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Old 08-08-2017, 07:57 PM   #541
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Now would be a good time for Bono to tell us how exactly do we dismantle an atomic bomb.
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Old 08-08-2017, 08:12 PM   #542
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Old 08-08-2017, 08:28 PM   #543
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some things to keep in mind here:

- there is no evidence yet that they've developed a re-entry vehicle. meaning they can launch these missiles, but can't bring them back down without having them burn up in the atmosphere. yes, their tests often land in the sea of japan, but that's because they don't go up high enough to escape the atmospheric effects. a rocket with an armed nuclear warhead attached to it is far heavier than a rocket loaded with scientific instruments. it's not very useful to fire a nuclear missile into space with no way to get it back down unless you're planning to make a cool new crater on the moon.

- here is a partial list of missile defense systems in the pacific ocean and surrounding area:

AEGIS missile cruiser ships: 90% success rate per ship shooting down mid-range ballistic missiles, 22 cruisers and 62 destroyers, also deployed by japan (6 ships) and south korea (3 ships)
ground-based midcourse defense system (GMD): designed to shoot down ICBMs in space at the top of their flight path while deploying the warhead(s). 55% kill rate per missile.
terminal high-altitude area defense (THAAD): brand new system designed to shoot down short and medium range missiles. 13 out of 16 tests successful.

and as a last line of defense there are hundreds of patriot pac-3 anti-missile systems along the west coast and in hawaii that would be firing thousands of rockets at anything inbound, although that would be mostly out of desperation. those are moreso meant to defend against submarine-launched missiles.

these things all have quite high success rates, and multiply that by the certainty that if something was detected as heading for the USA, everything would be launched to shoot that fucker out of the sky. it's a huge step (still, if true - i'm less skeptical than before but still not convinced) to be sure but they still can't really nuke the USA like this is being made out to sound like.
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Old 08-08-2017, 08:44 PM   #544
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Thanks, Dave, for bringing some knowledge and facts in. I mean that sincerely. It really does help me feel a little bit better.

For what it's worth, I definitely trust our military's capabilities, and I know full well they'd do their absolute damndest to protect us if North Korea ever did actually try anything. I just wish we could have any other president than Trump right now in terms of trying to deal with this and help get Kim Jong-Un to calm down with his blustery threats and such, 'cause his comments are certainly not helping the situation. Even if North Korea is just full of bluster, our president shouldn't be engaging in similar behavior.

I won't be surprised if we do take some sort of action against Kim Jong-Un soon, though. I just hope, if and when we do, it'll be with the cooperation of people who actually DO know what they're doing, and that we can try and find a way to remove him or placate him or whatever that involves as minimal of casualties as possible across the board. I don't know how likely that will be, but who knows.
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Old 08-08-2017, 09:17 PM   #545
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
some things to keep in mind here:

- there is no evidence yet that they've developed a re-entry vehicle. meaning they can launch these missiles, but can't bring them back down without having them burn up in the atmosphere. yes, their tests often land in the sea of japan, but that's because they don't go up high enough to escape the atmospheric effects. a rocket with an armed nuclear warhead attached to it is far heavier than a rocket loaded with scientific instruments. it's not very useful to fire a nuclear missile into space with no way to get it back down unless you're planning to make a cool new crater on the moon.

- here is a partial list of missile defense systems in the pacific ocean and surrounding area:

AEGIS missile cruiser ships: 90% success rate per ship shooting down mid-range ballistic missiles, 22 cruisers and 62 destroyers, also deployed by japan (6 ships) and south korea (3 ships)
ground-based midcourse defense system (GMD): designed to shoot down ICBMs in space at the top of their flight path while deploying the warhead(s). 55% kill rate per missile.
terminal high-altitude area defense (THAAD): brand new system designed to shoot down short and medium range missiles. 13 out of 16 tests successful.

and as a last line of defense there are hundreds of patriot pac-3 anti-missile systems along the west coast and in hawaii that would be firing thousands of rockets at anything inbound, although that would be mostly out of desperation. those are moreso meant to defend against submarine-launched missiles.

these things all have quite high success rates, and multiply that by the certainty that if something was detected as heading for the USA, everything would be launched to shoot that fucker out of the sky. it's a huge step (still, if true - i'm less skeptical than before but still not convinced) to be sure but they still can't really nuke the USA like this is being made out to sound like.
Interesting insight, thanks. And I'll echo what Angel said regarding the military strength of the US.

My biggest fear is that POTUS would actually authorize a preemptive nuclear strike - he is that insane. And in that case there would certainly be opposition on a much larger scale. But this is of course a worst-case-scenario, and in order for him to do such a thing I would imagine there would be many military leaders talking him down. I don't know, the idea of the US moving first just freaks me the fuck out. What kind of precedent would that be setting? Who else would we piss off in the process? How could we even justify such a thing knowing the loss of civilian life that would occur?

