US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of

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My gut tells me that Biden will do well in SC. Which he really has to since it’s his last stand.

On a different note, if I wasn’t convinced that Trump’s brain is fried I’d be thinking he is setting up Pence for failure on purpose.
 
Based on my own personal luck and Mike Pence's advice, I'm staying the hell away from women until this whole Coronavirus crisis is over.
 
Feel the need to get down some thoughts about Bernie here.

I sort of feel like I don't have a team here. I'm not a 100% Bernie loyalist like Peef and Dave, but nor do I agree with some of the vitriol that some people in here have been spitting at him lately.

I started out supporting Bernie over Hillary in 2016, but by the Spring I had soured on him a little, due to the behavior of his supporters(whether that behavior is reflective of a majority or simply a loud minority) and due to his seeming lack of interest in foreign policy. This is despite the fact that I am ideologically to the left of Hillary.

I started this campaign out as a Warren supporter. Still am. She's still my #1 choice, but it's not happening. She seems like an ideal bridge between the left and the establishment, but the left is not terribly interested in bridges and the monied interests that fund the establishment don't like Warren.

So now it's Bernie or one of the remaining centrists. People fret about whether or not Sanders can win in November, but I don't see a single one of these centrists as being a sure bet to win. Biden comes off as a confused old man too often, and when he's not doing that, he's relying on "Obama" and "I was the one" too much. Klobuchar is DOA. Pete is the most well-spoken of all of them, but he's almost too smooth, hasn't proven the ability to attract minorities, and has imo shifted positions too much. Bloomberg's debates haven't gone well enough to make anyone overly confident that he'd do well against Trump, and his aggressive "get off my lawn" approach to anything halfway-leftist is off-putting.

If any of these people seemed like an overwhelming favorite, I'd favor them, because beating Trump is the most important thing.

But none of them seem like that to me, at least not right now. And if that's the case, and if Warren is done, than I might as well go with the guy who both has policies that I favor and an actual chance to win the nomination, even if I do have concerns about him.

I do have concerns, and I understand you guys' concerns. But some of you are going over-the-top. I have seen people fear-mongering with the word 'socialist' in here, and when you do that, you sound like Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity. Don't.

We need to get past this cold-war mentality already. When Bloomberg accused Bernie of communism in his first debate, I rolled my eyes so hard. This attempt, that the media is complicit in, to connect Bernie to Cuba and the Soviet Union and Nicaragua, etc et al, as though that's the kind of society he wants to create, is disingenuous. Nobody actually believes that. Not the candidates, not the media, and not anyone in here. But there are uneducated voters who would fall for it, and that's the point.

At the same time, Bernie does himself no favors when given the opportunity to debunk that stuff. It frustrates me that we still have to have this conversation, but we do, the accusations are going to come, and he needs to get a hell of a lot better at combating that stuff if he's going to be the nominee. Like, you have no intention of creating a pure socialist, authoritarian society, so say that when you're asked, and say it clearly, emphatically, and without equivocation.

And he needs to stop letting his staff tweet out unhelpful crap about coming for the Democratic Establishment too.

I also see, both in here and in the media, this panic, this prognostication that he's going to lose in a landslide, lose 40 states, and we'll lose the House because of it. That just seems extreme to me. I'm not saying he'll definitely win. It will probably be a close election in terms of the electoral college(but not the popular vote). But he could win.

So, I generally support Bernie's policies(even if I'm not wild about the man), and I'm not overly convinced of anyone else's certain path to victory, so for now, I'm cautiously supporting him(while being sad that Warren is being counted out). Also, and it's sad I have to say this, but another reason I'm increasingly supportive of him is that I increasingly don't trust his supporters to show up for anyone else in November.

Thanks for reading.

Almost identical to me, down to my initial support of Sanders in 2016, and believing Warren would be the best president of the bunch

But for me, as I've stated many times here, the biggest, most important, most vital thing is winning the Senate. There really is nothing more urgent than this.

So while I started supporting Biden this time, but then shifted towards Warren, As I see her run coming to an end, while I may be somewhere in the middle of Biden and Bernie in policy. I cannot use my vote to take a chance on losing the senate. Too much is at stake.

Imagine 4 years of a republican senate. Hundreds more federal judges placed for a lifetime.
If Trump wins, another seat on the Supreme court.

I also have to think logically about the path to win in the general. Biden has more options to win than Sanders. I think they could both win, but the only one i see with more options and the possibility to win really big, is Biden.

