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Old 12-14-2007, 02:27 PM   #141
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Isn't it more "the law of having nothing to say" in this case?
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Old 12-14-2007, 03:34 PM   #142
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Who will he endorse?


dbs
Huckabee, I'd guess

Something tells me he's not the biggest Romney fan.

or McCain, but to save himself embarassment, I'd think he would endorse one of the 3 guys who can actually win the nom. Mitt, Rudy or Hickaboo.
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Old 12-14-2007, 03:48 PM   #143
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I think he's mad at Huck too.

Thompson camp makes mock apology to Huckabee
StoryDiscussionFont Size: Default font size Larger font size By Times Des Moines Bureau | Friday, December 14, 2007 | No comments posted

After Mike Huckabee apologized for a remark about Mitt Romney’s Mormon faith, the campaign for Fred Thompson issued its own sarcastic apologies Thursday.

“We apologize for pointing out that as governor of Arkansas, Huckabee offered in-state tuition to illegal immigrants. That’s something he’d probably just as soon no one talk about,” the statement said.

The campaign also says Huckabee does not like to talk about tax increases he approved.

“We apologize for referencing that 47 percent tax increase Huckabee imposed on Arkansas taxpayers when he was governor. That must be really awkward for him, now that he’s running in a GOP primary election,” the Thompson campaign statement said.

Huckabee’s Arkansas record has come under severe scrutiny since he climbed to the top of the polls.

He has said his actions on taxes and immigration were in response to unique situations in his state and do not reflect how he would act on those issues as president.

Huckabee spokesman Eric Woolson could not be reached for comment.





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Old 12-14-2007, 04:15 PM   #144
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The latest national poll, by American Research Group, has the following for the Republicans:

Giuliani 21%
Huckabee 21%
McCain 18%
Romney 16%
Thompson 6%


For the Democrats:

Clinton 41%
Obama 22%
Edwards 13%
Biden 5%
Richardson 3%


McCain still has a chance and there is a rumor that Thompson will endorse McCain for the nomination, which is smart since McCain is the only Republican candidate with a serious chance of beating Clinton. A Giuliani nomination would likely lead to a 3rd party run by someone that would hurt his general election chances. Huckabee is probably too conservative for the center of the country and when asked about the latest NIE, he did not know that the reporter was talking about. Despite Romney's wealth and lead in New Hampshire, the Republican base does not seem to really like him. With McCain, Republican base would have someone who is solidly pro-life, unlike Giuliani, and has never flipped flopped on the issue like Romney, and with 50 years of experience on National Security and Foreign Policy, has far and way the most experience and impressive resume out of anyone running for President in the last 20 years. But because of McCain's stance on immigration as well as surprising residual opposition from the 2000 primaries, McCain will have a serious uphill battle in winning the nomination. After Iowa and New Hampshire, a 3 way even split between Giuliani, Huckabee, and Romney, in the later states could be just enough for McCain to win some marginal victory's.

Some are discussing the possibility that the Republican race could go all the way to the convention, which could contrast sharply with the Democratic race if Clinton comes out on top early and that race is over by February 6. It is interesting to think what impact such a situation would have on the general election in November.
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Old 12-14-2007, 04:21 PM   #145
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i think national polls don't mean much.

what's telling are the Iowa polls.

Obama is now 6 points ahead in Iowa. i think Hillary's in trouble. she's still got the money and the organization, but Obama has got the momentum.

i also welcome the resurgence of McCain, since he seems like the only adult running for the GOP. though i think his national popularity is due more to name recognition than anyone who's been paying attention like the voters of Iowa and New Hampshire who've been bombarded with this stuff for months. and he's seriously damaged himself with the Iraq war, and this:

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Old 12-14-2007, 04:25 PM   #146
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Father's Abandonment Molded Obama
Dec. 14, 2007(Washingtonpost.com) This story was written by Kevin Merida as part of a Washington Post series of profiles of the leading presidential candidates.

Sometimes the trigger will be a newspaper story he is reading about Africa. Or he may spot a group of boys on a street corner on the South Side of Chicago and think that one or more of them "could be me, they may not have a father at home." At other moments, he will be playing with his daughters -- Malia, 9, and Sasha, 6 -- and begin to wrestle with what kind of father he has become, what a career in politics has meant to their lives and how to guard against his father's mistakes.

Thoughts of his father "bubble up," as Barack Obama puts it in an interview, "at different moments, at any course of the day or week."

