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Old 02-10-2020, 08:55 PM   #261
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Welp, If the latest national poll isn't an outlier, I'm guessing Bloomberg is going to be the nominee


The odds are incredibly stacked against Bloomberg and a poll showing him in third isn’t enough. I would suspect this type of poll lends favorably to a brokered convention.
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Old 02-10-2020, 09:00 PM   #262
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You will, and her name is Nikki Haley, a woman for all of our daughters to be proud of. And she’s Indian-American, gasp!!
you're a lying dog-faced pony soldier
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Old 02-10-2020, 09:04 PM   #263
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Some of these schlubs need to drop out. I don't think we need a reminder of the results of a primary split in too many ways.
Hallelujah! Seriously - the bottom 5 would free up about 8 points. And sorry Pete and Amy fans, but if they finish 5 and 6 in NV and SC, please drop out before super tuesday, which will be nothing but a trip through the wood chipper for you.

That would free up another 13 points.

So pretty much 21% of the vote total is being sucked up by candidates that will not win the nomination
i think Biden should drop out before super tuesday as well if he doesn't finish in at least a close top two in NV and SC.
Although i am guessing he won't.
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Old 02-10-2020, 09:17 PM   #264
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Anecdotally I think a lot of Warren voters will go to Bloomberg. I move in these circles and the ones I talked to are not considering Bernie at all.

It’s depressing that a competent woman yet again isn’t enough.

It’s appalling that a billionaire can buy his way in.

On the other hand he strips away all the country club republican votes from trump. And is willing to get deep in the trenches dirty. So whatever, this is the shitty world we inhabit and we continue to hope that maybe our daughters will see a female president in their lifetime.
Pretty much sums up my thoughts.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:05 PM   #265
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Hallelujah! Seriously - the bottom 5 would free up about 8 points. And sorry Pete and Amy fans, but if they finish 5 and 6 in NV and SC, please drop out before super tuesday, which will be nothing but a trip through the wood chipper for you.



That would free up another 13 points.



So pretty much 21% of the vote total is being sucked up by candidates that will not win the nomination

i think Biden should drop out before super tuesday as well if he doesn't finish in at least a close top two in NV and SC.

Although i am guessing he won't.
If Biden finishes behind Pete tomorrow he should drop out. He won't, but he should.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:25 PM   #266
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I've seen people write that if Bernie doesn't win the nomination they won't vote or will vote 3rd party. It must be nice to be so brave & noble. Or so privileged that another Trump term won't hurt them. They must live on another planet.
Fucking THIS.

I've had occasional conversations over years where I'd ask what about the poor, POC(in general), the disabled etc wth these kind of people, or third party voters before the Internet made it easier to vote trade between states. Drove me bonkers to know the above groups of people would be sacrificed for that kind of stubbornness (only voting for their Dem candidate and no other).


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ha, they even have a cute nickname for the object of their hatred

They can go fuck themselves. I think Bernie is easily the best candidate but that doesn't mean that there are others that wouldn't also be good acceptable OR that getting the fascist out of office shouldn't be the priority. I don't know why these Bernie cultists can't understand that. Like, they think Bloomberg would be just as bad as Trump just because he's rich. They're absolutists and don't understand that there's a fucking scale of evil! Fore example, not all Wall Street devotees are made equally. Obama wasn't Bush. But try telling Bernie Bros that.

It's like they think that not only is this the only chance for sYsTEmicC ChAnGE but that it can only happen with Bernie. It's like they don't know how politics works or how history works. It's like they're children. But they're not. It's not possible to explain to them that things take time. Trying to talk to those people about nuance is just like talking to Trump supporters. Their minds are closed except to what they want to hear, and all that they want to hear is that they're victims and that they're better than everyone else.

It's like they've voting Bernie at people instead of for people. And if they don't get their guy they don't care what happens. They actually don't care about Nazis marching in the fucking streets, or about the climate, or about anything else except their own ego and grudge from 2016. To be clear, I'm only talking about Bernie supporters who will only vote if Bernie is the candidate.

