US 2008 Presidential Campaign Discussion Thread - Part 9

[Utoo]

Originally Posted by diamond

Joe Biden loses Barack Obama the Catholic vote

Wow, that's pretty damn sensationalist. Two or three bishops don't like Joe Biden because he's pro-choice? Gosh, they must not like any other pro-choice Catholic. And, golly--that must mean that Catholics have never, ever voted for a pro-choice politician---ever! Crikey, say it ain't so!

It ain't so.

The fact of the matter is this: the Catholics who are silly enough to vote according to what two bishops say probably aren't the ones who were in the Democratic camp from the start. Joe Biden doesn't make any difference.

The second fact of the matter is this: All these statistics about "Catholics have voted for every winning President," "State X has voted for every winning President," etc., are all garbage. You can look at statistics and come up with such a conclusion over and over again---but it doesn't mean anything. Years ago, it was noted that people who got pancreatic cancer drank a lot of coffee---so, it was assumed that coffee/caffeine caused pancreatic cancer. Someone a little smarter then pointed out that people who smoked also are more likely than non-smokers to drink a lot of coffee. Smoking is a known cause of pancreatic cancer. Coffee-drinking was just an association, but had nothing to do with the cause of cancer. Still, you can look at the numbers and conclude that drinking coffee increases your chance of pancreatic cancer.

It's the same way with elections. I read a week or two ago something like, "Fairfax County, VA has voted for the winning President in the last X number of elections." (Not sure if it was indeed Fairfax or another county). Does that mean that Obama or McCain will ONLY win nationally IF they win Fairfax County, Virginia? Well, maybe if VA turns out to be the only swing state. But really? Should they put ALL of their money and foot soldiers into Fairfax County, VA to ensure that they win? One county, in one state?

It ain't so.

[anitram]

Oh PLEASE.

How many Catholics listen to the Bishops? I went to Catholic schools my whole life, all the parents put their girls on birth control, and so on. Give me a break!

[Irvine511]

Gallup Daily: Obama Now Leads McCain by 5 Points

[2861U2]

^ National polls only matter when Obama is up, right?

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by 2861U2

^ National polls only matter when Obama is up, right?

i report, you decide.

i could also flip it on it's head and note that the only polls you post are when McCain was enjoying his bounce.

national polls will matter more the closer we get to the election, though the battleground state polls matter more. as i've said repeatedly, the polls are good to understand a snapshot in time, and to map overall trends, but they are a poor thing to use to make a prediction.

it is what it is. and what all the polls are showing is a move towards Obama.

but, in my opinion, Obama is going to have to be at least 5 points ahead to compensate for racism.

[2861U2]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

i report, you decide.

i could also flip it on it's head and note that the only polls you post are when McCain was enjoying his bounce.

national polls will matter more the closer we get to the election, though the battleground state polls matter more. as i've said repeatedly, the polls are good to understand a snapshot in time, and to map overall trends, but they are a poor thing to use to make a prediction.

it is what it is. and what all the polls are showing is a move towards Obama.

but, in my opinion, Obama is going to have to be at least 5 points ahead to compensate for racism.

I agree national polls aren't that important, at least for another month. The state polls are interesting, and some of the battleground states are very close, which is good news for McCain. He has a shot of picking up Michigan or Minnesota, among others. I don't see any way Obama picks up Florida or some other fairly red states. We'll see though. State polls lag behind national polls. The only reason I posted the RCP average with McCain ahead post-convention was because September 7 was the first time since I believe April 13 that he was ahead nationally. I knew it wouldn't last. I expect for the next few weeks the national polls to show anywhere from a tie to a 4 point Obama lead, though the debates coming up might change that.

[Strongbow]

Originally Posted by 2861U2

I agree national polls aren't that important, at least for another month. The state polls are interesting, and some of the battleground states are very close, which is good news for McCain. He has a shot of picking up Michigan or Minnesota, among others. I don't see any way Obama picks up Florida or some other fairly red states. We'll see though. State polls lag behind national polls. The only reason I posted the RCP average with McCain ahead post-convention was because September 7 was the first time since I believe April 13 that he was ahead nationally. I knew it wouldn't last. I expect for the next few weeks the national polls to show anywhere from a tie to a 4 point Obama lead, though the debates coming up might change that.