"I think about him often," he says.

He last saw his father in 1971, when he was 10 years old. Remarried and living in his native Kenya, Barack Obama Sr. sent word that he wanted to visit his son in Hawaii over Christmas.

To the son, he had become a ghost, an opaque figure hailed as brilliant, charismatic, dignified, with a deep baritone voice that reminded everyone of James Earl Jones. All the boy knew was that his father had gone off to study at Harvard and never come back. Now, the old man would put flesh on the ghost.

On the day his father arrived, young Barack, known as Barry then, left school early and headed toward his grandparents' apartment, his legs leaden, his chest pounding. He nervously rang the doorbell. His grandmother opened the door, and there in the hallway was a dark, slender man wearing horn-rimmed glasses and sporting a blue blazer and scarlet ascot.

"He crouched down and put his arms around me, and I let my arms hang at my sides," the son recalled in "Dreams From My Father," a soul - baring memoir rare for a politician, written long before Obama contemplated a run for the White House.

"Well, Barry," his father said. "It is a good thing to see you after so long. Very good."

For a month, the father hung around, speaking to his son's fifth-grade class, taking the boy to a Dave Brubeck concert, but never quite reestablishing himself. The trip's pivotal moment came one night as Barry prepared to watch "How the Grinch Stole Christmas," the annual Dr. Seuss special. The father said the boy had watched enough television and insisted that he go to his room to study. Barry's mother and grandparents intervened in what became a heated family argument. But they proved no match for the strong-willed father, who in an instant had reclaimed the paternal role he had long ago abdicated.

Barry went to his room, slammed the door and "began to count the days until my father would leave and things would return to normal."

* * *

That visit set in motion a journey to make sense of his father, so that he could make sense of himself. It was the last time he would ever see his father, whose squandered promise and abandonment of his son have molded the man who is now running for president.

When he talks today about his father's desertion, Obama frequently summons a quotation that he believes explains how it directed him. "Every man is either trying to make up for his father's mistakes or live up to his expectations," he says. Until recently, he thought it came from Lyndon B. Johnson, who had his own unresolved issues with his father.

At one point in the campaign, Obama asked an aide to call Robert A. Caro, the preeminent Johnson biographer, to check. Caro said no, the quote was not from Johnson. The biographer was reminded, though, of something Johnson's brother had told him. The most important thing to Johnson, the brother had told Caro, was "not to be like Daddy," whom LBJ had once idolized but who later lost the family ranch and became a laughingstock.

Not to be like Daddy.

"I think he sees this as a challenge every day, that I want to do better than my father," says former federal judge Abner Mikva, a longtime Obama mentor.

When you grow up without a father, Michelle Obama says of her husband, you think about what you may have missed. "At some level, you wonder," she says. "You wonder all the time: Who would I be if I had my father in my life? Would I be a better person?"

Uncertainty crowds your mind about your own abilities. As Obama wrote in "The Audacity of Hope," his 2006 bestseller, "of all the areas of my life, it is in my capacities as a husband and father that I entertain the most doubt."

It is the reason why Dan Shomon, for many years Obama's top political aide in Illinois, urged him not to run for the U.S. Senate in 2004. "I think you're going to feel guilt about your kids," he told his boss, to no avail.

Obama hasn't found a way to reconcile his desire to be the father he never had with the long absences required of a presidential candidate. He attends parent-teacher conferences and dance recitals, and he structures his campaign day to always include a call to his daughters. But as his wife notes, "they are sometimes not ready to receive you when you call, and he has to suck that up."

"It's a struggle not just for him but for me," she says, adding that they have concluded that there is great value to their daughters in having a father with the ambition to be president. "One thing I learned from Barack is there is not one right way to parent."

Men often long for their fathers' approval, to shine in their fathers' light. Obama is asked how he feels about his father today, the dominant emotion. Regret? Unhappiness? Anger?

"I didn't know him well enough to be angry at him as a father," Obama says. "Mostly I feel a certain sadness for him, and the way that his life ended up unfulfilled, despite his enormous talents."

* * *

Barack Hussein Obama Sr. grew up herding goats in the remote village of Alego, Kenya. He belonged to the Luo tribe, one of the nation's largest. Bright and enterprising, he became in 1959 part of the first large wave of African students to study abroad. With a scholarship to the University of Hawaii, the 23-year-old quickly fell into a small group of graduate students who met on Friday evenings to eat pizza, drink beer, and talk world politics and economics.

