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Old 10-06-2008, 11:23 AM   #921
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Va. GOP fears McCain could lose state - Jonathan Martin - Politico.com




I live in a targeted state, and a targeted region within the targeted state. Sometimes I feel like I'm just floating through my classes because I never think about them, but I somehow manage to go through the motions of doing assignments and taking exams, meanwhile my mind/energy are entirely focused on the election.

To think...November 5 this will all be over, and it's also my birthday. Less than a month...and it'll probably be the most insane month ever. Virginia will deliver for Obama.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:39 AM   #922
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The FiveThirtyEight guys have been visiting the field offices of each candidate in various states. This blog entry offers some telling insight as to why McCain's support is slipping.

Reason #78 McCain is losing?

Quote:
The meat of this post is below the slideshow, and it’s about the McCain ground game. It's probably going to make a little stir.

Our apologies in advance to the Obama organizers and volunteers who aren’t going to get the full justice they deserve in this post. They believe Missouri is going blue this year, and they’re working their bodies into the ground to make that happen.

We’re getting used to this relentless Obama operation: organizers trained in both tactics and campaign culture, working so hard they have trouble remembering what happened 48 hours ago – it’s too distant – and convinced that if they stay in their lane and trust the structure it’ll pay off in the end.

Obama has 40 offices now open in Missouri, and Justin Hamilton, Obama’s Press Secretary for Missouri, told us that while he couldn’t confirm below or above the published reports of 150 organizers (it didn’t come from the campaign), the campaign is only adding to its ground force. Organizers have now recruited 2500 neighborhood team leaders statewide, folks who do the far more effective work than any 30-second ad or yard signs, actual face-to-face contact and persuasion of their neighbors.

For a Democrat to win Missouri, he or she has to follow the Claire McCaskill map, which is win the blue urban centers in Kansas City and St. Louis city by wide margins, hold down the losses in outstate Missouri (McCaskill spent huge time in and around Springfield, and got to 42% there while Kerry only managed 37%), and then win highly populated St. Louis County (20% of Missouri’s overall vote) by enough votes to hold on for a win. McCaskill won St. Louis County by 12, Kerry only won it by 9. Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton in the County, 63% to 36%.

Something interesting is happening with John McCain’s campaign. Up until now, we’ve had no trouble gaining access to field offices and volunteers. Here in St. Louis, we were told by Tina Hervey, Missouri Republican State Party Press Secretary, that she had never heard of FiveThirtyEight, and while they trusted Politico, we were people who they had to decide whether we “shouldn’t or don’t need to be talking to.” (McCain’s Missouri press secretary actually works out of Iowa, and did not return calls or email.) I told Tina that’s not a story we wanted to write, that this was our first Republican resistance, and that while she may not have heard of us, we’d probably go over 2.5 million site visits this week, now that we’re regularly past 400,000 per weekday. I told her I’d hold off writing her flat refusal and give her the opportunity to change her mind.

No budging. We were told that we’d be asked to leave public field offices we now attempted to visit. We did not get any promised follow-up helping get access to the post-debate Palin rally last night, and we were locked out. Hmm.

Let’s be clear. We've observed no comparison between these ground campaigns. To begin with, there’s a 4-1 ratio of offices in most states. We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. In one state, McCain’s state field director sat in one of these offices and, sotto voce, complained to us that only one man was making calls while the others were talking to each other about how much they didn't like Obama, which was true. But the field director made no effort to change this. This was the state field director.

Only for the first time the other day did we see a McCain organizer make a single phone call. So we've now seen that once. The McCain organizers seem to operate as maître Ds. Let me escort you to your phone, sir. Pick any one of this sea of empty chairs. I'll be sitting over here if you need any assistance.

Given a choice between taking embarrassing photos of empty phone banks, we give McCain’s people the chance to pose for photos to show us the action for what they continually claim we “just missed.” No more. We stop into offices at all open hours of the day, but generally more in the afternoon and evening. “Call time,” for both campaigns, is all day, but the time when folks over 65 are generally targeted begins in late afternoon and goes til 8 or 9pm. Universally, McCain’s people stop earlier. Even when we show up at 6:15pm, we’re told we just missed the big phone bank, or to come back in 30 minutes. If we show up an hour later, we “just missed it” again.

The McCain offices are also calm, sedate. Little movement. No hustle. In the Obama offices, it's a whirlwind. People move. It's a dynamic bustle. You can feel it in our photos.

Up to this point, we’ve been giving McCain's ground campaign a lot of benefit of the doubt. We can’t stop convincing ourselves that there must – must – be a warehouse full of 1,000 McCain volunteers somewhere in a national, central location just dialing away. This can’t be all they’re doing. Because even in a place like Colorado Springs, McCain’s ground campaign is getting blown away by the Obama efforts. It doesn't mean Obama will win Colorado Springs, but it means Obama's campaign will not look itself in the mirror afterward and ask, "what more could we have done?"