So because of that. Biden still has my vote.
 
And to all those that keep calling Biden a bumbling mess. Take 90 seconds and watch this and remember why these are the reasons - in the general, doing town halls, making speeches, meeting with groups, Biden excels. I also think his debate game will be much sharper with 2 people on the stage. I think the 7-8 people all shouting over each other is not a good setting for him.

anyway. I'm not a religious guy. My background kind of cured me of that. But my dad is a minister, and I know that it is important to many people and brings comfort in their lives. So this is a very genuine moment that just shows how as a person, he is the antithesis of Trump.

https://twitter.com/NicolleDWallace/status/1232850034103922690
 
And to all those that keep calling Biden a bumbling mess. Take 90 seconds and watch this and remember why these are the reasons - in the general, doing town halls, making speeches, meeting with groups, Biden excels. I also think his debate game will be much sharper with 2 people on the stage. I think the 7-8 people all shouting over each other is not a good setting for him.

He is folksy which comes across in town halls, but I don't think it's the number of people on stage in a debate as much as the fact that he is prone to saying dumb things + he is not quick on his feet. And because most people are idiots, they want to be entertained by their politicians so his inability to be quick with barbs or quips hurts him.

I also don't think that he has the best people running his campaign. Too many things have gone sideways. I think this was also part of Hillary's problem.
 
Biden isn't as sharp as he used to be, but he's no where near the level of Trump.

It's horrible that the media just slices and pieces together Trump's maniac ramblings so they appear to be normal for the news/soundbites.

Anyone who watched that presser yesterday, or any time he opens his mouth, can see that this man is unwell, a moron, and completely ill-equipped to tackle this

Instead we'll get the news filtered to say everything is fine, when it's clearly not. We are no prepared for the mass outages that are to come (meaning school, business closures).
 
He is folksy which comes across in town halls, but I don't think it's the number of people on stage in a debate as much as the fact that he is prone to saying dumb things + he is not quick on his feet. And because most people are idiots, they want to be entertained by their politicians so his inability to be quick with barbs or quips hurts him.

I also don't think that he has the best people running his campaign. Too many things have gone sideways. I think this was also part of Hillary's problem.

Have to agree on the people on his campaign. He needs to do some housecleaning.

I just think he and Warren both have a great way of connecting with people, sharing their own life experiences.

I still am sticking with my assessment on the debate format. When you have several minutes to answer questions and don't have to try to continually jump in, or take on chatter from several people around you, I think that will put him more in the position of a town-hall type setting in how he performs.

Now if he can get there, we shall see.
Wish SC would just happen already.
 
The known Sanders oppo folder, in Twitter thread form.

https://twitter.com/riotwomennn/status/1212898980251746304?s=19

I think the thread touched on a few points that the GOP will hammer home

loony socialist / communist
misogynist -- You watch, Trump will hammer Bernie on how he and his campaign treated Hillary. He'll say all of this is Bernie's fault since he had to fracture the party

Bernie's wife. GOP had no issue going after Hunter Biden, think they won't call investigations into Bernie's wife??

I'll say it again, Bernie will lose over 40+ states. Name the ones he'll win for sure. Don't think you can get to 10
 
Wow, these South Carolina polls really are erratic. I suspect the Biden blowouts are more accurate than the close calls, but we will see.

They seem to be trending towards Biden though.

Between 2/12 to 2/21 - Biden Averaged a +4 in SC

Between 2/21 to 2/25 - He is averaging a +13 in SC

Mounmouth out today has him at +20. Still taken before the debate and before endorsement.
 
I'll say it again, Bernie will lose over 40+ states. Name the ones he'll win for sure. Don't think you can get to 10

Seriously?

California
Hawaii
Vermont
Washington
Massachussetts
New York
Illinois
Maryland
Connecticut
Rhode Island

Just off the top of my head...
 
I think the thread touched on a few points that the GOP will hammer home

loony socialist / communist
misogynist -- You watch, Trump will hammer Bernie on how he and his campaign treated Hillary. He'll say all of this is Bernie's fault since he had to fracture the party

Bernie's wife. GOP had no issue going after Hunter Biden, think they won't call investigations into Bernie's wife??

