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Old 11-30-2017, 09:36 AM   #781
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I don't think Clinton being elected would have changed what North Korea is doing one bit. They've been playing this game for 20+ years, with a Republican and two Democratic governments. Clinton certainly wouldn't be posturing like Trump (well, at least in the same way as Trump), but North Korea wants those weapons, it doesn't matter who is in power.
Trump is accelerating their programme. They wouldn't have debuted the Hwasong 15 this year and they also wouldn't have threatened the "Juche Bird" Pacific Air burst test if Trump hadn't had made his "totally destroy" speech. As KJU said, he now feels more than ever the need for their nuclear programme after Trumps UN speech. Of course Trump is at it again today with his "little rocket man" nonsense. He'll only learn when there's multiple ICBMs heading to the US and the missile defences have little chance of shooting them down and if they did they'd drop over Russia!
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Old 11-30-2017, 09:41 AM   #782
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Trump is accelerating their programme. They wouldn't have debuted the Hwasong 15 this year and they also wouldn't have threatened the "Juche Bird" Pacific Air burst test if Trump hadn't had made his "totally destroy" speech.
Oh rubbish. You have no idea what would have happened, or not happend. For all you know if HRC won we'd be in a shooting war with NK right now. There are just too many variables. Chaos theory and all that. This is like the "9/11 wouldn't have happened if Gore won" or "Bush wouldn't have abandoned Benghazi" nonsense speculation.
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Old 11-30-2017, 11:33 AM   #783
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North Korea has been developing the program for decades. It is still not capable of nuking Mar A Lago (sorry TheFox that bomb shelter can keep storing your canned goods for now), but they continue inching closer. They would have done this regardless of who won the election. They've continued development through presidents of both parties. Why would it have stopped now?

The concern over Trump is not that "oh my god North Korea can nuke us now," rather "oh my god now we have two loonies and this may escalate into a situation where hundreds of thousands South Koreans die."
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Old 11-30-2017, 12:35 PM   #784
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North Korea has been developing the program for decades. It is still not capable of nuking Mar A Lago (sorry TheFox that bomb shelter can keep storing your canned goods for now), but they continue inching closer. They would have done this regardless of who won the election. They've continued development through presidents of both parties. Why would it have stopped now?

The concern over Trump is not that "oh my god North Korea can nuke us now," rather "oh my god now we have two loonies and this may escalate into a situation where hundreds of thousands South Koreans die."
Why can't NK hit Mar a Lago yet? https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/stat...24704289038337

Thats is head in the sand stuff. I do agree with you that the real danger is 2 crazy people but to deny that NK can't hit the US or Washington is probably false. I'm not saying we're all going to die or that nuclear war is imminent but there's a real danger that if Trump or KJU don't back down or stop the crazy, then a nuclear confrontation is on the cards. Anyway, I don't live in the US so I wouldn't die in a first strike.
Trump has to switch from maximum pressure and denuclearisation to deterrence now. The sanctions and crazy Tweets aren't working.
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Old 11-30-2017, 12:37 PM   #785
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I wasn't saying this isn't a big deal at all. And I agree about the big loonie thing.

But, I was saying that behind the loonies, you have warmongerers who make a big deal out of a giant tin can filled with rocket fuel (you want it to launch higher? Make the last one a bit bigger, that's pretty much it). On top of that, you have a sensational media milking the fear of misunderstanding. Lots of countries do or could have this range within months. What they don't have is executable nuclear warheads, re-entry systems, guidance systems, avoidance systems, sophisticated nuclear arms mass reduction, etc. etc. basically, modern technology.

There's a reason their rocket looks like and succeeds/fails like a 1960's Titan rocket. It basically
is one.
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Old 11-30-2017, 12:51 PM   #786
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Now Trump's getting rid of Tillerson. Didn't he allegedly call Trump a moron? The truth teller always suffers...😯
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Old 11-30-2017, 01:06 PM   #787
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I don't believe in throwing out references to dementia without any proof given. And that is his medical privacy. I think that issue came up about Reagan, if he did have dementia in office and it was not disclosed. Mentally unstable does not mean dementia either. Narcissism is a mental disorder that can make you mentally unstable.

http://people.com/politics/joe-scarb...able-dementia/
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Old 11-30-2017, 01:29 PM   #788
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Why can't NK hit Mar a Lago yet? https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/stat...24704289038337

Thats is head in the sand stuff. I do agree with you that the real danger is 2 crazy people but to deny that NK can't hit the US or Washington is probably false. I'm not saying we're all going to die or that nuclear war is imminent but there's a real danger that if Trump or KJU don't back down or stop the crazy, then a nuclear confrontation is on the cards. Anyway, I don't live in the US so I wouldn't die in a first strike.
Trump has to switch from maximum pressure and denuclearisation to deterrence now. The sanctions and crazy Tweets aren't working.
It's not head in the sand stuff. Because...

