US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of

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hey guys, let's just forget about the fact that the lives of ordinary cubans improved by several orders of magnitude under the castro regime by giving them healthcare and education, and that the american-backed batista regime also killed scores of its own citizens, totally ignored the needs (and existence) of the cuban poor, and literally was a money-laundering scheme for the new york mafia (there's a reason las vegas became las vegas in the 60s), and act like everything fidel castro did was universally evil and bad and nothing he ever did was good or had any beneficial outcome for cubans at all. :up:
Wow you've completely gone off the rails.
 
Here's the latest FL polling:

St. Pete Polls 2/18 - 2/19 2412 LV

Bloomberg - 32
Biden - 27
Sanders - 11

This was pre-Castro remarks

the polling between the democratic candidates is meaningless when you're talking about the general election.

sanders and trump are tied in the latest versus poll and the average going back to december has sanders at +0.3 which is a tie as well.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Florida.html

both bloomberg and biden do have larger leads over trump than sanders does. and certainly commenting about fidel castro in any way other than total condemnation likely doesn't help in florida. but FL is certainly not just a hopeless lost cause if sanders does end up the nominee. the reverse of that kind of thinking is exactly what led the clinton campaign to ignore states like MI and WI that they assumed were safe.
 
the soviet union started as a feudal agrarian society made up of landless serfs and aristocrats, had to fight a civil war that killed 10 million and then total war that destroyed literally half their country and killed 15% of the population, and they still managed to put a man in orbit in less than 40 years.
[emoji813]
 
This is really offensive. I am lactose intolerant and haven't eaten cereal in like 40 years.

:applaud::D:lol::applaud:

Except that you said it actively hurt him. Which it didn't. Bloomberg made it very clear back in early 2019 that he would only run if he saw Bernie/some other radical progressive defying the odds and winning the whole thing. The media only really hounded him about it until Biden declared, which was of Biden's own making since he declared relatively late compared to the other front-runners. At that point, Biden was running ahead of the field, polling at about 30-40% and Bloomberg made no attempt to run, nor was he an ongoing media attraction. Then you had Warren start emerging as a real threat and Wall Street panicked because she surged to an early lead in Iowa and NH and even NV. THAT is when Bloomberg got re-engaged, but didn't even enter the race until Bernie's heart and campaign were suddenly revived in the fall.

There is no way that Biden was bleeding any voters to Bloomberg throughout 2019. All of his issues were self-made.

You make a good point. I accept that he lazily thought his name would get him through IA and NH, and then he would bring it home in NV and SC.
NV didn't really pan out, so SC will be interesting.



I don't know what media or polls you're following that I'm not but nobody is talking about Amy Klobuchar or Elizabeth Warren as real contenders anymore. Pete is a bit more unpredictable so maybe he's still hanging on.

I have nothing personal against Joe Biden. I have a lot personally against Donald Trump. And I don't think that Joe Biden can beat Trump.

Well they definitely say that Warren is heading onto Super Tuesday. And Pete is almost the most funny to me. He literally has no prospect of picking up a single delegate outside of Indiana. Amy I think anyone with a speck of objectivity knows that she is way past her expiration date. Worst thing to happen recently was that she got a temporary boost in NH.
To 3rd place!! Woo hoo!!

As for Biden beating Trump. I think that you're focusing too much on the primary and not so much on how the general will be.

Lets set aside Bloomberg for now, as I do think Bloomberg would beat Trump.

So say it's Biden.
I know you don't like him. I think we can both agree, that his weaknesses are energizing and young voters...

So now the pluses.

Midwest appeal. Folksy, working class vibe, known and respected, PA would be a lock, MI, and WI almost assured. Although WI is looking more pink every day. NH would be out of play for Trump.

High backing from minority voters, especially those that vote somewhere in the 80-90% range.

Strong relationship with Union, blue collar voters.

Probably the best candidate to keep the moderate suburban vote and even grow it. Really the most essential part of winning big, opening new states, and winning the Senate.

Say for argument that WI is narrowly won by Trump. Ok. If that were Bernie, he'd be in a terribly tight situation. But for Biden, his backups are NC, AZ, FL, GA, and TX, No other candidate in the field has options close to that.

