US Politics XV: Time to Mull Mueller Mania
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There are new polls out, the first ones in September. Let's break them down. I've included the pollster's rating per 538.
(A-) IBD/TIPP
Biden 28
Warren 24
Sanders 12
Harris 6
Buttigieg 5
(B) YouGov
Biden 26
Warren 21
Sanders 14
Buttigieg 6
Harris 5
(B-) Morning Consult
Biden 32
Sanders 20
Warren 16
Harris 8
Buttigieg 5
(C+) Change Research
Warren 29
Sanders 22
Biden 10
Buttigieg 9
Harris 6
(C+) HarrisX
Biden 28
Sanders 18
Warren 11
Harris 5
Buttigieg 5
My guess is that the last 2 are outliers as they don't follow any other pattern seen and given their rating, the methodology is probably questionable.
Of the other 3, two now show signs of tightening at the top.
(A-) IBD/TIPP
Biden 28
Warren 24
Sanders 12
Harris 6
Buttigieg 5
(B) YouGov
Biden 26
Warren 21
Sanders 14
Buttigieg 6
Harris 5
(B-) Morning Consult
Biden 32
Sanders 20
Warren 16
Harris 8
Buttigieg 5
(C+) Change Research
Warren 29
Sanders 22
Biden 10
Buttigieg 9
Harris 6
(C+) HarrisX
Biden 28
Sanders 18
Warren 11
Harris 5
Buttigieg 5
My guess is that the last 2 are outliers as they don't follow any other pattern seen and given their rating, the methodology is probably questionable.
Of the other 3, two now show signs of tightening at the top.
namkcuR
ONE love, blood, life
One of Warren/Sanders is going to have to drop out for either of them to have a chance. And I think it should be Sanders. Warren is simply more likable, has more detailed policies, communicates them better, will have more full-throated support from the DNC(which matters, like it or not), and has has more momentum recently.
Although there have been some reports of Bernie supporters having Biden as their second choice, which strikes me as odd.
Although there have been some reports of Bernie supporters having Biden as their second choice, which strikes me as odd.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
there's actually not as much overlap between the two groups of supporters as you'd think, apparently:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...-joe-biden-democratic-presidential-nomination
https://twitter.com/wxdam/status/1169308075662151680?s=21
Dumbest thing he’s done in office so far ?
Dumbest thing he’s done in office so far ?
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I have to agree with both previous posts...
only Warren or Sanders will be left standing in the progressive lane.
I like them both, but out of those two lean Warren just on policies and personality, not really gauging how well she would fare in the general.
I think it is troubling that she doesn't have the minority support at the moment of Biden or even Sanders. Being a woman is a double edged sword. Pick up women voters, but lose some more... lets kindly say... people that have a hard time with women in authoritative positions. Also, the education gap that you point out.
A key this time will be winning those non-college voters that went for Trump but have since fallen out of favor with him. They could just stay home if the Dem nominee doesn't appeal to them.
Interesting to see the polls. Will be extra interesting after September debate!
Also, Obvious VP picks are Harris and Abrams. Anyone else think that Castro my be a bit of a sleeper, possibly stronger choice? Could see solid returns in NV, AZ, FL, and TX...
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
seriously, like a 5 year old.
Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
And remember, folks, this is the same guy who's claimed he's never heard of a Category 5 hurricane, despite the fact that, as of now, four of them have occurred during his presidency.
But yeah. Totally a guy worth defending and supporting.
Jerry Dunk
Refugee
Yeah, Sanders has a more diverse base of support, and while they are both the more "left" candidate, there is a much larger gap in ideology between Sanders and Warren than there is between Warren and Harris/Biden/Buttigieg. Sanders is skeptical of capitalism; Warren is not. Sanders wants universal health care; Warren wants private insurance to continue to be a factor.
I heard it put best this way: Warren is the candidate of the aggrieved consumer. The companies are screwing us over, in that we're getting a bad deal. We need to regulate them to get better options on the market. Sanders is the candidate of the aggrieved worker. The companies are screwing us over by exploiting and stealing our labor. We need to ensure that rights are not tied to companies that can't be trusted with them.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
But, but, Biden said we choose facts over truth! So really they are equally bad.
