US Politics XV: Time to Mull Mueller Mania

[Irvine511]

On a side note, it’s been interesting watching the dormant Bernie Bros awaken post-debate and start to focus their “attentions” on Warren.

I wonder, if she’s the nominee, will we get the same tantrums like we did in 2016?

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Now, now...

Apologies.

I'm not a fancy 12 figure lib lawyer like anitram so I'm not as eloquent with my words.

 

[anitram]

Apologies.

I'm not a fancy 12 figure lib lawyer like anitram so I'm not as eloquent with my words.

I haven’t made so little money in a decade.

15 figures or bust.

 

[BEAL]

If Warren is the nominee

What could the far left / Bernie or bust crowd really go after her for

She doesn’t speak for Wall Street
No emails
Not a warmonger
Husband isn’t a creep and despised pol

Wouldn’t she be perfect ? I would
Hope the African American crowd would rally around her. I don’t get their support for Biden

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I haven’t made so little money in a decade.

15 figures or bust.

Does that include your monthly check from Soros?

 

[Vlad n U 2]

On a side note, it’s been interesting watching the dormant Bernie Bros awaken post-debate and start to focus their “attentions” on Warren.

I wonder, if she’s the nominee, will we get the same tantrums like we did in 2016?

Who?

If Warren is the nominee

What could the far left / Bernie or bust crowd really go after her for

She doesn’t speak for Wall Street
No emails
Not a warmonger
Husband isn’t a creep and despised pol

Wouldn’t she be perfect ? I would
Hope the African American crowd would rally around her. I don’t get their support for Biden

The vast majority of Bernie supporters would be able to deal with a Warren nomination, she's the next furthest left to him lmao

 

[Irvine511]

Who?

On Twitter, of course. And we’ve seen the outline of the argument against her already sketched out. I expect it’s intensity to grow as she continues to do well.

The vast majority of Bernie supporters would be able to deal with a Warren nomination, she's the next furthest left to him lmao

Do you feel as if the “vast majority” of Bernie supporters were able to deal (by which we mean vote) with Hillary?

(A majority, yes. Vast?)

 

[anitram]

Does that include your monthly check from Soros?

The payments from him are variable, depending on how many protests I attend (bonus $ if I wear the pink uterus knit hat), the number of times I illegally vote in an election (bonus $ if I rent a bus and bring along 40 of my Mexican housekeepers and gardeners), and the size of the font of “Happy Holidays” on my Christless Christmas Cards.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

An ode to Corn Pop, in Twitter thread form

https://twitter.com/newsbysamuels/status/1173434571678986240?s=19

 

[womanfish]

If Warren is the nominee

What could the far left / Bernie or bust crowd really go after her for

She doesn’t speak for Wall Street
No emails
Not a warmonger
Husband isn’t a creep and despised pol

Wouldn’t she be perfect ? I would
Hope the African American crowd would rally around her. I don’t get their support for Biden

African American support for Biden is pretty simple.
He has worked through his career to expand voting rights, expand hate crime rules, staunch supporter of affirmative action, violence against women act, worked to end workplace discrimination, etc.. and just in general has had genuine one on one interaction in communities throughout his career. You see that particularly in South Carolina where he has deep relationships there spanning decades.
On top of that, the bulk of that support is from 40 year old + voters that are also more moderate, and he was Obama's right hand man which carries weight.

He doesn't just have decent support, he is nearly 30 - 40 points above everyone else in support. with Harris getting 7% and Booker 3. It really is very concerning that if Biden is nominee, then we lose enthusiasm from younger progressive base and if Sanders or Warren get it, the minority vote would take a hit.
I know that a smart VP pick could help, but it's still worrisome.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The payments from him are variable, depending on how many protests I attend (bonus $ if I wear the pink uterus knit hat), the number of times I illegally vote in an election (bonus $ if I rent a bus and bring along 40 of my Mexican housekeepers and gardeners), and the size of the font of “Happy Holidays” on my Christless Christmas Cards.

Got it. Makes sense.

You should really look into the mass shooting crisis actor gig. That's where the real bank is.