I've noticed that state polls are a little slower in picking up the latest political trends. McCain will probably drop in many of these states by next Friday(first debate) based on the national polls.

[anitram]

YouTube - Barack Obama Fires Back Against McCain's 'Sad' Attacks

Keep it coming, Obama.

McCain on the economy = PHAIL.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by 2861U2

I agree national polls aren't that important, at least for another month. The state polls are interesting, and some of the battleground states are very close, which is good news for McCain. He has a shot of picking up Michigan or Minnesota, among others.

I will boldly predict that McCain isn't going to win either of these states.

[Strongbow]

Originally Posted by anitram

I will boldly predict that McCain isn't going to win either of these states.

Thats not a bold prediction since McCain is not supposed to win either of those states. If McCain were to just win one of them, McCain would have a comfortable victory in the electoral college. Obama cannot afford to lose ANY Blue states from 2004.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by anitram

I will boldly predict that McCain isn't going to win either of these states.

i think FL is going to be closer than anyone thinks. i don't think Palin will play well there. we're hearing about the 600,000 african-americans who didn't vote in 2004 who've now been registered. and the Obama campaign is going to spend $40m there alone.

[anitram]

Originally Posted by Strongbow

Thats not a bold prediction

It's a manner of speech for heaven's sake!

[anitram]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

i think FL is going to be closer than anyone thinks. i don't think Palin will play well there. we're hearing about the 600,000 african-americans who didn't vote in 2004 who've now been registered. and the Obama campaign is going to spend $40m there alone.

Actually those 600K were already registered in 2004. There have been tens of thousands registered SINCE on top of that number.

I agree that FL will be closer than people may assume given the two candidates (really let's be honest, McCain has almost every advantage down there).

Sarah Palin canceled her California appearances and it looks like she's either doing that or has already done that in Washington state as well, so I think it's reasonable to assume they are ready to concede those which is absolutely no surprise.

[deep]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

i think FL is going to be closer than anyone thinks. i don't think Palin will play well there. we're hearing about the 600,000 african-americans who didn't vote in 2004 who've now been registered. and the Obama campaign is going to spend $40m there alone.

don't worry,
they will run out of ballots

and the wait at the polls will be 10 hours


it can be punted to Scalia. Roberts, Alito, Thomas and Kennedy
if it looks like it is not going the right way.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by deep

don't worry,
they will run out of ballots

and the wait at the polls will be 10 hours


it can be punted to Scalia. Roberts, Alito, Thomas and Kennedy
if it looks like it is not going the right way.

at least John McCain

doesn't have a brother

who's the governor.

[deep]

(a sister/ brother, perhaps? )

Gore told Bush that he was withdrawing his concession.
Bush asked why. Gore said his people told him that he had won Florida.
Bush said that his brother assured him that he would win the state.
Gore yelled "your brother doesn't decide this election" and then hung up.

sad to say,
Gore got that one wrong.

[Strongbow]

In Florida, Bush increased his vote total from 2,912,790 in 2000 to 3,964,522 in 2004 , a 36% increase. Democrats increased their vote total in Florida from 2,912,253 to 3,583,544, a 23% vote increase. Given the number of people voting, it would take a very large number of new registered voters for the Democrats to really change things down there. They would probably have a better chance if they could find a way to draw more Republicans and independents away from McCain.

McCain has a clear advantage with voters over the age of 60. Florida has a large popular over 60 and they vote in higher percentages than any other age group. Most people in Florida support offshore drilling like McCain. Florida also has a large number of veterans, another group that McCain has a strong lead with. Also, active military personal, especially officers, often choose Florida as their home state(even though they don't actually live there), another voting block where McCain has a clear lead.

[deep]

I think I'll post something very important

(I saw it on Drudge ) *

* worth 10 FYM bonus points

[deep]

"It would be a disgrace and a humiliation if Barack Obama does not win."
Woody Allen - elitist, celebrity

[Irvine511]

a forward i got today:

This is Your Nation on White Privilege

By Tim Wise

For those who still can't grasp the concept of white privilege, or who are constantly looking for some easy-to-understand examples of it, perhaps this list will help.