You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.

Here on out, our skepticism is going to be higher. We truly respect organizers on both sides, because it is grindingly hard work for minimal pay. It’s powered by a belief in doing what’s right. We do not quote them or get them in trouble. Moreover, we truly respect direct action by volunteers – who do exist on the McCain side, just as a tiny, tiny fraction of the Obama side – but if the attitude continues on this unhelpful and obstructive turn, we’re going to spend less time making excuses for what we observe. Less benefit of the doubt. Show us real work and we'll cover it. We want to.


We'll be up in Chicago tonight making Nate pound RCP shooters. Then, Indiana. There's a huge story unfolding in Indiana.

-- Sean Quinn
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:43 AM   #923
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I'd like to work in a McCain office. Sounds relaxing.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:53 AM   #924
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I see Nate's back in Chicago. Good for him.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:56 AM   #925
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Originally Posted by BoMac View Post
I see Nate's back in Chicago. Good for him.
I didn't make the connection!
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:57 AM   #926
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I'd like to work in a McCain office. Sounds relaxing.

me too.. Could get some serious zzzzzzzzs in there as well. I am all for napping at work...
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Old 10-06-2008, 12:00 PM   #927
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I see Nate's back in Chicago. Good for him.
His company must've gone bankrupt again. Nice. It's a big country - lots of cheating to be done. TRUST and RESPECT!
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Old 10-06-2008, 12:16 PM   #928
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I didn't make the connection!
It's kind of sad that when I read or see something, I sometimes make a connection to an Interference-related thread or post.

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Old 10-06-2008, 12:30 PM   #929
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His company must've gone bankrupt again. Nice. It's a big country - lots of cheating to be done. TRUST and RESPECT!
Well, it is the United States of Recession, after all.
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Old 10-06-2008, 04:07 PM   #930
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I'd like to work in a McCain office. Sounds relaxing.
And probably very easy to find a parking space. I had to park across the street when I went to my local Obama office the other day.
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Old 10-06-2008, 05:29 PM   #931
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Have you read this? Make-Believe Maverick : Rolling Stone

I knew about some of this before reading it, but still, it's kind of horrifying to see all his misdeeds tallied in one place.

I liked him up until this campaign got going, too. Now, he scares me more than Bush ever did.
I just read that article on rollingstone.com, and I'm glad it's already posted here. This part was similar to the argument I made when I had a heated debate with a couple posters around here a few weeks ago.

Quote:
Even those in the military who celebrate McCain's patriotism and sacrifice question why his POW experience has been elevated as his top qualification to be commander in chief. "It took guts to go through that and to come out reasonably intact and able to pick up the pieces of your life and move on," says Wilkerson, Colin Powell's former chief of staff, who has known McCain since the 1980s. "It is unquestionably a demonstration of the character of the man. But I don't think that it is a special qualification for being president of the United States. In some respects, I'm not sure that's the kind of character I want sitting in the Oval Office. I'm not sure that much time in a prisoner-of-war status doesn't do something to you. Doesn't do something to you psychologically, doesn't do something to you that might make you a little more volatile, a little less apt to listen to reason, a little more inclined to be volcanic in your temperament."
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Old 10-06-2008, 07:08 PM   #932
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You know, I have to think that a lot of the dirty/ridiculous stuff/tactics that the McCain campaign has been employing have to fall at the feet of Karl Rove or his people that the McCain campaign has working for them.

And then I have to wonder if history will look upon Karl Rove as one of the dirtiest, cutthroat, most conscienceless political operatives of his time.
I wouldn't be surprised- KR involved. Hopefully he'll be "placed" (historicaly) on the shelf next to Lee Atwater & ooops _______ forgot the other guy's name (involved w Fox News).

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I love that Sarah Palin is trying to invent Obama scandals while traipsing around the lower 48 states while avoiding a subpoena back at home. Classic.
I hope that ? commisions report from Alaska on her activities will make it out before the election. I know SP's been fighting it.

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That's what Obama needs to do.

Go out and just say it, no matter what they are talking about. Just say, I want you to stop incinuating that I am a terrorist. Say it plain and say it looking into his eyes. Either McCain will apoligize and you've got your knockout or he gets flustered and takes it takes him off his game!

This is what I think would be a good idea.

But the Obama campaign seems to want to play these debates so they just tie, that way they stay steady.
I heard on the radio today- a Barack campaign person said he will adress it some form.
I think he can say it in an assertive, but not angry way. And then go back to his topics.

His campaign put out a video on the Keating Five.

Some how between Barack calling him o n this and mentioning the K5--
hopefully McSame will "lose it" on camera!!! :crossedfingers: !!!!
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Old 10-06-2008, 07:18 PM   #933
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Originally Posted by U2democrat View Post
Va. GOP fears McCain could lose state - Jonathan Martin - Politico.com

I live in a targeted state, and a targeted region within the targeted state. Sometimes I feel like I'm just floating through my classes because I never think about them, but I somehow manage to go through the motions of doing assignments and taking exams, meanwhile my mind/energy are entirely focused on the election.

