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Old 02-06-2020, 06:46 AM   #21
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https://twitter.com/Marmel/status/12...485250562?s=19

Self pwn to pwn the libs!
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Old 02-06-2020, 07:49 AM   #22
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I disagree that Sanders needs a moderate. Sanders needs a stable like-minded politician who is eligible to become president in 4 years months or less if because his health isn’t up to par.
Fixed
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Old 02-06-2020, 09:36 AM   #23
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To me, the really interesting thing to contemplate is the possibility of a brokered convention.
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Old 02-06-2020, 09:49 AM   #24
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Oh goodness please no. It made a lot more sense with the two candidates in 2016. Literally zero people want to see their efforts and donations and campaigning wasted just to have the machine choose who their candidate is.

Follow the money vs performance. That’ll tell you who falls next.
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Old 02-06-2020, 10:02 AM   #25
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https://twitter.com/adamgoldmanNYT/s...82190659272704
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Old 02-06-2020, 10:16 AM   #26
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yes indeed the sky is falling.
Not so much the sky is falling. But I think it's wise to look ahead and see who has the best shot at actually winning when it comes down to our idiotic EC system.

Would Bernie win the popular vote? I believe he would. But obviously won't matter.

So dealing with the EC math,
Of the swing states, which ones do you think Bernie would be favored to win?

FL
PA
WI
MI
NC
AZ
TX
GA
NH
Maine

I would say confidently

FL
PA
WI (close but not confident)
*MI

NC
AZ
TX
GA
*NH
*Maine


But that's it.
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Old 02-06-2020, 10:17 AM   #27
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Oh goodness please no. It made a lot more sense with the two candidates in 2016. Literally zero people want to see their efforts and donations and campaigning wasted just to have the machine choose who their candidate is.

Follow the money vs performance. That’ll tell you who falls next.
Well it won't be Sanders if you follow the money.
25 Million in January alone.
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Old 02-06-2020, 10:42 AM   #28
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This noon press conference is going to be a dooooooozy
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Old 02-06-2020, 10:48 AM   #29
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The only polls anyone should care about is the Trump vs. DEMOCRAT polls on a state by state basis, and only in the swing States.

These polls still show that a moderate Dem (Biden, Bloomberg) wins comfortably while Sanders probably pulls out a close one but it's very much up in the air.

This is the only thing that matters. For me to believe that Sanders is going to win, these are the polls that need to start moving in his direction.
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Old 02-06-2020, 10:50 AM   #30
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Quote:
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Of the swing states, which ones do you think Bernie would be favored to win?

FL
PA
WI
MI
NC
AZ
TX
GA
NH
Maine
he wins NH rather easily and probably WI, MI, and PA (he knows how to appeal to underemployed working class rust belt voters), and then the rest of them don't matter because that right there is 278 EC delegates.
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Old 02-06-2020, 10:53 AM   #31
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Isn’t there videos of Bernie palling around with Castro or other communists ?

If I’m thinking of the correct videos, doesn’t that count him out in FL? Or we assume he wins over the MAGA crowd there.

I can’t see FL going blue for anyone but Biden. And even then i don’t think he pulls it off.
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Old 02-06-2020, 10:54 AM   #32
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This noon press conference is going to be a dooooooozy


His National Prayer Breakfast talk was him TRYING to not gloat too much
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Old 02-06-2020, 11:05 AM   #33
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Isn’t there videos of Bernie palling around with Castro or other communists ?

If I’m thinking of the correct videos, doesn’t that count him out in FL? Or we assume he wins over the MAGA crowd there.

I can’t see FL going blue for anyone but Biden. And even then i don’t think he pulls it off.
Bernie isn't winning FL, video or not. I want to believe he can win PA. If he can, then he can squeak it out. But everyone keeps saying that it has to be "a huge definitive victory" to really put Trumpism out to pasture. Squeaking it out by 10 points is not that.

And at this point, I don't see Sanders, Pete or Warren doing anything but squeaking it out.

But hey, a wins a win.
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Old 02-06-2020, 11:11 AM   #34
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the latest trump v sanders poll from january has sanders winning FL by 6 points but sure he has no chance in hell.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6842.html
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Old 02-06-2020, 11:12 AM   #35
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His National Prayer Breakfast talk was him TRYING to not gloat too much
He called the GOP senate "courageous" for the decision they made on impeachment.

I have to admit that i do pray for the president. I pray every day that Air Force 1 and 2 have a midair collision. So far, no response from the Lord.
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Old 02-06-2020, 11:19 AM   #36
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trump v sanders realclearpolitics polling averages:

FL - tie
PA - sanders + 3.7
WI - sanders +2
MI - sanders +6.7
NC - sanders +1
AZ - trump +5
TX - trump +3.2
GA - not listed (likely trump)
NH - sanders +5
ME - sanders +8

if the vote were taken today based on those numbers, even if we give FL to trump, sanders wins the electoral college 291-246.
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Old 02-06-2020, 11:20 AM   #37
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the latest trump v sanders poll from january has sanders winning FL by 6 points but sure he has no chance in hell.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6842.html
Sorry, but these polls don't mean much at this point. Sure, before Trump blankets the airwaves with every lie and smear about sanders, and opening up investigations into him or his wife. Sure, hypothetically in the future voters say they like sanders more than trump in FL. I'm sure that was the case in 2016 as well.
Trump as we know is not your usual candidate. I just think any state that is close, is advantage Trump for pretty much anyone, but more so for some.
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Old 02-06-2020, 11:22 AM   #38
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The only polls anyone should care about is the Trump vs. DEMOCRAT polls on a state by state basis, and only in the swing States.
i give the numbers from these exact polls and

Quote:
Originally Posted by womanfish View Post
Sorry, but these polls don't mean much at this point.
lol this fucking place sometimes
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Old 02-06-2020, 12:13 PM   #39
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i give the numbers from these exact polls and



lol this fucking place sometimes
Sorry, i really didn't feel like responding the same thing twice.

But here's the thing. I know I'm probably projecting a bit too much with 2016 in the back of my mind.
Like I've said before. Bernie isn't Hillary. Bernie has some real strengths going up against Trump that Hillary didn't have.
One, he's a fighter. Tenacious, will bring it to Trump in actually a similar way that Trump brings it to others. His base, as much as they disturb, annoy and at times frighten me, are also tenacious and loyal.
He has a formidable ground game, and has had structures in place all over the country for longer than the other Dem candidates have. He knows how to mobilize and get out the vote. He knows how to target certain demo's within a state that others may not.
He also is a fundraising machine

The cons I see are him being summed up as socialist/communist. Branded by that - where it is the first thing people think of when they hear his name.
His relative weakness among older voters when they are the most dependable voting block by more than double over younger voters.
And maybe most importantly, shouting revolution! especially financial revolution during the best economy we've had in decades is not a winner.
Also shouting revolution! when you about to be labeled a communist isn't so great either.

I do believe he could scrap it out and win. At this point more so than Pete or Warren.

Additionally, Bloomberg will throw this race into a whole different universe within a few weeks. So all this conjecture may be turned on its head. It will interesting to see how this all shakes out.
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Old 02-06-2020, 12:32 PM   #40
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Looks like Pete got a bump

Latest NH poll:

Sanders at 25 percent - unchanged.
Buttigieg at 19 percent, up 4
Biden at 12 percent, down 3
Warren at 11 percent
Amy Klobuchar at 6
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