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Old 01-22-2020, 10:10 AM   #481
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I think if Biden wins the nomination he will have to pick a VP who is more on the progressive side of the party - and considering his age, someone who should probably be on the younger side.
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Old 01-22-2020, 10:19 AM   #482
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I think if Biden wins the nomination he will have to pick a VP who is more on the progressive side of the party - and considering his age, someone who should probably be on the younger side.
I think Abrams would be a great choice. I just threw in Amy K Bangs cause i think it would solidify a win across the midwest. Biden will pull off PA, but Bangs would keep MN solid (where Trump has been thinking he would try to pick off). And I think it would be good for WI, and MI as well.

Abrams would shift the midwest play to a new southern strategy. Pick up NC, GA, and hold VA solid, possibly, put TX in play? (I know, I know) Along with engaging more minority and progressive voters nationwide. Not sure how FL will go. But having just moved from there after 11 years, it has gotten slightly redder each year. Which is baffling.
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Old 01-22-2020, 10:27 AM   #483
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Biden could win every primary/caucus and it wouldn't be settled till October.

We know what's going to happen.

It's part of the reason why I'm fed up and say let Bernie have it. We've run centrist candidates (and fucking won nearly every one minus John Kerry) and continue to get beat up for it. Let's see how a Bernie does.
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Old 01-22-2020, 10:27 AM   #484
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I think Abrams would be a great choice. I just threw in Amy K Bangs cause i think it would solidify a win across the midwest. Biden will pull off PA, but Bangs would keep MN solid (where Trump has been thinking he would try to pick off). And I think it would be good for WI, and MI as well.

Abrams would shift the midwest play to a new southern strategy. Pick up NC, GA, and hold VA solid, possibly, put TX in play? (I know, I know) Along with engaging more minority and progressive voters nationwide. Not sure how FL will go. But having just moved from there after 11 years, it has gotten slightly redder each year. Which is baffling.
AZ is in play
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Old 01-22-2020, 10:44 AM   #485
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i think Abrams is the future, but like Buttigeig and perhaps Yang, it's not quite her time yet. it will be hard to make the argument that she's prepared to be president should Old Joe have a heart attack.

assuming Biden is the nominee (or Bernie), i think it absolutely must be a female VP pick. i think Harris is young and exciting and CA will obviously elect another D Senator. she's also part of the multicultural, female D future, and she will have time to sharpen her skills and be a much more formidable candidate in the future. Klobuchar certainly, for her suburban, moderate appeal, ability to win red districts in MN and her proximity to Wisconsin. if Biden wins PA and Klobuchar helps in WI and MI, then it's over. states like AZ and GA and maybe even NC and (one day) TX become irrelevant.

the second step is looking at which ticket will inspire the downticket races the most in competitive 2020 Senate seats.
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Old 01-22-2020, 10:46 AM   #486
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let's wrap this thing up.


https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/statu...80909899894784
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Old 01-22-2020, 11:23 AM   #487
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Or instead of looking at one poll to fit what you want to see...

CNN 1/16 - 1/19 Sanders +3
Morning Consult 1/15 - 1/19 Biden +5
Monmouth 1/16 - 1/20 Biden +7
SurveyUSA 1/14 - 1/16 Biden +11
Econ/YouGov 1/11 - 1/14 Biden +7
The Hill/HarrisX 1/13 - 1/14 Biden +10
Quinnipiac 1/8 - 1/12 Biden +6



Listen, I don't care if Biden wins or Bernie wins or Warren wins. All I'm saying is that looking at the national polling and current polling of the primary states, Biden is the front runner.
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Old 01-22-2020, 12:11 PM   #488
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"please clap"

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Old 01-22-2020, 12:46 PM   #489
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US Politics XVIII: the illegitimate partisan sham thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by womanfish View Post
Or instead of looking at one poll to fit what you want to see...

CNN1/16 - 1/19 Sanders +3
Morning Consult1/15 - 1/19Biden +5
Monmouth1/16 - 1/20 Biden +7
SurveyUSA1/14 - 1/16 Biden +11
Econ/YouGov1/11 - 1/14 Biden +7
The Hill/HarrisX1/13 - 1/14Biden +10
Quinnipiac1/8 - 1/12 Biden +6



Listen, I don't care if Biden wins or Bernie wins or Warren wins. All I'm saying is that looking at the national polling and current polling of the primary states, Biden is the front runner.

