US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of

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I've heard from more than one source that Trump and his people are more concerned about Bernie than any of the other candidates
 
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I remember in 2016, when the GOP was panicking about Trump, and all of the dems were hoping he would be the nominee. Michael Moore was saying to anyone that would listen, that Trump was the one guy that could beat Hillary .
 
deep said:
I remember in 2016, when the GOP was panicking about Trump, and all of the dems were hoping he would be the nominee. Michael Moore was saying to anyone that would listen, that Trump was the one guy that could beat Hillary .
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Yes. She would have beaten a conventional Republican. Trump was a shiny new penny and, for some, the pussy-grabbing came off like authenticity.

I missed the debate. What happened?
 
Irvine511 said:
Yes. She would have beaten a conventional Republican. Trump was a shiny new penny and, for some, the pussy-grabbing came off like authenticity.

I missed the debate. What happened?
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Sanders was booed multiple times, punted on his gun record and deflected the Cuba thing with a hearty whatabout US foreign policy. Everyone but Sanders was out to get him and he looked flustered at times. Whenever he gets in a bind he just wags his fingers and says something about billionaires, no matter the subject.

Bloomberg was better but not great. His best moments were on his policies, had a few jokes go over like a giant fart in a small room, and almost said "bought" instead of funded when talking about the Dem seats he helped in 2018.

Biden had a strong night. He took out Steyer on prisons and Bernie on guns. Best he's done all campaign, which was a low bar but he cleared it comfortably.

Warren is only still in this thing to Chris Christie Bloomberg. Every attack went his way, she more or less left Bernie alone. Didn't come off as well as last week IMO.

Pete smiled a lot. Got a few zingers in but was otherwise a huge bowl of meh.

Amy didn't even speak for the first 20 minutes of the debate. She was better than last week but had her terrible dad joke crown stolen away by Bloomberg.

Steyer's a person who was on stage.

Trump was attacked more but still not enough.

Bloomberg brought up coronavirus and attacked Trump's response, which would have been a good moment for him if Biden didn't pick it up and run with it.

The moderators were awful - but at least they had some foreign policy and gun control questions. There was very little time devoted to climate, and they ended the debate by asking for the candidates to give a quote about themselves, which I'm assuming will be used in the 2020 Democrat Senior Year Book.

#BernieTwitter is already explaining away the boos by either claiming that Bloomberg and Biden paid the crowd or that they were actually saying Boooornie.

I think that's it.

Oh, and deep is back and has jokes.
 
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Headache in a Suitcase said:
Sanders was booed multiple times, punted on his gun record and deflected the Cuba thing with a hearty whatabout US foreign policy. Everyone but Sanders was out to get him and he looked flustered at times. Whenever he gets in a bind he just wags his fingers and says something about billionaires, no matter the subject.

Bloomberg was better but not great. His best moments were on his policies, had a few jokes go over like a giant fart in a small room, and almost said "bought" instead of funded when talking about the Dem seats he helped in 2018.

Biden had a strong night. He took out Steyer on prisons and Bernie on guns. Best he's done all campaign, which was a low bar but he cleared it comfortably.

Warren is only still in this thing to Chris Christie Bloomberg. Every attack went his way, she more or less left Bernie alone. Didn't come off as well as last week IMO.

Pete smiled a lot. Got a few zingers in but was otherwise a huge bowl of meh.

Amy didn't even speak for the first 20 minutes of the debate. She was better than last week but had her terrible dad joke crown stolen away by Bloomberg.

Steyer's a person who was on stage.

Trump was attacked more but still not enough.

Bloomberg brought up coronavirus and attacked Trump's response, which would have been a good moment for him if Biden didn't pick it up and run with it.

The moderators were awful - but at least they had some foreign policy and gun control questions. There was very little time devoted to climate, and they ended the debate by asking for the candidates to give a quote about themselves, which I'm assuming will be used in the 2020 Democrat Senior Year Book.