Going to need a Melatonin tonight.
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Old 08-08-2017, 09:31 PM   #546
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if he seriously tried to pre-emptively nuke pyongyang, there would be a coup, guaranteed. section 4 of the 25th amendment would be invoked well before that order went down the chain of command, because that would be literally insane. he doesn't have sole power to make that decision on a whim, thankfully. the majority of the cabinet seems like they're sane enough to know that instantly and deliberately starting world war 3 (this time it's nuclear!) with china would be a fairly poor idea.
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Old 08-08-2017, 09:46 PM   #547
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Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
some things to keep in mind here:

- there is no evidence yet that they've developed a re-entry vehicle. meaning they can launch these missiles, but can't bring them back down without having them burn up in the atmosphere. yes, their tests often land in the sea of japan, but that's because they don't go up high enough to escape the atmospheric effects. a rocket with an armed nuclear warhead attached to it is far heavier than a rocket loaded with scientific instruments. it's not very useful to fire a nuclear missile into space with no way to get it back down unless you're planning to make a cool new crater on the moon.
Not so sure about that logic here. NK is effectively in the final stages of a mass game. I don't mean to marginalize complex technologies, but the notion that a scientific payload is less massive than a nuclear bomb is... well... a bit too simple. Nuclear bombs and scientific payloads come in all sorts of masses. At the end of the day, everything is a payload atop a launch vehicle. For a ballistic trajectory missile, re-entry isn't really that complex. Again, not trying to oversimplify a complex product here.. but it's just a mass game. Their payload size consists of a nuclear device of mass x, and their launcher capability is that of mass y. The difference between those two variables really dictates how much room NK has to put in all the important pieces... re-entry being the most massive one, probably. But also, stuff like guidance/targeting and other more complex systems.

This is sort of why talks of miniaturization is a big deal. NK has clearly shown their ability to increase their launcher capability. It's no surprise... chemical rocket propulsion is a relatively scalable technology. At the moment, they seem to be down the line far enough to a point where they're merely testing re-entry and learning from their mistakes. It won't be long before they've got that down pat.

Typically, the most difficult part of a missile or rocket is guidance, navigation, and control. Those are routinely the most classified bits of information for both civilian and military launchers (the same holds true for stuff like military aircraft).

There isn't much peace to be had about imagining NK can't make an ICBM with a big range happen. It's not a matter of if. It's a matter of when. And it's probably pretty soon. If you want comfort, I would put it in the fact that they likely lack the ability to nail a target without making their missile a sitting duck waiting to be shot out of the sky (and they're probably very far from it, too). I'm not much of a weapons expert, so that's a bit out of my domain, but it's my understanding that while modern missile defense systems are probably not so effective against modern missiles, they're likely to be highly effective against what I would assume to be a more predictable weapon. Though, if someone understands that's, by all means, I loathe weapons.


Quote:
these things all have quite high success rates, and multiply that by the certainty that if something was detected as heading for the USA, everything would be launched to shoot that fucker out of the sky. it's a huge step (still, if true - i'm less skeptical than before but still not convinced) to be sure but they still can't really nuke the USA like this is being made out to sound like.

It's definitely being made out to sound like it's a lot more than it is, I believe. But, the rhetoric coming from North Korea is quite impressive. I suppose that's what happens when you give two children nuclear weapons. If a missile deterrent system even needs to be used, that's a pretty big deal in itself. At the end of the day, I think Kim is all talk. But Donald is probably itching to pull the trigger.
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Old 08-08-2017, 09:55 PM   #548
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my understanding is that nuclear warheads are on the heavy side for the kind of launchers that go underneath them, as you need to have counter-measures and arming and control systems included as well which add a ton of weight relative to weapon payload. but i am no expert and i was admittedly perhaps a bit too speculative there. of course i defer to your mastery when it comes to anything to do with putting things into space. i'm still only at about intermediate KSP level.

i still haven't managed to land anyone on return anyone from duna, by the way
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Old 08-08-2017, 10:36 PM   #549
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if he seriously tried to pre-emptively nuke pyongyang, there would be a coup, guaranteed. section 4 of the 25th amendment would be invoked well before that order went down the chain of command, because that would be literally insane. he doesn't have sole power to make that decision on a whim, thankfully. the majority of the cabinet seems like they're sane enough to know that instantly and deliberately starting world war 3 (this time it's nuclear!) with china would be a fairly poor idea.
I hope against hope that you're right. It is just a tad more comforting that he can't just press the button and launch a pre-emptive strike... the instant response capability is reserved for the scenario of an exchange or strike from another country, correct?
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Old 08-08-2017, 10:44 PM   #550
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Thanks for your thots Dave C

The original nukes were large bombs with around 6 or 8 pieces of uranium (?) set in a ring with some motorized device on each to force then together at the right time to cause a nuclear explosion. Remembering a drawing from a science book waaaaay back
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Old 08-09-2017, 05:44 AM   #551
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my understanding is that nuclear warheads are on the heavy side for the kind of launchers that go underneath them, as you need to have counter-measures and arming and control systems included as well which add a ton of weight relative to weapon payload. but i am no expert and i was admittedly perhaps a bit too speculative there. of course i defer to your mastery when it comes to anything to do with putting things into space. i'm still only at about intermediate KSP level.

