US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of - Page 27 - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind > Free Your Mind Archive
Click Here to Login
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 02-27-2020, 11:31 AM   #521
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
womanfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: moons of Zooropa
Posts: 7,232
Local Time: 08:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anitram View Post
He is folksy which comes across in town halls, but I don't think it's the number of people on stage in a debate as much as the fact that he is prone to saying dumb things + he is not quick on his feet. And because most people are idiots, they want to be entertained by their politicians so his inability to be quick with barbs or quips hurts him.

I also don't think that he has the best people running his campaign. Too many things have gone sideways. I think this was also part of Hillary's problem.
Have to agree on the people on his campaign. He needs to do some housecleaning.

I just think he and Warren both have a great way of connecting with people, sharing their own life experiences.

I still am sticking with my assessment on the debate format. When you have several minutes to answer questions and don't have to try to continually jump in, or take on chatter from several people around you, I think that will put him more in the position of a town-hall type setting in how he performs.

Now if he can get there, we shall see.
Wish SC would just happen already.
__________________

womanfish is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 11:33 AM   #522
Rock n' Roll Doggie
VIP PASS
 
BEAL's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: San Diego
Posts: 6,516
Local Time: 08:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
The known Sanders oppo folder, in Twitter thread form.

https://twitter.com/riotwomennn/stat...251746304?s=19
I think the thread touched on a few points that the GOP will hammer home

loony socialist / communist
misogynist -- You watch, Trump will hammer Bernie on how he and his campaign treated Hillary. He'll say all of this is Bernie's fault since he had to fracture the party

Bernie's wife. GOP had no issue going after Hunter Biden, think they won't call investigations into Bernie's wife??

I'll say it again, Bernie will lose over 40+ states. Name the ones he'll win for sure. Don't think you can get to 10
__________________

BEAL is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 11:38 AM   #523
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
womanfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: moons of Zooropa
Posts: 7,232
Local Time: 08:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
Wow, these South Carolina polls really are erratic. I suspect the Biden blowouts are more accurate than the close calls, but we will see.
They seem to be trending towards Biden though.

Between 2/12 to 2/21 - Biden Averaged a +4 in SC

Between 2/21 to 2/25 - He is averaging a +13 in SC

Mounmouth out today has him at +20. Still taken before the debate and before endorsement.
womanfish is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 11:38 AM   #524
Blue Crack Addict
 
anitram's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BEAL View Post
I'll say it again, Bernie will lose over 40+ states. Name the ones he'll win for sure. Don't think you can get to 10
Seriously?

California
Hawaii
Vermont
Washington
Massachussetts
New York
Illinois
Maryland
Connecticut
Rhode Island

Just off the top of my head...
anitram is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 11:42 AM   #525
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
womanfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: moons of Zooropa
Posts: 7,232
Local Time: 08:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BEAL View Post
I think the thread touched on a few points that the GOP will hammer home

loony socialist / communist
misogynist -- You watch, Trump will hammer Bernie on how he and his campaign treated Hillary. He'll say all of this is Bernie's fault since he had to fracture the party

Bernie's wife. GOP had no issue going after Hunter Biden, think they won't call investigations into Bernie's wife??

I'll say it again, Bernie will lose over 40+ states. Name the ones he'll win for sure. Don't think you can get to 10
Man, I don't think Bernie will win in a big way, but that's a simple answer:

Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Minnesota
Michigan
Illinois
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Maine
New Hampshire
Delaware
Maryland
DC
Virginia

There's 21
womanfish is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 11:42 AM   #526
Blue Crack Addict
 
deep's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,601
Local Time: 12:22 PM
Quote:

The shtick is wearing thin for the Democrats’ trio of crotchety geezers

America is said to be enraged. But on the debate stage Tuesday night in South Carolina we didn’t hear much righteous indignation or revolutionary anger. Instead, the candidates seemed irritable.

Huffy. Crotchety. The kitsch version of outrage.

And the ones who best nailed the crotchety shtick were the trio of geezers: former Vice President Joe Biden, former New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

With serious threats looming large — a coronavirus pandemic, a market crash and another disastrous term for President Trump — it’s not a great time for kitsch. But here we are.

Even as they hold the lead in Democratic polls, these guys aren’t aiming to play wise graybeards. They seem more like residents of a midlevel retirement home, bickering over the remote and confused to tears by the Roku. Except they’re tussling over the presidency, and perhaps confused to tears by an electorate in which boomers are fading and Gen Z is rising. In November, for the first time, people born in the 1990s will have a bigger share of the electorate than the Silent Generation (born 1925 to 1945).

You could see the tetchiness in their sitcom body language Tuesday night. Joe, 78, huffed when he felt others were getting more time at the mic. Mike, 78, sniffed and rolled his eyes. And Bernie, 79, waved his arms and didn’t even bother to use an ear horn to hear the questions. He just said whatever popped into his head.