"He was an intellectual in every sense of the word," recalls Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii), who was part of the inner circle. "He was the sun, and the other planets revolved around him."

It wasn't long before Obama brought another planet into their orbit, an 18-year-old white freshman from Wichita, Stanley Ann Dunham (so named because her father had wanted a boy). In late 1960, despite concerns from both families, Obama and Dunham were married. On Aug. 4, 1961, Barack Hussein Obama Jr. was born.

The fact that there was a marriage at all -- such interracial unions were banned in 22 states -- reflected, as Abercrombie saw it, his friend's incredible confidence and daring, traits the younger Obama would later display as a politician. But the marriage did not last long. When Obama won a scholarship to study at Harvard in 1963, and didn't have the money to take his young family with him, some were not surprised that he didn't return. Abercrombie sums up the reason in a single word: ambition.

"His ambition was to be a force in Kenya, to fulfill the drive that he had to make a difference in Kenyan life and perhaps even in African life. And don't forget, this is young love -- or maybe passion is closer to it. And passions can burn out."

It was Ann Dunham who filed for divorce in January 1964, citing "grievous mental suffering," according to court documents. Whatever anger she felt, she did not share it with her son. She made a point of telling Barry that his smarts, character and charm came from his father. Years later when he became upset about his father's behavior, she counseled against judging him too harshly.

The effect, as Obama's sister Maya Soetoro-Ng saw it, was to make him more independent. "It made him perhaps more introspective, perhaps more thoughtful than many people his age," says Soetoro-Ng, the daughter from Dunham's second marriage, to Lolo Soetoro, an Indonesian student she met at the University of Hawaii. Soetoro moved the family to Indonesia, where Barry lived for four years before returning to Hawaii to live with his grandparents and to attend the prestigious Punahou prep school. The Dunham-Soetoro marriage would not last either.

Every adult in Barry Obama's life, it seemed, was something of a rolling stone -- his grandparents had moved around, and his mother had hopscotched back and forth from Indonesia to Hawaii, getting her master's degree in anthropology and becoming an expert in microfinance. His father? He wrote occasional letters, on a single blue sheet, with messages that seemed disingenuous, sometimes baffling.

"Like water finding its level," the father once wrote, "you will arrive at a career that suits you."

It would take Barry years -- and a 1987 sojourn to Kenya -- to unravel the mystery of his father, who died in a car accident in 1982. The painful truth was that his father had a series of tangled relationships -- by some accounts, four wives and nine children. When he came to the United States, he left behind a pregnant Kenyan wife and a child. And when he returned to Kenya, he took with him an American woman he had met at Harvard, with whom he had a brief marriage and two children.

Professionally, he was prosperous enough to drive a Mercedes and generous enough that family members and friends knew where to go for handouts. But he often drank too much, stayed out too late, mouthed off too frequently. Though a respected economist in his country, he never reached the heights he set for himself.

"His ideas about how Kenya should progress often put him at odds with the politics of tribe and patronage," his son said in a 2006 speech in Nairobi, "and because he spoke his mind, sometimes to a fault, he ended up being fired from his job and prevented from finding work in the country for many, many years."

Abercrombie witnessed the crumbling of Barack Obama Sr. during a trip to Africa in 1968. He and a mutual friend from Hawaii stayed with their old pal in Nairobi. "It was clear to us how disappointed he was," Abercrombie recalls. "He was drinking. There was a bitterness in him, an edge."

Years later, after "Little Barry" had become an Illinois state senator and had unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Bobby L. Rush (D-Ill.) for a congressional seat, Abercrombie telephoned Obama to let him know that he had been a friend of his father's. Obama was grateful for the call, Abercrombie says, but left the impression that "he didn't want to pursue it."

Though both now serve in Congress and Abercrombie is an ardent supporter of Obama's presidential campaign, they have never discussed his dad. "We've never explored it, not even a little bit," Abercrombie says. "And that might have something to do with him."

Obama says he normally sees Abercrombie on Capitol Hill and the conversation is typically about politics and legislation. "It's certainly not out of a sense of avoidance."

But it is also true that Obama, after his election as the first African American president of the Harvard Law Review, wrote a 442-page memoir, published in 1995, that deeply explores his father's absence. It is rich with dialogue, precise recollections and emotion-laden self-analysis. It concludes with several chapters about his visit to Kenya, where he meets siblings, aunts, uncles, his grandmother and his father's ex-wives, and he finally understands the turmoil that consumed his father's life. At the end of the book, Obama is sitting between the graves of his father and paternal grandfather, weeping.

