US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Senators run on their own platforms. Not sure why you think they’re beholden to their leadership. How do you think candidates like Joe Manchin and Doug Jones get elected?

By running purple candidates in red districts.

Sure. I'm totally in favor of that.

But to say that the person on top in a presidential election doesn't have an impact on the down ticket is just silly. If enthusiasm is up, more people will vote down the line.

The enthusiasm for Sanders is up only in a demographic that simply does not vote.

Today was brought to you by African American voters, suburban women and the olds. The same groups that always vote.

 

[LemonMelon]

I hope the old, out of touch, white centrist gets the job done this time.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Sanders: We will win the Democratic nomination.

Super Tuesday Voters:

You seem incredibly confident that the summation of early southern states implies a blowout.

While Biden is doing very well for himself right now, Bernie’s cards were all placed in Texas and California. Victories there, depending upon magnitude, can easily level the playing field.

IMO thanks to Bloomy and Warren, it looks increasingly likely that because of this Super Tuesday, getting the required delegates is going to be an uphill battle for any candidate.

With that being said, Biden is obviously better positioned to have the plurality, judging Florida.

 

[Irvine511]

Turns out that people really want to beat Trump

That’s what’s exciting about this to me.

If any candidate had momentum like this, I’d be happy. I’m kind of indifferent to Joe himself. He has upsides and downsides. But it’s the pulling together and the showing up and his winning black voters and educated white women that’s exciting.

Like, he would be able to accomplish likely not much more, or less, than any other D who possibly wins in November. Maybe a bit more, as he’ll be harder to demonize (and thereby harden opposition) than Sanders or Warren.

But the fact that there’s a clear path forward and an obviously determined electorate is objectively good news.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I’d say Joe Biden is the best possible thing for the left’s status quo. His position on healthcare is not one I agree with, but it’s a far better sell to me than the horse shit that was spewing out of Pete’s mouth.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

You seem incredibly confident that the summation of early southern states implies a blowout.

While Biden is doing very well for himself right now, Bernie’s cards were all placed in Texas and California. Victories there, depending upon magnitude, can easily level the playing field.

IMO thanks to Bloomy and Warren, it looks increasingly likely that because of this Super Tuesday, getting the required delegates is going to be an uphill battle for any candidate.

With that being said, Biden is obviously better positioned to have the plurality, judging Florida.

And it's already looking pretty clear that Texas is going to be a split.

California will go to Bernie, probably large as there's a ton of early vote there. But based on the rest of the results it's highly likely that Biden will be well above 15% and thus cut Sanders' big win down and come away tonight with a net win.

Every same day vote thus far has broken hard towards Biden thanks to the consolidation of the moderate side.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Also adding this... it's looking like Bloomberg took more away from Biden tonight than Warren took away from Sanders.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

And it's already looking pretty clear that Texas is going to be a split.

California will go to Bernie, probably large as there's a ton of early vote there. But based on the rest of the results it's highly likely that Biden will be well above 15% and thus cut Sanders' big win down and come away tonight with a net win.

Every same day vote thus far has broken hard towards Biden thanks to the consolidation of the moderate side.

And still, I think you’re washing the value of population. It doesn’t matter how much one player paints the map of the USA. Yes, Biden is absolutely consolidating the moderates and riding that into first, but this is too close to comment on until they finish and start divvying up delegates.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

For reference: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/five-scenarios-for-how-super-tuesday-could-go/

So much is dependent on the delegate counts coming from these states, and not who the victor is. The south was supposed to go to Biden. How much it went to Biden is the question. Massachusetts looks like a big upset in formation, but equally Sanders might be able to pull through in Texas.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

And still, I think you’re washing the value of population. It doesn’t matter how much one player paints the map of the USA. Yes, Biden is absolutely consolidating the moderates and riding that into first, but this is too close to comment on until they finish and start divvying up delegates.

I'm not.

He's winning the south by 120-150 delegates.

If Biden splits Texas and is above the 15% threshold in California then Biden will likely end up with more delegates when the night is over - which was crazy to think about 72 hours ago - and he does this just in time for the map to flip more in favor of the moderate track.

The question going into today was whether or not Sanders was going to end the race tonight. He might not even be on the lead tomorrow.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

For reference: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/five-scenarios-for-how-super-tuesday-could-go/

So much is dependent on the delegate counts coming from these states, and not who the victor is. The south was supposed to go to Biden. How much it went to Biden is the question. Massachusetts looks like a big upset in formation, but equally Sanders might be able to pull through in Texas.

And it's going to Biden by huge numbers. That's the point

 

[Jerry Dunk]

You are all fooling yourselves. Biden will lose to Trump.

 

[womanfish]

If anyone would have told me that Biden would likely win Massachusetts, Minnesota, Maine, and possibly TX. I would have said they were crazy. But it looks like there is a movement going on. And it isn’t the one we’ve been hearing so much about this whole time.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Biden's going to win Massachusetts

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

You are all fooling yourselves. Biden will lose to Trump.

