US Politics XVII: Yes, squid pro row

[womanfish]

according to this poll, bevin was winning by almost 16 points as recently as last weekend, before trump made an appearance at bevin's rally on monday. make of that what you will.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1v7FI6EDsEFMyrauwT3oGBMIcENE93KyY/view

also for all you who are freaking out about suburban voters and swing states, delaware county PA just went democrat for the first time since the civil war, and it was damn near a clean sweep. make of that what you will.

https://twitter.com/TajPHL/status/1191933590256394240

on the first part. That's pretty incredible. And I think you really land this right on Trump's shoulders, because of the other poll included in that link. Attorney General. You will notice that the final numbers for the AG race mirror almost exactly what the outcome was.
But the candidate that Trump went out to stump for - lost 16 points off that poll number.

That is astounding. And hearing that GOP senators and donors are starting to freak out a bit after seeing the result last night.

For the second part. WOW is all i can say. That is a crazy shift to blue.
Can you explain a little further. When you say - for those freaking out about the suburbs...
Not sure what you mean. I'm not familiar with the make up of Delaware County, so that might be part of my confusion.

 

[womanfish]

also I'm going to put this in all caps. But

IF THERE IS ANYONE HERE THAT CAN PLEASE HELP TO GET OUT THE VOTE FOR EDWARDS IN LOUISIANA NOVEMBER 16TH - IT IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT! IF YOU LIVE IN LA, PLEASE , KNOCK ON DOORS, DRIVE PEOPLE TO POLLS, WHATEVER YOU CAN.

IF YOU ARE NOT FROM LA, PLEASE PHONE BANK, TEXT BANK, DONATE, WHATEVER.

THIS WOULD BE A HUGE SIGNAL TO SENATORS AND GOP THAT THE VOTERS ARE NOT TURNING BACK TO THEM BECAUSE OF IMPEACHMENT.
IMAGINE DEMOCRATS, YES DEMOCRATS, WINNING BIG IN VIRGINIA, KENTUCKY AND LOUISIANA OVER A THREE WEEK PERIOD.

TRUMP OF COURSE IS HEADED THERE SOON TO TRY AND BOOST UP THE VOTE. HELPING EDWARDS WIN WILL LET YOU PERSONALLY FEEL LIKE YOU SHIT IN TRUMPS BIG MAC.

THANK YOU ALL

 

[BEAL]

I think we need more data to really understand what happened.

Is it that Trump is so fucking Toxic that you could run ANYONE against him and they beat him?

Is it that having a candidate not talk about impeachment, M4A (replacing insurance scare), and/or having policies that sit more center than to the left?

Is it both?

I want to see how a progressive would do leading this country. But it doesn't matter if the entire state of CA, WA, OR, and NY vote 100% blue. If people in the RustBelt states fear too much change to healthcare (especially to immigrants), free college (to ungrateful little bastards!!), and higher taxes (despite being on the uber rich) Trump will win.

I hate it. My parents are one of those types. They fear Warren's / Bernie's plan. Who's gonna pay for it?? Yet these type of questions aren't asked of the GOP, which isn't fair. To be fair to my parents, they absolutely will not vote for Trump/GOP. But there are many who would say fuck it, i can't pull the level for blue

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

It's about running the right candidate in the right district.

There is no one size fits all solution.

 

[womanfish]

Question.
Why is the DNC not pouring money, like every cent of money, into the Senate Race in KY?
Maybe they are and i just don't know it, but i haven't heard a damn thing,

You have a viable candidate to take out McTurtle. For real. He has an 18% approval rating there. They need to be pounding KY with money and feet on the ground. Taking out McConnell would almost guarantee Dems would control the Sentate, but hey NO McConnell! Even if Trump somehow wins in 2020, without the Senate, it would be our best safeguard of actually holding our Democracy together in some form.

Am I off base here?

 

[womanfish]

Just so you know what we are up against:

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/11/pe...someone-on-fifth-avenue-to-know-he-was-wrong/

 

[womanfish]

also for all you who are freaking out about suburban voters and swing states, delaware county PA just went democrat for the first time since the civil war, and it was damn near a clean sweep. make of that what you will.

https://twitter.com/TajPHL/status/1191933590256394240

Whoa, also just saw this about the same Delaware County election:

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1191927308426326017

 

[DaveC]

For the second part. WOW is all i can say. That is a crazy shift to blue.
Can you explain a little further. When you say - for those freaking out about the suburbs...
Not sure what you mean. I'm not familiar with the make up of Delaware County, so that might be part of my confusion.

i'm referring to those who are frequently fretting over the idea that the suburbs will panic and vote for trump/GOP if anyone left of biden is the nominee. admittedly this is only one district but it's one of the most solid red districts in the whole country completely flipping in one of the swingiest of swing states, and it's not some tiny district of like 100 voters, gerrymandered to hell, or a weird outlier in terms of demographics. it's the 5th largest county in PA and the median income and racial makeup are pretty much right around the national averages.

this could all be completely meaningless. but it could also indicate that the race in the suburbs is not nearly as close as it's being made out to be.

