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Old 02-11-2020, 06:45 AM   #281
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Originally Posted by womanfish View Post
In the last week betting averages went from Bloomberg 15% Sanders 41% to Bloomberg 23% to Bernie 42%. So over the last week, Bloomberg has had an over 50% gain. If Sanders gets tangled up in a very close 1/2 finish tomorrow night, it could start to get a bit tricky for him.

Bloomberg has 3 more weeks to carpet bomb the super tuesday states, with plenty of staff on the ground. Bloomberg has the ability to get traction in states that Bernie usually would do the best in, and someone like Biden wouldn't.



Again, so much for Bloomberg is dependent on who leaves the race and when. But I think Bernie has a ceiling . There is a lot of talk about "lanes" in the race. And right now there is a Bernie lane and a not Bernie lane.

This doesn't bode well for Sanders. I would guess that whenever there is a drop out, 75% of those voters eventually shift to Bloomberg, if not more. Because they would have been with Bernie at this point if they wanted to. But they chose any other candidate but him.



Why do I say eventually? Ok, we know the bottom ones will drop soon. Bennet, and Yang. and Patrick.

Steyer will drop out after super Tuesday as hopefully Tulsi will.

I predict that Amy and Pete will also call it quits post super tuesday.

That's 20 points, probably 15 going to Bloomberg, and 5 to Sanders.

Biden and Warren are question marks. Their departure will depend on how they do this month, and its unclear their future right now.

But they will drop out. There's another 35 points. 25 to Bloomberg 10 to Sanders



Putting Bloomberg at around 55% and Bernie at 45%

Much like the split between Hillary and Bernie



Yes this is all conjecture. Bloomberg could crash and burn in the debates. Bernie could have another health issue. Who knows. But I think we all can agree that at this point, all those people will drop out, unless some miracle happens with Biden, and he survives through super tuesday. Not likely. Praying he gets pummeled in the next few weeks.
I'm fully in support of Bloomberg and I think there's great momentum building for him.

He's still a long shot.

Things have to break a certain way here, and some of these other moderate candidates need to drop out.

Currently the scenarios in which Sanders wins the nomination are greater than those in which Bloomberg does - especially if Warren drops before any of the three moderates.

Bloomberg is attempting a course that has not been done before. A lot of shit has to break a certain way. Until he starts winning delegates, he's still a long shot
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Old 02-11-2020, 08:08 AM   #282
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US Politics XIX: Just an Echo Chamber Living In Your Heads

I’m listening to Mayor Pete on MSNBC XM channel and it finally hit me who he sounds like!Click image for larger version

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Old 02-11-2020, 09:44 AM   #283
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Bloomberg established a data mining company called Hawkfish last year. They have well over 100 employees now, including the former CIO of Goldman Sachs and poached numerous Facebook data collection, mining and marketing people. If any of you watched the Brexit movie with Benedict Cumberbatch, you'll have a good sense of the sheer power of data and targeted marketing. They are also still aggressively hiring people and almost nobody is talking about it.

Bloomberg made his billions on a proprietary data platform which goes at $30ish K a year and has hundreds of thousands of users. There is nobody better in this world than him when it comes to this sort of thing. He is playing a real and aggressive game here and he's not throwing $ into the wind. We all laughed when he entered the race and he's now polling with the top of the pack having never been on a primary ballot and having not participated in a single debate. Why? Because he knows what we don't - what the data shows, at a depth probably 10 levels beyond what the public pollsters are looking at.
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:47 AM   #284
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Well, “betting averages” aren’t a thing, and pooling averages of probabilities isn’t really a proper realistic truth model. Much like RCP polling averages, “betting averages” only really tell you how stuff is changing over time. Bloomberg moved up for bookies who are betting on something that they actually don’t know - like you’ve said, someone has to drop out for Bloomberg’s chances to be any higher.

Real truth models aren’t going to make singular decisions like that. They’re going to simulate possible outcomes based upon what data we have on hand - polling, historical polling and historical impact of polling at certain times, cash on hand, etc. etc.