Much like in 2016 with Clinton versus Trump, it’s important not to worry about (1) national polls and (2) averages of polls. More polls have Biden ahead, this is true, but the average or summation of polls has no meaning. Either one is the correct estimation of reality or the other is. It certainly looks like Biden, from the sheer amount, but those CNN polls are perfectly valid estimators that might well be correct.

Anywho, the minute those first states kick off, as we all know, we will have a clear front runner or two. There’s a great amount of momentum gained from finishing top-2 in those states, and aside from knowing Biden is likely to be top-2, everyone else seems fair game.
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Old 01-22-2020, 01:13 PM   #490
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No way should Biden (ugh, please God no) choose shaky bangs. Do we really want a repeat of Tim Kaine - yet another totally uninspiring candidate who will do absolutely nothing to drive turnout? And is the message really that the Democrats only care about the midwest when there are states in the south/southwest to be won? Talk about giving the virtual finger to everyone other than the "economically anxious" in the rust belt.

Must be a woman. A minority woman even better. And somebody who can drive turnout.

But for heaven's sake, let it not be Biden.
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Old 01-22-2020, 01:37 PM   #491
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Much like in 2016 with Clinton versus Trump, it’s important not to worry about (1) national polls and (2) averages of polls. More polls have Biden ahead, this is true, but the average or summation of polls has no meaning. Either one is the correct estimation of reality or the other is. It certainly looks like Biden, from the sheer amount, but those CNN polls are perfectly valid estimators that might well be correct.

Anywho, the minute those first states kick off, as we all know, we will have a clear front runner or two. There’s a great amount of momentum gained from finishing top-2 in those states, and aside from knowing Biden is likely to be top-2, everyone else seems fair game.
I see your point. But this is not the general. The first thing to remember is that there certainly was a "Trump effect" in the general election polling. Many people didn't want to admit they would actually planning on voting for a racist, misogynistic, pathalogical lying, mentally unstable, sexual predator. But they did in the end.

In the Dem primary polls that isn't a factor. So I think we can tend to believe the average of the polls which have Biden at an average of 7.7% ahead nationally, except for the CNN poll which is 10 points off of that, which would indicate it's an outlier.

Again, I'm all in for whomever wins. Part of me would really like to see Bernie or Warren go up against Trump in debates. And I think Bernie fights and uses strategies in a similar way as Trump, so it would get really interesting. I think both would be more interesting to watch what happens with Trump vs. Biden.
But like I said, I'm just going with the polling that I see. And right now, Bernie will have to pull off some surprises to be the nominee.
If he wins NH by a bigger margin than the polls indicate. And then would squeak out Iowa, it could be a completely different story.
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Old 01-22-2020, 01:39 PM   #492
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No way should Biden (ugh, please God no) choose shaky bangs. Do we really want a repeat of Tim Kaine - yet another totally uninspiring candidate who will do absolutely nothing to drive turnout? And is the message really that the Democrats only care about the midwest when there are states in the south/southwest to be won? Talk about giving the virtual finger to everyone other than the "economically anxious" in the rust belt.

Must be a woman. A minority woman even better. And somebody who can drive turnout.

But for heaven's sake, let it not be Biden.
Good lord Kaine was a disastrous, useless pick.
I will concede my favorite ticket since day one has been Biden/Abrams.
But a Bernie/Abrams ticket would be good as well.

Second would be Biden or Bernie/Harris
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Old 01-22-2020, 01:51 PM   #493
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State by state is much more meaningful than national polls or averages.

Going off of the CANDIDATE vs Trump polls in each battleground

Pennsylvania - Biden
Michigan - Biden/Sanders virtually tied
Florida - Biden
North Carolina - Biden
Wisconsin - Biden
Minnesota - Biden but who cares every Dem wins by a lot
Nevada - Biden
Texas (yes Texas) - Trump only leads by .5 average over Biden. Biden actually wins in 2 polls.


