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Old 03-03-2020, 11:14 PM   #801
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Lol but it’s not. I mean, it is in places that it was supposed to. Massachusetts and Minnesota were big swings for sure. The rest are as expected. Bernie looks like he over-performed in Colorado and perhaps Utah (to be seen) and maybe Texas.

These results are critical to the Sanders campaign, as clearly they were his stronghold.
lol ok
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:39 PM   #802
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TX is about to come home for Biden. Same day vote is showing about a 25% shift from early voting numbers in large metro and suburban areas.

Ps. That’s the new demo that Biden brings that can bring Trump down. Not the 18-29 vote.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:40 PM   #803
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:44 PM   #804
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if you like it when two angry grandpas from either side of the family yell incoherent nonsense at each other over family gatherings, oh boy are you going to love the debates coming up in the next six months.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:47 PM   #805
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if you like it when two angry grandpas from either side of the family yell incoherent nonsense at each other over family gatherings, oh boy are you going to love the debates coming up in the next six months.
because the alternative was a smooth talking youngster
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:48 PM   #806
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And Biden got these numbers with a little over a million spent.

And god yes DaveC. Bernie Biden debate.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:49 PM   #807
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lol ok


I don’t understand how you’re disputing this.

Results are current as of this post.

For Biden-Sanders...

Alabama: 40-18
Actual: 62-16 @58%

California: 22-31
Actual: ???

Colorado: 18-27
Actual: 22-36 @83%

Maine: 21-31
Actual: 33-33 @66%

Massachusetts: 18-24
Actual: 33-27 @84%

Minnesota: 18-26
Actual: 38-30 @71%

North Carolina: 35-22
Actual: 43-24 @87%

Oklahoma: 31-22
Actual: 38-25 @78%

Tennessee: 29-25
Actual: 43-24 @70%

Texas: 25-28
Actual: 27-29 @51%

Utah: 20-26
Actual: 18-32 @70%

Vermont: 10-53
Actual: 22-51 @96%

Virginia: 40-21
Actual: 53-23 @99%


Almost every trend is following, but there’s a noticeable uptick in Biden support at the expense of Bloomberg. And so if you follow that 538 link, we are probably looking at a Biden surge (the pink). Looking at just how valuable California and Texas are, you can quickly see how the pink 614-445 (which assumes Biden wins Texas and California) can quickly end up 550-500 in favor of those results are flip flopped.

Of course this is all hand waving because we don’t actually have the delegate sums from almost all of the states, which aren’t directly proportional to vote counts in some or most states. It could end up being a total blowout, I’m not entirely familiar with each state’s rules.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:50 PM   #808
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because the alternative was a smooth talking youngster
yes i too recall buttigieg being an option.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:54 PM   #809
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TX is about to come home for Biden.
It's looking that way
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:55 PM   #810
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if you like it when two angry grandpas from either side of the family yell incoherent nonsense at each other over family gatherings, oh boy are you going to love the debates coming up in the next six months.


Totally. It’s going to be awful.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:02 AM   #811
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Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
I don’t understand how you’re disputing this.

Results are current as of this post.

For Biden-Sanders...

Alabama: 40-18
Actual: 62-16 @58%

California: 22-31
Actual: ???

Colorado: 18-27
Actual: 22-36 @83%

Maine: 21-31
Actual: 33-33 @66%

Massachusetts: 18-24
Actual: 33-27 @84%

Minnesota: 18-26
Actual: 38-30 @71%

North Carolina: 35-22
Actual: 43-24 @87%

Oklahoma: 31-22
Actual: 38-25 @78%

Tennessee: 29-25
Actual: 43-24 @70%

Texas: 25-28
Actual: 27-29 @51%

Utah: 20-26
Actual: 18-32 @70%

Vermont: 10-53
Actual: 22-51 @96%

Virginia: 40-21
Actual: 53-23 @99%


Almost every trend is following, but there’s a noticeable uptick in Biden support at the expense of Bloomberg. And so if you follow that 538 link, we are probably looking at a Biden surge (the pink). Looking at just how valuable California and Texas are, you can quickly see how the pink 614-445 (which assumes Biden wins Texas and California) can quickly end up 550-500 in favor of those results are flip flopped.