FiveThirtyEight has a great forecasting model. They’re the ones who are using real forecasting models based upon historical and current info, not just aggregating polls which often get misinterpreted (and I do acknowledge that in your specific example the average of those odds is valid enough as they’re all the same, but the average would have no meaning if they were not). Check this out: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

Long story short, it’s unlikely that enough candidates drop out before they do damage to Bloomberg’s (or their own) chances. Biden falling does little but make the field messier, and really opens the floor for more mayhem.
Thanks for the link! I'll check it out.
It does seem that any way this shakes out today, We are looking at a messy path forward.
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:07 AM   #285
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Bloomberg established a data mining company called Hawkfish last year. They have well over 100 employees now, including the former CIO of Goldman Sachs and poached numerous Facebook data collection, mining and marketing people. If any of you watched the Brexit movie with Benedict Cumberbatch, you'll have a good sense of the sheer power of data and targeted marketing. They are also still aggressively hiring people and almost nobody is talking about it.

Bloomberg made his billions on a proprietary data platform which goes at $30ish K a year and has hundreds of thousands of users. There is nobody better in this world than him when it comes to this sort of thing. He is playing a real and aggressive game here and he's not throwing $ into the wind. We all laughed when he entered the race and he's now polling with the top of the pack having never been on a primary ballot and having not participated in a single debate. Why? Because he knows what we don't - what the data shows, at a depth probably 10 levels beyond what the public pollsters are looking at.
This sort of echos what I said a week or so back. But you say it much better. LOL.
I said that I don't think that Bloomberg will allow himself to lose. I don't think someone goes into a billion dollar or more process without some confidence that we aren't fully understanding.

Think about it. Before he got in, and word leaked that he was doing polling first to see if he would jump in. I thought. Hahahaha, yeah, go ahead and poll away Mike, I think you're going to see that you're not wanted.
Then a couple weeks later he jumps in.
I'm thinking, I don't know what polls he's looking at, but I can't imagine that they can be good.
There's no way he's going to get black voter support.

And now reading your post I see. It's not just "doing some polling".

I still wonder if the one thing all of his models can't predict. And that's ego. The ego of presidential nominees, that want to hang on as long as they can, even when they know they can't win. Michael Bennett anyone? Tulsi the traitor? Yang, Yang, and Yang. They should be gone already.
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:11 AM   #286
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US Politics XIX: Just an Echo Chamber Living In Your Heads

I’m really looking forward to the surge of traditional non-voters who are going to flood the polls today in support of Bernie.

How big do we expect turnout to be? Huge, right?
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:52 AM   #287
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Originally Posted by anitram View Post
Bloomberg established a data mining company called Hawkfish last year. They have well over 100 employees now, including the former CIO of Goldman Sachs and poached numerous Facebook data collection, mining and marketing people. If any of you watched the Brexit movie with Benedict Cumberbatch, you'll have a good sense of the sheer power of data and targeted marketing. They are also still aggressively hiring people and almost nobody is talking about it.

Bloomberg made his billions on a proprietary data platform which goes at $30ish K a year and has hundreds of thousands of users. There is nobody better in this world than him when it comes to this sort of thing. He is playing a real and aggressive game here and he's not throwing $ into the wind. We all laughed when he entered the race and he's now polling with the top of the pack having never been on a primary ballot and having not participated in a single debate. Why? Because he knows what we don't - what the data shows, at a depth probably 10 levels beyond what the public pollsters are looking at.
This is why he has a chance.

He's going to have to answer for stop and frisk. I imagine the NYPD's involvement in surveillance of the Muslim community will be an issue in the primaries as well. Neither will play in the general, especially when compared to Trump's record, but both will be major hurdles in the primary.

The irony of stop and frisk is that it was a data driven approach - as most things with Bloomberg tend to be. I imagine this will be the defacto defense by his surrogates, while he apologizes publicly. It'll be controversial, but I don't see it as a deal breaker in the general. Again - we're talking about a program that was, in hindsight, wrong - but was aimed at reducing gun violence. Police were sent to the areas where the gun violence was. Those neighborhoods we're almost entirely minority. It was effective, but ultimately eroded trust.
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:00 AM   #288
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Also Trump thinks the revolutionary war began in New Hampshire. Cause Trump.
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:03 AM   #289
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I’m really looking forward to the surge of traditional non-voters who are going to flood the polls today in support of Bernie.

