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Old 09-07-2017, 12:20 PM   #501
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Is this the entire article? I don't see where he addresses what would happen to the poor countries if suddenly everyone looking for work up and left...

Also , aren't there over 7 billion people who could dramatically improve their economic situation by moving to either North America or Western Europe? How is this plan scalable? And what about the impact of the nations suddenly being flooded with cheap labor? Once the word got out, the people would arrive (already destitute) before they found the job...creating a tremendous tax burden on those citizens to pay for the care for those that will replace them at their job...
maybe you should try reading the article with some care first before automatically going off into contrarian mode?
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Old 09-07-2017, 01:24 PM   #502
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maybe you should try reading the article with some care first before automatically going off into contrarian mode?
I've read it several times now, and those concerns are not addressed in a reasonable manner - if it all. And there is also an assumption that these wages would still be "high" even after completely flooding the marker with labor. If we can find someone in the entire planet to fold sheets for 20 cents and hour, I'm certain we can find someone to do it for 19,18,17...

And how would these new labor-only immigrants buy anything in these countries with their pennies? They won't even have enough pennies to ship the pennies they earned back home.

The article really does not address the basic principle of supply and demand) ...it just assumes there is an over-abundance of demand...and with a little "creative thinking" we can make it all work out. Well, with just a little "creative thinking" we can solve all the world problems...
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Old 09-07-2017, 03:53 PM   #503
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Way too long to post here, but an excellent piece:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...m_source=atltw
Oh, man, so much worth quoting here I wouldn't even know where to begin. I'll just highlight these few bits, though:

Quote:
Barack Obama delivered to black people the hoary message that if they work twice as hard as white people, anything is possible. But Trump’s counter is persuasive: Work half as hard as black people, and even more is possible.
Quoted just for its truth.

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Asserting that Trump’s rise was primarily powered by cultural resentment and economic reversal has become de rigueur among white pundits and thought leaders. But evidence for this is, at best, mixed. In a study of preelection polling data, the Gallup researchers Jonathan Rothwell and Pablo Diego-Rosell found that “people living in areas with diminished economic opportunity” were “somewhat more likely to support Trump.” But the researchers also found that voters in their study who supported Trump generally had a higher mean household income ($81,898) than those who did not ($77,046). Those who approved of Trump were “less likely to be unemployed and less likely to be employed part-time” than those who did not. They also tended to be from areas that were very white: “The racial and ethnic isolation of whites at the zip code level is one of the strongest predictors of Trump support.”
Yes, yes, yes, this. These sorts of facts NEED to be highlighted more and more often, because I completely agree that that narrative is deeply flawed. That data certainly bears out with the way my family voted versus the way my conservative relatives voted, and our respective economic levels.

There's also the fact that my relatives, who are Trump supporters, are the sort who will throw out suggestions of how my family can handle this or that financial problem, and my mom has to explain to them why their suggestions just aren't as feasible an option for us as it is for them. And with the way my relatives talk about and look down upon people who get government aid, they're insulting my family, who's had to rely on government aid in the past, in the process, even if they don't realize it. So forget the "working class versus liberal elites" narrative, let's talk about the "working class versus those financially secure Trump supporters" narrative.

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Certainly not every Trump voter is a white supremacist, just as not every white person in the Jim Crow South was a white supremacist. But every Trump voter felt it acceptable to hand the fate of the country over to one.
Bingo. I really want to hear a Trump supporter justify and explain why they saw nothing wrong with following Obama with a man who spent years trying to discredit his place of birth. Why did they think that was even remotely okay?

(And in regards to the "not all Trump supporters!" attitude, I'll refer back to my relatives and say outright that yes, they are bigoted. They definitely voted for Trump in large part because they agreed with what he said about various groups of people. I guarantee that.)

I also liked the article's deep exploration of the history "white slavery" in comparison to black slavery, and how Trump can get away with saying and doing things that, if Obama said or did them, would end his presidency so fast your head would spin. That photo of all the old white men applauding Trump's winning the electoral college speaks volumes. Thanks for sharing that link.