 

[Hewson]

They need to be pounding KY

 

[Irvine511]

It's about running the right candidate in the right district.

There is no one size fits all solution.

I would add to this — Bevin was hated because he was trying to dismantle the ACA in a state where it had actually been implemented really well, thanks to a blue governor.

I know the ACA killed the D’s in the 2010 midterms. Because change is scary.

But now, 10 years later, it’s popular. Preserving and expanding the ACA is what won the 2018 midterms for the D’s.

And that’s what will win in 2020. Obamacare. Making it bigger and making it work better.

 

[Irvine511]

this could all be completely meaningless. but it could also indicate that the race in the suburbs is not nearly as close as it's being made out to be.

It’s not that it’s close in the suburbs. It isn’t. Trump is getting crushed in the suburbs. It’s that the suburbs are home to lots and lots of voters, reliable voters, and they tend to be increasingly socially liberal and don’t love guns, they are more conomically conservative because they tend to have good jobs and health care — and they hate Trumps vile, rape-y demeanor. It’s continuing to run up the score in the suburbs that’s inportant for 2020.

 

[Irvine511]

For a good pounding you need something better than trash KY.

 

[womanfish]

i'm referring to those who are frequently fretting over the idea that the suburbs will panic and vote for trump/GOP if anyone left of biden is the nominee. admittedly this is only one district but it's one of the most solid red districts in the whole country completely flipping in one of the swingiest of swing states, and it's not some tiny district of like 100 voters, gerrymandered to hell, or a weird outlier in terms of demographics. it's the 5th largest county in PA and the median income and racial makeup are pretty much right around the national averages.

this could all be completely meaningless. but it could also indicate that the race in the suburbs is not nearly as close as it's being made out to be.

Cool. That gives me some perspective.
I agree, that the suburban slide as they are calling it - is very real, and I think GA and TX will be some of the most interesting results we will see in 2020. Not saying they will flip, but i believe they could with the right candidate and vp combo.

I disagree a bit, that the suburbs will turn out as heavily for Dems if they don't have a candidate to vote for that makes them comfortable. KY went to Dem for the Gov race because Beshear was moderate and stood behind the ACA and Medicaid expansion and that Bevin was trying to cut.
Not saying a more left Dem wouldn't do well, but I just don't think AS well.

Here's another blue wave tidbit i ran across that backs up even more of what you are saying

https://twitter.com/johndissauer/status/1191893119190675456

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

i'm referring to those who are frequently fretting over the idea that the suburbs will panic and vote for trump/GOP if anyone left of biden is the nominee. admittedly this is only one district but it's one of the most solid red districts in the whole country completely flipping in one of the swingiest of swing states, and it's not some tiny district of like 100 voters, gerrymandered to hell, or a weird outlier in terms of demographics. it's the 5th largest county in PA and the median income and racial makeup are pretty much right around the national averages.

this could all be completely meaningless. but it could also indicate that the race in the suburbs is not nearly as close as it's being made out to be.

Can anyone shed some light as to whether or not the candidates who won in DelCo and Bucks were further to the left or more moderate Democrats? I know Philly had a bunch of progressive wins, but cities and suburbs are different animals.

I think these wins, plus Virgina and Kentucky, show more than anything that the #1 issue on voter's minds in 2020 is Trump.

Also, it you're out there orgwirirofeorpppia... haha your county went blue you Nazi fuck.

 

[womanfish]

Can anyone shed some light as to whether or not the candidates who won in DelCo and Bucks were further to the left or more moderate Democrats? I know Philly had a bunch of progressive wins, but cities and suburbs are different animals.

I think these wins, plus Virgina and Kentucky, show more than anything that the #1 issue on voter's minds in 2020 is Trump.

Also, it you're out there orgwirirofeorpppia... haha your county went blue you Nazi fuck.

