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Old 10-25-2019, 01:58 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
so now we're certain that warren has no hope of coming close in several states that trump barely won, he going to flip nevada against her, and in the midwestern states that he won by a combined margin smaller than the crowd at a football game, it's going to be just as close this time around as the last time was, despite four years of him being by far the most unpopular president in modern history? lol okay.
Well, i'm just going by the numbers we have.

WI - Warren is up a couple points over Trump
NV - Trump up over Warren
MI - Warren up 4
NC - Tied
PA - Warren up 3
Iowa - Trump up 3
NV - Trump up 1

This is before the general, where we know, that Trump will find something to use against Warren. It will be repeated over and over, amplified by the media as being this huge thing that is somehow on par with Trump, the worst human to breathe air.
Her numbers will go down, that is just how the general goes.

Being tied, or up by a couple points isn't going to cut it.

Now, I do have hope that what brought about the wins in 2018, will be the thing that turns all this on its head. Trump has plummeted in support in the suburbs. White college educated women may well be the firewall that saves our country.
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Old 10-25-2019, 02:08 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
no one is certain.
except someone literally said "no way she wins (list of states)". that sounds like certainty to me.

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Well, i'm just going by the numbers we have.

WI - Warren is up a couple points over Trump
NV - Trump up over Warren
MI - Warren up 4
NC - Tied
PA - Warren up 3
Iowa - Trump up 3
NV - Trump up 1
can you provide a link for these polls please?

also please explain how "warren up by 3" in PA translates to "no way she wins" there.
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Old 10-25-2019, 02:16 PM   #183
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except someone literally said "no way she wins (list of states)". that sounds like certainty to me.



can you provide a link for these polls please?

also please explain how "warren up by 3" in PA translates to "no way she wins" there.
They are all on realclearpolitics

If you think a 3 point lead in PA at this point, is going to translate as a solid win after a year of getting hammered in the general, that's up to you. She's doing better there currently than i thought. I just think if she continues to be weak with minority voters AND white rural voters, then PA is not going to be an easy win for her.
The hopeful caveat being that the suburbs will come through in a big way for her.

And to be clear, at this point, I want Warren to be the nominee. But I can't help but have a sinking feeling in my gut when I think of weaknesses she may have in certain important states when up against Trump.
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Old 10-25-2019, 03:26 PM   #184
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Black voters have simply not deviated from standard rates of voting in the last 20-30 years...

wasn't the lower enthusiasm for Hillary vs. Obama part of why she lost in 2016? it's impossible to expect identical rates for these two candidates, but i guess you mean that Hillary's rates are about the same as her husband's and John Kerry's.
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Old 10-25-2019, 03:35 PM   #185
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wasn't the lower enthusiasm for Hillary vs. Obama part of why she lost in 2016? it's impossible to expect identical rates for these two candidates, but i guess you mean that Hillary's rates are about the same as her husband's and John Kerry's.
Yeah, the problem was they fell 7 points from 2012 to 2016. So throw that in the mix of Clinton losing three states by between one quarter and three quarters percent, and you see why a drop off like that spelled disaster.
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Old 10-25-2019, 03:37 PM   #186
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wow

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...99931734986753

And please stop shitting on Hillary

https://twitter.com/EvanMcMullin/sta...23058427187200

Shit on her instead

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1187544241427214336
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Old 10-25-2019, 05:02 PM   #187
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shade we can believe in

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Old 10-25-2019, 05:52 PM   #188
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a 2018 repeat is what is needed. but who can pull this off? my hope is that HRC's relatively unique personal baggage accumulated over 30 years of public life combined with Trumps' blank-slate-ness made the difference in 2016, and since his approval ratings are shit, 2016 was a black swan event. and that more people than not are going to want this reality show to be cancelled.
This. My big hope is that Trump won't even be a factor next year at all, 'cause his ass will be out of the White House by then. I really don't want him to even still be here come election time next year.