VincentVega, thanks for your excellent and detailed post as well. Another example of the proper, detailed analysis and exploration of these topics we should be seeing and hearing more often in the news and elsewhere (I particularly appreciated your breakdown of how different parts of Europe are dealing and have dealt with these issues, as a reminder that Europe isn't some big monolith). This section was especially powerful:

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Originally Posted by Vincent Vega View Post
Of the 65 million refugees, 48 million are internally displaced persons (technically, they don’t even count as refugees). There are more Syrians displaced inside Syria, than there are exiles. Further, 97% of refugees are not getting any further than the neighbouring countries. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq is hosting 250,000 Syrian refugees, and more than one million Iraqis (these are IDPs). The population of Kurdistan is estimated at 5.5 million. The population of Lebanon grew by 25%. All of them Syrian refugees. Turkey and Jordan also host millions of Syrians. Kenya, Iran and Pakistan are completing the top five of host nations to refugees. Refugees are fleeing the Assad regime (ISIS is not as large a factor). Lebanon is factually controlled by Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a large factor in why Assad is still in power. It’s short of a miracle the refugees in Lebanon are still living in relative safety. Nonetheless, there is no shortage of stories of violence, intimidation and abuse of refugees. If you are openly anti-Assad, you can’t stay in the country.

The refugees are living in camps, in the streets, or in unfinished buildings. Only if they are lucky can they afford proper apartments. I’ve been in plastic tents in 50°C heat (122°F). Families of up to 15 are living in there, from toddlers to elderlies, all crammed together. Kids were playing pool billiard in one of these tents. I could barely stand it a minute in there, they are living in it. During winter, it gets muddy and freezing. Nonetheless, only a tiny fraction of these people are even thinking of going to Europe.

Those who do make it outside, are going voluntarily. At least in the sense that no one is putting a gun to their head (anymore). They are not being forced to come to Europe. They are attempting the journey, knowing that they will face police and border guards who are pushing them back (which is illegal), beating them, insulting them, and robbing them. Knowing that they will have to pay their life savings to a smuggler who will put them on a rubber boat to navigate waters this boat is not made for. Having imprinted on their minds the image of Aylan, yet seeing no other way than putting their own children in such a boat.

I would also not suggest it to anyone, but it’s not like they need my advice. The people who are attempting to come to Europe either are so unbelievably desperate that any “clashes” with a different culture cannot possible be imagined to be worse than what they are enduring, or the differences are not as stark to begin with. Despite all, exile is tough. Treating a traumatised person in the country of their origin is a challenge. Treating a traumatised person who on top of that is living in exile is a double-challenge. But despite all this, it is them who are adapting. It is not us.
Again, this needs to be highlighted more in the public discourse. Be it immigrants or refugees, we need to hear their voices more often. We need to stop letting the "They're going to come and mooch off you/kill you/assault your women!" boogeyman crowd dominate the conversation. We need to be reminded of the struggles these people are dealing with, and the dangers they face and work to overcome, as well as the hard work they put into trying to rebuild their lives and settle into whatever new place they come to, and hear their suggestions of what would be the best ways to help them.

(And that's another thing that always baffles me about the "pay attention to the white working class, they've been feeling ignored" mantra. Why do people seem to think it has to be one or the other? Why can't we care about taking care of and helping immigrants AND refugees AND black people AND Hispanics AND LGBT people AND white people AND rich AND poor and so on and so forth all at the same time? Not to say we should ignore the inherent issues that affect each group of people specifically, mind, 'cause we absolutely shouldn't, but I just don't get why people think you can only take care of one problem or one group of people at a time.)
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Old 09-08-2017, 01:08 AM   #504
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Washington Post, August 24th, 2017 "His remarks, which indicated more troops for Afghanistan, came down like a ton of bricks on Pakistan’s continued patronage of terrorist groups. The speech was a lucid — and long-overdue — recognition: The United States’ 16-year war in Afghanistan has been floundering partly due to Pakistan’s dualism on terrorism, as well as Washington’s dualism on Pakistan."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.41b89b3f1c87
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Old 09-08-2017, 01:29 AM   #505
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Sometimes, you have to give credit where credit is due. Since Trump has become president, the economy has certainly improved and is trending in the right direction...

Quote:
CNN: Money, August 8, 2017

Three months ago, CNNMoney examined six barometers of the economy to gauge how America was doing under President Trump. It's time to take another look under the hood.

