did slightly better in Colorado. going by this years polling. But it shows the dramatic drop in support from 2016.

And it should be noted that Bloomberg did well in these two states. 21 in CO 17 in UT.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

In 2016:

Utah

Sanders 80% Clinton 20%

2020:

Sanders 35% Biden 17%





Colorado

Sanders 60% Clinton 40%

2020:

Sanders 36%. Biden 23%



I think Bernie underperformed in Utah, and did slightly better in Colorado. going by this years polling. But it shows the dramatic drop in support from 2016.



And it should be noted that Bloomberg did well in these two states. 21 in CO 17 in UT.

I don’t know why you’re continuing to push the notion that many Elizabeth Warren voters aren’t for Bernie, and that all Bloomberg voters are never-Bernie.

Your claim is ridiculous enough that if I were to say it from the opposite side, “Utah just lost their appetite for moderates across the years.”

 

[BEAL]

https://twitter.com/donwinslow/status/1235080933688004608?s=21

So gracious in defeat.

Apparently democrats rig elections with voters.....

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Lmao a “major surrogate.” Give me a fucking break, Marianne Williamson is not a “‘major surrogate.” She’s not even a “surrogate.” She is a former candidate who endorsed Sanders last week.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I don’t know why you’re continuing to push the notion that many Elizabeth Warren voters aren’t for Bernie, and that all Bloomberg voters are never-Bernie.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the amount of people who would chose to vote for a billionaire yet have Bernie as their #2 is, oh I don't know, 1%.

Warren voters? Sure, the majority probably have Bernie as #2. But it's not exactly crazy to say that more Warren voters would break for Biden than Bloomberg voters who would break for Bernie.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Lmao a “major surrogate.” Give me a fucking break, Marianne Williamson is not a “‘major surrogate.” She’s not even a “surrogate.” She is a former candidate who endorsed Sanders last week.

She was a full time surrogate in 2016 and hopped on board to be the same on Sunday after appearing at a rally. She made another appearance for him Monday.

Don't know if I'd consider her "major" as she's a loon. But she is doing events for him in an official capacity.

 

[mikal]

Trump is NOT happy with the results. Poor guy risked being impeached and it's not working. [emoji24]

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the amount of people who would chose to vote for a billionaire yet have Bernie as their #2 is, oh I don't know, 1%.

Warren voters? Sure, the majority probably have Bernie as #2. But it's not exactly crazy to say that more Warren voters would break for Biden than Bloomberg voters who would break for Bernie.

Disagree on the first point. I would fathom there’s a non-insignificant amount of voters who are infatuated with old white strongman for starts, and for mains, “the outsider.” I still would imagine the majority of Bloomies would flock to Biden, though. But in my mind, the small difference that would go to Sanders is probably the same amount of Warren voters that would flock to Biden. So, as I’ve been saying all along, Sanders has some 40-45% potential. Shock shock.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

She was a full time surrogate in 2016 and hopped on board to be the same on Sunday after appearing at a rally. She made another appearance for him Monday.

Don't know if I'd consider her "major" as she's a loon. But she is doing events for him in an official capacity.

Didn’t know that about 2016. Either way yes, she’s a nut job.

Look, this all just annoys me (from either side) because there seems to be a disregard for fact. I don’t understand why there’s a need to make Sanders appear weaker than he is. It’s weird. He never had majority support. But to think that suddenly he’s liked less than before is just “alternative facts.” Last time, he still had his core 25-30%, with the rest saying “well he’s not Hillary” or “down with the establishment” or “yay white old man” or “hail, comrade.” Nothing would change if this was a two horse race.

 

[anitram]

I’m just going to assume Biden is the nominee at this point. I also tend to think that he can’t beat Trump and is a terrible campaigner but at least the turnout numbers are good and he won’t be a down ticket drag. If the Dems can keep the House and reclaim the Senate that would largely neuter Trump but the SCOTUS issue remains. Therefore our only hope is that Bloomberg steps up with a billion or two and buys this thing for Biden. Yes we saw that money can’t buy you everything but it can buy you 15-20% of the primary vote and that translates into more than enough general vote to make a difference.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I’m just going to assume Biden is the nominee at this point. I also tend to think that he can’t beat Trump and is a terrible campaigner but at least the turnout numbers are good and he won’t be a down ticket drag. If the Dems can keep the House and reclaim the Senate that would largely neuter Trump but the SCOTUS issue remains. Therefore our only hope is that Bloomberg steps up with a billion or two and buys this thing for Biden. Yes we saw that money can’t buy you everything but it can buy you 15-20% of the primary vote and that translates into more than enough general vote to make a difference.