But I don't know how likely that will be. So I share your hopes as well, but I also understand the deep concern. I think most Americans are more than ready to get Trump the hell out of here. My problem is that the GOP is clearly already trying to manipulate the election in their favor, to where it won't matter how many Americans vote against him at the end of the day. We need to talk more about how we as voters can try and combat that.
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Old 10-25-2019, 08:11 PM   #189
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I think most Americans are more than ready to get Trump the hell out of here. My problem is that the GOP is clearly already trying to manipulate the election in their favor, to where it won't matter how many Americans vote against him at the end of the day. We need to talk more about how we as voters can try and combat that.
What do you have in mind?
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Old 10-25-2019, 10:13 PM   #190
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wasn't the lower enthusiasm for Hillary vs. Obama part of why she lost in 2016? it's impossible to expect identical rates for these two candidates, but i guess you mean that Hillary's rates are about the same as her husband's and John Kerry's.


Yes. The Obama years were unique outliers. But in the context of every other D candidate (Clinton, Kerry, Gore) the numbers are unchanged. My implication is that Biden cannot and will not get Obama’s numbers and likely won’t do better or worse than other candidates.
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Old 10-25-2019, 10:51 PM   #191
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Gotta agree with Mikal here. Pelosi has to walk an extremely fine line. She could put forward some sort of condemnation of their action in the house or whatever, but having people arrested would feed right into their hands. They are already calling it an unconstitutional power grab. If there were arrests. Dear god. I think some of the independents out there that are now on board with impeachment would be fooled by this and think, wow, arresting people for wanting more transparency??!! This is outrageous!

I had that same reaction at first - arrest these idiots - eject them, censure them, whatever. But I think that they already looked incredibly foolish and childish and didn't sway anyone on the fence with their stunt.
I was also angry at first that and they didn't punish those republcans, but glad NP held back. They would have been regarded as martyrs on some level.

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.

And then you see his supporters post insane things like "I'd rather have 1 year of Bernie than 8 years of Warren" (how divorced from reality do you have to be?). Do they not see Donald fucking Trump on TV every day, engaging in 10 different sorts of criminality before noon on the regular?
When i hear that kind of talk i just want to scream. I mean isn't one major tenebt of being a progressive or democratic socialist is being compassionate in actionq, esp towards various marginalized groups (even as a majority- ie women) and increasing fairness, justice, bettering basic needs -shelter, food, healthcare up to a basic good level.

Which will further decrease if Trump stays in office till the election and then wins (shudders) in 2020.

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There is only one candidate who I believe could build the sort of movement that could actually enact change. Electoral politics cannot get everything done on their own. And only Sanders could actually rally laborers, young people, and non-voters to make real change possible.

I wish there was a younger candidate without health concerns running who had the same vision. There isn't.
So, thrn, you're willing to sacrifice more people to food insecurity, homelessness, illness, death because no one else "fits" your Bernie criteria?

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If you continue to let people break the law and face no consequences, eventually you’ll be the one locked up because you have no more power

Stop worrying about optics and follow the law. His base is going to scream and shoot people regardless.
Yeah, probably. Definitely agree with your opening sentence.

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Interesting.

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This scares me too, but at some point people have to take a stand. Warren's policies would do more for the minority communities than another GOP term.

Wouldn't you want to get a white supremacist out of the government over having your #1 pick win the primary and challenge?

I think Bernie is shady as fuck, even with agreeing with his overall message. But if he's on the ticket in 2020, there's not an ounce of hesitation. He's my President.

I'll worry about whatever after he's in office, but I know there's no possible way things could be worse than they're going now
Pretty much agree here. I like Bernie. Why do you think he's "shady"?

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no one is certain. people are worried.

consider all that this president has done, all that he has destroyed, all the crimes he has committed.

still, 40% of the country won't hear any different.

it has to concern people.

i really, really hope you're right, and that the usual calculus of political science applies this time.
I tpthink it's closer to 35% - 30%. I think it used to be 40%.

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It's worth noting (again) that black voters, and even more specifically, black women have voted in BASICALLY IDENTICAL RATES since the Clinton era. Every election. No matter who the D nominee was.