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What they don't have is executable nuclear warheads, re-entry systems, guidance systems, avoidance systems, sophisticated nuclear arms mass reduction, etc. etc. basically, modern technology.

There's a reason their rocket looks like and succeeds/fails like a 1960's Titan rocket. It basically is one.
... the fuckers still haven't proven they can actually put a nuke in this thing and actually have it reenter the atmosphere and hit a target.

That's kinda a big part that's missing.

They're continuing to work towards it, yea. But they aren't there yet.

North Korea, today, CAN NOT nuke the US mainland. Period.

But they're getting closer.
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Old 11-30-2017, 01:43 PM   #789
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Lol, at least he's good for a laugh once in a while

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.8080f08ab683
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Old 11-30-2017, 01:45 PM   #790
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Interesting tidbit... with rockets, military aircraft, etc., typically the guidance software is the only always-classified piece of technology. (Perhaps not "only," but the point is that that's what allows for them to be the world's best).
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Old 11-30-2017, 02:14 PM   #791
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It's not head in the sand stuff. Because...



... the fuckers still haven't proven they can actually put a nuke in this thing and actually have it reenter the atmosphere and hit a target.

That's kinda a big part that's missing.

They're continuing to work towards it, yea. But they aren't there yet.

North Korea, today, CAN NOT nuke the US mainland. Period.

But they're getting closer.
Can you guarantee they dont have an RV? It's certainly not worth the risk of a preemptive attack. In any case, if they don't they'll achieve that probably next year and they may prove it with a Juche Bird.
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Old 11-30-2017, 02:15 PM   #792
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Can you guarantee they dont have an RV? It's certainly not worth the risk of a preemptive attack. In any case, if they don't they'll achieve that probably next year and they may prove it with a Juche Bird.
Can you guarantee I don't?
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Old 11-30-2017, 03:19 PM   #793
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If the tax bill passes, this will surely be the death of the GOP
the GOP can only win control of congress with the support of some independents

the Senate has two independents, if they cannot even get one, that only 50%
how can they expect to maintain their slim majorities ?????
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Old 11-30-2017, 03:25 PM   #794
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how can they expect to maintain their slim majorities ?????


By doing whatever they can to undermine free and fair elections — gutting net neutrality, false voter “fraud” comissions, demonizing the press, voter ID “laws,” etc. basically doing whatever it can to make sure that only older white men are voting.
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Old 11-30-2017, 03:31 PM   #795
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If the tax bill passes, this will surely be the death of the GOP
the GOP can only win control of congress with the support of some independents
Not really. Democrats say this about every GOP tax bill. Every single one. it will destroy the middle class, help the rich and it will be kaput for the Republicans. They were saying the same things about the Reagan tax reforms, then the Bush Jr. tax cuts. Now, you can make the argument that GOP tax policy has hurt the economy, but they haven't exactly paid a big price electorally for it in the past.

The Republicans know what they're doing. The tax bill will give an immediate tax reduction to most Americans, and probably results in some sort of economic stimulus, however short term. The economy is already ticking along and will most likely continue to over the next year at least. In seven years or whatever period it is that the middle-class tax cuts are set to expire, who is going to vote against continuing them? Democrats? Remember, President Obama extended the Bush tax cuts. They were designed to make them difficult to get rid of. There's a reason Republicans REALLY want this to pass and Democrats really want it to fail.

As far as the national debt goes, most voters don't really care about that. It didn't stop Obama winning two terms and he added trillions to the national debt.

And there really aren't a whole lot of independents out there. Winning these days is mostly about parties exciting and turning out their base. Especially in midterms.
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Old 11-30-2017, 03:40 PM   #796
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By doing whatever they can to undermine free and fair elections — gutting net neutrality, false voter “fraud” comissions, demonizing the press, voter ID “laws,” etc. basically doing whatever it can to make sure that only older white men are voting.
you forgot gerrymandering
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Old 11-30-2017, 03:49 PM   #797
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Not really. Democrats say this about every GOP tax bill. Every single one. it will destroy the middle class, help the rich and it will be kaput for the Republicans. They were saying the same things about the Reagan tax reforms, then the Bush Jr. tax cuts. Now, you can make the argument that GOP tax policy has hurt the economy, but they haven't exactly paid a big price electorally for it in the past.