I'll say it again, Bernie will lose over 40+ states. Name the ones he'll win for sure. Don't think you can get to 10

Man, I don't think Bernie will win in a big way, but that's a simple answer:

Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Minnesota
Michigan
Illinois
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Maine
New Hampshire
Delaware
Maryland
DC
Virginia

There's 21
 
The shtick is wearing thin for the Democrats’ trio of crotchety geezers

America is said to be enraged. But on the debate stage Tuesday night in South Carolina we didn’t hear much righteous indignation or revolutionary anger. Instead, the candidates seemed irritable.

Huffy. Crotchety. The kitsch version of outrage.

And the ones who best nailed the crotchety shtick were the trio of geezers: former Vice President Joe Biden, former New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

With serious threats looming large — a coronavirus pandemic, a market crash and another disastrous term for President Trump — it’s not a great time for kitsch. But here we are.

Even as they hold the lead in Democratic polls, these guys aren’t aiming to play wise graybeards. They seem more like residents of a midlevel retirement home, bickering over the remote and confused to tears by the Roku. Except they’re tussling over the presidency, and perhaps confused to tears by an electorate in which boomers are fading and Gen Z is rising. In November, for the first time, people born in the 1990s will have a bigger share of the electorate than the Silent Generation (born 1925 to 1945).

You could see the tetchiness in their sitcom body language Tuesday night. Joe, 78, huffed when he felt others were getting more time at the mic. Mike, 78, sniffed and rolled his eyes. And Bernie, 79, waved his arms and didn’t even bother to use an ear horn to hear the questions. He just said whatever popped into his head.

So why is this geriatric stuff playing at all with the kids? Sanders is, of course, an icon for young voters. But Biden may be gaining there: In a recent poll in Oklahoma, a Super Tuesday state, Biden carried nearly 44% of 18- to 34-year-olds, just about doubling Sanders’ percentage And while Bloomberg has been failing so far with the young, his pricey effort to blitz them with memes has associated him with, if nothing else, novelty, irony and a commitment to beating Trump.


Robert Venturi, the American architect, once observed that people tend to resent and reject the sensibility of their parents’ generation, while revering that of their grandparents. To Gen Z, someone like Sanders comes off as a rad old Marxist who once lived in a maple sugar shack with a dirt floor. He’s not a beetle-browed OK boomer sweating it out in a corporate job and on a Peloton.

In the 1990s, David Letterman — now a crotchety old man himself — used to bring on his show a character called Larry “Bud” Melman, played by the apparently doddering Calvert DeForest. The show described Melman as a “mascot” and put him up to embarrassing stunts; he never failed to get a laugh from Letterman’s young viewers.

Now we have mascots running for president.

In their heyday, fearsome white men with money and position, like these candidates, could crush the rest of us. In the autumn of their years, they’re less ferocious, more open and, best of all, more ironic about manly power. They make jokes about being short and bald. In general, they’re sympathetic.

But they also get riled. The same goes for middle-aged people born after 1942 . Half the time, a sweet yogic surrender to aging seems possible; the other half we’re making a manic grab for Botox and relevancy.

The problem with Biden, Bloomberg and Sanders isn’t necessarily waning health. For all their accomplishments, they are provincials, each born at the dawn of the 1940s, five or six wars ago. They retain the regional accents of Medford, Mass., Scranton, Pa., and Brooklyn that have all but disappeared in their childhood neighborhoods, which have changed in every way.

And most of all: At a time when more than half of people in America younger than 15 are nonwhite (black, Latino, Asian and more), the geezer trio have hair and complexions the color of powdered wigs.

Their formative experiences are simply at odds with those of most voters. The mothers of these men came of age without the vote. When they grew up, Jim Crow ruled the South and pervaded every region. They were at the height of their powers in the “Mad Men” years of sex discrimination and carousing that would today be actionable, if not jailable. They were probably in their 50s when they first saw the World Wide Web.

And they seem to have lost, above all, their capacity to be taught. To learn requires a kind of submission that’s anathema to most powerful men in old age. It requires cognitive flexibility, a forfeiture of authority and a willingness to admit ignorance.



None of this appears to come easy to these three men, who seem to have convinced themselves they’ve always been right. Right on labor, gay marriage, taxes, civil rights, crime, feminism, guns and all those wars. But what are the chances they’ve been right all this time, by the standards of 2020?

If you’re over 40, think of the mystification you may still feel about the blockchain or #gamergate. That’s got to be how someone nearly 80 feels about reparations, identity politics, trans rights and #MeToo.

And there’s the rub: The old men in the race don’t instinctively grasp the dangers of nondisclosure agreements or the continuing reality of police brutality. They don’t know what they don’t know.