 

[DaveC]

On Twitter, of course. And we’ve seen the outline of the argument against her already sketched out. I expect it’s intensity to grow as she continues to do well.


Do you feel as if the “vast majority” of Bernie supporters were able to deal (by which we mean vote) with Hillary?

(A majority, yes. Vast?)

there are almost exactly as many biden or bust voters out there as there are bernie or bust voters:

A recent YouGov poll, which asked Democrats to list all the candidates they were considering rather than requiring them to pick just one, also seems to suggest that Sanders has a relatively high floor of support. Among Democrats who were considering only one candidate, 28 percent were considering only Sanders, and 27 percent were considering only Biden. Everyone else was in the single digits on this question.

Here’s the catch, though: Only 28 percent of Democrats fell into the category of considering only one candidate. (By comparison, 67 percent are still considering multiple candidates, and 5 percent aren’t considering any current candidates.) So Sanders isn’t getting 28 percent of 100 percent — he’s getting 28 percent of 28 percent. That means just 8 percent of the overall Democratic electorate truly falls into the “Bernie or bust” category.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-has-the-highest-floor-and-its-pretty-damn-low/

and i'm sure you guys are going to get around to this same kind of pre-emptive worried handwringing about the threat that the biden or bust bros pose in the general election if he isn't the nominee, any day now...

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I don't believe there are a ton of Biden or bust democrats who would stay home if he didn't get the nomination. I don't think there are a ton of Bernie voters who would stay home this time, either.

I can see where there would be a decent number of independent or never Trump Republicans who want to vote for Biden but couldn't stomach Warren or Sanders. And if they stay home and/or vote for Trump, they can go fuck themselves.

 

[Irvine511]

*Anyone* who stays home because they didn’t get their preferred nominee can FOAD.

The difference between a Bernie or Buster and a Biden voter is that one will stay home, the other will vote Trump because the D nominee is too liberal. Those are called swing voters.

Critical difference.

 

[Irvine511]

African American support for Biden is pretty simple.

He has worked through his career to expand voting rights, expand hate crime rules, staunch supporter of affirmative action, violence against women act, worked to end workplace discrimination, etc.. and just in general has had genuine one on one interaction in communities throughout his career. You see that particularly in South Carolina where he has deep relationships there spanning decades.

On top of that, the bulk of that support is from 40 year old + voters that are also more moderate, and he was Obama's right hand man which carries weight..

Yes, but some very concerned white liberals find the 1994 Crime Bill completely disqualifying and evidence of Biden’s commitment to structural racism and institutionalization of violence against black and brown bodies. So that’s that.

It doesn’t really matter what black voters think. These white liberals will do the thinking for them.

 

[anitram]

He doesn't just have decent support, he is nearly 30 - 40 points above everyone else in support. with Harris getting 7% and Booker 3. It really is very concerning that if Biden is nominee, then we lose enthusiasm from younger progressive base and if Sanders or Warren get it, the minority vote would take a hit.
I know that a smart VP pick could help, but it's still worrisome.

We should take a look at the data. (Link at end of post)

Generally, between 1996-2016 (inclusive), the Asian and Hispanic rates of voting participation have been steady at just under 50%. There are no massive swings.

That leaves us with one materially significant minority voting group - African Americans. If you discount the Obama years (2008 and 2012), the AA vote is essentially UNCHANGED since 1992 (at about 60%), with only 1996 seeing a dip. In other words, the % of AA who voted for Hillary Clinton was exactly in line with non-Obama years.

I find it hard to believe that Biden will result in a higher-than-Hillary AA voting participation rate. ESPECIALLY since it is AA women who make up the bulk of the AA vote (AA men vote at very low rates for a host of reasons). And AA women voted for Hillary at >90%. Biden would probably not even get her #s, but even if he did, there simply exists no historical data suggesting that aside from Barack Obama, the AA vote swings wildly based on the candidate.

A greater % of AA voters showed up when John Kerry was running against GWB than when Hillary squared off against Trump. I think it's just a totally invented narrative that Biden is the only one that can get out the minority vote. The historical facts simply do not bear that out at all.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/

 

[DaveC]

*Anyone* who stays home because they didn’t get their preferred nominee can FOAD.