I think that you are dismissing the built in surge of people that want Trump gone, an urgency not at play in 2016. A candidate that has no more baggage than what has already been thrown at him. A guy that actually is a better campaigner than Hillary, Who is more liked and respected than Hillary, and can still, even though debating is blah, can still give fiery speeches not even attempted by Clinton.

I would say the "electibility" probably goes, Bloomberg, Biden, Sanders, Pete/Warren (tied), Amy at this point.
 
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I think that you are dismissing the built in surge of people that want Trump gone, an urgency not at play in 2016. A candidate that has no more baggage than what has already been thrown at him. A guy that actually is a better campaigner than Hillary, Who is more liked and respected than Hillary, and can still, even though debating is blah, can still give fiery speeches not even attempted by Clinton.

I would say the "electibility" probably goes, Bloomberg, Biden, Sanders, Pete/Warren (tied), Amy at this point.

I am also assuming that there will be voter suppression, fraud and Russian/other interference on the GOP side. The only way to have a fighting chance is with overwhelming turnout. It's a hell of a lot harder to cheat then. And I think that of all of the aforementioned group, Biden and Klobuchar would keep turnout the lowest, with Bloomberg likely there too.

Trump's current poll numbers are actually pretty good given what we're dealing with. Again, turnout is key.
 
the idea that joe biden "has no more baggage than what has already been thrown at him" is nuts.

trump is going to hammer him with ukraine/burisma/anita hall over and over and over again just as much as he would hammer sanders with socialism. biden is going to be on the defensive too if he's the nominee and i have far more confidence in sanders being able to push back effectively and counter-attack than i do in biden.
 
I am also assuming that there will be voter suppression, fraud and Russian/other interference on the GOP side. The only way to have a fighting chance is with overwhelming turnout. It's a hell of a lot harder to cheat then. And I think that of all of the aforementioned group, Biden and Klobuchar would keep turnout the lowest, with Bloomberg likely there too.

Trump's current poll numbers are actually pretty good given what we're dealing with. Again, turnout is key.

yeah, if bloomberg ends the nominee a lot of sanders voters will stay home. like it or not, leftists aren't voting for a billionaire who was a republican for years. we've seen it in this very thread.

if biden is the nominee i think this will be less of a problem IF his path to the nomination is fairly straightforward, ie he wins SC and takes the momentum into super tuesday and he and sanders go into the convention fairly close in pledged state delegates. if he ends up being the nominee due to some superdelegate convention shenanigans to steal the nomination from a clearly-leading sanders, it's a guaranteed trump victory, in addition to sending a very loud and very clear message to every american leftist that they'll never be given a share of legitimate power as long as the current political system exists, with all the consequences that would entail.
 
okay, refute what i said then. it shouldn't be that hard if i've gone so completely off the rails.
Ok. I'll keep it simple. There's a difference between government policy and sinking a tugboat full of women and children.
 
Ok. I'll keep it simple. There's a difference between government policy and sinking a tugboat full of women and children.

do you really want to go down this path of "deliberate killing of women and children automatically makes a government pure evil"?

because if so, oh boy am i ready to blow your mind about america.
 
do you really want to go down this path of "deliberate killing of women and children automatically makes a government pure evil"?

because if so, oh boy am i ready to blow your mind about america.
No because you're ducking and dodging and I'm going to allow you the privilege of carrying your horrible argument any further.
 
my "horrible argument" was literally just recounting historical facts, not a single one of which you've done anything at all to refute.

all i did was saw your "13 de marzo" and raised you one wounded knee and by the looks of it you're folding like a cheap suit. :shrug:

feel free to actually address anything i said and we can go from there.
 
the idea that joe biden "has no more baggage than what has already been thrown at him" is nuts.

trump is going to hammer him with ukraine/burisma/anita hall over and over and over again just as much as he would hammer sanders with socialism. biden is going to be on the defensive too if he's the nominee and i have far more confidence in sanders being able to push back effectively and counter-attack than i do in biden.

But that is the baggage that has already been thrown at him. Sorry, but moderates and soft Repubs don't care about Anita Hill. and 90% of them also know (as opposed to 2016) that Trump is a pathological liar and that the Biden/Burisma thing is bullshit. I also don't think he really want's to bring up what got him impeached. Plays great with his 35% base but will land like a thud with suburban voters.