How big do we expect turnout to be? Huge, right?
Lawrence O'Donnell said something this morning that sort of goes along with that.
He pointed out that Sanders has lost half of his support since 2016. He ran at about 47-48% nationally last time, 23-25 this time. NH, 60% last time, 27-30 this time.

Iowa turnout was pretty flat. NH sounds like it may be as well. I am not really concerned about the turnout numbers. I think that it reflects that a lot of voters like a lot of the candidates and just want to get to a nominee that will beat Trump. There isn't a singular figure that is energizing the party. Sanders wants to be that person, but it's not turning out that way.
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:10 AM   #290
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Lawrence O'Donnell said something this morning that sort of goes along with that.

He pointed out that Sanders has lost half of his support since 2016. He ran at about 47-48% nationally last time, 23-25 this time. NH, 60% last time, 27-30 this time.



Iowa turnout was pretty flat. NH sounds like it may be as well. I am not really concerned about the turnout numbers. I think that it reflects that a lot of voters like a lot of the candidates and just want to get to a nominee that will beat Trump. There isn't a singular figure that is energizing the party. Sanders wants to be that person, but it's not turning out that way.
I'm incredibly concerned about turnout right now.

I also think that every candidate in these two primaries is missing the boat here by not making the election about the issue that is the #1 most important issue to the majority of voters - removing Trump.

The general public cares deeply about their health care. They don't care about which left leaning health care plan is leftier than the other. The hardcore very involved do. The majority don't. They want to be inspired by someone, and so far nobody is bringing that to the table.
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:13 AM   #291
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US Politics XIX: Just an Echo Chamber Living In Your Heads

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This is why he has a chance.

He's going to have to answer for stop and frisk. I imagine the NYPD's involvement in surveillance of the Muslim community will be an issue in the primaries as well. Neither will play in the general, especially when compared to Trump's record, but both will be major hurdles in the primary.

The irony of stop and frisk is that it was a data driven approach - as most things with Bloomberg tend to be. I imagine this will be the defacto defense by his surrogates, while he apologizes publicly. It'll be controversial, but I don't see it as a deal breaker in the general. Again - we're talking about a program that was, in hindsight, wrong - but was aimed at reducing gun violence. Police were sent to the areas where the gun violence was. Those neighborhoods we're almost entirely minority. It was effective, but ultimately eroded trust.



In the general, and amongst whites, especially moderate-to-conservative whites, stop-and-frisk could be seen as a tough-on-crime/he-cleaned-up-New-York net positive.

We need to remember that, no matter how many times Gzus talks about his crush on Nikki Haley or how Candace Owens said something, most conservative whites — even independent ones! — are a little bit racist, in exactly this kind of way.
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:15 AM   #292
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Lawrence O'Donnell said something this morning that sort of goes along with that.

He pointed out that Sanders has lost half of his support since 2016. He ran at about 47-48% nationally last time, 23-25 this time. NH, 60% last time, 27-30 this time.



Iowa turnout was pretty flat. NH sounds like it may be as well. I am not really concerned about the turnout numbers. I think that it reflects that a lot of voters like a lot of the candidates and just want to get to a nominee that will beat Trump. There isn't a singular figure that is energizing the party. Sanders wants to be that person, but it's not turning out that way.


In fairness to Sanders, he was running against only one person. But I think it does show that there was a quarter of the electorate were Never Hillary.
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:29 AM   #293
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This is why he has a chance.

He's going to have to answer for stop and frisk. I imagine the NYPD's involvement in surveillance of the Muslim community will be an issue in the primaries as well. Neither will play in the general, especially when compared to Trump's record, but both will be major hurdles in the primary.

