US Politics VI

[Irvine511]

Progressive legislation requires the votes, and getting the votes requires running candidates with real vision. Are you going to defend Andrew Cuomo because of some vague notion of pragmatism?

progressive legislation requires winning elections. it wasn't long ago that NY had a Republican governor. a comparatively moderate one, but Manhattan and Brooklyn are not all of New York. i'm going to defend Cuomo based on his ability to win elections. there's also his legislation on same-sex marriage, gun control, and college tuition. i understand that we might want more, and we might want more now, but sometimes small steps must be taken at first.

if Cynthia Nixon proves herself a capable candidate and can unseat Andrew Cuomo and then win a statewide election, more power to her, and i will be happy about that because, yay, it's still a Democrat.

for now, it seems that the support her candidacy is receiving is because not only does she ride the subway but there are some people out there who don't like Andrew Cuomo (who is obviously looking at 2020). i'm fairly certain that these same people will like a Republican governor even less, but perhaps not? perhaps it would be more fun for Cynthia Nixon to run against a moderate Republican and lose?

there are people in here far more knowledgable about NY state politics than i, so i don't have too much more to offer than these cursory observations. so we'll wait and see. but the idea of always primarying from the Left seems like a great way to lose the suburban voters (the people who actually do vote, rather than the ones we keep wishing would) that 2018 and 2020 are going to be all about.

and when 2020 comes around, we're going to be told just what a progressive liberal Cuomo is in the minds of swing voters across the rust belt (which is what upstate NY often looks like). places like Elmira are as shattered as any town along the Ohio river.

The difference between Oprah Winfrey as a candidate and Cynthia Nixon as a candidate is very simple: one has laid out a platform of things they stand for, and one has not.

another difference is that Oprah isn't running for anything.

I also think the fact that the moderate wing of the party jumped onboard with Winfrey and has been tsk-tsking Nixon speaks volumes.

you're doing the Nick strawman thing here -- "people i wish to differentiate myself from are saying certain things" -- no one i know wants Oprah to run for anything, pointing out that celebrity isn't a qualification for office.

i have no desire for an Oprah candidacy.

 

[Nick66]

you're doing the Nick strawman thing here -- "people i wish to differentiate myself from are saying certain things" -- no one i know wants Oprah to run for anything, pointing out that celebrity isn't a qualification for office.

Well, I guess because "no one you know" wants Oprah to run for anything, it must mean no one wants Oprah to run for anything.

You're doing the Irvine511 thing here -- assuming that the people you know represent all people.

 

[Irvine511]

Well, I guess because "no one you know" wants Oprah to run for anything, it must mean no one wants Oprah to run for anything.



You're doing the Irvine511 thing here -- assuming that the people you know represent all people.

Well, no, it doesn’t mean that “no one wants Oprah to run for anything” so I’ll take those words out of my mind ugh and hand them back to you. It means that mainstream Democrats haven’t jumped on Oprah’s nonexistent campaign for President.

Could you please point me to all the moderate Democrats who are begging for Oprah to run for office when she herself has said that she isn’t running for office?

Random twitter accounts and your breathless anecdotes about your online encounters with “the Resistance” (all soon to be catatonically depressed when Mueller doesn’t deliver the goods) don’t count.

Let’s start with mainstream journalists and elected Democrats.

 

[Nick66]

Well, no, it doesn’t mean that “no one wants Oprah to run for anything” so I’ll take those words out of my mind ugh and hand them back to you. It means that mainstream Democrats aren’t begging Oprah to run for President.

Could you please point me to all the moderate Democrats who are begging for Oprah to run for office when she herself has said that she isn’t running for office?

Random twitter accounts and your breathless anecdotes about your online encounters with “the Resistance” (all soon to be catatonically depressed when Mueller doesn’t deliver the goods) don’t count.

Let’s start with mainstream journalists and elected Democrats.

I don't believe I said moderate Democrats were "begging" Oprah to run for office. Indeed, I specifically said I didn't think she should run (I think she'd lose). So that's a strawman. I'm simply pointing out that just because no one you know wants her to run, doesn't mean no one does.

And I never said Mueller wouldn't "deliver the goods"...so that's a strawman as well.

Finally, I'm not sure why you feel the need to throw shade my way in a conversation that I'm not even a part of.

 

[Irvine511]

I don't believe I said moderate Democrats were "begging" Oprah to run for office. Indeed, I specifically said I didn't think she should run (I think she'd lose). So that's a strawman. I'm simply pointing out that just because no one you know wants her to run, doesn't mean no one does.



