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Old 03-03-2020, 04:28 PM   #721
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You keep sayin 20-25% but he keeps polling 25-30%.

I’m not sure what you’re doing.
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Old 03-03-2020, 04:37 PM   #722
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less than 3 hours to go until we get to see what $500 million going up in flames looks like!
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Old 03-03-2020, 04:48 PM   #723
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Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
Perhaps they, I dunno, don't like Bernie. Shocking I know. He's such a loveable old curmudgeon.
Who doesn't love their Grandpa yelling about the same thing over and over?
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Old 03-03-2020, 04:52 PM   #724
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I could be proved wrong tonight, but that’s why I corrected your 40-45% to 20-25% because I think Bernie has a ceiling in this race. I think he became the interesting, anti-establishment Not Hillary in 2016, whereas 4 years later who he is is clear ... like Trump ... and now, 4 years later, no one else who hasn’t gotten on board is going to get on board.

Unless he wins the nomination. Then I think most, but not all, will get on board.


https://twitter.com/pbump/status/123...787733505?s=21

We’ll see about the numbers after tonight but there isn’t any evidence of a revolution. People know who Bernie is and he hit his ceiling

Doesn’t matter if everyone in CA votes for him. We need to see turnout across the board and so far it’s not happening
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:02 PM   #725
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US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of

.
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:03 PM   #726
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You keep sayin 20-25% but he keeps polling 25-30%.

I’m not sure what you’re doing.


Wow. That’s a huge difference. I’m way off.

And it’s still 10% down from 2016.
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:05 PM   #727
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Wow. That’s a huge difference. I’m way off.

And it’s still 10% down from 2016.


Ok and Elizabeth Warren is polling at like 15%, Bloomberg still exists, and Tulsi-tin-foil is consistently hugging onto 1-2%.

What makes you think that ZERO of these voters go to Sanders?
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:26 PM   #728
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Ok and Elizabeth Warren is polling at like 15%, Bloomberg still exists, and Tulsi-tin-foil is consistently hugging onto 1-2%.

What makes you think that ZERO of these voters go to Sanders?


I don’t think it’s ZERO, but I don’t think it’s even half. Especially not the Bloombie folks.
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:27 PM   #729
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https://twitter.com/pbump/status/123...787733505?s=21

We’ll see about the numbers after tonight but there isn’t any evidence of a revolution. People know who Bernie is and he hit his ceiling

Doesn’t matter if everyone in CA votes for him. We need to see turnout across the board and so far it’s not happening
Yeah, this is becoming the trend, but we'll see what tonight brings. So far, the biggest turnout surge was in South Carolina where Biden won by almost 30 points.

i do think it shows the fragility of Sanders support above his core base. Sanders won (pretty much) the first 3 primaries. Biden was written off as dead.
Biden wins South Carolina big, and that alone propels him to the lead again nationally, up to the top or top 2 of all the super tuesday states, and a surge of money and meaningful endorsements .

It just shows that there were a lot of voters out there just waiting for the moment to know that there was another candidate - ANY other candidate than Bernie who looked solid enough to get behind.
Bloomberg was that person for a couple weeks. Until he hit the debate stage. Then it was Biden. To see 10 to 20 point shifts in polling over one week for Biden shows the appetite people had to finally get behind a viable non-Bernie candidate.
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:33 PM   #730
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Ok and Elizabeth Warren is polling at like 15%, Bloomberg still exists, and Tulsi-tin-foil is consistently hugging onto 1-2%.

What makes you think that ZERO of these voters go to Sanders?
Lets say Bloomberg has about 15%, Warren has 15% and Tulsi has 1

My best guess is that Bloomberg voters would head to biden by about 90%
Warren I think would be about 50-50 to Biden/Sanders
Tulsi probably all to Sanders

So in the end maybe 20 points to Biden to 11 for Sanders

Just my opinion.

Anyone think that Warren is staying in as long as possible to just fuck with Bernie?
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:55 PM   #731
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I don’t think it’s ZERO, but I don’t think it’s even half. Especially not the Bloombie folks.


I would wager it’s a safe estimate to think that l 7-10% of those voters for Warren would go for Bernie. I also think you can count on the ~1-2% Tulsi all being willing to go for Bernie. And some tiny (but not insignificant) amount of the Bloom going to Sanders.