The difference between a Bernie or Buster and a Biden voter is that one will stay home, the other will vote Trump because the D nominee is too liberal. Those are called swing voters.

Critical difference.

yes, one of those voters is going to stay home, and the other is actively going to go out and vote for trump, which is effectively the same thing when we're talking about the presidential race, but the centrist biden "swing voter" is likely going to also be casting down-ticket votes for other republicans in congressional, state, and local elections too.

but sure, let's keep on acting like the tiny minority of loud twitter bernie bros who will not go out and vote for anyone else at all is what we should all be anxiously fretting about.

Yes, but some very concerned white liberals find the 1994 Crime Bill completely disqualifying and evidence of Biden’s commitment to structural racism and institutionalization of violence against black and brown bodies. So that’s that.

It doesn’t really matter what black voters think. These white liberals will do the thinking for them.

this post can fuck right off. this is absolutely beyond patronizing and really is on the level of some of gzus's finest "black people just need to wake up and leave the democrat plantation" nonsense.

as if it's only "white liberals" showing fake-outrage when people bring up things like the crime bill or his opposition to busing, or saying that he doesn't feel any responsibility to address the legacy of slavery, or when he blames the problems of black america on the fact that they don't have record players on all the time in the living room.

kamala harris is a white liberal now because she challenged him on his opposition to busing at the first debate?

 

[BEAL]

So maybe Bolton was let go because he’d get too much credit for starting a war with Iran?

Trump doesn’t like to share and he seems to be in the pocket of the Saudis (and others)

Lock and loaded!!

 

[anitram]

So maybe Bolton was let go because he’d get too much credit for starting a war with Iran?

Trump doesn’t like to share and he seems to be in the pocket of the Saudis (and others)

Lock and loaded!!

Trump is totally unhinged but I don't get the sense that his base has an appetite for war, particularly one coming to the aid of a country that according to them, believes in satan essentially. The neocons are a whole other beast, and they're obviously ready to go, but the true Trumpers appear to smell the bullshit on this issue.

Now I have no doubt that if their God Emperor starts telling them that gas is going to $20/gallon they'd fall right in line, but it isn't as easy of a sell as the post-9/11 adventure.

 

[womanfish]

We should take a look at the data. (Link at end of post)

Generally, between 1996-2016 (inclusive), the Asian and Hispanic rates of voting participation have been steady at just under 50%. There are no massive swings.

That leaves us with one materially significant minority voting group - African Americans. If you discount the Obama years (2008 and 2012), the AA vote is essentially UNCHANGED since 1992 (at about 60%), with only 1996 seeing a dip. In other words, the % of AA who voted for Hillary Clinton was exactly in line with non-Obama years.

I find it hard to believe that Biden will result in a higher-than-Hillary AA voting participation rate. ESPECIALLY since it is AA women who make up the bulk of the AA vote (AA men vote at very low rates for a host of reasons). And AA women voted for Hillary at >90%. Biden would probably not even get her #s, but even if he did, there simply exists no historical data suggesting that aside from Barack Obama, the AA vote swings wildly based on the candidate.

A greater % of AA voters showed up when John Kerry was running against GWB than when Hillary squared off against Trump. I think it's just a totally invented narrative that Biden is the only one that can get out the minority vote. The historical facts simply do not bear that out at all.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/

I'm not saying that in the general, He is going to perform 35 points better than someone else. But I do see the possibility of some reliable older AA voters and other less reliable minority groups not jumping in line for a "far left" candidate. Hopefully that would be made up by a more energized young progressive group of voters.

Will be interesting to start to see the first real post debate polls. But i feel they will be largely unchanged.

 

[BEAL]

Trump is totally unhinged but I don't get the sense that his base has an appetite for war, particularly one coming to the aid of a country that according to them, believes in satan essentially. The neocons are a whole other beast, and they're obviously ready to go, but the true Trumpers appear to smell the bullshit on this issue.