This is a very reliable voting group and Donald Trump has absolutely zero crossover appeal to them. Currently he's at a -80 or so net approval rating.

I understand the concern at the primary level - if Warren wants to win, she needs to do better with the minority vote. But it's completely and totally unrelated to the general election. Black voters have simply not deviated from standard rates of voting in the last 20-30 years...
Black women are pretty much the backbone of the Democratic Party.
But lets here it for some white women who always voted Democratic, too- as far as the Presidential race- like me.

I only volunteered 2xs for Republicans in local, and Senate races - and these were genuine Liberal Republicans back in ? 69, and 70 because the Democratic candidates were so conservative on social issues.
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Old 10-25-2019, 11:42 PM   #192
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from business insider
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L
'Who gives a s--- about Afghanistan?': Trump stunned officials with his comments during a military briefing, former aide says


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Old 10-25-2019, 11:48 PM   #193
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Someone said on either Joy Reed, RM, or Laurence ODonelkls shiw

peopke need to start marching fir impeachment
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Old 10-26-2019, 07:14 AM   #194
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Pretty much agree here. I like Bernie. Why do you think he's "shady"?

.

We don’t really know much about him other than what he’s been willing to release. He didnt release all of his tax returns (think only a few years, maybe a decade) where others have released over 20 years

What he did release showed he is a millionaire, but claims it was from writing a book. Guess it’s that easy.

He’s taken no heat in his health, where compare Hillary was accused of being a walking seizure and needed secret service to administer “shots” on the fly. Remember when she nearly fainted and the news cycle wouldn’t shut up about her health and ability to lead??

Bernie had a heart attack and we still don’t know how healthy he really is. Think Clinton would have gotten away with it ?

Bernie was never attacked in 2016, and we all know the GOP has a giant book of attacks waiting for him.

Again, if he beats warren and Biden he’s my guy. The same worries about Warren and the minority community remain (and so does my thought of why can’t you vote this one time!!!???)

I have another worry about his ability to win over moderates and independents. Aside from the “squad” nearly all the 2018 Democrats House gains were by Moderates.

I wish more people could believe in M4A, or student loan wipe out....but people are selfish (and stupid) and unfortunately our politicians have to cater to that
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Old 10-26-2019, 08:22 AM   #195
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shade we can believe in
I approve. Do you know who that was? Of course people would say that wasn't in the spirit of who Elijah Cummings was as a man. But I say it was morally correct. I wish I could have seen the service, maybe I can find it somewhere in entirety. Other than on You Tube.
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Old 10-26-2019, 08:23 AM   #196
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The Giuliani butt dial story is hilarious. You just can't make this stuff up.
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Old 10-26-2019, 08:28 AM   #197
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Bobby Rankin is the pallbearer
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Old 10-26-2019, 09:18 AM   #198
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Yes. The Obama years were unique outliers. But in the context of every other D candidate (Clinton, Kerry, Gore) the numbers are unchanged. My implication is that Biden cannot and will not get Obama’s numbers and likely won’t do better or worse than other candidates.


Despite the fact that he was Obama’s very own VP and is closely associated with the Obama years?
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Old 10-26-2019, 10:11 AM   #199
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Despite the fact that he was Obama’s very own VP and is closely associated with the Obama years?
I think this very much depends on his VP pick if he is the nominee. I really think a Biden/Abrams ticket would be unstoppable. Biden will do well with African American voters, but probably on par with Clinton, with an added boost from a more excited base to remove Trump. Add in Abrams who would bring even more excitement and turnout and you have Biden picking up the midwest and PA, and with Abrams picking up NC, keep VA solid, I think very real possibility of flipping GA and FL. Hell, OH could even be in play.
If that were to be the result, even without OH, they would win in a 333 to 198 landslide.
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Old 10-26-2019, 10:12 AM   #200
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Despite the fact that he was Obama’s very own VP and is closely associated with the Obama years?


Yes.

Those things explain why he polls better than others in the primary.

The enthusiasm numbers are not at Obama levels and that will track into the general.
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