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Old 09-15-2019, 03:42 PM   #961
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On a side note, it’s been interesting watching the dormant Bernie Bros awaken post-debate and start to focus their “attentions” on Warren.

I wonder, if she’s the nominee, will we get the same tantrums like we did in 2016?
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Old 09-15-2019, 06:16 PM   #962
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Now, now...
Apologies.

I'm not a fancy 12 figure lib lawyer like anitram so I'm not as eloquent with my words.
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Old 09-15-2019, 06:35 PM   #963
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Apologies.

I'm not a fancy 12 figure lib lawyer like anitram so I'm not as eloquent with my words.


I haven’t made so little money in a decade.

15 figures or bust.
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Old 09-15-2019, 06:47 PM   #964
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If Warren is the nominee

What could the far left / Bernie or bust crowd really go after her for

She doesn’t speak for Wall Street
No emails
Not a warmonger
Husband isn’t a creep and despised pol

Wouldn’t she be perfect ? I would
Hope the African American crowd would rally around her. I don’t get their support for Biden
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Old 09-16-2019, 02:19 AM   #965
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I haven’t made so little money in a decade.

15 figures or bust.
Does that include your monthly check from Soros?
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Old 09-16-2019, 05:20 AM   #966
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
On a side note, it’s been interesting watching the dormant Bernie Bros awaken post-debate and start to focus their “attentions” on Warren.

I wonder, if she’s the nominee, will we get the same tantrums like we did in 2016?

Who?


Quote:
Originally Posted by BEAL View Post
If Warren is the nominee

What could the far left / Bernie or bust crowd really go after her for

She doesn’t speak for Wall Street
No emails
Not a warmonger
Husband isn’t a creep and despised pol

Wouldn’t she be perfect ? I would
Hope the African American crowd would rally around her. I don’t get their support for Biden

The vast majority of Bernie supporters would be able to deal with a Warren nomination, she's the next furthest left to him lmao
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Old 09-16-2019, 08:56 AM   #967
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Who?
On Twitter, of course. And we’ve seen the outline of the argument against her already sketched out. I expect it’s intensity to grow as she continues to do well.



Quote:
The vast majority of Bernie supporters would be able to deal with a Warren nomination, she's the next furthest left to him lmao


Do you feel as if the “vast majority” of Bernie supporters were able to deal (by which we mean vote) with Hillary?

(A majority, yes. Vast?)
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:44 AM   #968
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Does that include your monthly check from Soros?


The payments from him are variable, depending on how many protests I attend (bonus $ if I wear the pink uterus knit hat), the number of times I illegally vote in an election (bonus $ if I rent a bus and bring along 40 of my Mexican housekeepers and gardeners), and the size of the font of “Happy Holidays” on my Christless Christmas Cards.
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:45 AM   #969
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An ode to Corn Pop, in Twitter thread form

https://twitter.com/newsbysamuels/st...678986240?s=19
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:47 AM   #970
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Originally Posted by BEAL View Post
If Warren is the nominee

What could the far left / Bernie or bust crowd really go after her for

She doesn’t speak for Wall Street
No emails
Not a warmonger
Husband isn’t a creep and despised pol

Wouldn’t she be perfect ? I would
Hope the African American crowd would rally around her. I don’t get their support for Biden
African American support for Biden is pretty simple.
He has worked through his career to expand voting rights, expand hate crime rules, staunch supporter of affirmative action, violence against women act, worked to end workplace discrimination, etc.. and just in general has had genuine one on one interaction in communities throughout his career. You see that particularly in South Carolina where he has deep relationships there spanning decades.
On top of that, the bulk of that support is from 40 year old + voters that are also more moderate, and he was Obama's right hand man which carries weight.

He doesn't just have decent support, he is nearly 30 - 40 points above everyone else in support. with Harris getting 7% and Booker 3. It really is very concerning that if Biden is nominee, then we lose enthusiasm from younger progressive base and if Sanders or Warren get it, the minority vote would take a hit.
I know that a smart VP pick could help, but it's still worrisome.
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:48 AM   #971
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Originally Posted by anitram View Post
The payments from him are variable, depending on how many protests I attend (bonus $ if I wear the pink uterus knit hat), the number of times I illegally vote in an election (bonus $ if I rent a bus and bring along 40 of my Mexican housekeepers and gardeners), and the size of the font of “Happy Holidays” on my Christless Christmas Cards.
Got it. Makes sense.