#BernieTwitter is already explaining away the boos by either claiming that Bloomberg and Biden paid the crowd or that they were actually saying Boooornie.

I think that's it.

Oh, and deep is back and has jokes.
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Sounds like my dinner was more fun
 
So Biden gets very heartfelt endorsement from Clyburn.

After a good debate, second in NV, and this endorsement. It will be interesting to see how SC goes.

last night i predicted a 6 point win for Biden.
If voters shed off of Steyer once they enter that voting booth, it may be a very good day for Joe.

I think to really change the narrative moving forward, his win would need to be more in the 8 to 10 point range.
 
Also, Warren's support of Sanders last night was worrisome to me. Please don't tell me she's shooting for a VP slot with Sanders. I don't think that would be a winning combo.
 
I don't think she'd want the VP spot - age is an issue, but also a VP is largely a ceremonial role. I'd imagine Treasury Secretary or something would be more likely. But in any event, I think what last night showed is that she believes in the progressive causes/movement and finds the notion of Bloomberg to be offensive moreso than angling for some Bernie administration spot.

If Biden can win with a margin close to double digits (like say 8-9), I think that would be huge to him. Obviously anything 10+ is a bit of a blowout.

I don't understand how Steyer is polling that high there but he significantly underperformed in NV compared to his polling numbers so he could face a collapse in SC too.
 
womanfish said:
Also, Warren's support of Sanders last night was worrisome to me. Please don't tell me she's shooting for a VP slot with Sanders. I don't think that would be a winning combo.
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I also have a concern about it being a winning ticket. I think it’s either him or her on the ticket for progressives, but Sanders is better off with someone younger who isn’t known well enough to be vilified on the right (yet).

Though I disagree that VP is a ceremonious pick etc... this is only true when the top of the ticket is overwhelmingly powerful (like Clinton). Sanders VP pick could very likely play a large role in the 2020 administration were he to win, and could end up at the 2024 nominee. For this particular aspect of a theoretical Bernie ticket, two oldies is bad optics, though I would say statistically you’re safe with two of them.
 
anitram said:
I don't think she'd want the VP spot - age is an issue, but also a VP is largely a ceremonial role. I'd imagine Treasury Secretary or something would be more likely. But in any event, I think what last night showed is that she believes in the progressive causes/movement and finds the notion of Bloomberg to be offensive moreso than angling for some Bernie administration spot.

If Biden can win with a margin close to double digits (like say 8-9), I think that would be huge to him. Obviously anything 10+ is a bit of a blowout.

I don't understand how Steyer is polling that high there but he significantly underperformed in NV compared to his polling numbers so he could face a collapse in SC too.
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Yeah, the Steyer thing is really shitty to me. He poured money into AA owned media/businesses the past two months and has pretty much resided there and NV for about the same period. He spent 16 million in NV, and 15 in SC.

He tanked in NV. Was polling around 9% and got 4% I think? But have to take into account that it was a caucus, and possible that many had to shift off of him from first choice to second, which won't happen in SC.

Right now he is pulling almost 18% in SC. I can't imagine the blowout that Biden would have had if not for him.

And what is all that for? I just don't get it. There are so many spoilers in this race that it just seems like Sanders is going to walk away with it, no matter what.
 
womanfish said:
Yeah, the Steyer thing is really shitty to me. He poured money into AA owned media/businesses the past two months and has pretty much resided there and NV for about the same period. He spent 16 million in NV, and 15 in SC.



He tanked in NV. Was polling around 9% and got 4% I think? But have to take into account that it was a caucus, and possible that many had to shift off of him from first choice to second, which won't happen in SC.



Right now he is pulling almost 18% in SC. I can't imagine the blowout that Biden would have had if not for him.



