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Old 02-05-2020, 05:15 AM   #961
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The electorate is not far left. They are closer to the middle. 2018 was not a success because the Democrats ran hundreds of AOC clones. They ran the right person for the right seat. It was a strategy of winning as opposed to a strategy of ideology.

If there's a smidge of a takeaway from the disaster that is Iowa it's this... old people didn't vote for Bernie in large numbers.

So if you want Bernie to win, your expectation is that the youth vote is turning out - and that old white folks on swing states are going to vote for a socialist.

I know I know... Hillary! Hillary was an evil centrist and she lost!

Hillary was a universally disliked candidate who lost by a total vote count small enough to fit into a college football stadium... who STILL might have won if not for Anthony Weiner's Weiner. Hardly a shining example.

The #1 thing that matters in this election is victory over Trump. Period.

Democrats better realize this soon before it's too late.
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Old 02-05-2020, 05:23 AM   #962
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I've been watching Nancy ripping up the speech on repeat for the last 10 minutes.
She shouldn't have done that.

It plays right into their hands.
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Old 02-05-2020, 06:31 AM   #963
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Amazing that anyone vaguely progressive even wants to entertain the idea of crypto-Republican billionaire Bloomberg buying his way into the Democratic leadership and by extension, the Presidency.





I'm sorry, but yikes to this whole post.
Thanks!
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Old 02-05-2020, 08:53 AM   #964
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The electorate is not far left. They are closer to the middle. 2018 was not a success because the Democrats ran hundreds of AOC clones. They ran the right person for the right seat. It was a strategy of winning as opposed to a strategy of ideology.

If there's a smidge of a takeaway from the disaster that is Iowa it's this... old people didn't vote for Bernie in large numbers.

So if you want Bernie to win, your expectation is that the youth vote is turning out - and that old white folks on swing states are going to vote for a socialist.

I know I know... Hillary! Hillary was an evil centrist and she lost!
About half of Iowa voted for the progressive candidates and half for moderates + whatever leftovers from dead campaigns.

I think that a big concern with Bernie (aside from health/age) is that he's counting on a revolution from people who don't vote. Of course older people are not drawn to him - they have Medicare, they are not paying college tuition, by and large not smoking pot and not bearing child rearing expenses. And whether you think they are dinosaurs (and a lot of baby boomers are directly responsible for the various messes we are in), they show up and vote. You know who else does? the 35-55 upper middle class professionals. The revolution youth do not.

I immediately opposed Bloomberg the day he entered the race. But it's very clear that he stands to gain the most from the absolute chaos in the Democratic primary right now.
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Old 02-05-2020, 09:25 AM   #965
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About half of Iowa voted for the progressive candidates and half for moderates + whatever leftovers from dead campaigns.

I think that a big concern with Bernie (aside from health/age) is that he's counting on a revolution from people who don't vote. Of course older people are not drawn to him - they have Medicare, they are not paying college tuition, by and large not smoking pot and not bearing child rearing expenses. And whether you think they are dinosaurs (and a lot of baby boomers are directly responsible for the various messes we are in), they show up and vote. You know who else does? the 35-55 upper middle class professionals. The revolution youth do not.

I immediately opposed Bloomberg the day he entered the race. But it's very clear that he stands to gain the most from the absolute chaos in the Democratic primary right now.
Your voting comments are spot on. Only I would take a little exception to the 50/50 split on progressive/moderate result. It really was 55/43 moderate to progressive. Which is a sizeable difference.

Just to drive the point you made about age home, here is the age breakdown of Iowa caucus goers.

And remember, caucuses skew younger because of their idiotic process. I'm guessing there are a lot of 65+ folks who don't want to, or literally are unable to, attend a voting process that includes standing around for several hours and possibly sitting on a gymnasium floor.

So with that in mind, here is out it broke down

18-24 - 8%

25-29 - 10%

30-39 - 15%

40-49 - 13%

50-64 - 26%

65+ - 28%

Grouping that into two groups:

Under 40 years old = 33%
Over 40 years old = 67%

That is what we are looking at as a general rule, but probably even more skewed than that because this is a caucus. My guess is that for regular voting at the booth, you're looking at a 30/70 split.

I also was not thrilled with Bloomberg's entry. But if Joe doesn't pull through over these next few weeks, he definitely will move up my list.

