OP
OP
Domino's isn't pizza you canadian scum
US Politics XIX: Just an Echo Chamber Living In Your Heads
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OP
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If I'm paying the money I spend on pizza to the government instead, in exchange for free pizza, well, then I save money in the long term. I think.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
OP
OP
My employer will be able to pay me more money that can then be used to purchase pepperoni
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
To Jerry. I agree that NV is now really strange to predict. Biden was the leader over 3 weeks ago. Now does he finish top 3? Steyer has spent a ton of money, so polling in the top 3, but will those really turn into votes? Bernie has made inroads with Latino voters, especially the Vegas Unions. Will Pete and Amy's momentum do anything for them here or will they land like a thud there. NV is a world away from IA and NH. Oh shit, and I forgot Warren!
If momentum does do something, you could have a very tightly packed top 4 or even 5. But again, with the split vote this would again put Sanders at the top.
Now for tonight. The takeaways.
Bernie did ok. And that's an honest take. If Amy hadn't had a surprise surge after the debate, Pete most likely would have won tonight.
Bernie didn't do well in the suburbs. I guess that isn't a surprise, but it is the key to beating Trump.
The youth vote was down 7% this time (most updated exit polling) It's hard to hop onto Bernie's message that it's going to be a monumental movement of young people turning out to vote to bring a victory against Trump, and also to pass his policies, when he gets 12% turnout of the young vote in very favorable state for him.
Sanders support plummeted with Independents from 2016. He got 72% in 2016, and 29% this time. Pete got 24% and Amy 18%. This means that independents broke to the moderate candidates.
Now the Delegate count:
Pete 23
Bernie 21
Warren 8
Amy 7
Biden 6
This is why NV and SC actually matter more than ever this time.
Oh, And Bill Weld got 9% in NH. That is remarkable. 12,000 people went out to just put a vote in against Trump.
If momentum does do something, you could have a very tightly packed top 4 or even 5. But again, with the split vote this would again put Sanders at the top.
Now for tonight. The takeaways.
Bernie did ok. And that's an honest take. If Amy hadn't had a surprise surge after the debate, Pete most likely would have won tonight.
Bernie didn't do well in the suburbs. I guess that isn't a surprise, but it is the key to beating Trump.
The youth vote was down 7% this time (most updated exit polling) It's hard to hop onto Bernie's message that it's going to be a monumental movement of young people turning out to vote to bring a victory against Trump, and also to pass his policies, when he gets 12% turnout of the young vote in very favorable state for him.
Sanders support plummeted with Independents from 2016. He got 72% in 2016, and 29% this time. Pete got 24% and Amy 18%. This means that independents broke to the moderate candidates.
Now the Delegate count:
Pete 23
Bernie 21
Warren 8
Amy 7
Biden 6
This is why NV and SC actually matter more than ever this time.
Oh, And Bill Weld got 9% in NH. That is remarkable. 12,000 people went out to just put a vote in against Trump.
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Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
That sorta sounds like Tennessee sushi
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
the correct term is "hoser".
OP
OP
DC has good fancy pizza. You can't just get a good slice for shit.
DC's bacon egg and cheese game is akin to the 62 Mets.
OP
OP
Sorrieeee
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Weld is a former MA Governor, so being in a neighboring state may be part of the reason, not just anti-Orange sentiment.
Clearly being a former MA Governor is a big boost in NH, just look at how it helped Deval Taxprick.
Curious to see what kind of numbers Weld pulls elsewhere, he obviously has no shot but if he gets close to 10% in a lot of other places that will say quite a bit.
OP
OP
15% of republican primary voters chose someone other than President McPoopypants
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Well, that's not really the point. I mean, Weld will probably get nothing anywhere else. But the fact that nobody that didn't like Trump actually had to vote in the primary at all, knowing he would win, 15,000 people took the time out of their day to vote against him.
This is more important in the overall picture of NH. Clinton won by less than 3,000 votes. If Trump only has 85% support there, and there are 20,000 fewer registered republicans than last time, NH seems pretty safe in 2020.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
Also, I think heard this morning that turnout was strong. Certainly all the Iowaiting drew attention to the primary, but still a good sight.
https://twitter.com/naveedajamali/status/1227599385556467713?s=21
Doesn’t mean he can’t be charged separately but.....we’re run by the mob now.