Well, as I was saying last night, a lot of Sanders’ campaign was betting on Texas and California. Texas is a clear dud, but Sanders can still squeak out of Super Tuesday potentially ahead if Bloomberg and Warren slip below 15% in California.

 

[Irvine511]

Texas closed 750 polling places after SCOTUS gutted the Voting Rights act.

Remember when that happened and, in here, we were told by conservatives that we shouldn’t continue to punish southern states for being super racist because, hey, it’s the 21st century? They can be trusted.

Me too.


https://www.thedailybeast.com/hervi...o-cast-his-ballot?source=facebook&via=desktop


Red states — by which we really mean “conservative whites” — can’t be trusted not to oppress and disenfranchise their citizens of color. They need to be put on notice and should have to check in with the smarter, more prosperous and advanced blue states like the moral children white conservatives really are.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Conspiracy theory spreading like wildfire that the DNC made Pete and Amy drop out to give Biden an advantage yesterday.

It's going to be the conspiracy against Bernie story all over again.

 

[mikal]

Conspiracy theory spreading like wildfire that the DNC made Pete and Amy drop out to give Biden an advantage yesterday.



It's going to be the conspiracy against Bernie story all over again.

Establishment! Billionaires!

 

[BEAL]

Yes. The news of Amy and Pete dropping out cause a huge surge in voter turnout. This was the sign, the signal to the establishment to rise up.

Bernie can’t win the black vote. Without it he cannot beat Donald Trump.

Youth vote never turns out, and what a sad state that is considering what’s at stake.


https://twitter.com/owillis/status/1235208214251216898?s=21

SEVEN HOURS to vote. This will only get worse for the general

 

[Irvine511]

I waited 2 hours to vote in 2012 in VA. At the time, it was a purple state with a red governor and I was in a blue neighborhood.

Somehow, the huge room where I had voted in previous elections was under co structure and there was only like 2 voting machines in the basement of said building.

It was bullshit.

I waited in line.

 

[mikal]

And Bloomberg is endorsing Biden.

Trump: Someone get Ukraine on the line!

 

[BEAL]

Congress is already lining up the subpoena for Hunter Biden. He must answer for his crimes!!!!

We cannot allow nepotism in our Government!!!

Ivanka
Junior
Jared
Bill Barr's Daughter
Bill Barr's Son in Law
Rudy's son

 

[womanfish]

I don’t know why you’re continuing to push the notion that many Elizabeth Warren voters aren’t for Bernie, and that all Bloomberg voters are never-Bernie.

Your claim is ridiculous enough that if I were to say it from the opposite side, “Utah just lost their appetite for moderates across the years.”

Well, I'm not gonna say I know anything. But my gut tells me that there are a good portion of VERY moderate/conservative Dems and more liberal upper class Republicans that are voting for Bloomberg precisely because they don't like Trump. They also are probably the type that may not switch over to Sanders upon Bloomberg's drop.

Warren, my take is this. Probably a solid 50 to 60% would go to Bernie. But I think we are underestimating the largely female, but also male Clinton supporters that are backing Warren as an amazing female candidate. But still unfortunately are not favorable of Bernie after 2016. Not saying they wouldn't back Bernie in the general, but they may not in the primary.

Of course all conjecture. but something to consider.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

At the end of the day in a head to head with Sanders and Biden, it isn’t a 70-30 blowout.

Just saying.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Disagree on the first point. I would fathom there’s a non-insignificant amount of voters who are infatuated with old white strongman for starts, and for mains, “the outsider.” I still would imagine the majority of Bloomies would flock to Biden, though. But in my mind, the small difference that would go to Sanders is probably the same amount of Warren voters that would flock to Biden. So, as I’ve been saying all along, Sanders has some 40-45% potential. Shock shock.

Yea we're going to agree to disagree on that.

I have no doubt that there are some Bloomberg to Bernie voters because, I dunno, some people just want to watch the world burn.

I don't believe for a second that the percentage of Bloomberg to Bernie voters is equal to the Warren to Biden voters.

It doesn't make any sense for someone to support a billionaire and then turn to the guy who demonizes billionaires at every turn, whereas with Warren supporters you have a lot of former Hillary stans and people turned off by Bernie.

 

[womanfish]

Just had an interesting conversation this morning. I have a friend from work, mid-50's, lifelong Republican, white, evangelical, voted for Trump in Florida - In the bellweather Tampa area.
He said he is considering voting for Biden if he is the candidate, but would never for Bernie.

Said he just wants some normalcy and if it isn't Romney, then Biden seems at least someone that would bring that.

Just one story that may be duplicated tens of thousands of times across the country right now.