Their obsession with Iowa and the "conspiracy" to fuck Bernie over is laughable. The same people who spent years demanding evidence that Russia was involved in the last election and then proceeded to disregard every piece of evidence that was presented because it wasn't strong enough are now running around believing something without any evidence to support it at all! It's ridiculous! And if you say "hey, is there proof? what is it?" they'll just attack you.

People who would sit out this election because they can't vote for Bernie are just as bad as people who vote for Trump. Maybe even worse because they pretend to care. Trumpists are open with their malice.
Should of put your caveat at the top.
I like Bernie. it seems that a certain portion of his supporters are nasty, and not thinking of the kinds of groups of people that they say they are concerned about that would be in more trouble if trump is reelected.

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Apparently a small group of GOP Senators — Tillis, McSally, Portman, and Silly Susan Collins — begged Trump not to revenge fire witnesses.

But of course he stepped on their throats and shit in their faces after getting what he wants. Because that’s what con artists do.

It would be surprising, if he hadn’t been doing exactly this for 3+ years and there’s is a long list of bodies with his heelprint on their necks and orange shit on their faces.

What a bunch of humiliating losers, and shame on people who root for the bullies and the thugs.
Yup.

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Can we impose a rule where no one compares pre-1964 Dixiecrats to modern day Democrats? The parties have switched, ie, Strom Thurmond.

It’s literally the laziest, stupidest thing you can say about American politics.

The old southern racists had left the Democrats by the 1980s and all become Republicans because the Republicans became more racist because they became the party of the wealthy and used racism to get poor people to vote for lower taxes because it would mean fewer social benefits for non-white people.
This.

When LBJ signed the Civil Rights Bill in ?'64, he said - there goes The South ie. the Dem Dixiecrats.

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After we see the results come in tomorrow from NH, just like a nice normal election day. It will be funny how the media's obsession with the "CHAOS OF IOWA!!!!" "DEMOCRATS IN DISARAY!!!!" Is totally forgotten and moved past.
But it's always the crooked liberal media that Trump so hates that seems to have to blow up tiny things from Democrats into huge, days long disasters, and Trump's actual democracy shredding actions are just sort of accepted. "He's resilient," "not your typical president"... blah blah
Well, the commercial media anyway.

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Oh yeah. I think her biggest mistake was to hop onto Bernie's plan. If she would have had her own healthcare plan, that softened the edges of full M4A takeover and had that plan from the start. She may be doing much better.
Although, this was always going to come down to only one progressive candidate in the end.
And with Sanders having already had the history and infrastructure and support from 2016, it was probably always going to end this way for her.
Makes me sad.

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Trump doesn’t ask. He extorts.
And expects not loyalty but fealty.

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Anecdotally I think a lot of Warren voters will go to Bloomberg. I move in these circles and the ones I talked to are not considering Bernie at all.

It’s depressing that a competent woman yet again isn’t enough.

It’s appalling that a billionaire can buy his way in.

On the other hand he strips away all the country club republican votes from trump. And is willing to get deep in the trenches dirty. So whatever, this is the shitty world we inhabit and we continue to hope that maybe our daughters will see a female president in their lifetime.

Good point re the country club Republicans.

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You will, and her name is Nikki Haley, a woman for all of our daughters to be proud of. And she’s Indian-American, gasp!!
Noooo, thanks. She's a Republican.

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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
I will echo this. In a different time, against a different Republican, I’d be a supporter. But I don’t trust her in a street fight against a literal Russian-backed mob boss.

It’s also telling that she began to plummet when she did what Bernie has never done — put numbers to the cost of M4A.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:34 PM   #267
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If Biden finishes behind Pete tomorrow he should drop out. He won't, but he should.
As a Biden supporter. I pray he finishes 4th or 5th. 5th would be better.
He needs bad enough numbers to bring down his numbers in the next two contests, and maybe, just maybe he drops by super tuesday.

Amy and Pete are heading for a flat, hard brick wall. Biden needs to fall now.