The irony of stop and frisk is that it was a data driven approach - as most things with Bloomberg tend to be. I imagine this will be the defacto defense by his surrogates, while he apologizes publicly. It'll be controversial, but I don't see it as a deal breaker in the general. Again - we're talking about a program that was, in hindsight, wrong - but was aimed at reducing gun violence. Police were sent to the areas where the gun violence was. Those neighborhoods we're almost entirely minority. It was effective, but ultimately eroded trust.
I think what we're seeing in Bloomberg's numbers is that privileged white people will care more about stop and frisk than many African Americans.

Why? Because black voters don't just want Trump removed from office, they NEED him removed from office. There are white nationalists in the White House. We have an overt racist in the oval office. We have a corrupt AG. Courts being swamped with right wing judges. This is not like white people that can nitpick about healthcare, or need to find a candidate that "speaks to them" or some bullshit. It's about literal survival for them and their family.

This time, black voters are for the most part, looking at who can remove Trump. That's it. You can see that Biden had big support at the beginning even though he had some not so great history on racial issues. But he was the most electable.
Then, Joe drops 22 points and Bloomberg gains 16 points when he starts to tank. They didn't move to Bernie or Warren, they moved to Bloomberg. Because he's a racial justice champion? LOL. No, because he is the one that can win.
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:35 AM   #294
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In fairness to Sanders, he was running against only one person. But I think it does show that there was a quarter of the electorate were Never Hillary.
Well, yes. But it shows that 50% of his supporters were just fine moving to someone else. It plays very much against his constant mantra of building this Huuuge grassroots movement, and the sheer numbers of those people will be what gets him to the White House and also, he uses that as an answer when they ask how will his proposals get passed in the Houses.

That shows that this revolution is not growing, it's sputtering and I think he's damn lucky that Amy K is eating Pete's lunch right now, because if that hadn't happened. I think Sanders would have had a fight for the number one spot.

Now if Amy really surges and Pete finishes third. He needs to go. seriously.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:51 PM   #295
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US Politics XIX: Just an Echo Chamber Living In Your Heads

Iowa turnout was down compared to 2016, just barely. But we’re being told that youth vote was up a few ticks so that means they’ll finally come out and vote this time!!

Also,


https://twitter.com/gzornick/status/...862932480?s=21

Click on it to see what’s weird. Didn’t post the full photo
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Old 02-11-2020, 01:03 PM   #296
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In the general, and amongst whites, especially moderate-to-conservative whites, stop-and-frisk could be seen as a tough-on-crime/he-cleaned-up-New-York net positive.

We need to remember that, no matter how many times Gzus talks about his crush on Nikki Haley or how Candace Owens said something, most conservative whites — even independent ones! — are a little bit racist, in exactly this kind of way.
Got some data for that? Or just another ignorant, bigoted comment from one of the known bigots on this forum
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Old 02-11-2020, 01:11 PM   #297
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Got some data for that? Or just another ignorant, bigoted comment from one of the known bigots on this forum
Have you got any insight as to why Trump's approval with black voters is basically non-existent?

Do you think they are all stupid?
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Old 02-11-2020, 01:14 PM   #298
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Have you got any insight as to why Trump's approval with black voters is basically non-existent?

Do you think they are all stupid?
Oh poor uninformed anitram. I guess you aren't familiar with the Democratic Plantation!
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Old 02-11-2020, 01:15 PM   #299
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Got some data for that? Or just another ignorant, bigoted comment from one of the known bigots on this forum


Do you think it’s at all a stretch to think that stop-and-frisk as a policy is going to be more popular with whites in Ohio than Latinos in Jackson Heights?

It’s well known that conservatives are more racist. Even independent ones. If you voted for Donald Trump, you voted for a known racist who had appointed white supremacists like Stephen Miller into positions of power and was endorsed by David Duke.
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Old 02-11-2020, 01:21 PM   #300
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US Politics XIX: Just an Echo Chamber Living In Your Heads

https://twitter.com/mimirocah1/statu...652715520?s=21

Agree. Might be more critical to go after Barr than Trump


https://twitter.com/renato_mariotti/...409154561?s=21
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