OP
OP
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Mrs. Garrison disregarded my post asking whether or not this was an issue of the president’s competency or whether or not he was just trolling. I was told that I was just reading too much into things.
I don’t know if the sharpie thing is real, but I would not put it past him.
Mrs. Garrison, is he trolling?
If they stay home, frankly that's not a bad outcome for the Democrats, but it's devastating for Trump.
I think I've said this before, but among the ultra wealthy corporate America types, which my husband works with on a daily basis, Warren is almost universally becoming an acceptable choice EVEN WITH the wealth tax. Sanders is not acceptable to them at all. If you are a purist, that may say something to you. If you're a realist/electability voter, it may say something entirely else.
Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Actually you are right, it was petty. And I should have known better.
If anyone here was offended by those comments please accept my sincere apology, it was bad judgement on my part.
DaveC, for what it's worth please accept my sincere and humble apology.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
i really didn't take any offense to that, but thanks anyways for the apology.
OP
OP
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Well I was, you know, telling off headache. It is petty. It’s just not a big deal.
Anyways, please address the substantive post because last time you told me I was reading too much into the Presidentroll thing, but yet the topic has come back up again by his decision.
Anyways, please address the substantive post because last time you told me I was reading too much into the Presidentroll thing, but yet the topic has come back up again by his decision.
Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
You bet.
Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
If you are referring to me, i'm not sure i recall the substantive post? Slept a lot since then i suppose.
OP
OP
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I was trying to understand if the president had a motive behind his factually incorrect and publicly misguiding statements about hurricane Dorian, or if there was no motive.
You disregarded the post and told me I’m just reaching for something and that he misspoke. However, like in times past, he has doubled down on his words. Is he just doubly accidentally misspeaking, or is he doing it intentionally?
It seems obvious to me that, in Trump’s world, admitting a mistake/error/fault is to appear weak, and there’s nothing he hates more than appearing weak. So he doubles down, regardless of how ridiculous or minor the initial error, and trusts that his aides and talking heads in right wing media can provide a decent enough spin to satisfy his supporters who, let’s be honest, don’t require much to be satisfied.
But it's not even a matter of admitting a mistake. We live in a time of Twitter and the media cycle is like 60 minutes long. He wouldn't even have to admit he was wrong, he could just move on and never speak of it again. Instead HE himself draws attention to it AGAIN by tripling down and being a totally absurd liar.
It really is time to Make America Great Again. On November 3, 2020.
Mrs. Garrison
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I vaguely recall this from the other day, but to be honest i don't quite remember whatever was said that may or may not have been "factually incorrect and publicly misguiding statements"
As for the rest of that; motive, misspoke, double-down, etc. I have no clue. I don't even know the context of this, or what was said.
Currently i am working a special project for a few more minutes, and then i'm going to try and catch a Dexter, then i am off to bed. That is my motive, and about the only thing i could answer for tonight. Tomorrow starts around 0400 hours if you get my drift. Maybe we can revisit this again soon. Cheers.
mikal
Blue Crack Addict
What is great is that he’s causing “Trump Fatigue” and doesn’t even realize it. Like all reality TV shows, people people move on and get sick of it.
OP
OP
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
May or may not. Ok. It was two days ago. You do know the context because I quite literally gave you the context in the post you quoted. You do remember.
Please answer seriously.
Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
This.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
relax man, it's very hard to remember what people posted here two days ago. if only there was some function that allowed us to go back in time and read what our fellow users previously wrote on this internet message board. alas.
dazzledbylight
Blue Crack Supplier
Interesting thought. Would it be true!
And, oh jeez, that sharpie on the national weather map printout!!??!
How fucking parhetic is that !!?
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
Rule number 2 for an internet troll. Always pretend like what you wrote in the past doesn’t exist. The internet is like invisible ink.
Maybe he has no thumbs and can't scroll you insensitive prick
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