White privilege is when you can get pregnant at seventeen like Bristol Palin and everyone is quick to insist that your life and that of your family is a personal matter, and that no one has a right to judge you or your parents, because "every family has challenges," even as black and Latino families with similar "challenges" are regularly typified as irresponsible, pathological and arbiters of social decay.

White privilege is when you can call yourself a "fuckin' redneck," like Bristol Palin's boyfriend does, and talk about how if anyone messes with you, you'll "kick their fuckin' ass," and talk about how you like to "shoot shit" for fun, and still be viewed as a responsible, all-American boy (and a great son-in-law to be) rather than a thug.

White privilege is when you can attend four different colleges in six years like Sarah Palin did (one of which you basically failed out of, then returned to after making up some coursework at a community college), and no one questions your intelligence or commitment to achievement, whereas a person of color who did this would be viewed as unfit for college, and probably someone who only got in in the first place because of affirmative action.

White privilege is when you can claim that being mayor of a town smaller than most medium-sized colleges, and then Governor of a state with about the same number of people as the lower fifth of the island of Manhattan, makes you ready to potentially be president, and people don't all piss on themselves with laughter, while being a black U.S. Senator, two-term state Senator, and constitutional law scholar, means you're "untested."

White privilege is being able to say that you support the words "under God" in the pledge of allegiance because "if it was good enough for the founding fathers, it's good enough for me," and not be immediately disqualified from holding office--since, after all, the pledge was written in the late 1800s and the "under God" part wasn't added until the 1950s--while believing that reading accused criminals and terrorists their rights (because, ya know, the Constitution, which you used to teach at a prestigious law school requires it), is a dangerous and silly idea only supported by mushy liberals.

White privilege is being able to be a gun enthusiast and not make people immediately scared of you.

White privilege is being able to have a husband who was a member of an extremist political party that wants your state to secede from the Union, and whose motto was "Alaska first," and no one questions your patriotism or that of your family, while if you're black and your spouse merely fails to come to a 9/11 memorial so she can be home with her kids on the first day of school, people immediately think she's being disrespectful.

White privilege is being able to make fun of community organizers and the work they do--like, among other things, fight for the right of women to vote, or for civil rights, or the 8-hour workday, or an end to child labor--and people think you're being pithy and tough, but if you merely question the experience of a small town mayor and 18-month governor with no foreign policy expertise beyond a class she took in college--you're somehow being mean, or even sexist.

White privilege is being able to convince white women who don't even agree with you on any substantive issue to vote for you and your running mate anyway, because all of a sudden your presence on the ticket has inspired confidence in these same white women, and made them give your party a "second look."

White privilege is being able to fire people who didn't support your political campaigns and not be accused of abusing your power or being a typical politician who engages in favoritism, while being black and merely knowing some folks from the old-line political machines in Chicago means you must be corrupt.

White privilege is being able to attend churches over the years whose pastors say that people who voted for John Kerry or merely criticize George W. Bush are going to hell, and that the U.S. is an explicitly Christian nation and the job of Christians is to bring Christian theological principles into government, and who bring in speakers who say the conflict in the Middle East is God's punishment on Jews for rejecting Jesus, and everyone can still think you're just a good church-going Christian, but if you're black and friends with a black pastor who has noted (as have Colin Powell and the U.S. Department of Defense) that terrorist attacks are often the result of U.S. foreign policy and who talks about the history of racism and its effect on black people, you're an extremist who probably hates America.

White privilege is not knowing what the Bush Doctrine is when asked by a reporter, and then people get angry at the reporter for asking you such a "trick question," while being black and merely refusing to give one-word answers to the queries of Bill O'Reilly means you're dodging the question, or trying to seem overly intellectual and nuanced.

White privilege is being able to claim your experience as a POW has anything at all to do with your fitness for president, while being black and experiencing racism is, as Sarah Palin has referred to it a "light" burden.

And finally, white privilege is the only thing that could possibly allow someone to become president when he has voted with George W. Bush 90 percent of the time, even as unemployment is skyrocketing, people are losing their homes, inflation is rising, and the U.S. is increasingly isolated from world opinion, just because white voters aren't sure about that whole "change" thing. Ya know, it's just too vague and ill-defined, unlike, say, four more years of the same, which is very concrete and certain…

White privilege is, in short, the problem.