When Bloomberg seemed to forget whether “Politburo” was the right word for the advisors to the Chinese Communist Party, he pivoted to call it “their group of people.” And then Biden helpfully defined a “no-fly zone” as “you can’t fly through our zone.” Sanders just kept up the bluster, barely pretending to be on the ball.

The stumbles that mark these three men as holdovers rather than visionaries might be endearing in less perilous times. But we already have a kitsch geezer president — and, as America now knows, the joke wears off quickly.
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Those 21 would only get him to 249. He would have to pick up PA (would win by 1 point) or a WI and AZ pickup, to win by two points.

So this says two things. Bernie would not lose in a landslide. But on the other hand. He is probably just going to be able to eek out a tiny victory.
 
Seriously?



California

Hawaii

Vermont

Washington

Massachussetts

New York

Illinois

Maryland

Connecticut

Rhode Island



Just off the top of my head...



I challenged BEAL to say which states he would unexpectedly lose and BEAL’s response was something along the lines of “I have a feeling.”

It’s weird now to see BEAL is in fact the one challenging others to name just 10 states a democrat would win.
 
I'll say it again, Bernie will lose over 40+ states. Name the ones he'll win for sure. Don't think you can get to 10

I really can't begin to say.

al this time four years ago we had people saying similar things about a Trump candidacy

If Bernie gets elected, I don't believe the country will go down the tubes,

Ginsburg would get to retire, the Dems will calculate if it better to do it before or after 22 elections. If they have the Senate, Breyer would like to step down too.


Most of Bernies and AOC wish list will go nowhere in legislation.

We could get background checks on guns, a good thing and long overdue.


Bernie will not be able to open the border any more that Obama did. Obama put kids in cages and deported more people that Trump? is that right?


so my thoughts at this point, after Nov either Trump or Bernie will get 4 years.

I admit they are quite different, and there are many things in each of their platforms and agendas that bother me. and at this time I not sure who I will vote for.
 
I admit they are quite different, and there are many things in each of their platforms and agendas that bother me. and at this time I not sure who I will vote for.

When you see people who are politically informed and inclined say this, you know we're all fucked.
 
where i vote, the primary won't make a bit of difference, i don't think -- it's not until June, and it's a city that went 93% for Hillary.

however, what happens in SC may be determinative for me.

i do think the person i most want to see be president on that stage is Warren.

however, people aren't voting for her. they're just not. i don't know why -- although, maybe i do -- but they aren't.

because my #1 criteria is to remove Trump, followed very nearly by winning the Senate, that means i don't want her as the candidate because there is no evidence that she can draw voters into the booth.

based on 2018, i tend to think a centrist candidate who wins the suburbs will have a better chance at winning the critical states (PA, WI, MI) than will someone who drives up the NY/CA base. therefore, i look at the centrist candidates, and the one who makes the most sense on paper is Klobuchar.

but she's not drawing the excitement or the votes needed to achieve my #1 goal -- defeating Trump.

i sometimes wonder if Pete could be that centrist ... because he's as dazzlingly talented as anyone i've seen, although he lacks the soulfulness of Obama or B. Clinton. i also which he had more of a resume. if he can go off and win statewide in Indiana, then i'm in in (hopefully) 2028 or beyond.

which brings me back to the two candidates who seem capable of winning votes: Biden or Bernie.

if Biden wins SC in a blowout, then that shows me that he is capable of winning the general.

if Bernie over-performs in SC and is close to Biden, like within 5 points, then i will start to believe that he could be a successful general election candidate.

so, for me, SC is a big deal. it will probably determine who i vote for in the primary. i want a proven track record of winning in a manner that suggests general election success, and in a manner that also suggests helping win Senate seats.

two SCOTUS seats is like literally my life in the balance. if Trump appoints two more judges, my marriage could be rendered meaningless, if not dissolved altogether.

they will do that. because a certain amount of the population still hates me, and they will expect payback in a 2nd Trump term.
 
because my #1 criteria is to remove Trump, followed very nearly by winning the Senate, that means i don't want her as the candidate because there is no evidence that she can draw voters into the booth.

God knows I've said enough times here to bore everyone by now that I have zero faith in Biden's ability to run a successful campaign and pull it together. His blunders, his inability to be quick on his feet and just that general tone of "geezer" that he gives off worry me to no end.

However, if I were asked for priorities, I'd reverse the two you put forward. With a Democratic Senate and Congress, Trump is basically neutered. He will be in a position in which he has never, ever been in his life and he'll fail on every metric. The main concern would be SCOTUS.