Shift the bulk of those points (around 33) to Bloomberg and lets get rolling.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:43 PM   #268
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It’s so out in the open now


https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status...628510720?s=21
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:49 PM   #269
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Just in case anyone wanted to taste their own vomit

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1...953050112?s=19
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:54 PM   #270
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Well, yea. They have zero rules anymore and will play to win at all costs.

Meanwhile Liz Warren's going on TV and refusing to give a reason why she's better ta Bernie because, oh my gosh, she told the truth once and got lambasted for it. Heavens.

The Republicans are playing to win and the Democrats are playing nice and discussing policy goals. In a sane and rational world voters would prefer to see thoughtful plans on how they'll pay for health care. That unfortunately is not the world we live in.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:55 PM   #271
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The odds are incredibly stacked against Bloomberg and a poll showing him in third isn’t enough. I would suspect this type of poll lends favorably to a brokered convention.
I'm not sure i understand where you're coming from. A guy who hasn't been in a primary or a debate just hit 15% and has the second highest support among black voters, when that was supposed to be his achilles heel.
He now leads the field in the head to heads against Trump. He has almost a 1000 staffers in over 30 states. And he has unlimited financial resources.

I don't think it's so much that the odds are incredibly stacked against him, as i think it's his race to lose.

The only real wild card for Bloomberg is how long other candidates stay in.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:03 PM   #272
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Well, yea. They have zero rules anymore and will play to win at all costs.

Meanwhile Liz Warren's going on TV and refusing to give a reason why she's better ta Bernie because, oh my gosh, she told the truth once and got lambasted for it. Heavens.

The Republicans are playing to win and the Democrats are playing nice and discussing policy goals. In a sane and rational world voters would prefer to see thoughtful plans on how they'll pay for health care. That unfortunately is not the world we live in.
Yeah, I saw the same thing. Liz, Bernie supports aren't going to come to you! They moved to her briefly as a back up after he had a heart attack.
Get some ovaries and stand up and say, cause I'm a capitalist and hes a socialist. I want to make big change that will help working people while still making America the place that the world wants to do business. or something like that.

This seriously is why Bloomberg has more of an advantage then people know right now.
Usually once a candidate hits the debate stage and takes some lumps, they drop in the polls.
I'm betting now that Mike moves up after the next debate.
There isn't another candidate like him in the field. It will make clear to viewers that he's the one they have been waiting for to topple Trump. And it ain't Pete or Amy, Biden might have 6 or 8 years ago,
The people that think that you can beat Trump with reason and common sense, or logic or having better plans... Oh they are so wrong.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:39 PM   #273
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Bloomberg isn’t afraid of Trump.

I don’t think Bernie is but I’m not sure he can adapt from his playbook. I am very curious if he wins the nomination if his supporters go after Trump and the MAGA crowd like they do anyone on the Dems side when they’re critical of Bernie.....

I think Warren has a sharper wit than people realize but not sure it works against Trump. Kamila Harris seemed better suited to debate him.

Bloomberg can hit Donnie where it hurts, the bank account.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:27 AM   #274
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I’m not even a Republican, I’m an independent, but I am conservative, but this lengthy diatribe does nothing but show how narrow minded and uninformed you are about not only history, but also the Republican and Democratic Party.



The Democratic Party is the party of slavery, the party of Jim Crow, the party of segregation, the party of the KKK, and the party of perpetuating the victim mentality. To the Democratic Party, women are victims, minorities are victims, every intersectional group you can think of are victims, or so the Democrats say.



Conservatives value everyone being viewed based on their ideas, not their gender , skin color, nationality, etc.



You, like most Democrats, are obsessed with identity politics, twisting yourself into a pretzel to mention race, nationality, gender, etc as every reason for someone u like not getting their way.



Yes, the party of racism (Democratic) STILL demonstrate this view by constantly lumping “the black community “ , or “brown people” as victims who need the heroic government to help with every aspect of their lives because “they can’t do it on their own”. That’s a soft bigotry that many people of color are noticing and getting tired of.



I apologize for the length of this, and most of the ignorant nonsense that this thread is, I usually just read for laughs, but this post was so completely ignorant I just had to jump in.


I’m a historian and you really need to google “Southern Strategy.”