And I never said Mueller wouldn't "deliver the goods"...so that's a strawman as well.



Finally, I'm not sure why you feel the need to throw shade my way in a conversation that I'm not even a part of.

We weren’t talking about you and Oprah, you’re right that this wasn’t a conversation about you.

Your strawmen tendencies are well established in here, and youve been called out frequently for your reporting on “the Resistance” you see online innovations Eder for you to make a point that no one in here disagrees with (like how no one in here wants Oprah to run for President). It is a little bit of shade thrown, you’re right. But the point has been made.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

progressive legislation requires winning elections. it wasn't long ago that NY had a Republican governor. a comparatively moderate one, but Manhattan and Brooklyn are not all of New York. i'm going to defend Cuomo based on his ability to win elections. there's also his legislation on same-sex marriage, gun control, and college tuition. i understand that we might want more, and we might want more now, but sometimes small steps must be taken at first.

if Cynthia Nixon proves herself a capable candidate and can unseat Andrew Cuomo and then win a statewide election, more power to her, and i will be happy about that because, yay, it's still a Democrat.

for now, it seems that the support her candidacy is receiving is because not only does she ride the subway but there are some people out there who don't like Andrew Cuomo (who is obviously looking at 2020). i'm fairly certain that these same people will like a Republican governor even less, but perhaps not? perhaps it would be more fun for Cynthia Nixon to run against a moderate Republican and lose?

there are people in here far more knowledgable about NY state politics than i, so i don't have too much more to offer than these cursory observations. so we'll wait and see. but the idea of always primarying from the Left seems like a great way to lose the suburban voters (the people who actually do vote, rather than the ones we keep wishing would) that 2018 and 2020 are going to be all about.

and when 2020 comes around, we're going to be told just what a progressive liberal Cuomo is in the minds of swing voters across the rust belt (which is what upstate NY often looks like). places like Elmira are as shattered as any town along the Ohio river.





another difference is that Oprah isn't running for anything.




you're doing the Nick strawman thing here -- "people i wish to differentiate myself from are saying certain things" -- no one i know wants Oprah to run for anything, pointing out that celebrity isn't a qualification for office.

i have no desire for an Oprah candidacy.

Trump won Suffolk County, one of the two suburban counties on Long Island just outside the city proper, but very much inside the metro area. He almost won Nassau, the county that borders Queens.

The majority of the state populations live in NYC, which is obviously very blue. But the rest of the state, as you've said, is very red. It's why candidates with crossover appeal often win. Go too far to the left and you'll lose the suburbs and rural areas, go too far to the right and you'll lose NYC.

I will say that these will not be ordinary elections - and I'd there were ever a time where someone further left than the normal NYS candidate could win, it's now.

But in normal years, the candidates that win are very much purple.

 

[DaveC]

i really don't understand what the big deal is with this stormy daniels thing other than the salaciousness of it.

sure it's a juicy gossipy story but where's the actual wrongdoing? she's a porn star but there's nothing illegal or inherently wrong about sleeping with a porn star. he didn't force himself on her in any way, she herself said repeatedly that even though she didn't really want to fuck him all that much that she still fully consented to it and doesn't consider herself a victim and doesn't want to be seen as one. maybe she has pictures or video of him, but who cares? does anyone really want to see that? unless he was doing something like hurting her or she was saying no and he's ignoring that (which she explicitly said was not the case), there's nothing illegal about that either. as long as capable and consenting adults are involved, even if one or more of those people is in a relationship that is truly nobody else's business outside of those people's. melania might be totally okay with him sleeping around and that's totally fine. if she's not, then that is gross and reprehensible, but also not illegal and 100% between the two of them to resolve within the context of their marriage.

the only real illegal acts here that are alleged to have been committed are by the lawyer trying and failing to bury the story, as far as i can tell. he may or may not have illegally used campaign funds but that sounds like it was done entirely by the lawyer and not at trump's direction and maybe not even to his knowledge at all - in any case the penalty for that is not going to be very big even if he is guilty of it. there may or may not have been a veiled threat made in a vegas parking lot but that's almost certainly impossible to prove. maybe she also broke an NDA, but that's about it.

i can't see how this leads to anything more than a minor charge for the lawyer and maybe the world is subjected to a video of donald trump getting spanked by a fake magazine cover. so to me this entire thing just seems like a whole lot of sizzle with little to no steak. am i wrong?

 

[iron yuppie]

The man openly boasted about being a sexual assailant and faced little to no consequence for it, so yeah, I don't think the Stormy stuff will amount to anything.