Now I have no doubt that if their God Emperor starts telling them that gas is going to $20/gallon they'd fall right in line, but it isn't as easy of a sell as the post-9/11 adventure.

I feel like those that still support him at this point are a cult and will back him no matter what.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Trump is totally unhinged but I don't get the sense that his base has an appetite for war, particularly one coming to the aid of a country that according to them, believes in satan essentially. The neocons are a whole other beast, and they're obviously ready to go, but the true Trumpers appear to smell the bullshit on this issue.



Now I have no doubt that if their God Emperor starts telling them that gas is going to $20/gallon they'd fall right in line, but it isn't as easy of a sell as the post-9/11 adventure.

You give the intelligence of Trump's base way too much credit.

They're following slappy to the ends of the Earth.

 

[Gzusfrk]

yes, one of those voters is going to stay home, and the other is actively going to go out and vote for trump, which is effectively the same thing when we're talking about the presidential race, but the centrist biden "swing voter" is likely going to also be casting down-ticket votes for other republicans in congressional, state, and local elections too.

but sure, let's keep on acting like the tiny minority of loud twitter bernie bros who will not go out and vote for anyone else at all is what we should all be anxiously fretting about.



this post can fuck right off. this is absolutely beyond patronizing and really is on the level of some of gzus's finest "black people just need to wake up and leave the democrat plantation" nonsense.

as if it's only "white liberals" showing fake-outrage when people bring up things like the crime bill or his opposition to busing, or saying that he doesn't feel any responsibility to address the legacy of slavery, or when he blames the problems of black america on the fact that they don't have record players on all the time in the living room.

kamala harris is a white liberal now because she challenged him on his opposition to busing at the first debate?

Ahh, now you get it, and many Black and Hispanic Americans are waking up and walking away from the patronizing Democrat Party, which has done nothing but keep them in poverty for 50 years. Many are realizing that it’s actually racist to say “ oh they’re oppressed, they don’t have as much of a chance to succeed, let us superior white liberals pat them in the head and take care of them”.

That my friend, is the definition of a plantation. That’s not my term, but the term of many Black and Hispanic Americans who have realized they are already free, and can pursue the American Dream and be as rich as the white liberal elites that dominate this forum

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Ahh, now you get it, and many Black and Hispanic Americans are waking up and walking away from the patronizing Democrat Party, which has done nothing but keep them in poverty for 50 years. Many are realizing that it’s actually racist to say “ oh they’re oppressed, they don’t have as much of a chance to succeed, let us superior white liberals pat them in the head and take care of them”.



That my friend, is the definition of a plantation. That’s not my term, but the term of many Black and Hispanic Americans who have realized they are already free, and can pursue the American Dream and be as rich as the white liberal elites that dominate this forum

Not possible.

Soros will ensure it doesn't happen.

 

[anitram]

Not possible.

Soros will ensure it doesn't happen.

+ Jeremiah Wright

++ Saul Alinsky's ghost

 

[DaveC]

Ahh, now you get it, and many Black and Hispanic Americans are waking up and walking away from the patronizing Democrat Party, which has done nothing but keep them in poverty for 50 years. Many are realizing that it’s actually racist to say “ oh they’re oppressed, they don’t have as much of a chance to succeed, let us superior white liberals pat them in the head and take care of them”.

That my friend, is the definition of a plantation. That’s not my term, but the term of many Black and Hispanic Americans who have realized they are already free, and can pursue the American Dream and be as rich as the white liberal elites that dominate this forum

you're directly calling every single black and hispanic person in america who doesn't vote republican ignorant slaves too stupid to make decisions in their own best interest. you literally have a slave owner's mentality.

you are a blatantly racist human-shaped pile of flaming dogshit. never fucking use the words "my friend" to refer to me ever again.