To think...November 5 this will all be over, and it's also my birthday. Less than a month...and it'll probably be the most insane month ever. Virginia will deliver for Obama.


I bet this is pretty surreal, U2dem!

Hopfully you'll get the Big birthday present you've been hoping for!!!

Keep Your Eyes on the Prize!!!!
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Old 10-06-2008, 07:29 PM   #934
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I’ve noticed that the vast majority of undecided voters I’ve seen paneled or questioned are all about the issues, 98% personal financial issues (very much including healthcare). They’re also generally the ones that come across as the most worried. Those well entrenched already in either an Obama or McCain vote seem, while certainly worried about the immediate future, seem pretty confident in their respective candidates solutions. The undecided’s though seem clearly the closest to panicked. They’re not making a decision based on hopey dreamy Obama vs All American war hero McCain. They’re not buying into any of that. They want answers and detail and they seem really genuinely worried about making the wrong decision.

That to me suggests that McCain spending the last few weeks on a character attack campaign would be a truly fatal mistake. If Obama keeps it cool and continues to intelligently and informatively work through the issues while McCain simply plays it like one of those old heckler guys from the Muppet Show, he’ll get absolutely steamrolled. To me, it would be a monumentally stupid decision on his part. It might have worked in April if this election were taking place in May, but not under the current climate. Everyone will be paying attention to the guy on stage and what he’s saying, not the guy throwing rotten fruit at him from the cheap seats. They surely can’t be that stupid as to not see this?
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Old 10-06-2008, 08:14 PM   #935
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This is going to get ugly. All hope at issues over the next month are diminishing.
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Old 10-06-2008, 08:29 PM   #936
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I think Palin is going to get real ugly. She’ll play up to the extreme end of the anti-Obama sentiment on the right. Suggestive on faith, suggestive on background etc. Not really saying anything out and open, but totally dog whistling the “He’s really a Muslim/Marxist stooge/anti-American” type of extreme stupidity that is definitely out there in droves on the right. Lord knows what McCain is going to do from day to day. Can anyone guess? I’m half expecting him to switch to Richard Branson type stunts any day now. Drive through Times Square in a tank, surrounded by Palin lookalike bikini models or something. Parachute into the middle of an Obama rally and start a water fight. Silly things.

I just really hope Obama stays above any ugliness. He’s done well so far to stay mostly above, all the way through the primaries and this campaign. Would be a real shame for him to stoop to the Republican level so late, and I really don’t think he needs to or should. Would be a mistake as I said above. Stay on message and on the issues, it’s certainly what people are listening for. The voters that will make a difference couldn’t give a fuck whether his middle name is Hussein or not.
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Old 10-06-2008, 09:58 PM   #937
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Real clear projection -

Obama/Biden 364 McCain/Palin 174

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map


I think this is the best Obama can do, he may still get 11 more (Indiana)

to make it Obama/Biden 375 McCain/Palin 163


which means he can not do as well as
Clinton/Gore 379 Dole/Kemp 159,
Reagan/Bush 489 Carter/Mondale 49, or
Nixon/Agnew 520 McGovern/Shriver 17


too bad we didn't get a Clinton on the ticket.
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:22 PM   #938
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This is going to get ugly. All hope at issues over the next month are diminishing.


Yeah, and your candidate is the one starting it, or I should say, your candidate and his pit bull soccer mom.
-First she calls him hanging out with terrorists and suggests a racial problem
-then he comes out and call Obama a liar for no reason, but saying "We don't know anything about him..." blah blah.

All BS and they know it and they're doing it because they're desperate.
Good, keep it up. "Let you hatred flow throw you; anger, come to the dark side".......
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:24 PM   #939
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Yeah, and your candidate is the one starting it, or I should say, your candidate and his pit bull soccer mom.
-First she calls him hanging out with terrorists and suggests a racial problem
-then he comes out and call Obama a liar for no reason, but saying "We don't know anything about him..." blah blah.

All BS and they know it and they're doing it because they're desperate.
Good, keep it up. "Let you hatred flow throw you; anger, come to the dark side".......
dread is voting for Obama....
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:26 PM   #940
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Yeah, and your candidate is the one starting it, or I should say, your candidate and his pit bull soccer mom.
-First she calls him hanging out with terrorists and suggests a racial problem
-then he comes out and call Obama a liar for no reason, but saying "We don't know anything about him..." blah blah.

All BS and they know it and they're doing it because they're desperate.
Good, keep it up. "Let you hatred flow throw you; anger, come to the dark side".......
In all fairness, Dreadsox has said repeatedly that he thinks McCain is nuts(or something like that) and that he will be voting for Obama.
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