I also think you have to look at what other factors were in play. Kentucky for instance literally had decisions on pieces of the ACA on the ballot. And Bevin had dismantled Medicaid expansion after the previous Gov had put it in place.
So in a broader context, think about how in 2010, the ACA was toxic and turned out Repubs and subdued the Dem vote.
In 9 years, we have won over these huge swaths of the country that now overwhelmingly support the ACA and Medicaid expansions. This is what will be important to not just the suburbs, but even more so in rural parts of states. This was borne out the midterms, where you saw the ACA and Medicaid be real issues that softened GOP support in previously hard core red rural areas.

This was shown to be a part of success in KY - Steve Kornacki just showed an Eastern county in Kentucky - a coal centric county, that went to Trump by 52 points!
Beshear didn't just do better, he WON that county by 10. So a 62 point shift from Trump to Beshear in 3 years.

Now it helps that Beshear can personally visit these types of communities and sit down with them and talk with them. Like you said, politics is local and having the right candidate for the right area is key.
That's not really possible on a Presidential level. But i think you need someone that the voters in those areas can feel understands them and will work on things important to their lives.
Again why I see Biden and possibly Bernie being the two that can pull that off.
Now, its not like they are going to win Kentucky, but NC, GA, TX, AZ, Iowa, OH, etc... are all places that if the right candidate is out there, could be in play. Those are off the table if we don't have a candidate with wide appeal.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I take it you don't have kids.A thousand percent.

I haven't found the actual bill but just read a few articles on the proposal. It's not actually extending the school day, rather looking to establish a sort of "aftercare for all" program - which is an unbelievably good idea, and one that will resonate with every single household where both parents work.

The only shame of it is that it's coming from a candidate who doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

The issue is that extending work hours, in most workplaces, doesn’t prove to be productive.

Businesses find optimality in trading workforce size with average labor per employee.

Rather than encouraging parents to work longer hours, we should be focused more on getting quality hours out of them, and instead letting them pick their kids up. Less unnecessary government spending that can be used for other things, happier workers, morally less negative.

 

[BEAL]

https://twitter.com/mcfaul/status/1192125271899402240?s=21

Didn’t see junior doing it

 

[womanfish]

https://twitter.com/mcfaul/status/1192125271899402240?s=21

Didn’t see junior doing it

yeah, my guess is that they have been physically holding back Trump's orange stubby thumbs from tweeting this out. So he just told Jr. to do it.

I'm guessing some laws should be enforced here.

 

[anitram]

Omg yes please! Right now I have my daughter in a before school YMCA program for $200 per month while posting for my son’s daycare as well. Any kind of support in this area would be huge.

I pay $625 a month for before and after school care for my son....so this seems like a bargain to me. Don’t even ask what my daughter’s daycare costs.

 

[womanfish]

More:

Wichata KS. Mayoral race - Dem unseated GOP incumbent by 10 points.

Also, it looks like many of the wins in VA came from Dem candidates that ran to preserve Medicaid expansion and protect the ACA.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The issue is that extending work hours, in most workplaces, doesn’t prove to be productive.

Businesses find optimality in trading workforce size with average labor per employee.

Rather than encouraging parents to work longer hours, we should be focused more on getting quality hours out of them, and instead letting them pick their kids up. Less unnecessary government spending that can be used for other things, happier workers, morally less negative.

That's great and all. Let me explain that to my boss

This plan doesn't extend parents work hours. It bases it around a typical 9 to 5 work day (8 am for drop off, 6 pm pick up for the kids - which is exactly what my 5 y/o's $1,700 a month preschool is now).

In a perfect world? Sure - job's should be more flexible with hours and allow parents to come later and leave earlier to get their kids.

That's not reality.

My bosses are actually very reasonable and understanding - and between my salary and my wife's (mostly my wife's) the issue of leaving our kids at preschool until 6 or with the nanny until 6 is doable. Expensive as all fuck, but we're in a place where we can afford it with minimal impact on our day to day. We couldn't afford it in NY anymore - which is why we moved. Alas..

This plan is a common sense approach that will give parents in middle and low income situations a little peace of mind. I see no fault in it whatsoever.

 

[Irvine511]

fox news is much more concerned with mormon murders in mexico than what election?

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Just so you know what we are up against:

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/11/pe...someone-on-fifth-avenue-to-know-he-was-wrong/

Lord.

I'd like to hope they look back on these comments one day and realize how utterly stupid they sound, but...yeah.

On a positive note, YAY at all the Democratic wins across the country yesterday . Please, God, let this be a sign of what to expect next year.

 

[Danny Boy]

This picture of Moscow Mitch on CNN looks way too much like Palpatine.