So why is this geriatric stuff playing at all with the kids? Sanders is, of course, an icon for young voters. But Biden may be gaining there: In a recent poll in Oklahoma, a Super Tuesday state, Biden carried nearly 44% of 18- to 34-year-olds, just about doubling Sanders’ percentage And while Bloomberg has been failing so far with the young, his pricey effort to blitz them with memes has associated him with, if nothing else, novelty, irony and a commitment to beating Trump.


Robert Venturi, the American architect, once observed that people tend to resent and reject the sensibility of their parents’ generation, while revering that of their grandparents. To Gen Z, someone like Sanders comes off as a rad old Marxist who once lived in a maple sugar shack with a dirt floor. He’s not a beetle-browed OK boomer sweating it out in a corporate job and on a Peloton.

In the 1990s, David Letterman — now a crotchety old man himself — used to bring on his show a character called Larry “Bud” Melman, played by the apparently doddering Calvert DeForest. The show described Melman as a “mascot” and put him up to embarrassing stunts; he never failed to get a laugh from Letterman’s young viewers.

Now we have mascots running for president.

In their heyday, fearsome white men with money and position, like these candidates, could crush the rest of us. In the autumn of their years, they’re less ferocious, more open and, best of all, more ironic about manly power. They make jokes about being short and bald. In general, they’re sympathetic.

But they also get riled. The same goes for middle-aged people born after 1942 . Half the time, a sweet yogic surrender to aging seems possible; the other half we’re making a manic grab for Botox and relevancy.

The problem with Biden, Bloomberg and Sanders isn’t necessarily waning health. For all their accomplishments, they are provincials, each born at the dawn of the 1940s, five or six wars ago. They retain the regional accents of Medford, Mass., Scranton, Pa., and Brooklyn that have all but disappeared in their childhood neighborhoods, which have changed in every way.

And most of all: At a time when more than half of people in America younger than 15 are nonwhite (black, Latino, Asian and more), the geezer trio have hair and complexions the color of powdered wigs.

Their formative experiences are simply at odds with those of most voters. The mothers of these men came of age without the vote. When they grew up, Jim Crow ruled the South and pervaded every region. They were at the height of their powers in the “Mad Men” years of sex discrimination and carousing that would today be actionable, if not jailable. They were probably in their 50s when they first saw the World Wide Web.

And they seem to have lost, above all, their capacity to be taught. To learn requires a kind of submission that’s anathema to most powerful men in old age. It requires cognitive flexibility, a forfeiture of authority and a willingness to admit ignorance.



None of this appears to come easy to these three men, who seem to have convinced themselves they’ve always been right. Right on labor, gay marriage, taxes, civil rights, crime, feminism, guns and all those wars. But what are the chances they’ve been right all this time, by the standards of 2020?

If you’re over 40, think of the mystification you may still feel about the blockchain or #gamergate. That’s got to be how someone nearly 80 feels about reparations, identity politics, trans rights and #MeToo.

And there’s the rub: The old men in the race don’t instinctively grasp the dangers of nondisclosure agreements or the continuing reality of police brutality. They don’t know what they don’t know.

When Bloomberg seemed to forget whether “Politburo” was the right word for the advisors to the Chinese Communist Party, he pivoted to call it “their group of people.” And then Biden helpfully defined a “no-fly zone” as “you can’t fly through our zone.” Sanders just kept up the bluster, barely pretending to be on the ball.

The stumbles that mark these three men as holdovers rather than visionaries might be endearing in less perilous times. But we already have a kitsch geezer president — and, as America now knows, the joke wears off quickly.
.
deep is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 11:46 AM   #527
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
womanfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: moons of Zooropa
Posts: 7,232
Local Time: 08:22 PM
Those 21 would only get him to 249. He would have to pick up PA (would win by 1 point) or a WI and AZ pickup, to win by two points.

So this says two things. Bernie would not lose in a landslide. But on the other hand. He is probably just going to be able to eek out a tiny victory.
womanfish is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:02 PM   #528
Blue Crack Addict
 
LuckyNumber7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 18,455
Local Time: 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anitram View Post
Seriously?



California

Hawaii

Vermont

Washington

Massachussetts

New York

Illinois

Maryland

Connecticut

Rhode Island



Just off the top of my head...


I challenged BEAL to say which states he would unexpectedly lose and BEAL’s response was something along the lines of “I have a feeling.”