How is Bernie going to drive the youth vote he'd need to win a general election if he couldn't drive the youth vote on Super Tuesday in his own adopted party?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I'm not.

He's winning the south by 120-150 delegates.

If Biden splits Texas and is above the 15% threshold in California then Biden will likely end up with more delegates when the night is over - which was crazy to think about 72 hours ago - and he does this just in time for the map to flip more in favor of the moderate track.

The question going into today was whether or not Sanders was going to end the race tonight. He might not even be on the lead tomorrow.

Ok? I don’t doubt that Biden comes away tonight with more delegates. Also I’m not entirely sure your 120-150 delegate claim is all that true (unless you’re counting South Carolina?). You can’t possibly know until they’re done counting.

That’s an interesting story you took into the night. Pretty sure everyone else including the pollsters and models absorbed the hugeness of the moderate unification and expected Biden to win Super Tuesday.

And none of this is changing the fact that, so long as Bloomberg persists, Biden’s surge really only puts him in the seat to plurality.

 

[womanfish]

You are all fooling yourselves. Biden will lose to Trump.

There are two things that will beat Trump. A suburban blue wave, which Biden is showing now, see VA, NC and wait for Harris County. Black voters over 40, see SC. Those two things, among others will beat Trump.

There is record turnout in places tonight because people WANT to beat Trump. But Sanders has yet to really prove his speech that he gives 100 times a day, that youth turnout and record breaking turnout give him a win.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

And it's going to Biden by huge numbers. That's the point

Lol but it’s not. I mean, it is in places that it was supposed to. Massachusetts and Minnesota were big swings for sure. The rest are as expected. Bernie looks like he over-performed in Colorado and perhaps Utah (to be seen) and maybe Texas.

These results are critical to the Sanders campaign, as clearly they were his stronghold.

 

[LemonMelon]

You are all fooling yourselves. Biden will lose to Trump.

Handily.

He can't even pull off a decent victory speech, let alone spar onstage with Trump. The guy doesn't bring much new to the table demographically; Hillary trounced Bernie with the black vote in 2016 as well.

The best hope is that people just hate Trump enough to mobilize.

 

[Irvine511]

You are all fooling yourselves. Biden will lose to Trump.

Maybe.

But it seems pretty clear that Bernie would lose by much more.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Lol but it’s not. I mean, it is in places that it was supposed to. Massachusetts and Minnesota were big swings for sure. The rest are as expected. Bernie looks like he over-performed in Colorado and perhaps Utah (to be seen) and maybe Texas.

These results are critical to the Sanders campaign, as clearly they were his stronghold.

lol ok

 

[womanfish]

TX is about to come home for Biden. Same day vote is showing about a 25% shift from early voting numbers in large metro and suburban areas.

Ps. That’s the new demo that Biden brings that can bring Trump down. Not the 18-29 vote.

 

[DaveC]

 

[DaveC]

if you like it when two angry grandpas from either side of the family yell incoherent nonsense at each other over family gatherings, oh boy are you going to love the debates coming up in the next six months.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

if you like it when two angry grandpas from either side of the family yell incoherent nonsense at each other over family gatherings, oh boy are you going to love the debates coming up in the next six months.

because the alternative was a smooth talking youngster

 

[womanfish]

And Biden got these numbers with a little over a million spent.

And god yes DaveC. Bernie Biden debate.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

lol ok

I don’t understand how you’re disputing this.

Results are current as of this post.

For Biden-Sanders...

Alabama: 40-18
Actual: 62-16 @58%

California: 22-31
Actual: ???

Colorado: 18-27
Actual: 22-36 @83%

Maine: 21-31
Actual: 33-33 @66%

Massachusetts: 18-24
Actual: 33-27 @84%

Minnesota: 18-26
Actual: 38-30 @71%

North Carolina: 35-22
Actual: 43-24 @87%

Oklahoma: 31-22
Actual: 38-25 @78%

Tennessee: 29-25
Actual: 43-24 @70%

Texas: 25-28
Actual: 27-29 @51%

Utah: 20-26
Actual: 18-32 @70%

Vermont: 10-53
Actual: 22-51 @96%

Virginia: 40-21
Actual: 53-23 @99%


Almost every trend is following, but there’s a noticeable uptick in Biden support at the expense of Bloomberg. And so if you follow that 538 link, we are probably looking at a Biden surge (the pink). Looking at just how valuable California and Texas are, you can quickly see how the pink 614-445 (which assumes Biden wins Texas and California) can quickly end up 550-500 in favor of those results are flip flopped.

Of course this is all hand waving because we don’t actually have the delegate sums from almost all of the states, which aren’t directly proportional to vote counts in some or most states. It could end up being a total blowout, I’m not entirely familiar with each state’s rules.

 

[DaveC]

because the alternative was a smooth talking youngster

yes i too recall buttigieg being an option.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

TX is about to come home for Biden.

It's looking that way

 

[Irvine511]

if you like it when two angry grandpas from either side of the family yell incoherent nonsense at each other over family gatherings, oh boy are you going to love the debates coming up in the next six months.

Totally. It’s going to be awful.