US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of - Page 48 - U2 Feedback

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Old 03-05-2020, 02:33 PM   #941
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facts: Bernie is less popular now than he was 4 years ago, regardless of whether or not there's 2 people in the race or 12. he did not deliver on promised results in exactly the place where he was expected to. this was supposed to be his big moment when he was supposed to deliver as the front runner in the biggest and most important blue state and what should have been the heart of Bernie country. he has a ceiling that i correctly predicted at roughly 30-35% ... in the state where he was expected to dominate.
You can call WHATEVER you want “facts.” You can’t back up your statement about popularity at all. I have NO clue what you’re talking about him not delivering IN CALIFORNIA. He’s about to win the state by almost 10%. Youre making an argument that the first place finisher, in a two person race, can’t claim 19% of the remaining votes. THINK ABOUT THAT. You’re saying that less than 3 in 10 people who didn’t pick Biden or Sanders would pick Sanders. In California. THINK. ABOUT. THAT. Holy crap. I can’t believe I have to write that. Because 3 in 10 would do the trick to be at his 2016 numbers. That’s it.

And I have no clue what you’re talking about. HE HIT HIS POLLING TARGETS IN CALIFORNIA EXACTLY.

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Like, I don’t understand how you’re not seeing that.

You correctly predicted a ceiling. Give me a break dude. You’re just making fake statements now. You have no way of backing that statement up. The only way to test his ceiling is to run him against 1 candidate. Oh, we’ve seen that before. In 2016.
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Old 03-05-2020, 02:37 PM   #942
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Very good post on all points. Maybe VP would be the better choice to see if she could spring board it into a presidential run.

...
Plus considering Uncle Joe's age, he might choose to be a single term Prez if elected making Harris the front runner in 2024 if she were VP,
 
plus you know the fact that he might not even make it 4 years and she would become Prez that way


If she still has Presidential aspirations, I think taking VP slot under Biden if he gets the nomination would be a good move.
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Old 03-05-2020, 02:41 PM   #943
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Of all the candidates, interestingly enough Warren supporters had the highest % who would "vote blue no matter who." These are not your revolutionaries and I think people totally misunderstand who most of her demographic is comprised of.
You've always had great insight on this.
My best understanding is that she does best with middle class educated, white professionals, leaning well to the female side, but also does well with college educated men.
I think her base is best described as a blend of liberal to moderate, more than "progressive". And I think she just has a strong backing of strong, feminist women, who were also strong supporters of Clinton.
She has that band of the middle class where they are fortunate enough to have decent jobs and a roof over their head, but they also know that they are being squeezed more and more just to sustain their current lifestyle, and ensure their kids can do better.

She also worked incredibly hard to get minority support, and did make gains, but with Bernie on one side getting all the youth minority vote and Biden getting the 40+ minority vote, she struggled.

I hope she continues to do great things.
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Old 03-05-2020, 02:43 PM   #944
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Bernie just shouted at a reporter - " Don't believe what you read in the media" sigh...
He might as well just go with "Fake news!" and make the transition complete.
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Old 03-05-2020, 02:43 PM   #945
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Plus considering Uncle Joe's age, he might choose to be a single term Prez if elected making Harris the front runner in 2024 if she were VP,
 
plus you know the fact that he might not even make it 4 years and she would become Prez that way


If she still has Presidential aspirations, I think taking VP slot under Biden if he gets the nomination would be a good move.
Oh yeah, I've thought about this as well. I could absolutely see a handoff from Biden to the VP in 2024. And Harris would be a great choice. (so would Warren)
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Old 03-05-2020, 02:46 PM   #946
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I get that it's frustrating for Bernie supporters to see long-term Dem elected officials endorse Biden. But that frustration has been cultivated and stoked by Bernie, by lumping them all together into this "establishment" category, giving the very intentional label of being somehow, untrustworthy, not on the same team, etc...

This is another example of Sanders using tactics that create a smaller, but very strong base, but in the end, it's also what keeps him from succeeding.



Here though is the difference between 16 and 20.



Clinton endorsements were I believe in the hundreds by this point in the race. "superdelegates" were already saying they were behind Clinton, There were obvious slights to Bernie along the way.



Not so this time. Biden was looked at with skepticism getting into the race, was doubted all along, was completely left for dead after NH, and had maybe a handful of endorsements from Congresspeople. I think fewer endorsements than Bernie. Bernie was talked about with much more respect and seriousness the whole way. He was the one to beat.



It took Biden actually proving himself in NV and SC, and the voters, NOT the DNC, or establishment put him there. Black voters in SC did. Black voters, educated women, suburban voters, and yes, a fairly broad swath of old/middle/young, professional and working class to get him to frontrunner on Super Tuesday.

Not only did he have to prove himself to voters, but he had to win big enough to win over the other candidates running. And show them, that he was the one to carry on. Pete and Amy of course should have dropped. And their endorsement wasn't going to Biden because he's "establishment" - but because they align policy wise, and they want Trump gone, and they want the Senate.