Wonder how many letters the Dems will send to state how concerned they are??
Doesn’t mean he can’t be charged separately but.....we’re run by the mob now.
Wonder how many letters the Dems will send to state how concerned they are??
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
in other "kicking gays to excite (some) Christians" news:
just remember, LGBT+ are the real bigots.
just remember, LGBT+ are the real bigots.
You keep playing identity politics!
Bluer White
New Yorker
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
Should be interesting. Sanders is going to have to start performing better if he’s going to win over the 70% of his not-party party who want someone other than Sanders.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Yes because clearly only 30% are willing to support him, and 2016 is proof of that.
Wait just a hot minute... he got 43% of the popular vote in 2016. If you’re wondering where his 7% is, sure, I agree. Barack Obama got 47% in 2008.
People will rally around the campaign that wins.
Wait just a hot minute... he got 43% of the popular vote in 2016. If you’re wondering where his 7% is, sure, I agree. Barack Obama got 47% in 2008.
People will rally around the campaign that wins.
I think the concerning issue for Bernie is that Elizabeth Warren has bled more than half of her support thus far (according to polls and the first 2 states) and none of it seems to have gone to him. I've said this a couple of times, that I think it's a mistake to assume that's where her voters will go. I think Klobuchar will pick up some of the women's votes and I honestly think that Bloomberg will get the rest. It won't be the corpse of the Biden campaign of Buttigieg who very viciously and unfairly clobbered her M4A plan from late summer on.
So where is Bernie going to get additional votes as people inevitably start to drop out?
So where is Bernie going to get additional votes as people inevitably start to drop out?
Bluer White
New Yorker
Plenty of campaign cash and true enthusiastic support.....versus easily more campaign cash and likely to be favoured by superdelegates.
Why would either Sanders or Bloom back down before convention time? This race gonna make some history.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
You genuinely think Warren votes are going to Bloomberg? Based on what? I agree that identity politics will lend many to Klobuchar for sure. Just the same though? Biden voters can and will end up in the lap of Bernie.
Most importantly, I think you’re reading way too much into pre-super Tuesday. New Hampshire voted 60% for Bernie in 2016. Why? He was different. They are different. They voted different. Let’s see what happens in states that don’t think they’re special.
Not all of them, but at least as many as will go to Bernie, if not more.
Warren's bread & butter supporters were always comprised of the professional class, the lawyer/doctor/accountant sorts who are probably upper middle class but have a strong social justice streak. In their late 30s, 40s mostly. These are the sorts of people who themselves may be policy wonks and/or appreciate her intellect and professorial ability to break down complicated ideas, but they're inherently not the sort who would directly benefit by Bernie's far more left/progressive initiatives. They don't need free college education (for themselves or their kids), they by and large don't care about marijuana legalization one way or another and the notion that union membership should be double may very well totally go counter to their professional experience/success.
Who do they go to if not Bernie? Klobuchar to some extent, but if/when she flames out due to no money and her inability to draw in POCs (though I recognize that could change), the most natural choice is Bloomberg - his policies are actually more progressive than Klobuchar's, he has that fighting spirit that Warren brought to the race, and most of all, if Americans are willing to be bought, then he's your guy.
Most of my friends fall into this category and were Warren supporters. Maybe one would vote for Bernie. He's just not really a natural fit for a lot of her constituency.
Will he pick up some of her supporters? Yes, but you tell me where half of her support has gone to? Not to him...
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I don’t know, that sounds just like Irvine declaring that Bernie can’t get more of his current 25%. It sounds like what you hope for is what you’re presenting, and not what’s realistic.
You’re complicating who will go to Bloomberg where it’s convenient to do so, but not when it comes to who goes to Klobuchar. There’s a bias against Sanders. An understandable and reasonable one. But it exists nonetheless.
He’s the natural recipient of almost all Warren supporters who don’t go for Klobuchar. Hes also the natural recipient of people who want “something different” just as Pete and Amy and Bloomberg all are in some way.
There was no miraculous down-shift of voters willing to vote for Bernie. His floor is at least 43%, and only up from there.
You’re complicating who will go to Bloomberg where it’s convenient to do so, but not when it comes to who goes to Klobuchar. There’s a bias against Sanders. An understandable and reasonable one. But it exists nonetheless.