And surprise, that tallies up to 40-45%.

I don’t know why you’re arguing that the left of the Democratic Party isn’t a sizable minority. Blows my mind... the more you plug your ears and tune it out, the louder it is going to get.
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Old 03-03-2020, 06:02 PM   #732
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...uesday/264496/
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Old 03-03-2020, 06:03 PM   #733
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Don't underestimate the power of the suburbs

52% of Americans live in suburbs.

So when you are seeing very large increases in voter turnout in suburbs across the country, like in 2018 midterms. or now this year, as we saw Pete compete in IA and NH because of suburbs. Now Super Tuesday, reporting of increased suburban turnout, some almost double of 2016 in places like TX, and VA, and NC...

When that is the bulk of the electorate, those shifts make really big differences.
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Old 03-03-2020, 06:08 PM   #734
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Old 03-03-2020, 06:43 PM   #735
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US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
I would wager it’s a safe estimate to think that l 7-10% of those voters for Warren would go for Bernie. I also think you can count on the ~1-2% Tulsi all being willing to go for Bernie. And some tiny (but not insignificant) amount of the Bloom going to Sanders.

And surprise, that tallies up to 40-45%.

I don’t know why you’re arguing that the left of the Democratic Party isn’t a sizable minority. Blows my mind... the more you plug your ears and tune it out, the louder it is going to get.




Sanders doesn’t comprise the entirety of “the left” of the Democratic Party.

But if you’d like to be pedantic over loose estimates of +/- 10% in a primary with multiple candidates, go right ahead.

I think Bernie will struggle to break 35% in most states. Especially given that exit polls seem to be showing the 18-29 vote at about 13% of the electorate.
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:06 PM   #736
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Virginia called instantly for Biden

Vermont for Sanders
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:19 PM   #737
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Sanders doesn’t comprise the entirety of “the left” of the Democratic Party.

But if you’d like to be pedantic over loose estimates of +/- 10% in a primary with multiple candidates, go right ahead.

I think Bernie will struggle to break 35% in most states. Especially given that exit polls seem to be showing the 18-29 vote at about 13% of the electorate.


I’m pretty sure if you trace this back, this didn’t start with Sanders’ name on it.

In which case I’m still even willing to continue to defend the idea that Sanders indeed does get 40-45% in a head to head.
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:23 PM   #738
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This is really the heart of it. I’m sure I’m annoying. But my main point is that, as with much of the Trump base, for SOME Sanders folks, literally EVERYTHING is viewed through a conspiratorial lens of establishment vs Bernie. It’s what fucking sucks about the internet, and it’s also how disinformation works — nothing is objective, there’s always truth behind “truth,” and it’s all up for demagoguery.

Obviously it’s not LN7. But to think that this mindset hasn’t become one of the top 3-4 defining characteristics of the Sanders campaign — whether he likes it or not — is delusional.
OK. Let's remember Irving said
some Sanders supporters. This ties back into something my sis said to me last night while we were talking about who we would vote for in the NYS primary. In regards to Bernie; she doesn't really like him, but she loves AOC. I follow politics more than her, but she does as well.

We endured 1968, and McGovern's devastating loss in '72, and have been steadily voting, talking, matching and off and on volunteering for (not neo) liberal, and progressive ideas, actions and aspirations for decades.

IShe told me she doesn't like some Bernie bros. She called them arrogant, and something else. I said "they're not all like that". She replied, "the loudest ones are".
THAT rang a bell with me that seems to highlight some of wf and Irving's concerns.

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I am admittedly bitter, but what really riles me up is that the woman who in my view is the most intelligent candidate (Mayor Pete being the only one in the same stratosphere IMO), with progressive views and policies, though also a sensible dose of pragmatism, was destroyed because she dared (!) suggest a 3-year-transition to M4A and was "dumb" enough to actually do the math and own it. So to hell with her, she's the establishment sell out with a giant ego and a liar and just won't bow out of this race like she is supposed to!

And what would be the most hilarious part of this, if it weren't so sad, is that thee absolute inflexibility of the far left to even consider anyone beyond Sanders may very well result in a Joe freaking Biden candidacy - a senile old man without a single creative or progressive idea, who still thinks that working with the current crop of Republicans is where we need to be and whose entire run would be considered a joke if we were living in any other time.