I’ve yet to hear a conservative explain why 90% of blacks people vote for Democrats without resorting to the racist trope of “Democratic plantation.”
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:35 AM   #275
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I’m a historian and you really need to google “Southern Strategy.”

I’ve yet to hear a conservative explain why 90% of blacks people vote for Democrats without resorting to the racist trope of “Democratic plantation.”
Gzusfrk wasn't prepared for an historian popping up.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:35 AM   #276
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US Politics XIX: Just an Echo Chamber Living In Your Heads

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Read your history from actual sources, the parties never "switched platforms". Look up the "Southern Strategy" from somewhere other than Snopes. It's the SAME party, the SAME people.



That's why it's Hillary saying "they look alike", Biden saying "poor kids and white kids", Warren admitting that Democrats "only care about the black community at election time", not to mention all the blackface on Dems, THE PARTIES NEVER SWITCHED PLATFORMS. That's your liberal indoctrination speaking.



Scary....


There are literally quotes from Republican strategists, most notably Lee Atwater, saying that they were pursuing a strategy of appealing to the racism of white people. There are many quotes from prominent black people of the time, including Jackie Robinson, saying the Republican Party was becoming more hostile to black people. Historians Kevin Kruse and Matthew Lassiter argue that Southern Strategy is a misnomer since the strategy also involved a defense of de facto segregation and resistance to integration in the North. I agree with Kruse and Lassiter because the Southern Strategy went beyond the South. It was a nationwide effort by the GOP to appeal to white racists who didn’t want to integrate their communities and schools.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:49 AM   #277
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I'm not sure i understand where you're coming from. A guy who hasn't been in a primary or a debate just hit 15% and has the second highest support among black voters, when that was supposed to be his achilles heel.

He now leads the field in the head to heads against Trump. He has almost a 1000 staffers in over 30 states. And he has unlimited financial resources.



I don't think it's so much that the odds are incredibly stacked against him, as i think it's his race to lose.



The only real wild card for Bloomberg is how long other candidates stay in.

I’m coming from raw numbers and campaign modeling and forecasting. The effects of the recent changes in polling have done very little to improve Bloomberg’s chances, which are very little. Unless Joe Biden miraculously drops out before Super Tuesday, which... he won’t... another competitor in the race splitting the share at third or fourth place does nothing but divide the votes. Forecasts pretty much didn’t budge on Sanders being the favorite and didn’t budge on Bloomberg getting anything over a percent or so. They all have seen Biden in free-fall, and they’ve all seen that exchange prop up a stronger likelihood of a brokered convention. We are now sitting at a near 75% chance of either Sanders or a brokered convention.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:54 AM   #278
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First results from midnight voting

Dixville Notch

Bloomberg (write in , not on the ballot) - 3
Sanders - 1
Pete - 1

LOL
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Old 02-11-2020, 01:52 AM   #279
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I’m coming from raw numbers and campaign modeling and forecasting. The effects of the recent changes in polling have done very little to improve Bloomberg’s chances, which are very little. Unless Joe Biden miraculously drops out before Super Tuesday, which... he won’t... another competitor in the race splitting the share at third or fourth place does nothing but divide the votes. Forecasts pretty much didn’t budge on Sanders being the favorite and didn’t budge on Bloomberg getting anything over a percent or so. They all have seen Biden in free-fall, and they’ve all seen that exchange prop up a stronger likelihood of a brokered convention. We are now sitting at a near 75% chance of either Sanders or a brokered convention.
In the last week betting averages went from Bloomberg 15% Sanders 41% to Bloomberg 23% to Bernie 42%. So over the last week, Bloomberg has had an over 50% gain. If Sanders gets tangled up in a very close 1/2 finish tomorrow night, it could start to get a bit tricky for him.
Bloomberg has 3 more weeks to carpet bomb the super tuesday states, with plenty of staff on the ground. Bloomberg has the ability to get traction in states that Bernie usually would do the best in, and someone like Biden wouldn't.