The good news for Trump is that many parts of the economy are still humming. Trump is taking credit particularly for strong job growth and record high stock prices. The housing market is another bright spot. And the trade deficit has narrowed.

Here's a more detailed look at the economy, 200 days into the Trump presidency.

1. Jobs
It's hard to find fault with the latest jobs numbers. The unemployment rate is 4.3%, a 16-year low. The economy has added more than 1 million jobs since Trump took office.

On the other hand, wage growth has yet to really pick up. Employers still don't feel pressure to offer big salaries to attract the workers they need. Average hourly earnings have increased only 2.5% over the past 12 months. The Federal Reserve would rather see 3% to 3.5%. Still, because inflation is low, those wage gains are helping many Americans.

2. Housing prices
They're red hot.

The average price for an existing home in June was a record $263,800, or 6.5% higher than a year ago. June was the 64th consecutive month of gains compared with a year earlier.

And borrowing money to buy a house remains relatively affordable, despite recent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage is just 3.93%, according to Freddie Mac, down from 4.02% three months ago.

3. Lending

Consumers aren't borrowing just to buy homes. They're taking on debt for cars and using credit cards for lots of other things. Americans had $3.843 trillion in loans outstanding in May, up from $3.766 trillion at the end of last year, according to the Fed. And businesses are borrowing more, reversing a trend from earlier this year. That could be a good sign for Trump and the economy. Consumers can't prop up the economy alone: Companies need to pull their weight and invest.

4. Consumer spending
Big stores including Macy's (M), Kohl's (KSS) and J.C. Penney (JCP) report earnings this week, and the results could be lousy.

The dominance of Amazon (AMZN, Tech30) is one reason. But Americans may also be spending less on clothes, toys and other smaller purchases -- even though they're taking out more loans.
Retail sales fell 0.2% in June. Economists were expecting a slight increase. And overall consumer spending was up just 0.1% in June.

Spending has increased 2.8% over the past 12 months, a bit below the 3% pace many experts feel is necessary to keep the economy on track.

5. Trade

Trump wants more consumers -- in the United States and around the globe -- to buy American. And it looks like that's starting to happen.

The trade deficit fell slightly in June from three months ago, to $43.6 billion. That's the lowest since just before the election. America's suddenly vibrant oil industry is a big reason the balance is shifting. Thanks to technologies like fracking, the United States exported more crude in June and imported less.

Exports to Canada and Mexico rose in June, too, a possible sign that Trump's tough talk is working with America's two big North American trading partners.

China is still a sore spot. The U.S. trade deficit with China is up more than 6% this year.

6. Stocks
An undeniable win for the president. Fears of a market collapse under Trump have proved to be misguided. The Dow keeps hitting records and is up 12% this year. And the blue chips are lagging. The Nasdaq has surged nearly 20% thanks to big gains in Amazon, Apple (AAPL, Tech30), Google owner Alphabet (GOOGL, Tech30) and Facebook (FB, Tech30). For now, Wall Street is willing to ignore the turmoil in the Trump administration. Investors are hoping for eventual changes to the tax code and deregulation of the financial industry.

Strong earnings don't hurt, either. Profits for the companies in the S&P 500 are up more than 10% from a year ago.
Trump economy: These charts show how it's really doing - Aug. 7, 2017
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Old 09-08-2017, 02:19 AM   #506
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Sometimes, you have to give credit where credit is due. Since Trump has become president, the economy has certainly improved and is trending in the right direction...



Trump economy: These charts show how it's really doing - Aug. 7, 2017
Yeah I wish both sides (all sides?) of political debates were much quicker to acknowledge and give credit to the 'other side' when they can.

I think Trump's given a rhetoric if being a backer of business, and employers probably feel he's got their back. His priority is the optics of jobs and trade, more than morality and climate.
And that gives confidence to employers.

So yeah, my pea-brain thinks he can probably take some credit for those job figures.

Whether the bigger picture is right or wrong is a different question, I know.
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Old 09-08-2017, 02:57 AM   #507
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Yeah I wish both sides (all sides?) of political debates were much quicker to acknowledge and give credit to the 'other side' when they can.

I think Trump's given a rhetoric if being a backer of business, and employers probably feel he's got their back. His priority is the optics of jobs and trade, more than morality and climate.
And that gives confidence to employers.

