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#21 |
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Lovetown
Posts: 8,343
Local Time: 07:52 AM
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Wow, that's pretty damn sensationalist. Two or three bishops don't like Joe Biden because he's pro-choice? Gosh, they must not like any other pro-choice Catholic. And, golly--that must mean that Catholics have never, ever voted for a pro-choice politician---ever! Crikey, say it ain't so!
__________________It ain't so. The fact of the matter is this: the Catholics who are silly enough to vote according to what two bishops say probably aren't the ones who were in the Democratic camp from the start. Joe Biden doesn't make any difference. The second fact of the matter is this: All these statistics about "Catholics have voted for every winning President," "State X has voted for every winning President," etc., are all garbage. You can look at statistics and come up with such a conclusion over and over again---but it doesn't mean anything. Years ago, it was noted that people who got pancreatic cancer drank a lot of coffee---so, it was assumed that coffee/caffeine caused pancreatic cancer. Someone a little smarter then pointed out that people who smoked also are more likely than non-smokers to drink a lot of coffee. Smoking is a known cause of pancreatic cancer. Coffee-drinking was just an association, but had nothing to do with the cause of cancer. Still, you can look at the numbers and conclude that drinking coffee increases your chance of pancreatic cancer. It's the same way with elections. I read a week or two ago something like, "Fairfax County, VA has voted for the winning President in the last X number of elections." (Not sure if it was indeed Fairfax or another county). Does that mean that Obama or McCain will ONLY win nationally IF they win Fairfax County, Virginia? Well, maybe if VA turns out to be the only swing state. But really? Should they put ALL of their money and foot soldiers into Fairfax County, VA to ensure that they win? One county, in one state? It ain't so.
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#22 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 07:52 AM
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Oh PLEASE.
__________________How many Catholics listen to the Bishops? I went to Catholic schools my whole life, all the parents put their girls on birth control, and so on. Give me a break! |
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#23 |
Blue Crack Supplier
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 34,032
Local Time: 07:52 AM
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#24 |
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: watching the Cubs
Posts: 4,292
Local Time: 05:52 AM
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^ National polls only matter when Obama is up, right?
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#25 |
Blue Crack Supplier
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 34,032
Local Time: 07:52 AM
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i report, you decide. i could also flip it on it's head and note that the only polls you post are when McCain was enjoying his bounce. national polls will matter more the closer we get to the election, though the battleground state polls matter more. as i've said repeatedly, the polls are good to understand a snapshot in time, and to map overall trends, but they are a poor thing to use to make a prediction. it is what it is. and what all the polls are showing is a move towards Obama. but, in my opinion, Obama is going to have to be at least 5 points ahead to compensate for racism. |
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#26 | |
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: watching the Cubs
Posts: 4,292
Local Time: 05:52 AM
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Quote:
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#27 | |
Refugee
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,943
Local Time: 11:52 AM
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Quote:
I've noticed that state polls are a little slower in picking up the latest political trends. McCain will probably drop in many of these states by next Friday(first debate) based on the national polls. |
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#28 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 07:52 AM
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Keep it coming, Obama. McCain on the economy = PHAIL. |
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#29 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 07:52 AM
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I will boldly predict that McCain isn't going to win either of these states.
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#30 |
Refugee
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,943
Local Time: 11:52 AM
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Thats not a bold prediction since McCain is not supposed to win either of those states. If McCain were to just win one of them, McCain would have a comfortable victory in the electoral college. Obama cannot afford to lose ANY Blue states from 2004.
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#31 | |
Blue Crack Supplier
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 34,032
Local Time: 07:52 AM
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Quote:
i think FL is going to be closer than anyone thinks. i don't think Palin will play well there. we're hearing about the 600,000 african-americans who didn't vote in 2004 who've now been registered. and the Obama campaign is going to spend $40m there alone. |
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#32 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 07:52 AM
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#33 | |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 07:52 AM
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Quote:
I agree that FL will be closer than people may assume given the two candidates (really let's be honest, McCain has almost every advantage down there). Sarah Palin canceled her California appearances and it looks like she's either doing that or has already done that in Washington state as well, so I think it's reasonable to assume they are ready to concede those which is absolutely no surprise. |
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#34 | |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,602
Local Time: 04:52 AM
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Quote:
they will run out of ballots and the wait at the polls will be 10 hours it can be punted to Scalia. Roberts, Alito, Thomas and Kennedy if it looks like it is not going the right way. |
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#35 |
Blue Crack Supplier
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 34,032
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#36 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,602
Local Time: 04:52 AM
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(a sister/ brother, perhaps? )
Gore told Bush that he was withdrawing his concession. Bush asked why. Gore said his people told him that he had won Florida. Bush said that his brother assured him that he would win the state. Gore yelled "your brother doesn't decide this election" and then hung up. sad to say, Gore got that one wrong. |
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#37 |
Refugee
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,943
Local Time: 11:52 AM
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In Florida, Bush increased his vote total from 2,912,790 in 2000 to 3,964,522 in 2004 , a 36% increase. Democrats increased their vote total in Florida from 2,912,253 to 3,583,544, a 23% vote increase. Given the number of people voting, it would take a very large number of new registered voters for the Democrats to really change things down there. They would probably have a better chance if they could find a way to draw more Republicans and independents away from McCain.
McCain has a clear advantage with voters over the age of 60. Florida has a large popular over 60 and they vote in higher percentages than any other age group. Most people in Florida support offshore drilling like McCain. Florida also has a large number of veterans, another group that McCain has a strong lead with. Also, active military personal, especially officers, often choose Florida as their home state(even though they don't actually live there), another voting block where McCain has a clear lead. |
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#38 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,602
Local Time: 04:52 AM
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I think I'll post something very important
(I saw it on Drudge ![]() * worth 10 FYM bonus points |
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#39 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,602
Local Time: 04:52 AM
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![]() "It would be a disgrace and a humiliation if Barack Obama does not win." Woody Allen - elitist, celebrity |
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#40 | |
Blue Crack Supplier
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 34,032
Local Time: 07:52 AM
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a forward i got today:
__________________Quote:
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