I tend to think - who do I think would do a really good job at being president. Set aside all of the policy differences, but who could run the show effectively and be a solid leader.

I end up with
Warren, Bloomberg, and Styer giving me that feeling more
than Sanders or Pete.
Biden and Amy K falling sorta in the middle.

I think its funny that we have skewed our view so far left, that we call Biden, Pete, and Styer moderate/conservative, when if you really look at some of the policies they have put forward, they are what would have been considered very liberal just 6 or 8 years ago.
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Old 02-05-2020, 09:36 AM   #966
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I originally opposed all 70+ year old candidates - but short of Mayor Pete, who has some clear electability issues in the name of a giant goose egg with African American voters, there are no other options. Always been a fan of Bloomberg from his days as Mayor.. so I'm throwing my support there.

The "he's buying his way into the election" thing makes me laugh. Yea. No shit. So is everyone. That's the rules of the game. The difference is this is all his money vs a slew of corporations. I want the rules changed as much as the next guy. But they're not changing this election cycle.

The idea that he can't be bought, that he makes his own decisions based on his own mind and not special interest dollars or dear of losing a base is exactly what has always appealed to me about him. I get why it's being used against him now, but this isn't Tom Steyer. This is a candidate with actual experience running the city in the country, and one of the 20 largest economies in the world - with a GDP roughly equivalent to that or Canada.

He took over a city that was quite literally smoldering, led a city reliant upon the financial sector through the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, and left the city in a better place. Financially stable, huge reductions in crime, increase in teacher salaries, more park land, increased life expectancy at a time where it was decreasing nationally, the smoking ban (which was a big deal at the time and now seems normal), universal free Pre-K3 and pre-k4.

That's pretty miraculous if you actually consider how it could have gone in the city most directly impacted by 9/11 and the great recession.

Are there criticisms? Of course. Stop and frisk, which he's admitted he was wrong about, is one. The counter argument is that shooting deaths plummeted during this time. Alas.

Inequality will undoubtedly be used against him - as it was in de Blasio's campaign. But de Blasio hasn't been able to make much progress there, either - as this is a complex national issue that is inevitably exacerbated in cities by their very nature.

So yea, I get it. He's incredibly wealthy in a time where that's a bad thing to many. But he's also an accomplished politician, not just a guy with lots of money who's bored.

I'm not concerned over the lack of support from the Bernie or nobody crowd - as nobody is going to win them over.

But with Biden sinking like a stone, a candidate like Bloomberg could do quite well in a general.
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Old 02-05-2020, 09:51 AM   #967
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So yea, I get it. He's incredibly wealthy in a time where that's a bad thing to many. But he's also an accomplished politician, not just a guy with lots of money who's bored.

I'm not concerned over the lack of support from the Bernie or nobody crowd - as nobody is going to win them over.

But with Biden sinking like a stone, a candidate like Bloomberg could do quite well in a general.
I think that his wealth, directed at down-ballot races, could be seen as a positive.

I also think that people mistakenly assume that Warren's voters would all go the way of Bernie if or when she calls it quits, if she can't get back into this. A lot of her voters are upper middle class professionals (which is part of why the Bernie fans have been shitting on her) and I think those will go the way of Bloomberg before they will go to Bernie. I say that because I know many of them and that's their play right now. Anecdotal, but I don't think it's wildly inaccurate.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:15 AM   #968
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I originally opposed all 70+ year old candidates - but short of Mayor Pete, who has some clear electability issues in the name of a giant goose egg with African American voters, there are no other options. Always been a fan of Bloomberg from his days as Mayor.. so I'm throwing my support there.

The "he's buying his way into the election" thing makes me laugh. Yea. No shit. So is everyone. That's the rules of the game. The difference is this is all his money vs a slew of corporations. I want the rules changed as much as the next guy. But they're not changing this election cycle.

The idea that he can't be bought, that he makes his own decisions based on his own mind and not special interest dollars or dear of losing a base is exactly what has always appealed to me about him. I get why it's being used against him now, but this isn't Tom Steyer. This is a candidate with actual experience running the city in the country, and one of the 20 largest economies in the world - with a GDP roughly equivalent to that or Canada.

He took over a city that was quite literally smoldering, led a city reliant upon the financial sector through the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, and left the city in a better place. Financially stable, huge reductions in crime, increase in teacher salaries, more park land, increased life expectancy at a time where it was decreasing nationally, the smoking ban (which was a big deal at the time and now seems normal), universal free Pre-K3 and pre-k4.