He’s the natural recipient of almost all Warren supporters who don’t go for Klobuchar. Hes also the natural recipient of people who want “something different” just as Pete and Amy and Bloomberg all are in some way.
There was no miraculous down-shift of voters willing to vote for Bernie. His floor is at least 43%, and only up from there.
Oh yeah, you read right through me. Meanwhile I have been opposed to the notion of Bloomberg before he declared, when he declared and continue to be appalled at the idea of a purchased presidency. Why would you suggest this is what I hope for? Based not on nothing but actually on the opposite?
Again, I have to ask - with Warren's support all but collapsing in Iowa and then much moreso in NH, why is it that Bernie was not the main recipient of most of those votes, nevermind "almost all"?
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
i saw some reporting on MSNBC a couple days ago about Warren supporters having their second choice be Bloomberg
It didn't shock me because when i saw Biden bite it in Iowa and start to fall in NH polls. I said (to myself) I guess I'm a Warren/Bloomberg supporter now. Meaning, I like Warren better, but if she drops out, Bloomberg it is.
I was thinking the same thing about Bernie and newness. I think that definitely plays a part. I do feel like there is some "Bernie fatigue" in the party. I know i grew tired of him quite a while ago. LOL. I kid, I kid.
Bernie works hard, no one can argue that. But right now he is getting really lucky.
Winning by 1.5% in NH, means if not for Amy's debate performance, Pete would have won NH.
He then gets probably the biggest break of all, with Biden tanking in the first two states, which now puts him at the top of the pack for the next two states, especially because Amy and Pete will be there too.
I guess my point is, that everything is falling in place just right for him as he heads towards super tuesday. But will that mean he's really the strongest for the general? And how long will things break his way just right. I dunno.
I think it's just weird to see him finish at the top of two states, but still feel like he underperformed. LIke i said yesterday, it feels like something other than momentum.
I expect Sanders to win NV, and with Steyer handing out money on the streets of SC, I'm guessing Bernie has a very strong shot at number one there too. Cause there will be 4 moderates still breaking up the vote.
This is all starting to get fascinating.
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LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
It’s not that personal geez. I only find myself defending Bernie so much because I’m mildly biased for him, but when trying to view things objectively it’s hard not to see how much people let their lack of desire for Bernie play a role in their biased view of how things will play out.
I only suggest it because I absolutely think in no way whatsoever do Bloomberg and Sanders split Warren votes. I simply think your mind is polluted by New Hampshire and Iowa and... again... a lack of appetite for Sanders. Sanders’ 2016 performance doesn’t pair well with your theories. The progressive base in the Democratic Party is sizable and willing to vote for Sanders if they must.
Because 1) identify politics is important to a notable amount of voters and 2) there are still 6+ candidates in the field and we’ve only seen the most self-important of primary states. You’re attempting to rationalize results based upon Iowa and New Hampshire. If we did that, 2016 went to Bernie in a landslide. Biden isn’t out of this race and voters still have 6+ candidates to choose from. It’s overt simplistic to think that New Hampshire voters not defecting to Sanders is indicative of a the overall primary. Sanders is neither set to be the candidate nor losing votes. We are witnessing an open field, and we need to wait until we see what some real states do.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
I think Bernie is polarizing. I think he has his supporters who are already voting for him, and then there’s everyone else. Maybe he’s get half of the Warren folks, but Bernie is a well known commodity now. It’s not 2016. What’s left of the Biden camp will go to Amy K or Pete.
But, yes, as we’ve said, it’s super early.
Anitram’s read of the Warren voter matches my own understanding, and my experience amongst my friends. And I’m quite sympathetic to her. I just think she’s the wrong candidate to go against Trump — she takes the bait, and will come across as Hillary Part 2.
We’re she running against, say, Rubio or Cruz, I think she’d do well.
But, yes, as we’ve said, it’s super early.
Anitram’s read of the Warren voter matches my own understanding, and my experience amongst my friends. And I’m quite sympathetic to her. I just think she’s the wrong candidate to go against Trump — she takes the bait, and will come across as Hillary Part 2.
We’re she running against, say, Rubio or Cruz, I think she’d do well.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Gotta say, here’s a gem from the Bloomberg campaign....
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