The socialism thing is actually fresh. It was thrown at Obama and only the far right nut-jobs ran with that. But now you have someone saying - I'm a socialist. Soooo... not a smear, but a reiteration. And his self-made video clips of kind words for socialist leaders is a universe away from a theoretical conflict of interest with Biden's son.
Conflating how those two things and how they would play with the moderate, swingable voters is outlandish.
 
my "horrible argument" was literally just recounting historical facts, not a single one of which you've done anything at all to refute.

all i did was saw your "13 de marzo" and raised you one wounded knee and by the looks of it you're folding like a cheap suit. :shrug:

feel free to actually address anything i said and we can go from there.
I did and you pulled a "woah wait till you see what I have in store for you" card and I've simply lost interest in arguing with our resident Fidel Castro fan.
 
my "horrible argument" was literally just recounting historical facts, not a single one of which you've done anything at all to refute.

all i did was saw your "13 de marzo" and raised you one wounded knee and by the looks of it you're folding like a cheap suit. :shrug:

feel free to actually address anything i said and we can go from there.

Don't need to refute anything. You're ignoring my reply.

If you're explaining, you're losing.
If you make HD quality video spots of yourself praising Castro, you're losing.
If you think that some nuanced, "well he was terrible, BUT, he also had these good things..." You are losing.

And if you'd like Bernie to go out there and say how America is just as bad as countries under brutal, murderous leaders. By all means. Please have him do it at the debate tonight so he is no longer in contention for the nomination.

DaveC meet Politics. Policts, Dave C... please get acquainted.
 
last week i was the resident rudy giuliani fan and this week i'm the resident fidel castro fan. lmao dude just take the L and sit down.
 
Don't need to refute anything. You're ignoring my reply.



If you're explaining, you're losing.

If you make HD quality video spots of yourself praising Castro, you're losing.

If you think that some nuanced, "well he was terrible, BUT, he also had these good things..." You are losing.



And if you'd like Bernie to go out there and say how America is just as bad as countries under brutal, murderous leaders. By all means. Please have him do it at the debate tonight so he is no longer in contention for the nomination.



DaveC meet Politics. Policts, Dave C... please get acquainted.
But keep in mind, our health care challenges in America is the equivalent of killing 6 million Jews. And Hitler did do some good things.
 
Don't need to refute anything. You're ignoring my reply.

If you're explaining, you're losing.
If you make HD quality video spots of yourself praising Castro, you're losing.
If you think that some nuanced, "well he was terrible, BUT, he also had these good things..." You are losing.

And if you'd like Bernie to go out there and say how America is just as bad as countries under brutal, murderous leaders. By all means. Please have him do it at the debate tonight so he is no longer in contention for the nomination.

DaveC meet Politics. Policts, Dave C... please get acquainted.

yes that's totally the script i wrote for bernie and i want him to spend his time on the campaign trail talking about cuba. i definitely didn't already make it abundantly clear that i was just writing that myself as a semi-lighthearted tongue-in-cheek post about history. in fact i'm going to print that post off and mail it to the sanders campaign office right now so that he has time to practice it for tonight.
 
All I see with all the bickering and |insert group| will stay home if |insert nominee| is the nominee is that people are really okay with Donald Trump.
 
well, i'm certainly not forcing you to read my posts. feel free anytime to go back to your usual routine of wishing fatal illnesses on people you don't know.
 
All I see with all the bickering and |insert group| will stay home if |insert nominee| is the nominee is that people are really okay with Donald Trump.

Eh, it's always like this. Will people really stay home in droves on either side of the issue. No, not really.

What is more in contention is -

Will young voters stay home if Biden is the nom. Sure some will not be energized to go

Will Older voters, suburban women, and swing repubs stay home if Bernie is nominated - yeah, probably some will

Will progressive, younger, voters stay home for Bloomberg. Sure, some will

We also have to refocus this in the lens of going against Trump.

It remains that 60-70% of Dems number one priority is removing Trump. So this is a vote driver that didn't even exist 4 years ago.