 

[womanfish]

So the Bill Taylor testimony is pretty... wow. I mean, you can't get more straight-forward than this.

Bill Taylor: "President Trump did insist that President Zelensky go to a microphone and say he is opening investigations of Biden and 2016 election interference, and that President Zelensky should want to do this himself."

Bill Taylor: "All that the OMB staff person said was that the directive had come from the President ... In an instant, I realized that one of the key pillars of our strong support for Ukraine was threatened. The irregular policy channel was running contrary to" U.S. policy goals.

"As Ambassador Sondland was preparing for a call between President Trump and President Zelensky on June 28, 2019, he 'cut out' the regular interagency participants and 'requested that the call not be transcribed.'"


Q: So if they don't do this, they are not going to get that was your understanding?
TAYLOR: Yes, sir.
Q: Are you aware that quid pro quo literally means this for that?
TAYLOR: I am.

 

[womanfish]

Beshear did great for a Dem virtually everywhere in KY, but the one region most responsible for Bevin's defeat was Northern Kentucky.

Here's pro-Dem margin shift from 2015:

Boone Co.: +21.1%
Kenton Co.: +19.9%
Campbell Co: +18.5%

Statewide: +9.4%

 

[Irvine511]

Beshear did great for a Dem virtually everywhere in KY, but the one region most responsible for Bevin's defeat was Northern Kentucky.

Here's pro-Dem margin shift from 2015:

Boone Co.: +21.1%
Kenton Co.: +19.9%
Campbell Co: +18.5%

Statewide: +9.4%

Hoping this indicates good things for Ohio next year.

 

[dazzledbylight]

I take it you don't have kids.A thousand percent.

I haven't found the actual bill but just read a few articles on the proposal. It's not actually extending the school day, rather looking to establish a sort of "aftercare for all" program - which is an unbelievably good idea, and one that will resonate with every single household where both parents work.

The only shame of it is that it's coming from a candidate who doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

No kids, and I think it's a really good idea. One less big stressor!
Maybe one of the others will run with it.

I would add to this — Bevin was hated because he was trying to dismantle the ACA in a state where it had actually been implemented really well, thanks to a blue governor.

I know the ACA killed the D’s in the 2010 midterms. Because change is scary.

But now, 10 years later, it’s popular. Preserving and expanding the ACA is what won the 2018 midterms for the D’s.

And that’s what will win in 2020. Obamacare. Making it bigger and making it work better.

It’s not that it’s close in the suburbs. It isn’t. Trump is getting crushed in the suburbs. It’s that the suburbs are home to lots and lots of voters, reliable voters, and they tend to be increasingly socially liberal and don’t love guns, they are more conomically conservative because they tend to have good jobs and health care — and they hate Trumps vile, rape-y demeanor. It’s continuing to run up the score in the suburbs that’s inportant for 2020.

Interesting.

Here's another blue wave tidbit i ran across that backs up even more of what you are saying

https://twitter.com/johndissauer/status/1191893119190675456

Hah!

The issue is that extending work hours, in most workplaces, doesn’t prove to be productive.

Businesses find optimality in trading workforce size with average labor per employee.

Rather than encouraging parents to work longer hours, we should be focused more on getting quality hours out of them, and instead letting them pick their kids up. Less unnecessary government spending that can be used for other things, happier workers, morally less negative.

Sorry i don't remember who, but i read a few days ago about some company experimenting with a 6 hour work day.

https://twitter.com/mcfaul/status/1192125271899402240?s=21

Didn’t see junior doing it

That tweet has been deleted.

On a positive note, YAY at all the Democratic wins across the country yesterday . Please, God, let this be a sign of what to expect next year.

This picture of Moscow Mitch on CNN looks way too much like Palpatine.

QUICK, someone grab the Photoshop!
...remove glasses, add wrinkles, and black hood, outfit.
Now, where is Sicy when we need her? I believe it was she who said...

"I'm bored. Give me something to photoshop. "



Senate Republicans consider including Bidens in Trump impeachment trial
Rachael Bade, Robert Costa 6 hrs ago

Arg. More smoke, and mirrors!

 

[BVS]

Kamala Harris just released a breathtakingly stupid proposal to increase the length of the school day in order to reduce productivity losses for parents at work. Just reading it has me looking for the nearest window to toss my computer out of.

So exactly what do you have against computers?

 

[womanfish]

It truly never, ever, ever ends. It's like digging in a landfill, you just keep hitting globs of smelly trash.

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1192133194482700291

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1192133933846138880

https://twitter.com/dfriedman33/status/1192125010116333568