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Old 03-03-2020, 08:45 AM   #701
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Going back to things said before, women are just expected to be more "likable" and as smart as she is Senator Warren is just not likable enough for some people. Lol, the fool we have now is not likable at all...unless you are like him or just into that sort of thing for reasons unknown. Where's the likability test for Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg?

Remember "you're likable enough Hillary"? Said in a snide sort of way by none other than Barack Obama. Yes it was a debate and I guess he thought it was a cool one liner.

I follow Sen Warren on Instagram, have followed all the candidates. It's endless comments that she needs to drop out and endorse Bernie or we will get Biden and it will be her fault.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:05 AM   #702
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It’s interesting how she’s the unanimous choice of my highest educated friends — I think we all tend to want people who we relate to culturally. She is absolutely a product of academia, much like Obama. I’m very sorry that isn’t translating into votes. I agreed with the earlier comment that she and Pete are the smartest people on the stage — there’s no question they have the biggest intellectual capacities. But presidenting — and leadership in general — isn’t about being the smartest person in the room, it’s about getting the smartest people in the room to do what you want them to do.

So here we are. If I were voting today, I’d still probably vote Warren, but my head tells me that, today, Biden has the best chance against Trump, especially with a good VP.

A good friend who lives in the immediate Philly ‘burbs — one of those liberal arts advanced degree friends — said that the Trump voter in her morning running group would vote for Biden over Trump. And so there, in an anecdote, is how I think this is won. Picking off the middle and the Trump voters who are queasy after 4 years of batshit tweets who also aren’t so rich and mercenary that they vote however their stocks tell them to vote.
I felt a Warren / Buttigieg ticket would be a terrific cross section of the party - two incredibly intelligent people who could really work too get something done.

Of course their intelligence would be used against them in a general, which is incredibly sad but also true
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:15 AM   #703
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Elizabeth Warren’s would be steamrolled by the right for her ivory tower image.
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Old 03-03-2020, 10:08 AM   #704
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https://twitter.com/HistoryMuppet/st...67839637225472
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Old 03-03-2020, 10:10 AM   #705
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And yet a candidate who openly praised communist dictators and countries wouldn’t ?

It’s really sad that Warren never took off, or that she tanked after giving specifics to her plans

All she had to say was Canada would pay for it all and she’d be in the lead.

I’m voting for Warren here in Cali. Primary is for who you want, then support who it ends up being
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Old 03-03-2020, 10:10 AM   #706
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So here we are. If I were voting today, I’d still probably vote Warren, but my head tells me that, today, Biden has the best chance against Trump, especially with a good VP.
I think that it's a mistake for the Bernie fans to assume that all of Warren's votes would go his way.

I've said before that I personally know a number who were hoping that Bloomberg would save them, but after he shat the bed, all those people shifted to Biden.

They are mostly upper middle class, high income earners.
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Old 03-03-2020, 10:38 AM   #707
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I haven’t a clue why you think they wouldn’t go to Bernie.

Loosely put, if you sum it up...

Sanders + Warren + wildcards = 2016 Bernie
Biden + Bloomberg + wildcards = 2016 Hilary

Sure, not every Warren voter will flip for Sanders, just like not every Bloomberg voter is going to vote for Biden. But those are edge cases.
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Old 03-03-2020, 10:49 AM   #708
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So after all the recent campaign endings, when I go to vote this afternoon my choices will be aged 70, 77, 78 and 78. And one of them will oppose a 74 year old tangerine in November.
Mind boggling that we can't get a viable candidate in say their 50's.
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Old 03-03-2020, 10:57 AM   #709
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So after all the recent campaign endings, when I go to vote this afternoon my choices will be aged 70, 77, 78 and 78. And one of them will oppose a 74 year old tangerine in November.
Mind boggling that we can't get a viable candidate in say their 50's.


Boomers didnt wanna retire, gen x really didn’t give a shit, and millennials are too young.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:19 AM   #710
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Going back to things said before, women are just expected to be more "likable" and as smart as she is Senator Warren is just not likable enough for some people. Lol, the fool we have now is not likable at all...unless you are like him or just into that sort of thing for reasons unknown. Where's the likability test for Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg?
Fucking this.