Within the party, if progressives stay home because Bloomberg wins, then that's privileged as shit IMO. But I expect that most actually won't if they really think about 4 more of Trump.

Will moderates stay home because of Bernie. I highly doubt this, and would shitty of them as well. You can say a lot about moderates, but one thing they will do is show up to vote for someone with a D next to their name.

There's a lot to happen in the next couple months. Things will get crazy and heated. It will settle down and focus in the summer/fall.
 
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yes that's totally the script i wrote for bernie and i want him to spend his time on the campaign trail talking about cuba. i definitely didn't already make it abundantly clear that i was just writing that myself as a semi-lighthearted tongue-in-cheek post about history. in fact i'm going to print that post off and mail it to the sanders campaign office right now so that he has time to practice it for tonight.

Would it hurt for you to ever concede that maybe, just maybe Sanders could tweak his approach a bit? That after winning a huge victory in NV, that going on national TV and making some positive comments on Castro, was well, really stupid and easily avoided?
That at some point he has to consider not being a one note, island of a candidate, but to actually connect with the party he is running for the nomination of?

I concede Biden's and Warren's weakness and fuck-ups all the time. They are just people to me. I have no allegiance. I think it would help more people to approach political figures this way.
I like Sanders enough to vote and probably donate to him in the general. But I would be so much more open to happily backing Sanders if he just made some reach to the millions of longtime Dems. Or to the voters that just delivered us the Congress.
 
It remains that 60-70% of Dems number one priority is removing Trump. So this is a vote driver that didn't even exist 4 years ago.




This fact is the one remaining thing that gives me hope. EVERYONE thought Hillary would win, so I think some of our more self-absorbed voters flattered themselves with protest votes. As if voting for Stein were a virtue signal.

Hopefully, that’s all gone now. And no one will take Wisconsin for granted. Ans keeping in mind that Twump threaded some kind of electoral needle that isn’t at all weird.
 
Would it hurt for you to ever concede that maybe, just maybe Sanders could tweak his approach a bit? That after winning a huge victory in NV, that going on national TV and making some positive comments on Castro, was well, really stupid and easily avoided?
That at some point he has to consider not being a one note, island of a candidate, but to actually connect with the party he is running for the nomination of?

I concede Biden's and Warren's weakness and fuck-ups all the time. They are just people to me. I have no allegiance. I think it would help more people to approach political figures this way.
I like Sanders enough to vote and probably donate to him in the general. But I would be so much more open to happily backing Sanders if he just made some reach to the millions of longtime Dems. Or to the voters that just delivered us the Congress.

i don't recall being asked prior to this to concede that sanders could tweak his approach a bit, but yes of course he could and he should, especially if he continues to build a lead and has to pivot his message to the general electorate and not just democrats in certain states. what i've been trying to get at today is that the answer on castro wasn't necessarily wrong per se if you get the point he was trying to make, but it was very tone deaf and he'll need to work on that going forward. i'm sure it'll get brought up at the debate tonight and i'm very interested to see how he responds.
 
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Trump openly commented that America has done just as bad things as those dictators and didn't face any backlash for those comments. Of course, the plays by different rules. So do the GOP.

They're the party that can storm into a SCIF with personal devices and face no penalty, where if the Dems (or any of us) did that same move, you bet we'd all face some form of legal consequence.

Bernie's admiration of communist/socialist dictators will absolutely hurt him in the election. Trump and the GOP will run ads 24/7 on that.

Let's also not forget what the GOP are going to do with Bernie's sexual fantasy essays. I actually don't give a shit about anything fictional he wrote, but it won't be framed that way to the voters.

Again, no one cares that Trump is a pedo rapist, but you can bet the country will care that Bernie wrote some racy things about women
 
well, i'm certainly not forcing you to read my posts. feel free anytime to go back to your usual routine of wishing fatal illnesses on people you don't know.
I'm going to stop the conversation here, but I'll say this. In retrospect, that was a very bad moment and a bad look for me. I apologized for it as well as my comments the following day. I was going through some personal items but that's not a good excuse. It was unacceptable.

The fact that you felt the need to bring it up again because we disagree on a topic is something that everyone will read and now judge you on.
 
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