"When my tears were finally spent, I felt a calmness wash over me," he writes. "I felt the circle finally close. I realized that who I was, what I cared about, was no longer just a matter of intellect or obligation, no longer a construct of words. I saw that my life in America -- the black life, the white life, the sense of abandonment I'd felt as a boy, the frustration and hope I'd witnessed in Chicago -- all of it was connected with this small plot of earth an ocean away, connected by more than the accident of a name or the color of my skin. The pain I felt was my father's pain."

At some point, maybe enough is enough.

"I think that book was very cathartic for him, and it was a hard book to write," Michelle Obama says. "It was very hard for him to get all the pieces and make sense of them. But once you do that, you're done. I think he has clarity on that part of his life."

* * *

Those who know Obama say he didn't seem to need a replacement father.

He was always good at finding "different kinds of people he could learn from," says Jerry Kellman, a Chicago community organizer who worked with Obama for three years. Abner Mikva became one of those people, as did the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, his pastor, as did Illinois Senate President Emil Jones Jr., among others.

Kellman notes that "mentors very quickly ceased to be mentors with Barack, they became collaborators. . . . He was able to form intimate relationships with people, but they were friendships. He was not in search of surrogate fathers."

In a speech he gave just before Father's Day this year at a church in Spartanburg, S.C., Obama told some stories. One was about Frasier Robinson, his late father-in-law, whose multiple sclerosis was diagnosed when he was 30 and who made it to work every day at a water-filtration plant, even if he had to rely on a walker to get there. He sent two kids to Princeton. To Obama, a model father.

And then there was the story of 22-year-old Joshua Stroman, now a senior at Benedict College in Columbia, S.C., and president of the student body. His journey brought the church audience to its feet.

"Joshua never knew his father," Obama said, "and when he was very young, his mom and stepfather both died from cancer. . . . He was then taken in by family members who were involved with gangs and drugs. He experimented with that lifestyle for a bit, and his low point came when he went to jail at 18 years old. That's when he decided that his story would have a different ending."

Asked about his encounter with Obama months later, Stroman says he felt the pull of Obama's presence during the few minutes they shared in a holding room. He wanted more connection, but there was not enough time. It would have been "cool," Stroman says, to talk to Obama about what it meant to lose a father. "I guess we do share that link, and we're not the only ones."

W.E.B. Du Bois, Jackie Robinson, Ralph Ellison, Clarence Thomas, Al Sharpton, Shaquille O'Neal, Samuel L. Jackson. All are black men who grew up without their biological fathers. More than half of the nation's 5.6 million black boys live in fatherless households, 40 percent of which are impoverished.

"It's an enormous problem," Obama says, but one he has been willing to engage, including highlighting examples of good parenting, co-sponsoring a "responsible fatherhood" initiative in the Senate and sometimes prodding black men to do better.

"If we are to pass on high expectations to our children," he said in a 2005 speech on the South Side of Chicago, "we've got to have high expectations for ourselves. . . . It is a wonderful thing that you are married and living in a home with your children, but don't just sit in the house watching 'Sports Center' all weekend long."

Sometimes when Obama sees friends who have their fathers to rely on for support and advice, "I look at them with a little bit of envy," he acknowledges. But not remorse. The abandoned son is still working to carve out something positive from the legacy of the goat herder, who also dreamed of changing a nation.

A lot of Democrats offer programs, Obama says, but his personal history has given him something more: "the ability to connect with men who didn't have fathers themselves and to tell them, 'Your obligation is not to perpetuate that cycle of absence but to engage with your child.' " Maybe, he says, that's "something I can offer as a candidate and a president."
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Old 12-14-2007, 05:27 PM   #147
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Wow...

Thanks for sharing that, MrsSpringsteen. My respect for Obama's just gone up even further. I find the fact that he has family all over the world fascinating, and I think that can be of great benefit to him when it comes to dealing with world issues.

And I can't imagine what it'd be like to juggle being a good father to his kids as well as be a good leader-it's obvious he's working hard to handle both as best he can, and I admire that. I also like how he's trying to make sure other kids don't have to go through the same difficulties he did, and I hope his plans to help those children work out. I think his father would be proud of how he's doing, and so long as he continues on the path he's on now, I think he'll be just fine.