If the choice is between Sanders running on a platform of a revolution and the whole world praying that he doesn't kill down ticket voting and a senile Biden running in conjunction with a billion dollars or more pumped in by Mike Bloomberg to buy (I have no issue with using this word, at least we're being honest for once) Senate and Congressional seats, then that may be a worthwhile thing. I know I'll get attacked for "this does nothing to move the needle and billionaires buying elections, etc" but realistically that is what happens anyway and losing RBG + likely Breyer is literally judicial suicide for 2 decades if not forever.
 
While I do think Biden is too old, I don’t think he’s been *that* bad ... and elections are choices. He’s sharper and more agile than Trump.

Of course, Trump is going to take off his pants and piss on the stage and tell the moderators to lick his balls.
 
where i vote, the primary won't make a bit of difference, i don't think -- it's not until June, and it's a city that went 93% for Hillary.

however, what happens in SC may be determinative for me.

i do think the person i most want to see be president on that stage is Warren.

however, people aren't voting for her. they're just not. i don't know why -- although, maybe i do -- but they aren't.

because my #1 criteria is to remove Trump, followed very nearly by winning the Senate, that means i don't want her as the candidate because there is no evidence that she can draw voters into the booth.

based on 2018, i tend to think a centrist candidate who wins the suburbs will have a better chance at winning the critical states (PA, WI, MI) than will someone who drives up the NY/CA base. therefore, i look at the centrist candidates, and the one who makes the most sense on paper is Klobuchar.

but she's not drawing the excitement or the votes needed to achieve my #1 goal -- defeating Trump.

i sometimes wonder if Pete could be that centrist ... because he's as dazzlingly talented as anyone i've seen, although he lacks the soulfulness of Obama or B. Clinton. i also which he had more of a resume. if he can go off and win statewide in Indiana, then i'm in in (hopefully) 2028 or beyond.

which brings me back to the two candidates who seem capable of winning votes: Biden or Bernie.

if Biden wins SC in a blowout, then that shows me that he is capable of winning the general.

if Bernie over-performs in SC and is close to Biden, like within 5 points, then i will start to believe that he could be a successful general election candidate.

so, for me, SC is a big deal. it will probably determine who i vote for in the primary. i want a proven track record of winning in a manner that suggests general election success, and in a manner that also suggests helping win Senate seats.

two SCOTUS seats is like literally my life in the balance. if Trump appoints two more judges, my marriage could be rendered meaningless, if not dissolved altogether.

they will do that. because a certain amount of the population still hates me, and they will expect payback in a 2nd Trump term.

Again, we see pretty closely eye to eye. I have to say that I think Warren would have a harder time than Bernie in the general. I don't see her doing well in the midwest/PA states we need. Throw in the sexist handicap which we know is out there, and it would be tough for her.

What i really agree on is just how important SC is now in this race.
Why?
Simply because i think it has become clear to voters that Pete, Warren and Amy are just not viable anymore. That leaves Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg moving forward, but Bloomberg obviously is not on the ballot there.
While Bernie won big in NV, and gave him a week of talk about "momentum" and front-runner and trajectory to the nomination. If Biden were to pull off a surprise large win in SC, that really would wipe that out.

I am guessing Biden might now hit around the 8-10 point win area. But if he exceeded that. Got a 15 point+ win, i think that would really turn voter sentiment around.
You would see support for those bottom 3 (and Steyer) fall quickly, as Biden suddenly becomes viable again.
If he gets around 30 delegates, he's back up near the top in delegates. And he will be the one with some momentum into Super Tuesday.

Really good breakdown of all this from 538

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...e-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/
 
Man, I don't think Bernie will win in a big way, but that's a simple answer:

Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Minnesota
Michigan
Illinois
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Maine
New Hampshire
Delaware
Maryland
DC
Virginia

There's 21

Ok. I'll bite and list the states he loses and i'll work from West coast (best coast) to East.

Trump Wins:
ID
MT
WY
UT
AZ
CO
TX
OK
KS
NE
SD
ND
MN
IA
MO
AR
LA
MS
AL
GA
FL
TN
KY
WI
IN
MI
OH
WV
VA
NC
SC
PA
AK

I'm questionable on Bernie winning NV, and NM. I could see IL being a loss too despite Chicago typically going blue.

Bernie won't win the burbs.

So not quite a 40 state prediction, but it'll be a bloodbath.
 
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