So whether people like it or not - Biden is the clear favorite right now in the only states that matter. Largely because his #1 message has been and continues to be the one that resonates most with voters - beating Trump.

Not health care.

Not guns.

Not the environment.

Not trade.

Beating Donald Trump.

This is a one issue race.

This is not to say that the issues at hand don't matter, or that they shouldn't be given more of a priority. But the #1 thing people will be voting on in this election is, by far, Donald Trump.

EVERY ELECTION IN WHICH THERE'S AN INCUMBENT IS A REFERENDUM ON THE INCUMBENT.

Whomever the ultimate candidate is needs to remember this.

It's not about why my health care plan is better than yours, it's about why it's better than DONALD TRUMP.

it's not about why my ideas on trade are better than yours, it's about HOLY SHIT, HAVE YOU SEEN DONALD TRUMP??

I know there's a common line of thought that Trump is merely a symptom of the republican party and not the disease - and that may be true in the abstract sense - but that's not what the general electorate believes. They believe he's a cancer and needs to be eliminated (or they believe he's the best thing since sliced gzus).
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Old 01-22-2020, 02:02 PM   #494
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So whether people like it or not - Biden is the clear favorite right now in the only states that matter. Largely because his #1 message has been and continues to be the one that resonates most with voters - beating Trump.

Not health care.

Not guns.

Not the environment.

Not trade.

Beating Donald Trump.

This is a one issue race.

This is not to say that the issues at hand don't matter, or that they shouldn't be given more of a priority. But the #1 thing people will be voting on in this election is, by far, Donald Trump.

EVERY ELECTION IN WHICH THERE'S AN INCUMBENT IS A REFERENDUM ON THE INCUMBENT.

Whomever the ultimate candidate is needs to remember this.

It's not about why my health care plan is better than yours, it's about why it's better than DONALD TRUMP.

it's not about why my ideas on trade are better than yours, it's about HOLY SHIT, HAVE YOU SEEN DONALD TRUMP??

I know there's a common line of thought that Trump is merely a symptom of the republican party and not the disease - and that may be true in the abstract sense - but that's not what the general electorate believes. They believe he's a cancer and needs to be eliminated (or they believe he's the best thing since sliced gzus).
and this is exactly how you're going to get a D presidency in which absolutely no fundamental changes are made to fix the obviously broken systems in your country, so that another, less clearly-demented (but still just as awful in policy terms) republican gets elected easily in 2024.
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Old 01-22-2020, 02:22 PM   #495
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Originally Posted by anitram View Post
No way should Biden (ugh, please God no) choose shaky bangs. Do we really want a repeat of Tim Kaine - yet another totally uninspiring candidate who will do absolutely nothing to drive turnout? And is the message really that the Democrats only care about the midwest when there are states in the south/southwest to be won? Talk about giving the virtual finger to everyone other than the "economically anxious" in the rust belt.

Must be a woman. A minority woman even better. And somebody who can drive turnout.

But for heaven's sake, let it not be Biden.



Her gender alone may provide some of that turnout inspiration that Sen. Dad Jokes couldn’t.
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Old 01-22-2020, 02:28 PM   #496
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and this is exactly how you're going to get a D presidency in which absolutely no fundamental changes are made to fix the obviously broken systems in your country, so that another, less clearly-demented (but still just as awful in policy terms) republican gets elected easily in 2024.


But Trump will be gone. There is no long game here. Trump must go. The demographics get worse and worse for Republicans the further into the future we go.

And “fundamental changes” won’t happen until the Senate is flipped.

Only one Republican has won the popular vote since 1988. We need to keep this in mind. Americans want their presidents democrats, and their changes real but incremental. We get a D president and a D Senate, and there will be a public option and some version of a Green New Deal by 2024. And that’s how lives are changed.
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Old 01-22-2020, 03:06 PM   #497
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Adam Schiff just said that America is not just a country, it's an idea
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Old 01-22-2020, 03:33 PM   #498
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Omg this is a dream come true-CNN is using George Conway as an analyst of the trial.
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Old 01-22-2020, 03:57 PM   #499
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Can he interview his wife ??
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Old 01-22-2020, 04:02 PM   #500
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https://twitter.com/jonward11/status...429041665?s=21

There’s no fear of consequences
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