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Old 02-18-2020, 07:29 PM   #661
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Right. The polls favored Democrats.
and the democrats went on to receive 3 million more votes, so i'd say that the polls were pretty accurate.
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Old 02-18-2020, 07:37 PM   #662
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and the democrats went on to receive 3 million more votes, so i'd say that the polls were pretty accurate.
The state by state polls. The popular vote is absolutely meaningless.
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Old 02-18-2020, 07:41 PM   #663
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The state by state polls. The popular vote is absolutely meaningless.
my bad - got confused a bit by reading LN7's post and thought you guys were discussing national polls. i should have read a little more carefully.
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Old 02-18-2020, 07:55 PM   #664
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Based on the newest (national) polling it seems that Sanders + Warren are pulling in ~40%ish of the vote. So let's say the centrists have 50-60%.

It looks increasingly likely that the question they have to ask themselves is would they rather vote for Bernie or Bloomberg?

And that will be what determines the outcome of the Dem primary.
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Old 02-18-2020, 07:56 PM   #665
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Right. The polls favored Democrats. Which is why the closer numbers for Sanders makes people very nervous.

And? They didn’t “favor” the democrats. Most national polls were somewhat accurate. The democrats got more votes. Many people plugged their ears or read RCP averages (meaningless meaningless meaningless, meaningless) and ignored the clear suggestions in the various numbers that it wasn’t a runaway. Voting was at a 20-year low, and during a non-incumbency election. That’s (probably) unprecedented in modern times.

Don’t be so assumptive with polling.
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Old 02-18-2020, 07:59 PM   #666
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on a day when Trump has just pardoned 13 people who are, generally, wealthy political insiders who have connections to Trump supporters, you are indeed all about the "me" and not the "we" if you have the opportunity to vote against Trump and choose not to exercise that opportunity to vote.


Proclaiming that you won’t vote for X Democrat nominee because s/he doesn’t fully support X policy, when the alternative is Donald J. Trump, seems to be the very height of privilege. The perfect is the enemy of the good.
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Old 02-18-2020, 08:45 PM   #667
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After 2016 i don’t think we can say the polls mean anything. Yes Trump did close the gap closer to Election Day (thanks Comey), but right now it could say Bernie or Biden by 35+ and I’d still be on edge.

We are placing our hopes on Bernie bringing out a voter bloc that has never turned out to vote. My other concern with his brogade is if he does win the nomination they’ll be too busy congratulating themselves on social media and forget to actually vote in November

Hey Bro did you vote ??

Nah, Bro i assumed your were gonna do it

Ahhh Bro that’s exactly what i thought you were gonna do

Broooooohhhhhhhh

End scene
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Old 02-18-2020, 09:00 PM   #668
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Sahara is the best CNN could do? Sad.
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Old 02-18-2020, 09:01 PM   #669
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I am he-uh at the Cicus Cicus Buh-fay while the Billiknaea Blooming is with his 1% cronies at the Encoah
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Old 02-18-2020, 09:25 PM   #670
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Proclaiming that you won’t vote for X Democrat nominee because s/he doesn’t fully support X policy, when the alternative is Donald J. Trump, seems to be the very height of privilege. The perfect is the enemy of the good.


I also don’t see how anyone could think that anyone the D’s nominate is going to pursue a platform that different from the others. It’s not like Bernie will impose M4A by fiat, nor will Bloomberg impose a nationwide stop-and-frisk program or do anything even remotely anti-trans just because he once (idiotically) used the word “it.”

We need to start to peel politics apart from identity. Identity politics is what gave us Trump.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:04 AM   #671
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I also don’t see how anyone could think that anyone the D’s nominate is going to pursue a platform that different from the others. It’s not like Bernie will impose M4A by fiat, nor will Bloomberg impose a nationwide stop-and-frisk program or do anything even remotely anti-trans just because he once (idiotically) used the word “it.”

We need to start to peel politics apart from identity. Identity politics is what gave us Trump.
This is spot on.
IF we take the Senate. Every one on the stage tomorrow will put through new health care plans that will most likely end up being a slightly toned up version of the ACA. They will all get back in the climate accord. They all will put forward new gun regulations. They all will alter the tax code to put it at least back to where it was under Obama. They all would nominate a liberal Justice. They all would try to strike a new deal with Iran. They all would step up re up sanctions on Russia. I think most would put through some sort of affordable college plan, possible daycare plan... the list goes on.