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Old 12-14-2007, 05:29 PM   #148
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511
i think national polls don't mean much.

what's telling are the Iowa polls.

Obama is now 6 points ahead in Iowa. i think Hillary's in trouble. she's still got the money and the organization, but Obama has got the momentum.

i also welcome the resurgence of McCain, since he seems like the only adult running for the GOP. though i think his national popularity is due more to name recognition than anyone who's been paying attention like the voters of Iowa and New Hampshire who've been bombarded with this stuff for months. and he's seriously damaged himself with the Iraq war, and this:



Actually the latest poll by Research 2000 has Obama up by 9 points in Iowa. But all the other latest polls have Clinton in the lead.

New Hampshire

FOX NEWS Clinton by 9 points

Michigan

Detroit News Cinton by 31 points

Nevada

American Res. Clinton by 27 points

South Carolina

CNN Clinton by 8 points

Florida

SurveyUSA Clinton by 30 points

California

PPIC Clinton by 24 points

Pennsylvania

Quinnipiac Clinton by 28 points

New Jersey

Quinnipiac Clinton by 34 points



But Obama has showed some real strength in South Carolina and New Hampshire winning some polls there in the past couple of weeks. Still, I don't think the Obama campaign can count on a Howard Dean Collapse by Clinton. I'm not sure if victories in the early states will translate into a bounce in the other states with all the primaries being so bunched together this time around. I think its tougher for any of the candidates that are still further behind in most states to catch up under these conditions. But will see, I agree that Obama has cracked Clinton's perceived invincibility, which is how things stood as recently as a month ago.






As for McCain, the impressive success of the surge in reducing violence and casualties in Iraq certainly benefits him since he was so out in front supporting it, while the leading Democratic candidates were still tied to an obviously wrong and outdated policy of having all US combat troops out of Iraq by March 31, 2008.

According to the latest gallup poll on the issue, 40% support keeping US troops in Iraq as long as they are needed. That percentage of support has been that way for 18 months now and could get closer to 50% if the rate of current success in Iraq continues in 2008. In addition, 71% say Iraq will be better off as a result of the U.S. invasion, while 24% say it will be worse off.

Some political analyst are predicting that Iraq might not even be a major issue in the 2008 election, especially if the leading Democratic candidates start to come around to the need for sustained intervention beyond January 2009. In one of the recent debates, all three top Democratic candidates would not guarantee that all US troops would be out of Iraq by 2013, infuriating the strongly anti-war base of the Democratic party.
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Old 12-14-2007, 06:53 PM   #149
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i won't touch the "surge" -- since an already ethnically cleansed and now nearly all walled in Baghdad is bound to have fewer casualties, especially when the books are totally cooked and it's nothing more than a pretense to provide an exit strategy and there's been *no* political progress to speak of -- but McCain is the only serious adult Republican out there, and would be the only one to have any appeals to independents. i've greatly admired how eloquently he's spoken out against the Bush torture policies, having been a torture victim himself, and he's refreshingly non-nativist when it comes to immigration.

given that a Democratic House and Senate are nearly a given in 2008, i could easily stomach a McCain presidency.

i had just heard on Hardball that Obama and HRC were now in a virtual tie in New Hampshire. and he's pulled ahead in SS. this is the race to watch, and in many ways it's inspiring -- a woman versus an African-American.
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Old 12-14-2007, 07:01 PM   #150
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in many ways it's inspiring -- a woman versus an African-American.
This has been exciting for me, too.
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Old 12-14-2007, 07:18 PM   #151
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I'll third that. I'm on my toes about those two, look forward to seeing how it all turns out for them.

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Old 12-14-2007, 09:59 PM   #152
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Quote:
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i won't touch the "surge" -- since an already ethnically cleansed and now nearly all walled in Baghdad is bound to have fewer casualties, especially when the books are totally cooked and it's nothing more than a pretense to provide an exit strategy and there's been *no* political progress to speak of --

i had just heard on Hardball that Obama and HRC were now in a virtual tie in New Hampshire. and he's pulled ahead in SS. this is the race to watch, and in many ways it's inspiring -- a woman versus an African-American.

Walls went up in Baghdad back in 2006, but Iraqi casualties according to multiple independent sources did not start to fall until substantial numbers of US surge troops began to arrive in the city in the spring, so the impact is without any doubt do to progress made by the US military. Despite the sectarian violence in Baghdad, it is not anywhere near as ethnically cleansed as Sarajevo and much of the rest of Bosnia as early as 1993. While such a large degree of ethnic cleansing suggest that violence should be reduced, in Bosnia, it continued without any let up until military intervention.