i still haven't managed to land anyone on return anyone from duna, by the way

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I went Eve for my first extrakerbin lander. Worst mistake... took me a bazillion tries to get back off. Nuclear thermal cruise engine on there

Blah blah blah Kim.
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Old 08-09-2017, 09:01 AM   #552
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Attachment 11395

I went Eve for my first extrakerbin lander. Worst mistake... took me a bazillion tries to get back off. Nuclear thermal cruise engine on there

Blah blah blah Kim.
you've got a great set of lander cans
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Old 08-09-2017, 09:19 AM   #553
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you've got a great set of lander cans


Do you want Dunar advice on the space thread?
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Old 08-09-2017, 10:00 AM   #554
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So if NK responds with another missile test, or verbal threat.....Trump has to do something right? Otherwise he looks like just like Obama on Syria with his red line comment.

And we can't have weakness in a leader. This is why we elected Trump, to not back down to foreign threats!!

Or was that a con too???
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Old 08-09-2017, 10:24 AM   #555
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Do you want Dunar advice on the space thread?
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Old 08-09-2017, 11:59 AM   #556
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Manafort's house raised by FBI this morning - "no knock" raid.

And now Trump's bluster on NK makes more sense.
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Old 08-09-2017, 12:09 PM   #557
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I am so tired of people equating the two and pretending as if we were screwed either way, as if one isn't dramatically, sickeningly worse than the other.
Yup. False equivalency.

There are degrees to everything. No two situations are possibly the same with that much ideological difference. Hell...no two situations are the same, ever, that don't relate to math or science.

Flawed people...go to the platform. One is far closer to your belief than the other. Even if you were somehow to mathematically cross cancel "Trump/Clinton", you have party platform.

It is a lazy exercise.
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Old 08-09-2017, 12:32 PM   #558
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if he seriously tried to pre-emptively nuke pyongyang, there would be a coup, guaranteed. section 4 of the 25th amendment would be invoked well before that order went down the chain of command, because that would be literally insane. he doesn't have sole power to make that decision on a whim, thankfully. the majority of the cabinet seems like they're sane enough to know that instantly and deliberately starting world war 3 (this time it's nuclear!) with china would be a fairly poor idea.
To directly copy some of the lyrics of the song lyric link I posted earlier, from the Dead Kennedys "Gone With My Wind", an imagination of the President going for the button and staffers taking him out (this song and Glen Campbell have been playing in my brain stereo on loop):

"Let go of me. Do you think I'm mad?
To tell the truth, sir, I'd rather not say
Just keep your paws inside your pockets
And planet earth will be OK.

But you reached for the button anyhow
I had no choice but to knock you out
That's just last night's bump on your head
On to the next crisis, it's another day"

https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/dead...ithmywind.html
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Old 08-09-2017, 04:08 PM   #559
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Flawed people...go to the platform. One is far closer to your belief than the other. Even if you were somehow to mathematically cross cancel "Trump/Clinton", you have party platform.
Yeah, that's the part I really didn't get. Okay, so some on the left weren't enamored by Clinton. Okay, fine. Not every candidate will hit your ideal checklist, that's understandable. I agree, though, that this whole thing of feeling she's as bad as Trump is ridiculous.

But even if they didn't like her, surely they could've considered the fact that the Democratic platform as a whole was different from the Republican one, and that it would've been a lot easier to try and bend Clinton's ear and hold her feet to the fire to get certain things liberals wanted passed than it currently is with Trump. Yes, she likely would've had some issues if she were facing a Republican majority in Congress, no question, but she's also, y'know, competent and experienced, and while the road would've for sure been bumpy, I think we still would've made some headway on at least a few things.

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Manafort's house raised by FBI this morning - "no knock" raid.

And now Trump's bluster on NK makes more sense.
Ooh. Interesting. Saw a headline earlier that he's also continuing to attack McConnell over the GOP's failure on the healthcare issue.

But yeah, gotta love that Trump's willing to rattle nuclear cages just to try and distract everyone from his investigation . I know this investigation needs to play out and all, but seriously, I do wonder sometimes if we really have to wait for it to finish before escorting Trump out of the White House. His erratic behavior alone should be reason enough to let him go, I think. It's causing way too much chaos.
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Old 08-09-2017, 05:51 PM   #560
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Ha, I snorted when I heard this morning that one of Manafort's houses got raided.

RE: NK
Public radio interviews did also mentioned that they probably did not have the re-entery system worked out yet.

Other interviewees have stated that Kim's goal is basically keep himself in power by having a nuclear strike capability to act as a deterrent, and that he is actually quite rational about that as a strategy. One Guamian said they were used to his saber rattling and not that concerned at this point. Kim also has to maintain his "all powerful" image at home.

So I'm somewhat less nervous about him for now, and more nervous about our spewing words and torrentially tweeting idiot president. Ugh!
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