deep
Blue Crack Addict
This seems about right
http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=8875160
Early odds in U.S. presidential race
By Albert R. Hunt
Bloomberg News
Sunday, December 23, 2007
The gates are about to open for the American presidential race. The early odds, if history is an indicator, will be close to the mark.
Looking at bookmakers in Las Vegas and London, and the crystal balls of a few seasoned political practitioners from both parties, a clear line has emerged.
The fundamentals - the country's mood, the political cycle, the likely shape of the economy and the movement of certain constituencies like Latinos and young voters - all tilt Democratic.
Thus, lay down 7 to win 5 on a Democrat's taking the presidential oath of office 13 months from now, 2 to 1 that it's a Republican, and 20 to 1 on an independent or third-party candidate.
The odds for the Democrats to win the presidency include:
HILLARY CLINTON: 3 to 1.
BARACK OBAMA: 3.5 to 1.
JOHN EDWARDS: 10 to 1.
Of Senators Christopher Dodd and Joseph Biden and Governor Bill Richardson, - the rest of the field combined has odds of 40 to 1.
The Republican calculations are dicier:
MITT ROMNEY: 5-to-1 odds.
JOHN McCAIN: 8-to-1 odds he faces.
RUDOLPH GIULIANI: 10 to 1.
MIKE HUCKABEE: 12-to-1 shot.
FRED THOMPSON: 20 to 1.
The odds on any other Republican are 25 to 1,
In 8 of the past 10 elections, the party that settled its nomination first won the presidency in November.
http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=8875160