Of course this is all hand waving because we don’t actually have the delegate sums from almost all of the states, which aren’t directly proportional to vote counts in some or most states. It could end up being a total blowout, I’m not entirely familiar with each state’s rules.
The difference is that In reality, 2 weeks ago, Biden May have won 5 of these states. Bernie was being spoken of like the presumptive nominee, a freight train that couldn’t be stopped.
If Sanders was so appealing, then Pete and Amy voters could have flocked to him. But they didn’t.
Bloomberg is actually still heavily eating into Biden’s numbers tonight, which makes it all the more impressive.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:13 AM   #812
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The difference is that In reality, 2 weeks ago, Biden May have won 5 of these states. Bernie was being spoken of like the presumptive nominee, a freight train that couldn’t be stopped.

If Sanders was so appealing, then Pete and Amy voters could have flocked to him. But they didn’t.

Bloomberg is actually still heavily eating into Biden’s numbers tonight, which makes it all the more impressive.


Coming up the last three days, everyone who is anyone has been talking about the tremendous Biden surge and the unification of the vote.

Your statement about Amy and Pete voters “flocking” to Sanders is hilarious. We all knew that was never going to happen, hence the repeated discussion about whether or not Warren’s votes would go to Sanders.

Yes I agree that Bloomberg is eating into Biden’s numbers, but versus polling it’s most definitely Biden eating into Bloomberg’s numbers. Bernie is not faring the same way with Elizabeth Warren, whose voters have stayed somewhat loyal.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:27 AM   #813
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One nice thing we learned tonight: money can’t buy you everything.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:28 AM   #814
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Biden will win Texas, albeit by a small margin
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:29 AM   #815
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One nice thing we learned tonight: money can’t buy you everything.
It can't protect you from being curb stomped by Liz Warren, but it can buy a jet ski.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:37 AM   #816
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It can't protect you from being curb stomped by Liz Warren, but it can buy a jet ski.


And it can win you Napa and Aspen.

And American Samoa.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:42 AM   #817
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Also: Bernie’s performance in 2016 was less about Bernie and more that there was something wrong with Hillary.

People on both sidesreally hated her. I still don’t get it, but they really, really did.
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Old 03-04-2020, 01:01 AM   #818
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Biden will win Texas, albeit by a small margin


Impossible. I was told for months that Bernie was going to win TX both in primary and flip it blue.

There’s a revolution happening!!

Shame no one turned out to vote for it.

And that’s the sad truth. If we are to believe they Bernie can beat Trump, then he needs to first beat a Democrat.
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Old 03-04-2020, 02:05 AM   #819
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Lol but it’s not. I mean, it is in places that it was supposed to. Massachusetts and Minnesota were big swings for sure. The rest are as expected. Bernie looks like he over-performed in Colorado and perhaps Utah (to be seen) and maybe Texas.

These results are critical to the Sanders campaign, as clearly they were his stronghold.
In 2016:
Utah
Sanders 80% Clinton 20%
2020:
Sanders 35% Biden 17%


Colorado
Sanders 60% Clinton 40%
2020:
Sanders 36%. Biden 23%

I think Bernie underperformed in Utah, and did slightly better in Colorado. going by this years polling. But it shows the dramatic drop in support from 2016.

And it should be noted that Bloomberg did well in these two states. 21 in CO 17 in UT.
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Old 03-04-2020, 02:56 AM   #820
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In 2016:

Utah

Sanders 80% Clinton 20%

2020:

Sanders 35% Biden 17%





Colorado

Sanders 60% Clinton 40%

2020:

Sanders 36%. Biden 23%



I think Bernie underperformed in Utah, and did slightly better in Colorado. going by this years polling. But it shows the dramatic drop in support from 2016.



And it should be noted that Bloomberg did well in these two states. 21 in CO 17 in UT.


I don’t know why you’re continuing to push the notion that many Elizabeth Warren voters aren’t for Bernie, and that all Bloomberg voters are never-Bernie.

Your claim is ridiculous enough that if I were to say it from the opposite side, “Utah just lost their appetite for moderates across the years.”
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