And what is all that for? I just don't get it. There are so many spoilers in this race that it just seems like Sanders is going to walk away with it, no matter what.
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Surprisingly, I’m not sure the Steyer votes are necessarily going for Biden thereafter. At least, if the Nevada results are anything to base off of, when Steyer’s voters’ votes shifted after loss of viability, it was Sanders that the majority of them flocked to.

I think this lends itself to the type of voter who likes an outsider. The same union of Trump-Sanders voters who want Sanders-Steyer, regardless of the differing ideology.

Of course, in South Carolina the demographics are very different from Nevada. It could be that Nevada isn’t a good example of Steyer voters’ second choice. But, if Nevada is a good national indication, it seems that Bernie’s side of the unified vote could very well have a “never-establishment” aspect, similar to the “never-bernie” coalition that theoretically exists. In all likelihood these parts probably sum up to nearly the ~55-45 we saw in 2016.
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
Surprisingly, I’m not sure the Steyer votes are necessarily going for Biden thereafter. At least, if the Nevada results are anything to base off of, when Steyer’s voters’ votes shifted after loss of viability, it was Sanders that the majority of them flocked to.

I think this lends itself to the type of voter who likes an outsider. The same union of Trump-Sanders voters who want Sanders-Steyer, regardless of the differing ideology.

Of course, in South Carolina the demographics are very different from Nevada. It could be that Nevada isn’t a good example of Steyer voters’ second choice. But, if Nevada is a good national indication, it seems that Bernie’s side of the unified vote could very well have a “never-establishment” aspect, similar to the “never-bernie” coalition that theoretically exists. In all likelihood these parts probably sum up to nearly the ~55-45 we saw in 2016.
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All very good points. It's hard to say on where Steyers votes went or will go. The possibility in NV is that Steyers votes may have gone to Biden, and gave him the second place. Or maybe they kind of scattered over the field, or maybe they went mainly to Sanders. It's hard to say.

And you are so right that the demo of SC is so different from NV, that it's all very hard to read.
 
mikal said:
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/po...dent-moderates-data?__twitter_impression=true
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DyaHfgGX4AA8Prt.jpg
 
With 14 States voting 3 days after South Carolina, I don't think South Carolina matters that much, unless Biden losses or only wins by a couple of points
even so how does that change what people are going to do three days later? are people in California the biggest state which is going for Sanders, going to jump to Biden if it wins by 10 points in South Carolina, I don't think so
 
Yeah I definitely think South Carolina results are only a big deal for Super Tuesday if Biden loses. It’ll really take a knock on his perception as a viable candidate... even though he’s easily the most equipped alternative to Sanders.

I think it’s pretty much done if Sanders wins South Carolina. The dominos fall in his favor.
 
So narcissistic that he sees a pandemic only in terms of how it affects his reelection. And sees a media conspiracy in everything.


Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

4h
Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) &
@CNN
are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape!
@CDCgov
.....
 
deep said:
With 14 States voting 3 days after South Carolina, I don't think South Carolina matters that much, unless Biden losses or only wins by a couple of points
even so how does that change what people are going to do three days later? are people in California the biggest state which is going for Sanders, going to jump to Biden if it wins by 10 points in South Carolina, I don't think so
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Momentum for Bernie. If he wins and looks rejuvenated, that could sway the Pete/Bloomberg crowd into uniting under Biden to try to boost him ahead of Bernie.
 
That debate last night was a trainwreck. I couldn't stay awake for the whole thing, they're good medicine for insomnia.

I can't stand when one candidate is speaking and the others are raising their hands -drives me up the wall. It's like elementary school.

Bloomberg and Steyer should drop out and put all that money into Congressional races. They both should have done that a long time ago.
 
MrsSpringsteen said:
So narcissistic that he sees a pandemic only in terms of how it affects his reelection. And sees a media conspiracy in everything.


Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

4h
Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) &
@CNN
are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape!
@CDCgov
.....
Click to expand...

Given that it's mostly old men dying of this, he should be a tad more circumspect.
 
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