That's pretty miraculous if you actually consider how it could have gone in the city most directly impacted by 9/11 and the great recession.

Are there criticisms? Of course. Stop and frisk, which he's admitted he was wrong about, is one. The counter argument is that shooting deaths plummeted during this time. Alas.

Inequality will undoubtedly be used against him - as it was in de Blasio's campaign. But de Blasio hasn't been able to make much progress there, either - as this is a complex national issue that is inevitably exacerbated in cities by their very nature.

So yea, I get it. He's incredibly wealthy in a time where that's a bad thing to many. But he's also an accomplished politician, not just a guy with lots of money who's bored.

I'm not concerned over the lack of support from the Bernie or nobody crowd - as nobody is going to win them over.

But with Biden sinking like a stone, a candidate like Bloomberg could do quite well in a general.
Very good post.

After these past few weeks with Senate trial, Iowa Caucus and SOTU address. I cannot reiterate enough, that I don't think that Sanders can be the nominee. He just can't.
And it's not his fault. Like Bloomberg being a billionaire at the wrong time, Sanders is a democratic socialist at the wrong time.
If Romney would have won, I think Bernie would have been cued up much better, but there is no fucking way with Trump.

Here's the difference with Bloomberg's problem vs. Bernie's.
Bernie's problem helps him somewhat in the primaries, but come general time, will cut against him. If the economy were in shambles, it may be different. But it is not.

Bloomberg on the other hand will get chastised in the primary for being a billionaire, but when the general comes, this will be one of his biggest assets.

And I'm not talking about his ability to outspend whatever Trump does.
I'm talking about voters. Voters will see a self made, multi-billionaire, who successfully ran one of the world's largest and most important cities, and put him up there next to Trump. Suddenly Trump starts to look like the phony piece of shit that he is. That contrast will have independents, and moderate repubs all over Bloomberg.
College educated suburbs? Forget about it. Bloomberg is the safe haven. A straight talking billionaire they can actually admit to voting for and not have to suffer through scandal after scandal after embarrassment, day in and day out.

Sure, he has areas that he will need to really work on to get a broad base of support. But I think 2018 proved that there is a goldmine of voters in the moderate range that went for Trump last time, but need someone else to vote for this time.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:20 AM   #969
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I think that his wealth, directed at down-ballot races, could be seen as a positive.

I also think that people mistakenly assume that Warren's voters would all go the way of Bernie if or when she calls it quits, if she can't get back into this. A lot of her voters are upper middle class professionals (which is part of why the Bernie fans have been shitting on her) and I think those will go the way of Bloomberg before they will go to Bernie. I say that because I know many of them and that's their play right now. Anecdotal, but I don't think it's wildly inaccurate.
And god bless Bloomberg for focusing on the down ballot races. Senate seats could be won because of him.
I know in 2016, Bernie would blast hillary on her corporate donor events. But guess what? Clinton was doing fundraisers and giving millions to the DNC for downballot races. Bernie? LOL. No.

So not only does Bernie not support the DNC which he sees as corrupt, or downballot races. He literally has the shortest coat tails of any current candidate. In fact, I think his policy stances would probably end up costing more seats than gaining them.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:24 AM   #970
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I think it's safe to say that we really aren't in the best shape to beat Trump. Which is crazy, cause he's an idiot.

But the Dems cannot unify because there's too many ideologies.

With Biden appearing on the ropes, it may be someone like Bloomberg who wins over that voter base.

The GOP are literally voting for Bernie in the open primaries. That should tell you all we need to know on how weak of a candidate they see him in the general.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:32 AM   #971
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I guess we should wait for full results, but if Bernie has blow off the barn doors in Iowa and it felt like a movement was brewing, then I’d get onboard. That’s what wins elections, and that’s exactly what Trunp did in 2016 — he became a movement that basically said “fuck you establishment/Mexicans/non-compliant women” and that was apparently inspiring to voters like Orgo and his sexy cousins.

We did not see the left wing equivalent of that, at least not yet. That ruins the theory of Bernie’s candidacy, the theory that the Very Online have convinced themsleves has been building since 2016.

If I were a Bernie Bro and if it were another candidate, I’d be tempted to say “he should resign right now, it’s disqualifying, cancel your candidacy.”