 

[Irvine511]

yes, one of those voters is going to stay home, and the other is actively going to go out and vote for trump, which is effectively the same thing when we're talking about the presidential race, but the centrist biden "swing voter" is likely going to also be casting down-ticket votes for other republicans in congressional, state, and local elections too.

but sure, let's keep on acting like the tiny minority of loud twitter bernie bros who will not go out and vote for anyone else at all is what we should all be anxiously fretting about.

i'm in agreement of not letting Twitter talk too loudly -- or of getting all our news off Twitter -- but i'm still more concerned about losing the middle than i am about the Bernie Bros. i'm anxious about many things, not just the Bernie Bros. one would think if they gave a damn about anyone they would vote D after Bernie doesn't win the nomination again, and they wouldn't be protesting the convention, like they did in 2016, or going out and voting for Jill Stein, like they did in 2016.

this post can fuck right off. this is absolutely beyond patronizing and really is on the level of some of gzus's finest "black people just need to wake up and leave the democrat plantation" nonsense.

as if it's only "white liberals" showing fake-outrage when people bring up things like the crime bill or his opposition to busing, or saying that he doesn't feel any responsibility to address the legacy of slavery, or when he blames the problems of black america on the fact that they don't have record players on all the time in the living room.

kamala harris is a white liberal now because she challenged him on his opposition to busing at the first debate?

no. the patronization is the idea that everyone feels the same way about the 1994 Crime Bill as the woke left does in 2019. i was a teenager at the time, but i remember it, and i remember the single use of the word "super predator" by HRC, which was not at all out of the mainstream at the time, and then it becomes something disqualifying to the "woke" Left/Blue Twitter, which is much whiter than the Democratic part as a whole.

despite the 1994 crime bill, despite Harris's effective but ultimately a little cheap shot at Biden over busing, despite your list of grievances ending with record players, Biden STILL retains large, solid AA support. ask yourself why? it's reminiscent of our long departed poster complaining about black women in the south voting for Hillary over Bernie because they weren't smart enough to see that Bernie was better and he wished they would stay at home, because the white bros got this. as if black people don't look at issues and make up their own minds and make compromises and vote in ways every bit as transactional as evangelicals and are able to look at Biden's lengthy record and his, you know, selection as VP by the first African-American president, who is also the single most beloved Democrat on the planet by far. it's really only a minority of left-wing (mostly white) voters who find Obama remotely disappointing, and most Democrats remember it as 8 years of real, genuine progress despite unprecedented GOP obstruction and the transformation of that party into a suicide cult. i don't believe AA's as a whole are as doctrinaire as Blue Twitter, and Biden is placed into his appropriate historical context.

Gzus' "plantation" nonsense is just that -- nonsense. the GOP is losing POC votes, and will continue to do so as it makes white supremacy it's core political MO. Gzus isn't smart enough to realize he's being used as a tool of white supremacy, but we're aware.

 

[Irvine511]

Ahh, now you get it, and many Black and Hispanic Americans are waking up and walking away from the patronizing Democrat Party, which has done nothing but keep them in poverty for 50 years. Many are realizing that it’s actually racist to say “ oh they’re oppressed, they don’t have as much of a chance to succeed, let us superior white liberals pat them in the head and take care of them”.

That my friend, is the definition of a plantation. That’s not my term, but the term of many Black and Hispanic Americans who have realized they are already free, and can pursue the American Dream and be as rich as the white liberal elites that dominate this forum

it's as if you didn't read anything and saw the word "african american" and cut-and-pasted your non-sequiter boilerplate.

i think you should take your message to the street. please, go and tell all your black and hispanic friends -- i'm sure you have many -- and perhaps even strangers on the street that they're just imagining racism.

also, kind of depressed that you think that American Dream = Being Rich, but i guess that's the conservative mindset. for someone who thinks of himself as Jesus, you sure seem to worship money.

 

[Diemen]

Guys, many black and Hispanic Americans are walking away. Gzus keeps saying it, so it must be true.

https://god.dailydot.com/trump-photoshop-maga-hats-on-people-of-color/

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I think every rational person who opposes this administration has the right to be a wee bit skittish about things, based on what happened in 2016.

We all need to remember that we are all, for now at least, on the same side.

Once we eliminate this cancer on our nation, and whatever's left of the party who went along with it, we can get back to ripping our throats out over the finer points of what, in reality, is all a much further left agenda than the democrats presented even as recently as 2008.