Mind boggling.

I hear ya!

I think Joe might have some progressivism in him, but hes not highlighting it. As for working across the aisle, i certainly don't think it's going to revert way back as much as Biden thinks it will.

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Warren was far and away my favorite candidate as well, easily the most qualified and sensible in the race IMO. What has happened to her is a travesty for many of the reasons you note. I'm not going to blame any one candidate's support group, but rather just that the country as a whole is not yet ready to accept a female president, which is also depressing.
This.

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I completely agree with you that the country as a whole is not yet ready to accept a female President (despite Hillary winning the popular vote), and for me that is beyond depressing. The double standard for behavior, personality traits, and all kinds of other traits and issues is very alive and well. Seen constantly with all the Democratic candidates this election season.
This, too.

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We also pay more in income taxes - the largest single component of our income taxes goes to healthcare expenses.

But don't forget the absolute hysterical months of hounding Elizabeth Warren (from idiots like Chris Matthews) demanding that she publicly admit that people's taxes are going up. When she explained that total costs would be down, that was branded as dishonest.

But if you are a working person and have a budget, your funds are always fungible - what does it matter that your taxes are going up by $200 if your premium goes down by $400?

Are people really so stupid as to not be able to grasp that?
I guess some are?

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Buh bye Chris Matthews, you've always had a creepy vibe. Can only imagine what's left to be revealed.
Without cable tv i've caught him rarely so i don't know vibe wise.
He did write the most extraordinary book on R(Bobby)FK just a few years ago. as a kid Bobby ended up having to hide a deeply compassionate, kind nature because his father hated it. It really in general only began to resurface a few years after his brother JFK was assassinated.

I can never write him totally off, but if he deserves some kind of comeuppance for workplace harassment of women there- then he should get it.

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Originally Posted by MrsSpringsteen View Post
Going back to things said before, women are just expected to be more "likable" and as smart as she is Senator Warren is just not likable enough for some people. Lol, the fool we have now is not likable at all...unless you are like him or just into that sort of thing for reasons unknown. Where's the likability test for Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg?

Remember "you're likable enough Hillary"? Said in a snide sort of way by none other than Barack Obama. Yes it was a debate and I guess he thought it was a cool one liner.

I follow Sen Warren on Instagram, have followed all the candidates. It's endless comments that she needs to drop out and endorse Bernie or we will get Biden and it will be her fault.
wow (last paragraph)

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I felt a Warren / Buttigieg ticket would be a terrific cross section of the party - two incredibly intelligent people who could really work too get something done.

Of course their intelligence would be used against them in a general, which is incredibly sad but also true
hoo, boy.
My thought about intelligence is-
intelligence without compassion, and the ability of putting yourself in another's shoes;that is very dangerous.

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Fucking this.
Heh, in my case, I don't even fit the highly educated/professional/etc. mold of many of her supporters. At most, I did one year of community college, and all the jobs I've had have been typical customer service type stuff.

I've just always liked Warren because she's smart, experienced, tough, and I feel like she could really whip her administration into shape. I think she can strike a good balance between compromise and sticking to her principles in ways that I don't know Bernie or Biden would do quite as easily (Biden might be TOO compromising, Bernie might be TOO stubborn).

I do agree with LN, though, that it would make sense to see Warren voters go to Bernie, as I think they tend to be more aligned in terms of their progressiveness and whatnot. Between Biden and Bernie I personally would lean more towards Bernie.

That said...


I also think this is very true. It's kind of ridiculous that it'd have to take a specific Democratic candidate to make people decide to vote for that party over Trump-I would think at this point ANY candidate would be far more appealing to the middle and even whatever moderate Republicans are left over Trump.

But if Biden's the one who can help pry those voters away and bring them to our side, then hey, great. Should Biden get the nomination, let's run with that, then.
Tending to agree. Like your TOO compromising Biden, or TOO stubborn Bernie comment!

And Irving's comment about you is on the money.
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:28 PM   #739
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Virginia called instantly for Biden



Vermont for Sanders


A win for sleepy joe


https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status...875801600?s=21
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:32 PM   #740
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Please leave Trump given nicknames out of this.
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