It’s weird now to see BEAL is in fact the one challenging others to name just 10 states a democrat would win.
LuckyNumber7 is online now  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:04 PM   #529
Blue Crack Addict
 
deep's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,601
Local Time: 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BEAL View Post


I'll say it again, Bernie will lose over 40+ states. Name the ones he'll win for sure. Don't think you can get to 10
I really can't begin to say.

al this time four years ago we had people saying similar things about a Trump candidacy

If Bernie gets elected, I don't believe the country will go down the tubes,

Ginsburg would get to retire, the Dems will calculate if it better to do it before or after 22 elections. If they have the Senate, Breyer would like to step down too.


Most of Bernies and AOC wish list will go nowhere in legislation.

We could get background checks on guns, a good thing and long overdue.


Bernie will not be able to open the border any more that Obama did. Obama put kids in cages and deported more people that Trump? is that right?


so my thoughts at this point, after Nov either Trump or Bernie will get 4 years.

I admit they are quite different, and there are many things in each of their platforms and agendas that bother me. and at this time I not sure who I will vote for.
deep is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:04 PM   #530
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: DC
Posts: 68,195
Local Time: 03:22 PM
I don't think we're in a time where anyone could possibly lose 40+ states the way Mondale did, unless Bernie comes out in favor of killing puppies or something.
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:06 PM   #531
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: DC
Posts: 68,195
Local Time: 03:22 PM
Side note - Trump could kill a puppy on 5th Avenue and not lose a single voter from his base
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:08 PM   #532
Blue Crack Addict
 
anitram's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
Side note - Trump could kill a puppy on 5th Avenue and not lose a single voter from his base
I was going to say.
anitram is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:09 PM   #533
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: DC
Posts: 68,195
Local Time: 03:22 PM
The puppy had it coming
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:21 PM   #534
Blue Crack Addict
 
deep's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,601
Local Time: 12:22 PM
The puppy was a Chihuahua

and therefore a rapist!!
deep is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:31 PM   #535
Blue Crack Addict
 
anitram's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
I admit they are quite different, and there are many things in each of their platforms and agendas that bother me. and at this time I not sure who I will vote for.
When you see people who are politically informed and inclined say this, you know we're all fucked.
anitram is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:43 PM   #536
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 33,469
Local Time: 04:22 PM
where i vote, the primary won't make a bit of difference, i don't think -- it's not until June, and it's a city that went 93% for Hillary.

however, what happens in SC may be determinative for me.

i do think the person i most want to see be president on that stage is Warren.

however, people aren't voting for her. they're just not. i don't know why -- although, maybe i do -- but they aren't.

because my #1 criteria is to remove Trump, followed very nearly by winning the Senate, that means i don't want her as the candidate because there is no evidence that she can draw voters into the booth.

based on 2018, i tend to think a centrist candidate who wins the suburbs will have a better chance at winning the critical states (PA, WI, MI) than will someone who drives up the NY/CA base. therefore, i look at the centrist candidates, and the one who makes the most sense on paper is Klobuchar.

but she's not drawing the excitement or the votes needed to achieve my #1 goal -- defeating Trump.

i sometimes wonder if Pete could be that centrist ... because he's as dazzlingly talented as anyone i've seen, although he lacks the soulfulness of Obama or B. Clinton. i also which he had more of a resume. if he can go off and win statewide in Indiana, then i'm in in (hopefully) 2028 or beyond.

which brings me back to the two candidates who seem capable of winning votes: Biden or Bernie.

if Biden wins SC in a blowout, then that shows me that he is capable of winning the general.

if Bernie over-performs in SC and is close to Biden, like within 5 points, then i will start to believe that he could be a successful general election candidate.

so, for me, SC is a big deal. it will probably determine who i vote for in the primary. i want a proven track record of winning in a manner that suggests general election success, and in a manner that also suggests helping win Senate seats.

two SCOTUS seats is like literally my life in the balance. if Trump appoints two more judges, my marriage could be rendered meaningless, if not dissolved altogether.

they will do that. because a certain amount of the population still hates me, and they will expect payback in a 2nd Trump term.
Irvine511 is online now  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:51 PM   #537
Blue Crack Addict
 
anitram's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post

because my #1 criteria is to remove Trump, followed very nearly by winning the Senate, that means i don't want her as the candidate because there is no evidence that she can draw voters into the booth.
God knows I've said enough times here to bore everyone by now that I have zero faith in Biden's ability to run a successful campaign and pull it together. His blunders, his inability to be quick on his feet and just that general tone of "geezer" that he gives off worry me to no end.

However, if I were asked for priorities, I'd reverse the two you put forward. With a Democratic Senate and Congress, Trump is basically neutered. He will be in a position in which he has never, ever been in his life and he'll fail on every metric. The main concern would be SCOTUS.