It turns out that in 16, there was a LARGE block of voters that were not really voting FOR bernie, as they were against Clinton. This has become clear. Also, the whole premise of just getting Trump out, doesn't help Sanders this time either.



But given all that, this time, the "establishment" had nothing to do with Biden's rise.



Bernie surrogates still saying it over and over, may be doing more harm than good this time. It's like when Trump lies about something over and over that people know isn't true. It just drives moderate voters more against him.
Great post all around. Nailed it.
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Old 03-05-2020, 02:49 PM   #947
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He might as well just go with "Fake news!" and make the transition complete.


It is very cringey for him to go down that path.
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Old 03-05-2020, 03:14 PM   #948
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You’re saying that less than 3 in 10 people who didn’t pick Biden or Sanders would pick Sanders. In California. THINK. ABOUT. THAT. Holy crap. I can’t believe I have to write that. Because 3 in 10 would do the trick to be at his 2016 numbers. That’s it.

correct. basically, you're voting for Sanders or you're not, which is how it will be moving forward. his numbers would not reach 47% even in a two person race, which is less than 2016.

Bloomberg and Warren are currently at 14% and 12%. if he got half the Warren votes that's 6%. let's pretend Pete doesn't exist. i'll give Bernie half the Buttigeig votes -- that's 3%. we're not yet to 10%.

the other fact: he will get less delegates out of CA this year than he did in 2016.



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The only way to test his ceiling is to run him against 1 candidate. Oh, we’ve seen that before. In 2016.

the point about the lack of Sanders crossover votes has been made, but you're right, we don't really yet know, so i guess we'll see.

Bernie was above 35% in ... Colorado (36%) and Vermont (50%). he was below 30% in more states than that.

sounds like a ceiling to me.
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Old 03-05-2020, 03:20 PM   #949
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Here comes the youth turnout to save the day

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Old 03-05-2020, 03:39 PM   #950
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the other fact: he will get less delegates out of CA this year than he did in 2016.











sounds like a ceiling to me.

I can’t deal with you right now. This is like listening to an alternative facts monologue by Sean Hannity.

Congratulations, he did get fewer delegates in CA than he did in 2016. Because 4 major candidates were active, 3 additional were active for the early voting, there were with 19 total candidates (13 of which appeared on debate stages).

In 2016, there were 7 on the ballot. And 2 who appeared on the debate stage.
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Old 03-05-2020, 03:42 PM   #951
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Just another example of a trend I'm noticing. This is a big time Warren supporter that I check the Twitter feed of every once in a while - middle aged, probably middle class white guy from NY.

https://twitter.com/mmpadellan/statu...54645075288064

Sorry, this tweet, but also please look at the replies to this tweet. That's what I'm getting at. The Warren to Biden crossover seems real.
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Old 03-05-2020, 03:58 PM   #952
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I can’t deal with you right now. This is like listening to an alternative facts monologue by Sean Hannity.

Congratulations, he did get fewer delegates in CA than he did in 2016. Because 4 major candidates were active, 3 additional were active for the early voting, there were with 19 total candidates (13 of which appeared on debate stages).

In 2016, there were 7 on the ballot. And 2 who appeared on the debate stage.


I wrote a long response and deleted it because I like and respect you and I feel like you’re missing the point. I’ll leave it at that.
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Old 03-05-2020, 03:59 PM   #953
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Just another example of a trend I'm noticing. This is a big time Warren supporter that I check the Twitter feed of every once in a while - middle aged, probably middle class white guy from NY.

https://twitter.com/mmpadellan/statu...54645075288064

Sorry, this tweet, but also please look at the replies to this tweet. That's what I'm getting at. The Warren to Biden crossover seems real.




The Warren folks are super pissed at how the Bros have turned on them with their not so surprising pivot to misogyny.

As they continue to misunderstand the Warren voter.
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Old 03-05-2020, 04:08 PM   #954
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I wrote a long response and deleted it because I like and respect you and I feel like you’re missing the point. I’ll leave it at that.


Well I appreciate it and just know that my flamboyant posts don’t mean I don’t like you as well. Just get frustrated.
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Old 03-05-2020, 04:40 PM   #955
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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...230829568?s=21

Thank you Mike
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Old 03-05-2020, 04:55 PM   #956
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Good .
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Old 03-05-2020, 05:33 PM   #957
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He's doing it cause he's just like Trump
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Old 03-05-2020, 05:33 PM   #958
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Excellent.
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Old 03-05-2020, 05:52 PM   #959
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Glad to see Bloomberg getting right to business.

Question on another topic...

If Biden wins the nom.

What about Val Demings for VP? She doesn't always thrill me, but she surely checks every box that any candidate would be looking for. Female, African American, popular in her home state of Florida, has had significant national attention, can debate, great speaker and has major clout with law enforcement community.
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Old 03-05-2020, 06:00 PM   #960
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I have to imagine it will be someone from a swing state.
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