Again, so much for Bloomberg is dependent on who leaves the race and when. But I think Bernie has a ceiling . There is a lot of talk about "lanes" in the race. And right now there is a Bernie lane and a not Bernie lane.
This doesn't bode well for Sanders. I would guess that whenever there is a drop out, 75% of those voters eventually shift to Bloomberg, if not more. Because they would have been with Bernie at this point if they wanted to. But they chose any other candidate but him.

Why do I say eventually? Ok, we know the bottom ones will drop soon. Bennet, and Yang. and Patrick.
Steyer will drop out after super Tuesday as hopefully Tulsi will.
I predict that Amy and Pete will also call it quits post super tuesday.
That's 20 points, probably 15 going to Bloomberg, and 5 to Sanders.
Biden and Warren are question marks. Their departure will depend on how they do this month, and its unclear their future right now.
But they will drop out. There's another 35 points. 25 to Bloomberg 10 to Sanders

Putting Bloomberg at around 55% and Bernie at 45%
Much like the split between Hillary and Bernie

Yes this is all conjecture. Bloomberg could crash and burn in the debates. Bernie could have another health issue. Who knows. But I think we all can agree that at this point, all those people will drop out, unless some miracle happens with Biden, and he survives through super tuesday. Not likely. Praying he gets pummeled in the next few weeks.
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Old 02-11-2020, 02:13 AM   #280
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In the last week betting averages went from Bloomberg 15% Sanders 41% to Bloomberg 23% to Bernie 42%. So over the last week, Bloomberg has had an over 50% gain. If Sanders gets tangled up in a very close 1/2 finish tomorrow night, it could start to get a bit tricky for him.

Bloomberg has 3 more weeks to carpet bomb the super tuesday states, with plenty of staff on the ground. Bloomberg has the ability to get traction in states that Bernie usually would do the best in, and someone like Biden wouldn't.



Again, so much for Bloomberg is dependent on who leaves the race and when. But I think Bernie has a ceiling . There is a lot of talk about "lanes" in the race. And right now there is a Bernie lane and a not Bernie lane.

This doesn't bode well for Sanders. I would guess that whenever there is a drop out, 75% of those voters eventually shift to Bloomberg, if not more. Because they would have been with Bernie at this point if they wanted to. But they chose any other candidate but him.



Why do I say eventually? Ok, we know the bottom ones will drop soon. Bennet, and Yang. and Patrick.

Steyer will drop out after super Tuesday as hopefully Tulsi will.

I predict that Amy and Pete will also call it quits post super tuesday.

That's 20 points, probably 15 going to Bloomberg, and 5 to Sanders.

Biden and Warren are question marks. Their departure will depend on how they do this month, and its unclear their future right now.

But they will drop out. There's another 35 points. 25 to Bloomberg 10 to Sanders



Putting Bloomberg at around 55% and Bernie at 45%

Much like the split between Hillary and Bernie



Yes this is all conjecture. Bloomberg could crash and burn in the debates. Bernie could have another health issue. Who knows. But I think we all can agree that at this point, all those people will drop out, unless some miracle happens with Biden, and he survives through super tuesday. Not likely. Praying he gets pummeled in the next few weeks.


Well, “betting averages” aren’t a thing, and pooling averages of probabilities isn’t really a proper realistic truth model. Much like RCP polling averages, “betting averages” only really tell you how stuff is changing over time. Bloomberg moved up for bookies who are betting on something that they actually don’t know - like you’ve said, someone has to drop out for Bloomberg’s chances to be any higher.

Real truth models aren’t going to make singular decisions like that. They’re going to simulate possible outcomes based upon what data we have on hand - polling, historical polling and historical impact of polling at certain times, cash on hand, etc. etc.

FiveThirtyEight has a great forecasting model. They’re the ones who are using real forecasting models based upon historical and current info, not just aggregating polls which often get misinterpreted (and I do acknowledge that in your specific example the average of those odds is valid enough as they’re all the same, but the average would have no meaning if they were not). Check this out: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

Long story short, it’s unlikely that enough candidates drop out before they do damage to Bloomberg’s (or their own) chances. Biden falling does little but make the field messier, and really opens the floor for more mayhem.
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