If the choice is between Sanders running on a platform of a revolution and the whole world praying that he doesn't kill down ticket voting and a senile Biden running in conjunction with a billion dollars or more pumped in by Mike Bloomberg to buy (I have no issue with using this word, at least we're being honest for once) Senate and Congressional seats, then that may be a worthwhile thing. I know I'll get attacked for "this does nothing to move the needle and billionaires buying elections, etc" but realistically that is what happens anyway and losing RBG + likely Breyer is literally judicial suicide for 2 decades if not forever.
anitram is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 01:12 PM   #538
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 33,469
Local Time: 04:22 PM
While I do think Biden is too old, I don’t think he’s been *that* bad ... and elections are choices. He’s sharper and more agile than Trump.

Of course, Trump is going to take off his pants and piss on the stage and tell the moderators to lick his balls.
Irvine511 is online now  
Old 02-27-2020, 01:35 PM   #539
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
womanfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: moons of Zooropa
Posts: 7,232
Local Time: 08:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
where i vote, the primary won't make a bit of difference, i don't think -- it's not until June, and it's a city that went 93% for Hillary.

however, what happens in SC may be determinative for me.

i do think the person i most want to see be president on that stage is Warren.

however, people aren't voting for her. they're just not. i don't know why -- although, maybe i do -- but they aren't.

because my #1 criteria is to remove Trump, followed very nearly by winning the Senate, that means i don't want her as the candidate because there is no evidence that she can draw voters into the booth.

based on 2018, i tend to think a centrist candidate who wins the suburbs will have a better chance at winning the critical states (PA, WI, MI) than will someone who drives up the NY/CA base. therefore, i look at the centrist candidates, and the one who makes the most sense on paper is Klobuchar.

but she's not drawing the excitement or the votes needed to achieve my #1 goal -- defeating Trump.

i sometimes wonder if Pete could be that centrist ... because he's as dazzlingly talented as anyone i've seen, although he lacks the soulfulness of Obama or B. Clinton. i also which he had more of a resume. if he can go off and win statewide in Indiana, then i'm in in (hopefully) 2028 or beyond.

which brings me back to the two candidates who seem capable of winning votes: Biden or Bernie.

if Biden wins SC in a blowout, then that shows me that he is capable of winning the general.

if Bernie over-performs in SC and is close to Biden, like within 5 points, then i will start to believe that he could be a successful general election candidate.

so, for me, SC is a big deal. it will probably determine who i vote for in the primary. i want a proven track record of winning in a manner that suggests general election success, and in a manner that also suggests helping win Senate seats.

two SCOTUS seats is like literally my life in the balance. if Trump appoints two more judges, my marriage could be rendered meaningless, if not dissolved altogether.

they will do that. because a certain amount of the population still hates me, and they will expect payback in a 2nd Trump term.
Again, we see pretty closely eye to eye. I have to say that I think Warren would have a harder time than Bernie in the general. I don't see her doing well in the midwest/PA states we need. Throw in the sexist handicap which we know is out there, and it would be tough for her.

What i really agree on is just how important SC is now in this race.
Why?
Simply because i think it has become clear to voters that Pete, Warren and Amy are just not viable anymore. That leaves Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg moving forward, but Bloomberg obviously is not on the ballot there.
While Bernie won big in NV, and gave him a week of talk about "momentum" and front-runner and trajectory to the nomination. If Biden were to pull off a surprise large win in SC, that really would wipe that out.

I am guessing Biden might now hit around the 8-10 point win area. But if he exceeded that. Got a 15 point+ win, i think that would really turn voter sentiment around.
You would see support for those bottom 3 (and Steyer) fall quickly, as Biden suddenly becomes viable again.
If he gets around 30 delegates, he's back up near the top in delegates. And he will be the one with some momentum into Super Tuesday.

Really good breakdown of all this from 538

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...outh-carolina/
womanfish is offline  
Old 02-27-2020, 01:37 PM   #540
Rock n' Roll Doggie
VIP PASS
 
BEAL's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: San Diego
Posts: 6,516
Local Time: 08:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by womanfish View Post
Man, I don't think Bernie will win in a big way, but that's a simple answer:

Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Minnesota
Michigan
Illinois
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Maine
New Hampshire
Delaware
Maryland
DC
Virginia

There's 21
Ok. I'll bite and list the states he loses and i'll work from West coast (best coast) to East.

Trump Wins:
ID
MT
WY
UT
AZ
CO
TX
OK
KS
NE
SD
ND
MN
IA
MO
AR
LA
MS
AL
GA
FL
TN
KY
WI
IN
MI
OH
WV
VA
NC
SC
PA
AK

I'm questionable on Bernie winning NV, and NM. I could see IL being a loss too despite Chicago typically going blue.

Bernie won't win the burbs.

So not quite a 40 state prediction, but it'll be a bloodbath.
__________________

BEAL is offline  
 

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:22 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com
×