 

[DaveC]

i'm not suggesting that he should face consequences for the stormy daniels affair - in fact quite the opposite. unless he actually did something illegal or directed the lawyer to do something illegal, which by the accounts of everyone involved on all sides he did not, i'm failing to see how this is *anything* (aside from the possible illegal payment made by the lawyer), much less something he needs to answer for to anyone but melania.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I think the big question is where did the payments come from... i.e. did he use campaign funds to pay off his porn star mistress?

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

If you believe Stormy, and I do, someone was also involved in threatening her. When she had her child in her car in a parking lot. Someone associated with Trump, or Trump's lawyer. My guess is his lawyer was behind it. He sounds like a real pompous ass. It could have been someone associated with Trump's campaign too.

Stormy's lawyer is awesome. If I was ever in trouble I would want that guy in my corner.

 

[DaveC]

i'm familiar with the story as revealed thus far and read the transcript of the piece/interview from last night, and i absolutely believe she is telling the truth. i think it's quite revealing that he hasn't come out denying the story as fake news and publicly dragging her through the mud as his usual MO is - it suggests to me it probably happened and probably pretty close if not bang-on to how she's telling it.

but that's sort of my point - there's not much here for him to deny. having an affair isn't illegal. if he had paid her for the sex then mayyyyybe you could get him on solicitation, but nobody is suggesting that he tried to pay her (the hush money being a totally different thing). whether he lied or not about any of it is pretty irrelevant, considering he hasn't been under oath and he otherwise lies freely about everything all the time. there's the threat, but apparently it was a 10 second interaction with random shady man in an anonymous gym parking lot with nobody around. good luck finding out who that guy is, much less connecting him definitively to the campaign or trump himself.

i don't think this goes anywhere past the lawyer, tbh. it sounds to me like a bob loblaw thinking he's a saul goodman.

 

[anitram]

The best part is that he was cheating on Melania (freshly post partum) with Karen McDougal and cheating on Karen McDougal with Stormy Daniels (and who knows who else). None of which is at all surprising and pretty much perfectly summarizes the piece of shit that he is.

 

[Irvine511]

Generally, I’m enjoying watching him squirm. Campaign funds aside, I think part of the reason he isn’t addressing it is that being sexually submissive is really off-brand for the Hog Emperor of Rape Culture.

 

[DaveC]

The best part is that he was cheating on Melania (freshly post partum) with Karen McDougal and cheating on Karen McDougal with Stormy Daniels (and who knows who else). None of which is at all surprising and pretty much perfectly summarizes the piece of shit that he is.

right, he's obviously a piece of shit for myriad reasons - no argument on that here. what we don't know is what melania's opinion of all this was. i know a couple who, when they had a child, the wife was fine with the husband sleeping around a bit because she couldn't/didn't want to be sexual with him. without getting too specific, my girl and i have the type of relationship where in some cases other people can be involved in our sex lives without it being considered cheating or disloyalty. i mean, if i had to guess it certainly seems like that probably wasn't the case here, but we just don't know. if they had some kind of arrangement behind closed doors, and neither he nor ms daniels did anything illegal, then it's really nobody's business but theirs and casting judgement on this seems really moralistic in my book.

eta: i am talking about this particular story only and not any other allegations - obviously we know he is an admitted sexual predator. there are a million other reasons to despise the man, i'm just not too sure this particular instance should rank very high on the list.

 

[anitram]

I’m sure Melania checked out of that marriage a long time ago. She also always has that look on her face like she’s making it through the day with just the right dose of lorazepam or something similar.

 

[DaveC]

if i was her i'd be so zonked out all the time i wouldn't even notice four years passing.

 

[anitram]

if i was her i'd be so zonked out all the time i wouldn't even notice four years passing.

Amen.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I see the stormy daniels thing as the media fighting back with character assassination of Trump. Keep calling him out for the sleezebag he is.

 

[Diemen]

Character assassination seems the wrong term if they’re simply reporting what he’s done.

In other news, the Christianist evangelical right has decided that it’s perfectly okay that Trump is a lying, cheating, greedy and corrupt narcissist, because King David. Seriously.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Character assassination seems the wrong term if they’re simply reporting what he’s done.

In other news, the Christianist evangelical right has decided that it’s perfectly okay that Trump is a lying, cheating, greedy and corrupt narcissist, because King David. Seriously.

I suppose I have never bothered to look up the definition of "character assassination," but I assumed a literal meaning. Dunno why that definition is what it is, I always assumed you could assassinate bad people, too [emoji23]

I don't think they're simply reporting what he's done though. They're paying extra effort to make sure people know. It is calculated and aimed at him. But it is justified.