The Republicans know what they're doing. The tax bill will give an immediate tax reduction to most Americans, and probably results in some sort of economic stimulus, however short term. The economy is already ticking along and will most likely continue to over the next year at least. In seven years or whatever period it is that the middle-class tax cuts are set to expire, who is going to vote against continuing them? Democrats? Remember, President Obama extended the Bush tax cuts. They were designed to make them difficult to get rid of. There's a reason Republicans REALLY want this to pass and Democrats really want it to fail.

As far as the national debt goes, most voters don't really care about that. It didn't stop Obama winning two terms and he added trillions to the national debt.
Appreciate your analysis, Nick
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Old 11-30-2017, 04:05 PM   #798
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I would say a lot of fiscally conservative voters *love* to talk about the national debt.

Tons of people love to equate national debt like personal debt. As though a responsible country operates on a surplus. This couldn't be further from the truth. A surplus indicates room for growth was not capitalized on.

What's very frustrating is when someone discusses or sensationalizes the *size* of the debt. "President -so and so- TRIPLED the debt." Population does not behave statically or linearly. The same applies to inflation. And as the size of the actual economy grows, the volume of money grows. Of course, these three things are all intertwined. But the point is, 2017 magnitude of debt isn't comparable to 2007 magnitude of debt, and sure as hell isn't comparable to anything decades behind that.

As for this recent tax plan, I haven't read much about did. Did I hear Donnie Orange calling estate tax evil and damaging to many middle class Americans, though? Is eliminating the estate tax actually a thing on this tax plan?
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Old 11-30-2017, 04:10 PM   #799
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The issue is that nobody seems to actually care about debt or deficits anymore. The left never much did and the right pretends to but doesn't mind blowing up the size of the deficit (and resultant debt) if it suits their needs to give out tax cuts, usually.

It is basic (good) economics that in good economic times, you should aggressively be paying down the debt so that when the inevitable downturn and a recession roll around you aren't digging yourself deeper in the hole. But that seems to have been basically abandoned by US federal politicians as a whole.
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Old 11-30-2017, 05:46 PM   #800
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By doing whatever they can to undermine free and fair elections — gutting net neutrality, false voter “fraud” comissions, demonizing the press, voter ID “laws,” etc. basically doing whatever it can to make sure that only older white men are voting.
Some of this stuff can impact elections on the margins, but there's not a lot of evidence any of these things have really changed the outcome of many races.

The first two things you mentioned may end up impacting "free and fair elections" in the future, obviously those would be new developments and haven't had the chance to impact any election yet. I'm not sure how "demonising the press" would prevent a free and fair election...that's a standard tactic the GOP has been doing (and in some cases Democrats, especially the Clintons) for decades. And in any event such behaviour is clearly protected by the first amendment, and always will be.

As for voter ID laws, yes they can be discriminatory, and there's not a lot evidence that voter fraud really impacts elections, but despite the hype there's also no conclusive evidence that they have any great impact on elections either. For example, Clinton's claim that voter ID laws cost her Wisconsin are almost certainly not true. Similar flawed methodology makes up most of the claims you see on Facebook and Twitter that voter ID laws are swinging a lot of elections.

With regards to gerrymandering...all that gerrymandering that went on after 2010 has almost certainly enabled the GOP to hold onto more seats and put them in an electoral advantage, but gerrymandering only explains so much. Let's remember that a large number of the GOP gains in legislative races over the past decade came in 2010, before their gerrymandering came into effecting. In other words, Republicans won big in 2010 under the exact same district lines that allowed the Dems to win big in 2006. After the 2010 elections (and before redistricting) Republicans controlled 242 seats in the Congress vs. 193 for Democrats….essentially where it is today, after the 2010 redistricting. And of course gerrymandering doesn't factor at all into the many state wide races the GOP has won over the past decade.

I understand the temptation for Democrats to blame their losses on stuff like this, it's easier than diagnosing the real problems the party has. But blaming all their woes on voter ID and gerrymandering isn't going to win them much of anything. Obviously, Republicans have their own deep, deep problems as a party as well, but so far those problems haven't prevented them from winning that much (two terms of Obama excepted). Things like having good candidates, a deep bench, and a coherent message still account for the bulk of the reasons elections are won and lost. And the other variables, like the out of power party doing well in off year elections, explain poll results more reliably than things like voter fraud & suppression.

Finally, with regards to the GOP only wanting 'older white men' to vote, I'm not sure that's true. Republicans usually win among white women and middle aged men as well, and enough of younger white men...and certainly could not win without those groups. Just as Democrats could not win without the votes of their key demographics.
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