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It’s interesting how she’s the unanimous choice of my highest educated friends — I think we all tend to want people who we relate to culturally.
Heh, in my case, I don't even fit the highly educated/professional/etc. mold of many of her supporters. At most, I did one year of community college, and all the jobs I've had have been typical customer service type stuff.

I've just always liked Warren because she's smart, experienced, tough, and I feel like she could really whip her administration into shape. I think she can strike a good balance between compromise and sticking to her principles in ways that I don't know Bernie or Biden would do quite as easily (Biden might be TOO compromising, Bernie might be TOO stubborn).

I do agree with LN, though, that it would make sense to see Warren voters go to Bernie, as I think they tend to be more aligned in terms of their progressiveness and whatnot. Between Biden and Bernie I personally would lean more towards Bernie.

That said...

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A good friend who lives in the immediate Philly ‘burbs — one of those liberal arts advanced degree friends — said that the Trump voter in her morning running group would vote for Biden over Trump. And so there, in an anecdote, is how I think this is won. Picking off the middle and the Trump voters who are queasy after 4 years of batshit tweets who also aren’t so rich and mercenary that they vote however their stocks tell them to vote.
I also think this is very true. It's kind of ridiculous that it'd have to take a specific Democratic candidate to make people decide to vote for that party over Trump-I would think at this point ANY candidate would be far more appealing to the middle and even whatever moderate Republicans are left over Trump.

But if Biden's the one who can help pry those voters away and bring them to our side, then hey, great. Should Biden get the nomination, let's run with that, then.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:37 AM   #711
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Interesting looking at some of the polls post South Carolina.
North Carolina now solidly Biden

TX narrowing

Biden now not in question of clearing 15% in CA

MN - In one week, Biden went from 8% to 27%!! Before Amy dropped and endorsed.

VA - In one week - it went from Sanders 28% / Biden 19% To Biden 45% Sanders 25%

Again, since Pete and Amy and Beto all happened last night, None of these polls put that in the mix. But the other thing is that half of the votes have already happened via early voting. So Biden will not actually reach these poll numbers, but it will make some difference.

Also, early word on the ground is that there is heavy turnout in the suburbs, especially ones that flipped from red to blue in 2018.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:41 AM   #712
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I'm seeing lots of "vote bernie! this is a once in a lifetime chance for change!" takes and I don't really understand them. I guess it's a once in a lifetime chance to elect him as president if he wins the nom because he's ancient, but it seems like there are enough people in the States that want their country to be broadly in line with the health, environment and education standards of other first world countries that those changes are likely to occur at some point in the not to distant future. Unless the movement really is nothing more than a personality cult.
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Old 03-03-2020, 12:09 PM   #713
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Heh, in my case, I don't even fit the highly educated/professional/etc. mold of many of her supporters. At most, I did one year of community college, and all the jobs I've had have been typical customer service type stuff.

I've just always liked Warren because she's smart, experienced, tough, and I feel like she could really whip her administration into shape.


but you do hang out in the political section of a U2 web forum -- that speaks volumes about your political and intellectual interests regardless of your specific degree

this article in the NYT, which is kind of an autopsy of the Warren campaign, i think hits it all on the head:

Quote:
What Ms. Warren, the senator from Massachusetts, calls her upbringing on the “ragged edge of the middle class” is foundational for her progressive agenda of a more assertive federal government that helps the less fortunate: a higher minimum wage, universal child care, a wealth tax. But her Oklahoma origin story — she went by Betsy at the time — has largely been lost in a 2020 race where she has become defined chiefly as the wonkish “plan for that” candidate.

“What too many voters see,” said Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist who worked on President Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, “is Professor Warren from Harvard Law and not Betsy from Norman, Oklahoma.”

Mr. Begala favorably compared Ms. Warren’s up-from-the-bootstraps life with his old client’s: a kid from the South who grew up amid hardship, ended up in an Ivy League institution and ultimately ran for president.