So yeah, my pea-brain thinks he can probably take some credit for those job figures.

Whether the bigger picture is right or wrong is a different question, I know.
For the record, I agree with you on U2's new single. I really like it too, and I have not liked an opening single this much since Beautiful Day.


Anyway...

What we have to remember, is that almost half this country can back someone like Trump (a person I'm basically neutral about. He has some skills. He has some personal issues. But he is right about a few things..and there is no way on earth I would back Hillary)

I personally think household economics are always the number one issue. If 1920's Germany was working and fed and prosperous - there would have been no Hitler. If the Rust Belt US citizens were treated with half the dignity (and half the entitlements) that we offer illegal immigrants, then Trump would not be President.

As someone said here, Trump is the symptom - not the disease.

And before you judge these people too harshly, remember - it is difficult to think "globally" when you're a father/mother of three and get laid off because the factory moved south of the border...and then try to find ANY work, even odd, handyman-type jobs just to keep the kids fed, and can't because of the illegal immigrants that came from...south of the border. How open do you think you would be about white privilege when you're being evicted from your home, your car towed away, and your kids are surviving off bread and peanut butter?

The Rust Belt has a legitimate grievance. Michael Moore's "Roger and Me" is the perfect (though he would never admit it) prediction of what was to come...and it came. They are betting on Trump and the chance to get back on track...instead of voting for certain failure by electing the establishment (Republican or Democrat...these are tradition Union Democrats that are now lost to the Democrats)

However told Trump to do those last minute rallies in the Rust Belt was a genius...those few thousand votes were the difference....
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Old 09-08-2017, 03:41 AM   #508
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I think Chris Matthews of MSNBC sums up my views on Trump and his election perfectly:

Quote:
Chris Matthews, a host on MSNBC, said in September: “A lot of this support for Trump, with all his flaws which he displays regularly, is about the country – patriotic feelings people have, they feel like the country has been let down. Our elite leaders on issues like immigration, they don’t regulate any immigration it seems. They don’t regulate trade to our advantage, to the working man or working woman’s advantage. They take us into stupid wars. Their kids don’t fight but our kids do.

“It’s patriotic. They believe in their country. .... [There is a] deep sense that the country is being taken away and betrayed. I think that is so deep with people that they’re looking at a guy who’s flawed as hell like Trump and at least it’s a way of saying I am really angry about the way the elite has treated my country. And it’s so deep that it overwhelms all the bad stuff from Trump. It’s that strong. It’s a strong force wind.”
source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...p-win-analysis
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Old 09-08-2017, 04:07 AM   #509
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See I understand these arguments. I truly do. I live in what is, to some degree, the rust belt of NZ. Small city that used to be big but the government outsourced railway manufactur to china and that killed our local (and NZ's only) train factory. Etc etc.
People here express betrayal and hurt towards the government in a different way than I experienced in the big city (Auckland) I grew up in. It's a more inward view but like you said, parents have one priority above all - their kids.

But then for me, coming from a much more liberal country, Trump's moral issues are insurmountable.
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Old 09-08-2017, 06:23 AM   #510
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Originally Posted by AEON View Post
For the record, I agree with you on U2's new single. I really like it too, and I have not liked an opening single this much since Beautiful Day.


Anyway...

What we have to remember, is that almost half this country can back someone like Trump (a person I'm basically neutral about. He has some skills. He has some personal issues. But he is right about a few things..and there is no way on earth I would back Hillary)

I personally think household economics are always the number one issue. If 1920's Germany was working and fed and prosperous - there would have been no Hitler. If the Rust Belt US citizens were treated with half the dignity (and half the entitlements) that we offer illegal immigrants, then Trump would not be President.

As someone said here, Trump is the symptom - not the disease.

And before you judge these people too harshly, remember - it is difficult to think "globally" when you're a father/mother of three and get laid off because the factory moved south of the border...and then try to find ANY work, even odd, handyman-type jobs just to keep the kids fed, and can't because of the illegal immigrants that came from...south of the border. How open do you think you would be about white privilege when you're being evicted from your home, your car towed away, and your kids are surviving off bread and peanut butter?