Not only has the US military succeeded in bringing down civilian casualties in Iraq, but it has also had great success, finally, at winning over Sunni tribes and communities that had at one time supported the insurgency. All of these area's, improving political situation at the local level, the improving security situation, and some signs of economic progress, have all contributed to huge reduction in US casualties which for the month of November were the lowest they had been since February 2004, nearly four years ago, in terms of both killed and wounded. US casualties for October and November 2007 are the lowest two month total for US casualties since the summer of 2003.

While Democrats are all hot and bothered about the latest NIE on Iran, they should remember what the last NIE on Iraq said about withdrawing from Iraq by March 2008 as many Democrats want, or some vague idea of some type of redeployment. Here are the final two paragraphs of the last NIE on Iraq from August 2007 that address those points specifically:

Quote:
We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent AQI from establishing a safehaven would erode security gains achieved thus far. The impact of a change in mission on Iraq's political and security environment and thourghout the region probably would vary in intensity and suddenness of onset in relation to the rate and scale of a Coalition redeployment. Developments within the Iraqi communities themselves will be decisive in determining political and security trajectories.
Quote:
Recent security improvements in Iraq, including success against AQI, have depended significantly on the close synchronization of conventional counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations. A change of mission that interrupts that synchronization would place security improvements at risk.
No book cooking there as that is the latest Estimate of 16 intelligence agencies in regards to Iraq, and the results since August only provide more support for that estimate. Even the ultra anti-war website Iraqbodycount has noted the decrease in civilian casualties during 2007.

There has been political progress at the local level. There are currently though no plans for any sort of a withdrawal, and the reduction in troops in early 2008 simply reflects the end point of the surge which will not be complete until August 2008. Even then, there will still be slightly more US troops on the ground in Iraq in August 2008 than in January 2007, just prior to the start of the surge. No real withdrawal, below pre-surge levels, will happen until conditions on the ground warrent it. That will be the case at least until the next administration takes office and the next administration, even if its a Democratic one, is unlikely to advocate a pre-mature withdrawal because they certainly do not want to be the ones to drop the ball on Iraq given the risk and consequences of doing so.

If there is going to be a Democrat in the White House in January 2009, hopefully it will be Clinton as there is likely to be more continuity between the Bush administration and a Hillary Clinton administration on Iraq policy specifically as well as other foreign policy issues, than with any of the other Democratic candidates.
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Old 12-14-2007, 10:20 PM   #153
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If we leave in 2009, civil war will break out.

If we leave in 2013, civil war will break out.

Frankly, the four extra years of deaths of our soldiers just to delay the inevitable is a tough argument to make.
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Old 12-14-2007, 10:36 PM   #154
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If we leave in 2009, civil war will break out.

If we leave in 2013, civil war will break out.

Frankly, the four extra years of deaths of our soldiers just to delay the inevitable is a tough argument to make.
Civil War won't break out provided the United States continues the current counterinsurgency, counter terrorist, and nation building operations. Eventually, political, military and economic progress will happen to a degree which will allow coalition forces to leave or greatly reduce their presence without there being any resumption of heavy violence. The goal of the 52,000 NATO force in Afghanistan is the same for that country which has just as many if not more ethnic fault lines than Iraq. A pre-mature withdrawal from Iraq is simply too risky, given the potential consequences for Iraq, the region, and the United States.
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Old 12-14-2007, 10:57 PM   #155
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Originally posted by Strongbow


Civil War won't break out provided the United States continues the current counterinsurgency, counter terrorist, and nation building operations. Eventually, political, military and economic progress will happen to a degree which will allow coalition forces to leave or greatly reduce their presence without there being any resumption of heavy violence. The goal of the 52,000 NATO force in Afghanistan is the same for that country which has just as many if not more ethnic fault lines than Iraq. A pre-mature withdrawal from Iraq is simply too risky, given the potential consequences for Iraq, the region, and the United States.


It is NOT the job of the American taxpayer or the American soldier to play referee in between two groups of people who hate each other and are willing to suicide bomb each other. It is not our problem.

Secondly, whether we leave or not people are going to hate us for starting the whole war. So it is bullshit to say that if we leave it is too risky for us. BULLSHIT. Our soldiers are dying over there every fuckin day. It is a risk if we stay there.