 

[PhilsFan]

progressive legislation requires winning elections. it wasn't long ago that NY had a Republican governor. a comparatively moderate one, but Manhattan and Brooklyn are not all of New York. i'm going to defend Cuomo based on his ability to win elections. there's also his legislation on same-sex marriage, gun control, and college tuition. i understand that we might want more, and we might want more now, but sometimes small steps must be taken at first.

if Cynthia Nixon proves herself a capable candidate and can unseat Andrew Cuomo and then win a statewide election, more power to her, and i will be happy about that because, yay, it's still a Democrat.

for now, it seems that the support her candidacy is receiving is because not only does she ride the subway but there are some people out there who don't like Andrew Cuomo (who is obviously looking at 2020). i'm fairly certain that these same people will like a Republican governor even less, but perhaps not? perhaps it would be more fun for Cynthia Nixon to run against a moderate Republican and lose?

there are people in here far more knowledgable about NY state politics than i, so i don't have too much more to offer than these cursory observations. so we'll wait and see. but the idea of always primarying from the Left seems like a great way to lose the suburban voters (the people who actually do vote, rather than the ones we keep wishing would) that 2018 and 2020 are going to be all about.

and when 2020 comes around, we're going to be told just what a progressive liberal Cuomo is in the minds of swing voters across the rust belt (which is what upstate NY often looks like). places like Elmira are as shattered as any town along the Ohio river.

I was told the suburbanites would vote for Clinton and not for Sanders, and that was why Clinton had to be the candidate. I was told by Chuck Schumer that Clinton would pick up two moderate Republican voters in suburban Philadelphia for every blue collar Democrat vote they'd lose in the rust belt.

Then they voted for Trump.

This whole "scoreboard" thing with the moderate part of the party is pretty fucking rich considering how many elections the moderate part of the party has botched. The notion that no one likes the leftist's policies except the leftists themselves is a self-fulfilling prophecy in a system built around who can get the most corporate donations. Imagine watching how the Democrats have flailed around for the last 20 years and doubling down on it!

By the way, I think you are waaaaaaaaay underselling how loathed Cuomo is in New York.

 

[Irvine511]

The recent special elections prove you wrong. 8 years of Clinton, 8 years of Obama, and popular vote victories by Gore and especially HR Clinton aren’t exactly “botched” elections. The winner of the popular vote from 1992 to 2016 was a Democrat in all but 4 years. In fact, it’s the success of the Democrats at the presidential level that caused the party to wither on the vine at the state level. I And the 2006 takeover was in no small part to the moderate/conservative Blue Dogs.

I’m all for running leftists where they can win. I’m not for running leftists to make a point. If we want to win at the state level then appropriate candidates must be selected for each district.

White women went 56% for Trump. That won’t happen again. They are the ones who must be won back.

 

[Popmartijn]

but that's sort of my point - there's not much here for him to deny. having an affair isn't illegal. if he had paid her for the sex then mayyyyybe you could get him on solicitation, but nobody is suggesting that he tried to pay her (the hush money being a totally different thing). whether he lied or not about any of it is pretty irrelevant, considering he hasn't been under oath and he otherwise lies freely about everything all the time. there's the threat, but apparently it was a 10 second interaction with random shady man in an anonymous gym parking lot with nobody around. good luck finding out who that guy is, much less connecting him definitively to the campaign or trump himself.

i don't think this goes anywhere past the lawyer, tbh. it sounds to me like a bob loblaw thinking he's a saul goodman.

The major issue here isn't the cheating story, it's the cover-up. Illegally using campaign funds to pay her off. And apparently, this was done in name of the Trump Organization, so it's more than just a lawyer being dumb and acting on its own. This will not make Trump criminally responsible (but apparently will make the lawyer so), but it is yet another worry for him.
And oh, a person who might face time in prison (and maybe also disbarment) who might also know of Trump's dealings with Russions. There might be someone also interested in this person...

 

[mama cass]

In other news, the Christianist evangelical right has decided that it’s perfectly okay that Trump is a lying, cheating, greedy and corrupt narcissist, because King David. Seriously.

omg

although one evangelical once told me he was like "Balaam's ass" - jeesus i really needed that laugh

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I was told the suburbanites would vote for Clinton and not for Sanders, and that was why Clinton had to be the candidate. I was told by Chuck Schumer that Clinton would pick up two moderate Republican voters in suburban Philadelphia for every blue collar Democrat vote they'd lose in the rust belt.

Then they voted for Trump.