The Rust Belt has a legitimate grievance. Michael Moore's "Roger and Me" is the perfect (though he would never admit it) prediction of what was to come...and it came. They are betting on Trump and the chance to get back on track...instead of voting for certain failure by electing the establishment (Republican or Democrat...these are tradition Union Democrats that are now lost to the Democrats)

However told Trump to do those last minute rallies in the Rust Belt was a genius...those few thousand votes were the difference....


Thank you for this post. It's honest. This is the type of post many of us have been asking for...

So what entitlements was this country offering illegal immigrants that we weren't offering the rust belt?
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Old 09-08-2017, 08:40 AM   #511
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US Politics III

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Originally Posted by AEON View Post
Sometimes, you have to give credit where credit is due. Since Trump has become president, the economy has certainly improved and is trending in the right direction...



Trump economy: These charts show how it's really doing - Aug. 7, 2017


Those unemployment numbers that Candidate Trump said were totally fake under Obama and nearly half the real unemployment rate are suddenly totally acceptable to President Trump, even though nothing has changed about how they're reported.

Also, job growth is pretty much the same as it was under Obama, who apparently was doing terrible at job growth according to Republicans at the time.

Hmm, what's the difference?
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Old 09-08-2017, 08:41 AM   #512
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Sometimes, you have to give credit where credit is due.
Did you give that same credit to President Obama, who brought the country back from the brink of depression?

I generally don't give a huge amount of credit to any president for job creation, I think the notion that the president really influences it is largely off base. Be it Trump or Obama, but what's fair is fair.

What you should ask yourself is why, with a red hot economy, his ratings are beyond terrible? It's really not just a matter of saying "polls lie" or whatever.
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Old 09-08-2017, 08:46 AM   #513
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If the Rust Belt US citizens were treated with half the dignity (and half the entitlements) that we offer illegal immigrants,
You have got to be joking? Do you honestly think rust belt citizens have it worse than illegal immigrants, or are treated with less dignity?

Quote:
However told Trump to do those last minute rallies in the Rust Belt was a genius...those few thousand votes were the difference....

Yeah, now whether Trump can actually follow through on improving those people's economic lives remains to be seen. But promising people on the campaign trail that their factory jobs are going to come back sure sounds nice, even if they're being lied to.
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Old 09-08-2017, 09:14 AM   #514
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What you should ask yourself is why, with a red hot economy, his ratings are beyond terrible? It's really not just a matter of saying "polls lie" or whatever.


The liberal media.

I mean, obviously.
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Old 09-08-2017, 10:10 AM   #515
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And a white Christian male is the most oppressed demographic in America.

Dude never stood a chance after a black dude being in charge.

America went black, and it's not going back
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Old 09-08-2017, 10:39 AM   #516
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And a white Christian male is the most oppressed demographic in America.

Dude never stood a chance after a black dude being in charge.

America went black, and it's not going back
Well, the Democrats can keep ignoring them, and keep losing elections. And as Voter ID laws creep closer to becoming reality - the Democrats will continue to struggle to retain the white (and predict the black and latino) middle class.
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Old 09-08-2017, 10:44 AM   #517
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You have got to be joking? Do you honestly think rust belt citizens have it worse than illegal immigrants, or are treated with less dignity?
Why does it have to be worse? Form their POV, they have valid concerns on their own. They have been negatively impacted by unfair trade deals and illegal (and legal) immigration.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Diemen View Post
Yeah, now whether Trump can actually follow through on improving those people's economic lives remains to be seen. But promising people on the campaign trail that their factory jobs are going to come back sure sounds nice, even if they're being lied to.
Yes, that remains to be seen.
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Old 09-08-2017, 10:46 AM   #518
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Did you give that same credit to President Obama, who brought the country back from the brink of depression?
Yeah, he did okay. However - those huge infrastructure projects didn't really materialize.
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Old 09-08-2017, 10:46 AM   #519
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Well, the Democrats can keep ignoring them, and keep losing elections.
You seem very certain of this.

Demographics are destiny.

Make sure you work super hard on voter ID laws. Even those can only stem the tide for so long.
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Old 09-08-2017, 10:48 AM   #520
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What you should ask yourself is why, with a red hot economy, his ratings are beyond terrible? It's really not just a matter of saying "polls lie" or whatever.
The entire government has terrible ratings. Unless the Dems put forth a great candidate (or even a decent one), Trump will win again.
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