I'm a traditional Republican, I believe in lowest possible taxation and lowest possible spending. But all these neo-cons are such hypocrites. They want to trillions of dollars in this war to "protect" the lives of Americans. But they don't care about protecting the health of Americans.

Such hypocrites.
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Old 12-14-2007, 11:36 PM   #156
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You know, I used to have a lot of respect for McCain, but in the last few years since the last election, he's just said some bonehead things on issues such as AIDS in Africa that have made me question him.

He used to seem like the sane Republican alternative, and now I'm not sure of that.
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Old 12-14-2007, 11:57 PM   #157
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Quote:
Originally posted by Infinitum98




It is NOT the job of the American taxpayer or the American soldier to play referee in between two groups of people who hate each other and are willing to suicide bomb each other. It is not our problem.

Secondly, whether we leave or not people are going to hate us for starting the whole war. So it is bullshit to say that if we leave it is too risky for us. BULLSHIT. Our soldiers are dying over there every fuckin day. It is a risk if we stay there.

I'm a traditional Republican, I believe in lowest possible taxation and lowest possible spending. But all these neo-cons are such hypocrites. They want to trillions of dollars in this war to "protect" the lives of Americans. But they don't care about protecting the health of Americans.

Such hypocrites.
It would be a mistake to leave Iraq pre-maturely for four reasons 1. the potential for Al Quada to take advantage of the chaos it could create and finally replace the base they lost in Afghanistan from which they could launch new operations against Europe and the United States. 2. the regional instability it would create among countries that border Iraq, and the dangers of a regional war among these countries in area vital to global security because of the large oil reserves. 3. the humanitarian disaster it could create in Iraq for the people. 4. the potential for the return of another dictator out of such chaos many years later who may threaten Kuwaiti and Saudi Arabian oil reserves vital to the planets economy.

The American tax payer values security, safety, and the economic well being of the country which is tied to Persian Gulf security. That is why the American tax payer overwhelmingly supported the 1991 Gulf War, the efforts after that to disarm Saddam peacefully, as well as the military intervention to overthrow him once those efforts had obviously failed. Abandoning Iraq and the Persian Gulf region is not the way to insure a safe and prosperous United States or World.
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Old 12-15-2007, 12:02 AM   #158
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Quote:
Originally posted by Strongbow

A pre-mature withdrawal from Iraq is simply too risky, given the potential consequences for Iraq, the region, and the United States.
The fact is, that a "premature withdrawal" is undefinable. It just is. The definition of this war is very gray to begin with, so the result is even hazier. We can withdrawl tomorrow and have "peace", or we can withdrawl 3 years from now and have "peace", but it might not fix the overall problem.
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Old 12-15-2007, 12:04 AM   #159
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Quote:
Originally posted by Strongbow

the potential for the return of another dictator out of such chaos many years later who may threaten Kuwaiti and Saudi Arabian oil reserves vital to the planets economy.
How does a war guarantee this? Please tell me this, for I've been asking you for years.
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Old 12-15-2007, 12:13 AM   #160
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Quote:
Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar


The fact is, that a "premature withdrawal" is undefinable. It just is. The definition of this war is very gray to begin with, so the result is even hazier. We can withdrawl tomorrow and have "peace", or we can withdrawl 3 years from now and have "peace", but it might not fix the overall problem.
Not according to the August 2007 NIE on Iraq which said the following:

Quote:
We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent AQI from establishing a safehaven would erode security gains achieved thus far. The impact of a change in mission on Iraq's political and security environment and thourghout the region probably would vary in intensity and suddenness of onset in relation to the rate and scale of a Coalition redeployment. Developments within the Iraqi communities themselves will be decisive in determining political and security trajectories.
Quote:
Recent security improvements in Iraq, including success against AQI, have depended significantly on the close synchronization of conventional counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations. A change of mission that interrupts that synchronization would place security improvements at risk.
The fact that the leading Democratic candidates recently would NOT promise to have all US troops out of Iraq by 2013 shows that they might be gradually coming around to Bush's and McCains idea's for future US policy on Iraq.

Leaving before Iraq has a military that can provide for its own internal and external security, an economy that is moving forward, and a political situation that has reached a point of stability that will not evaporate as or once the United States leave, is the definition of a pre-mature withdrawal. Such a withdrawal only serves the interest of Al Quada and those wanting to harm Iraq and the region.
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