You should really look into the mass shooting crisis actor gig. That's where the real bank is.
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:57 AM   #972
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On Twitter, of course. And we’ve seen the outline of the argument against her already sketched out. I expect it’s intensity to grow as she continues to do well.


Do you feel as if the “vast majority” of Bernie supporters were able to deal (by which we mean vote) with Hillary?

(A majority, yes. Vast?)
there are almost exactly as many biden or bust voters out there as there are bernie or bust voters:

Quote:
A recent YouGov poll, which asked Democrats to list all the candidates they were considering rather than requiring them to pick just one, also seems to suggest that Sanders has a relatively high floor of support. Among Democrats who were considering only one candidate, 28 percent were considering only Sanders, and 27 percent were considering only Biden. Everyone else was in the single digits on this question.

Here’s the catch, though: Only 28 percent of Democrats fell into the category of considering only one candidate. (By comparison, 67 percent are still considering multiple candidates, and 5 percent aren’t considering any current candidates.) So Sanders isn’t getting 28 percent of 100 percent — he’s getting 28 percent of 28 percent. That means just 8 percent of the overall Democratic electorate truly falls into the “Bernie or bust” category.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...etty-damn-low/

and i'm sure you guys are going to get around to this same kind of pre-emptive worried handwringing about the threat that the biden or bust bros pose in the general election if he isn't the nominee, any day now...
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Old 09-16-2019, 10:06 AM   #973
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I don't believe there are a ton of Biden or bust democrats who would stay home if he didn't get the nomination. I don't think there are a ton of Bernie voters who would stay home this time, either.

I can see where there would be a decent number of independent or never Trump Republicans who want to vote for Biden but couldn't stomach Warren or Sanders. And if they stay home and/or vote for Trump, they can go fuck themselves.
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Old 09-16-2019, 11:36 AM   #974
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US Politics XV: Time to Mull Mueller Mania

*Anyone* who stays home because they didn’t get their preferred nominee can FOAD.

The difference between a Bernie or Buster and a Biden voter is that one will stay home, the other will vote Trump because the D nominee is too liberal. Those are called swing voters.

Critical difference.
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Old 09-16-2019, 11:39 AM   #975
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African American support for Biden is pretty simple.

He has worked through his career to expand voting rights, expand hate crime rules, staunch supporter of affirmative action, violence against women act, worked to end workplace discrimination, etc.. and just in general has had genuine one on one interaction in communities throughout his career. You see that particularly in South Carolina where he has deep relationships there spanning decades.

On top of that, the bulk of that support is from 40 year old + voters that are also more moderate, and he was Obama's right hand man which carries weight..



Yes, but some very concerned white liberals find the 1994 Crime Bill completely disqualifying and evidence of Biden’s commitment to structural racism and institutionalization of violence against black and brown bodies. So that’s that.

It doesn’t really matter what black voters think. These white liberals will do the thinking for them.
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Old 09-16-2019, 11:47 AM   #976
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He doesn't just have decent support, he is nearly 30 - 40 points above everyone else in support. with Harris getting 7% and Booker 3. It really is very concerning that if Biden is nominee, then we lose enthusiasm from younger progressive base and if Sanders or Warren get it, the minority vote would take a hit.
I know that a smart VP pick could help, but it's still worrisome.
We should take a look at the data. (Link at end of post)

Generally, between 1996-2016 (inclusive), the Asian and Hispanic rates of voting participation have been steady at just under 50%. There are no massive swings.

That leaves us with one materially significant minority voting group - African Americans. If you discount the Obama years (2008 and 2012), the AA vote is essentially UNCHANGED since 1992 (at about 60%), with only 1996 seeing a dip. In other words, the % of AA who voted for Hillary Clinton was exactly in line with non-Obama years.

I find it hard to believe that Biden will result in a higher-than-Hillary AA voting participation rate. ESPECIALLY since it is AA women who make up the bulk of the AA vote (AA men vote at very low rates for a host of reasons). And AA women voted for Hillary at >90%. Biden would probably not even get her #s, but even if he did, there simply exists no historical data suggesting that aside from Barack Obama, the AA vote swings wildly based on the candidate.