Ms. Warren’s relentless stream of erudite and innovation policy proposals — her latest would address the economic and medical implications of the coronavirus — helped lift her to front-runner status early last fall. She wowed the professional progressive class, delighted academics and activists and captured the imagination of MSNBC’s attentive audience.

But her populism and popularity never fully trickled down. Even at her peak, her strongest support came from what political operatives call the “wine track” of Democratic politics: white, affluent and college-educated voters, especially women.

“It’s both what got her to where she is but maybe prevented her from reaching beyond that,” said Joe Trippi, who served in 2004 as campaign manager for Howard Dean, another candidate in a long history of Democrats who won over the “wine track” but ultimately lost the nomination.

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Now, as voters head to the polls on Super Tuesday, Ms. Warren’s campaign has all but admitted her pathway to winning the Democratic nomination outright has vanished. She enters March seeking to accumulate delegates for a potential contested convention and is most realistically hunting for them in more educated enclaves, like Seattle and Denver, where she recently held rallies and is investing heavily in advertising.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/03/u...nJqiD5jpb1TfP0
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Old 03-03-2020, 12:30 PM   #714
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Interesting looking at some of the polls post South Carolina.

North Carolina now solidly Biden



TX narrowing



Biden now not in question of clearing 15% in CA



MN - In one week, Biden went from 8% to 27%!! Before Amy dropped and endorsed.



VA - In one week - it went from Sanders 28% / Biden 19% To Biden 45% Sanders 25%



Again, since Pete and Amy and Beto all happened last night, None of these polls put that in the mix. But the other thing is that half of the votes have already happened via early voting. So Biden will not actually reach these poll numbers, but it will make some difference.



Also, early word on the ground is that there is heavy turnout in the suburbs, especially ones that flipped from red to blue in 2018.
I think if you're a Biden supporter, the biggest thing to worry about is early voting. But a huge turnout will help him too.
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Old 03-03-2020, 12:35 PM   #715
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but you do hang out in the political section of a U2 web forum -- that speaks volumes about your political and intellectual interests regardless of your specific degree
Heh, aw, thanks .

I think there's some truth to that article, too. I actually forget that she's from Oklahoma-indeed, that part of her life doesn't seem to get much focus in the media and whatnot. Which is a bit strange, given how people talk all the time about the importance of trying to appeal to middle America and all.

On the note of polling places and whatnot, by the way, I heard that they've had to set up alternate polling places in Nashville as a result of some of the original polling sites being damaged by a tornado that hit the city last night. Apparently one place had just wrapped up a rally for Bernie not long before the storm hit. That's rather freaky.

I hope anyone who lives in/knows people who live in the Nashville area, or other parts of Tennessee that got hit last night, are okay.
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Old 03-03-2020, 01:24 PM   #716
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Unless the movement really is nothing more than a personality cult.
Bingo
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Old 03-03-2020, 02:11 PM   #717
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Two new national polls out today.

Sanders was up by an average of 7 last week.

Now Biden up by an average of 7.

Also, new New Hampshire Poll, showing three way tie with Sanders, Biden and Warren, all in the low to mid-twenties. I believe Biden was at about 9% last month...
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Old 03-03-2020, 03:37 PM   #718
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I haven’t a clue why you think they wouldn’t go to Bernie.

Because that is what the people I referenced told me?
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Old 03-03-2020, 03:55 PM   #719
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Perhaps they, I dunno, don't like Bernie. Shocking I know. He's such a loveable old curmudgeon.
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Old 03-03-2020, 04:14 PM   #720
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I could be proved wrong tonight, but that’s why I corrected your 40-45% to 20-25% because I think Bernie has a ceiling in this race. I think he became the interesting, anti-establishment Not Hillary in 2016, whereas 4 years later who he is is clear ... like Trump ... and now, 4 years later, no one else who hasn’t gotten on board is going to get on board.

Unless he wins the nomination. Then I think most, but not all, will get on board.
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