But there’s a long ways to go.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:57 AM   #972
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I guess we should wait for full results, but if Bernie has blow off the barn doors in Iowa and it felt like a movement was brewing, then I’d get onboard. That’s what wins elections, and that’s exactly what Trunp did in 2016 — he became a movement that basically said “fuck you establishment/Mexicans/non-compliant women” and that was apparently inspiring to voters like Orgo and his sexy cousins.

We did not see the left wing equivalent of that, at least not yet. That ruins the theory of Bernie’s candidacy, the theory that the Very Online have convinced themsleves has been building since 2016.

If I were a Bernie Bro and if it were another candidate, I’d be tempted to say “he should resign right now, it’s disqualifying, cancel your candidacy.”

But there’s a long ways to go.
Yup. Obviously Bernie would get my vote if he's the nominee. But no way in the primary.

And I think at this point, it looks like Bernie did not "blow the doors off" in Iowa. In fact, as much as the Sanders camp want to spin it as a huge victory, he may end up coming in second to an inexperienced moderate that he was ahead of in the polls by 13 points.

I think something that is pretty telling is that Bernie had much larger support in 2016 when going up against one establishment candidate. With Warren in the race, you see that there is a really large part of the progressive wing that happily left Bernie and are supporting Warren. And I think even some to Pete.
And as was pointed out earlier, if Pete or Warren don't make it, it's definitely not a done deal that those supporters would all go back to Bernie.

And then further complicated by the fact that Bernie's "movement" is powered by a age group that shows up at less than half the rate of those that (generally) support a more moderate candidate or vote republican.

A true movement is one like Obama put together. He brought in people from all camps and not just - we are building this progressive group over here and battling against all those that don't align with it...
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Old 02-05-2020, 11:07 AM   #973
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US Politics XVIII: the illegitimate partisan sham thread

Pete is a very good speaker. While i loathe religion and glad to see around the world people are turning away from it....it still plays a huge role in our politics

Pete speaks the gospel in a way that’s very welcoming. I do think that played very well in Iowa, and will play well in other Midwest states.

I want to see more progressive policies from our government. I’m not blind to the fact that those who control it won’t ever allow it.

The Dems need to keep their progressive agenda inside their heads and just win. Do what the fucking GOP do and get into power and rip things apart (but the catch is the Dems policies would help people )


https://twitter.com/byheatherlong/st...470532609?s=21

this type of opinion spells
Doom for big policy changes. People are happy with the economy. People don’t want to fear their insurance being changed. Look how well ACA initially went over.

People hate Trump. Run on ethics and morals.

Not socialism
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Old 02-05-2020, 11:11 AM   #974
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I guess we should wait for full results, but if Bernie has blow off the barn doors in Iowa and it felt like a movement was brewing, then I’d get onboard. That’s what wins elections, and that’s exactly what Trunp did in 2016 — he became a movement that basically said “fuck you establishment/Mexicans/non-compliant women” and that was apparently inspiring to voters like Orgo and his sexy cousins.

We did not see the left wing equivalent of that, at least not yet. That ruins the theory of Bernie’s candidacy, the theory that the Very Online have convinced themsleves has been building since 2016.

If I were a Bernie Bro and if it were another candidate, I’d be tempted to say “he should resign right now, it’s disqualifying, cancel your candidacy.”
trump lost iowa to ted "zodiac killer" cruz by over 6,000 votes, and by all accounts bernie sanders won the popular vote on monday, but go off.
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Old 02-05-2020, 11:21 AM   #975
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I mean, it’s just Iowa and there’s a long way to go, but at this point politics is like sports so why not armchair prognosticate? It gives us some sense of control, even though shot is out of control.
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Old 02-05-2020, 11:58 AM   #976
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also:

www.trumpsucks.com
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Old 02-05-2020, 01:48 PM   #977
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Old 02-05-2020, 02:03 PM   #978
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Policies and grand ideas aside, I don't know how anyone could have watched the disastrous SOTU last night or any of the impeachment hearings and not conclude that Trump has go to go even if you have to vote for a rabid chihuahua instead.
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Old 02-05-2020, 02:10 PM   #979
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Good for you, Mittens
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Old 02-05-2020, 03:28 PM   #980
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Pelosi pulling a Captain Von Trapp on Twump’s speech has nicely drawn focus away from the Iowa debacle.
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