The real urgency is the Senate. Because even if people have all had enough of Trump, and either stay home or swing to the Dem side. The Senate races are different. People like to go with the name they know. So it will be tough.

It really would be nice if Amy and Pete got the hell out of this thing after NV and SC. And as much as it would be somewhat satisfying for me to see a Biden comeback in the next two states. If the polling is anywhere near accurate. That isn't in the cards.
Again if the polling is accurate, you may well see Bernie walk away with this thing once super tuesday is done.

A few wild cards. Biden comes out and has just a phenomenal debate performance and does a close second in NV and wins SC.
Or Biden just eats it at the debate, comes in third in NV and doesn't win SC.
Or, Bloomberg comes out and just blows the doors off at the debate. Places in second in NV and SC.
Or, Bloomberg crashes and burns at the debates. With it being his public debut, I think this would hobble him on super tuesday.
Those would be about the only 4 things that could significantly change the trajectory of the race right now IMO.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:22 AM   #672
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:27 AM   #673
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Who wrote that? I enjoyed it.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:32 AM   #674
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This is a description of a sociopath. Plain and simple.

While this will be my last mention of cultism. The true believers of Trump are cult members. Or unabashed racists. That really is the only explanation.

At least with Bernie, there is something to believe in. There is a belief in good and empathy and human kindness. There is also something in the person that you can actually admire, even if at times it annoys or irritates. you.

But Trump. There is nothing but pure, flat, lifeless, emotionless, rot. To the core. No redeeming qualities. Not one.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:34 AM   #675
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That's about the most spot on description of Trump I've ever read.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:37 AM   #676
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So question...

If Bloomberg just gets beat to shit tomorrow night. What happens?

My best guess. Because his rise in the polls has been completely abstract and somewhat artificial. I think you see his poll numbers tank almost immediately.

Next question. What if Bloomberg comes out and just tears it up tomorrow night?

My best guess. People's thoughts in the back of their minds that he is one that can beat Trump is realized and you see a complete dismissal of Biden/Amy/Warren/Pete. And he pulls even in the polls with Bernie.

My assumption. He does... ok. Takes a lot of hits, gives some hits, but nothing groundbreaking.

Now if Biden doesn't come out swinging tomorrow night. And he thinks he can fly under the radar of Bernie and Bloomberg going at each other. He doesn't deserve to win.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:41 AM   #677
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Who wrote that? I enjoyed it.


Was credited to Virginia Heffernen.
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Old 02-19-2020, 05:54 AM   #678
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Holy shit, I had that article bookmarked but then the site went down and I hadn’t been able to find that article to show people. It’s such a perfect summation of who Trump is.
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Old 02-19-2020, 06:27 AM   #679
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So question...

If Bloomberg just gets beat to shit tomorrow night. What happens?

My best guess. Because his rise in the polls has been completely abstract and somewhat artificial. I think you see his poll numbers tank almost immediately.

Next question. What if Bloomberg comes out and just tears it up tomorrow night?

My best guess. People's thoughts in the back of their minds that he is one that can beat Trump is realized and you see a complete dismissal of Biden/Amy/Warren/Pete. And he pulls even in the polls with Bernie.

My assumption. He does... ok. Takes a lot of hits, gives some hits, but nothing groundbreaking.

Now if Biden doesn't come out swinging tomorrow night. And he thinks he can fly under the radar of Bernie and Bloomberg going at each other. He doesn't deserve to win.
He will take all the jabs tonight. His presence, tomorrow at least, is a godsend for Sanders - as Sanders, as the front runner, would have been the one with the knives coming for him.

The person who could gain the most by having a good night is Amy. I think she's the only one who could really sting Bloomberg. Pete has his issues from South Bend and Biden voted for the crime bill (so did Bernie, btw... which I think will be Bloomberg's response to attacks here. A "we all have our mistakes" thing), so I don't know how much they want to go down the attack road on stop and frisk. Amy can go all in if she chooses.

The person with the most to lose is obviously Biden. If he (again) looks like he's lost a step, and Bloomberg does well? Man... even though he's still doing fairly well in the state by states, I just don't see how he survives.
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Old 02-19-2020, 07:28 AM   #680
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https://twitter.com/merica/status/12...313329152?s=21

Is it not fair to want to know the full health report of a 78 year old who had a heart attack months ago?

Same goes for Trumps medical visit that we’ve all forgotten about.

Or are there no rules or norms anymore ?

Clinton gets overheated and the news cycles were calling her time of death.
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