A greater % of AA voters showed up when John Kerry was running against GWB than when Hillary squared off against Trump. I think it's just a totally invented narrative that Biden is the only one that can get out the minority vote. The historical facts simply do not bear that out at all.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...-cast-ballots/
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Old 09-16-2019, 12:12 PM   #977
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*Anyone* who stays home because they didn’t get their preferred nominee can FOAD.

The difference between a Bernie or Buster and a Biden voter is that one will stay home, the other will vote Trump because the D nominee is too liberal. Those are called swing voters.

Critical difference.
yes, one of those voters is going to stay home, and the other is actively going to go out and vote for trump, which is effectively the same thing when we're talking about the presidential race, but the centrist biden "swing voter" is likely going to also be casting down-ticket votes for other republicans in congressional, state, and local elections too.

but sure, let's keep on acting like the tiny minority of loud twitter bernie bros who will not go out and vote for anyone else at all is what we should all be anxiously fretting about.

Quote:
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Yes, but some very concerned white liberals find the 1994 Crime Bill completely disqualifying and evidence of Biden’s commitment to structural racism and institutionalization of violence against black and brown bodies. So that’s that.

It doesn’t really matter what black voters think. These white liberals will do the thinking for them.
this post can fuck right off. this is absolutely beyond patronizing and really is on the level of some of gzus's finest "black people just need to wake up and leave the democrat plantation" nonsense.

as if it's only "white liberals" showing fake-outrage when people bring up things like the crime bill or his opposition to busing, or saying that he doesn't feel any responsibility to address the legacy of slavery, or when he blames the problems of black america on the fact that they don't have record players on all the time in the living room.

kamala harris is a white liberal now because she challenged him on his opposition to busing at the first debate?
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Old 09-16-2019, 12:17 PM   #978
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So maybe Bolton was let go because he’d get too much credit for starting a war with Iran?

Trump doesn’t like to share and he seems to be in the pocket of the Saudis (and others)

Lock and loaded!!
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Old 09-16-2019, 12:45 PM   #979
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So maybe Bolton was let go because he’d get too much credit for starting a war with Iran?

Trump doesn’t like to share and he seems to be in the pocket of the Saudis (and others)

Lock and loaded!!
Trump is totally unhinged but I don't get the sense that his base has an appetite for war, particularly one coming to the aid of a country that according to them, believes in satan essentially. The neocons are a whole other beast, and they're obviously ready to go, but the true Trumpers appear to smell the bullshit on this issue.

Now I have no doubt that if their God Emperor starts telling them that gas is going to $20/gallon they'd fall right in line, but it isn't as easy of a sell as the post-9/11 adventure.
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Old 09-16-2019, 01:39 PM   #980
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We should take a look at the data. (Link at end of post)

Generally, between 1996-2016 (inclusive), the Asian and Hispanic rates of voting participation have been steady at just under 50%. There are no massive swings.

That leaves us with one materially significant minority voting group - African Americans. If you discount the Obama years (2008 and 2012), the AA vote is essentially UNCHANGED since 1992 (at about 60%), with only 1996 seeing a dip. In other words, the % of AA who voted for Hillary Clinton was exactly in line with non-Obama years.

I find it hard to believe that Biden will result in a higher-than-Hillary AA voting participation rate. ESPECIALLY since it is AA women who make up the bulk of the AA vote (AA men vote at very low rates for a host of reasons). And AA women voted for Hillary at >90%. Biden would probably not even get her #s, but even if he did, there simply exists no historical data suggesting that aside from Barack Obama, the AA vote swings wildly based on the candidate.

A greater % of AA voters showed up when John Kerry was running against GWB than when Hillary squared off against Trump. I think it's just a totally invented narrative that Biden is the only one that can get out the minority vote. The historical facts simply do not bear that out at all.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...-cast-ballots/
I'm not saying that in the general, He is going to perform 35 points better than someone else. But I do see the possibility of some reliable older AA voters and other less reliable minority groups not jumping in line for a "far left" candidate. Hopefully that would be made up by a more energized young progressive group of voters.

Will be interesting to start to see the first real post debate polls. But i feel they will be largely unchanged.
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