This whole "scoreboard" thing with the moderate part of the party is pretty fucking rich considering how many elections the moderate part of the party has botched. The notion that no one likes the leftist's policies except the leftists themselves is a self-fulfilling prophecy in a system built around who can get the most corporate donations. Imagine watching how the Democrats have flailed around for the last 20 years and doubling down on it!

By the way, I think you are waaaaaaaaay underselling how loathed Cuomo is in New York.

You're also waaaaaaaay overselling how much he's loathed.

His approval ratings at 47% despite ongoing corruption issues in the state house. Before that he was historically in the 60s and even 70s.

That's not exactly a guy who's "loathed"

You're also making a huge mistake regarding the feelings about NY on the left. While, yes, it's a liberal stronghold... NYC is also a city that prior to this past administration elected a republican or independent pretending to be republican for about 20 years straight.

Your general thoughts might be right, but applying it to NYC as if it's like other left leaning areas would be a miscalculation.

Many of those loyal Democrats also work for Goldman.

 

[Nick66]

As much as it may hurt his reputation here for me to say it, I more or less tend to agree with DaveC's take on Stormy Daniels.

For me there's never been a question as to whether it's true or not...her story rang true to me the minute I heard it and it's completely consistent with Trump's behaviour. As to the question of the affair, I believe her...I don't think that's either an issue or much of a surprise. Of course it's true, of course they paid her off, of course he's lying about it. And I don't think it's a big deal, relatively speaking. I didn't care about Clinton's affairs, and I really don't care about Trumps.

The issue of the pay off is a legitimate one, but that's not what's driving this story in most of the press and on social media. It' s obviously the salacious bits most of the public are interested in. Without the sleazy angle, I don't think the "pay off" story would be dominating the headlines and Anderson Cooper would be obsessed with it. 60 Minutes didn't get record ratings over a story about a pay off. Lets put it this way...if Trump's lawyer had paid an ex-cook at one of Trump's Hotels 120K to keep quiet about the fact that the eggs were billed as free range when in fact they came from caged hens, not many people outside of some legal circles and the Resistance would care.

Finally, with regards to the "threat". The whole "nice baby you've got there" all sounds a little bit Hollywood to me. I'm not saying it didn't happen, it may have, but since there's really no way to know, or even who made the threat if it did happen, I really don't know what to make of it.

I just don't care about Trump's sex life, and don't really care to know about it. It's another way for Trump's enemies and the press to attack him (and his evangelical supporters) and that's fine, he's certainly a creep and a sleaze. We knew that. But unless t it comes to light that there is a criminal violation on Trump's part with regards to the pay off (and that would change the equation dramatically...see John Edwards ) it's mostly just a gossipy sex story for now. She's not a hero or a whistleblower...she's a porn star who had a transactional affair with someone famous and is now wanting to cash in on it. Maybe it will lead to a lawsuit where Trump is deposed, and I guess that could potentially cause him some problems down the line.

There are very few people who haven't made up their mind about Trump, and I doubt this is going to change things.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

The best part is that he was cheating on Melania (freshly post partum) with Karen McDougal and cheating on Karen McDougal with Stormy Daniels (and who knows who else). None of which is at all surprising and pretty much perfectly summarizes the piece of shit that he is.

I read that Vanity Fair article, whichever one it was...there was probably more than one. He told her she could have a baby (ha permission) only if she got her body right back into shape. She suffered from morning sickness and he told her to basically stop complaining-that she was the one who wanted a child. All allegedly of course.

He has said women are useless after 35. Has he ever looked in a mirror? Just wondering.

I do find it to be extremely creepy that he tells these women he's involved with sexually that they remind him of Ivanka. Add that to the sexual/looks comments he has made about her. Interesting to analyze. And cringeworthy.

 

[Nick66]

This whole "scoreboard" thing with the moderate part of the party is pretty fucking rich considering how many elections the moderate part of the party has botched. The notion that no one likes the leftist's policies except the leftists themselves is a self-fulfilling prophecy in a system built around who can get the most corporate donations. Imagine watching how the Democrats have flailed around for the last 20 years and doubling down on it!

I usually don't agree with what you write in terms of politics, but I appreciate your posts. I think most people here would describe themselves as center left, and it's nice to have another perspective, and as far as I know you're always civil.

 

[dabiggestu2fan]

I’ve got nothing useful or valuable to add to this discussion except that I hope trump doesn’t start wwiii before July 1 when I get keys to my very first home that I’ve purchased! Lol. If I can enjoy it for at least a few months before shit hits the fan that would be all I ask haha