US 2008 Presidential Campaign/Debate Discussion Thread - Part III

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This seems about right



Early odds in U.S. presidential race

By Albert R. Hunt
Bloomberg News

Sunday, December 23, 2007
The gates are about to open for the American presidential race. The early odds, if history is an indicator, will be close to the mark.

Looking at bookmakers in Las Vegas and London, and the crystal balls of a few seasoned political practitioners from both parties, a clear line has emerged.



The fundamentals - the country's mood, the political cycle, the likely shape of the economy and the movement of certain constituencies like Latinos and young voters - all tilt Democratic.

Thus, lay down 7 to win 5 on a Democrat's taking the presidential oath of office 13 months from now, 2 to 1 that it's a Republican, and 20 to 1 on an independent or third-party candidate.

The odds for the Democrats to win the presidency include:

HILLARY CLINTON: 3 to 1.

BARACK OBAMA: 3.5 to 1.

JOHN EDWARDS: 10 to 1.

Of Senators Christopher Dodd and Joseph Biden and Governor Bill Richardson, - the rest of the field combined has odds of 40 to 1.

The Republican calculations are dicier:

MITT ROMNEY: 5-to-1 odds.

JOHN McCAIN: 8-to-1 odds he faces.

RUDOLPH GIULIANI: 10 to 1.

MIKE HUCKABEE: 12-to-1 shot.

FRED THOMPSON: 20 to 1.

The odds on any other Republican are 25 to 1,


In 8 of the past 10 elections, the party that settled its nomination first won the presidency in November.

http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=8875160
 
Oh dear....






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WASHINGTON — They're the odd couple again: George Bush and Hillary Clinton, the most admired man and woman in America.

Though they stand on opposite sides of a political divide, the Republican president and the Democratic senator from New York are sharing the honor for a sixth straight year, according to a USA Today-Gallup poll.

They didn't win by much. Oprah Winfrey and Clinton's husband, former president Bill, were right behind.

When people were asked to name the man they most admire, 10 percent picked Bush, his lowest figure in the seven years he has been president. Bill Clinton got 8 percent within the poll's margin of sampling error while Nobel Prize winner and former Vice President Al Gore had 6 percent and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a presidential hopeful, was chosen by 5 percent.

Whoever is president has won the most-admired title every year since 1981.

Sen. Clinton, hoping to be president-elect by the time of the next poll, was named by 18 percent as the most-admired woman, the 12th time she's been in the top spot. Talk show host Winfrey came in a close second with 16 percent. First lady Laura Bush and actress Angelina Jolie were each selected by 3 percent.

The poll, released Wednesday, asked participants an open-ended question, allowing them to respond with any names that came to mind. The rest of the votes were spread among a wide variety of government figures, movie stars, friends and relatives. Queen Elizabeth II was in the top 10 for a record 41st time.

The poll of 1,011 adults was taken between Dec. 14 and 16 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
 
The Republicans are becoming unhinged in Iowa.

In the last weekend before the Iowa caucuses, the Republican presidential candidates are bloodying the field with a blizzard of negative attacks, showing the strains of a wide-open and unpredictable race.

Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Senator John McCain are involved in what amounts to an elaborate pool-hall strategy that relies heavily on bank shots to win as their campaigns struggle for primacy both here and in New Hampshire.

Mr. Huckabee, after stumbling Friday over several statements about Pakistan, unloaded today on Mr. Romney.

“If a person is dishonest in his approach to get the job, do you believe he will be honest in telling you the truth when he does gets the job?” Mr. Huckabee said at a campaign stop in Osceola, Iowa.

And in an assist to Mr. McCain _ Mr. Huckabee would love for Mr. McCain to block Mr. Romney from winning in New Hampshire _ Mr. Huckabee added that he was escalating his attacks on Mr. Romney in part because Mr. Romney had the nerve to disparage Mr. McCain, “an American hero.”

“It is enough to attack me, but now to attack John McCain, it is like Mitt doesn’t have anything to stand on except to stand against, and I am saying enough is enough,” Mr. Huckabee declared.

In a bit of political jujitsu, Mr. Huckabee put out a commercial to that effect, saying of negative campaigning: “enough is enough” even as he slammed Mr. Romney. He also put out a spot highlighting Mr. Romney’s reversal of positions on abortion.

By contrast, the Democratic candidates were engaged in more polite campaigning, as Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Senator John Edwards fanned out across Iowa with last-minute appeals to turn out supports on caucus night this Thursday."

Read the rest of it here.
 
You know what I would LOVE to see?

A convention, for either party, where it really does come down to who has the most delegates, jockeying, campaigning (at the convention), like the olden days of politics. That would be fun, but I doubt that'd happen in this age of endless campaigns.
 
U2democrat said:
You know what I would LOVE to see?

A convention, for either party, where it really does come down to who has the most delegates, jockeying, campaigning (at the convention), like the olden days of politics. That would be fun, but I doubt that'd happen in this age of endless campaigns.

You could have seen it last year if you followed Canadian politics. :)
 
U2democrat said:
You know what I would LOVE to see?

A convention, for either party, where it really does come down to who has the most delegates, jockeying, campaigning (at the convention), like the olden days of politics. That would be fun, but I doubt that'd happen in this age of endless campaigns.

The last great convention was JFK in 60.
 
U2democrat said:
Well I'm sorry our news networks didn't carry what I'm sure was a nailbiting Canadian political convention!

Funny thing is, I actually had to watch it online myself!
 
U2democrat said:
You know what I would LOVE to see?

A convention, for either party, where it really does come down to who has the most delegates, jockeying, campaigning (at the convention), like the olden days of politics. That would be fun, but I doubt that'd happen in this age of endless campaigns.

Me too!
 
Obama's too nice to be President? That's a new one

NY Times
December 30, 2007
Candidates Step Up Attacks in Iowa
By JULIE BOSMAN and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

BOONE, Iowa — The presidential candidates spent the last Sunday before the Iowa caucuses attending church services and staging big rallies to make last-minutes appeals as new polls suggested tightening races in both the Democratic and Republican fields.

With three Democrats scrambling for the lead in Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Thursday, the candidates tried to paint their opponents as flawed for the challenges facing the nation.

Former Senator John Edwards, continuing a line of attack, suggested that Senator Barack Obama is too “nice” for the presidency.

“You can’t nice these people to death,” he said, referring to insurance companies and drug companies. “You’d better send somebody into that arena who’s ready.”

Senator Obama spoke for nearly two hours at a high school in Knoxville, where he took on — if not quite by name — Bill Clinton, who previously suggested that electing Mr. Obama was a risky role of the dice.

“Let me tell you something,” Mr. Obama countered on Sunday, “the real gamble is having the same old folks doing the same old things against and expecting a different result. That is not an approach we can afford.”

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who spent the day campaigning in four towns across southeastern Iowa, attended services with her daughter, Chelsea, at Corinthian Baptist Church, and then flew to Vinton for her first campaign appearance. (Her husband was en route through the fog to a campaign appearance in Sergeant Bluff.)

A McClatchy/MSNBC poll found Mr. Obama, Mr. Edwards and Mrs. Clinton essentially in a three-way dead heat among likely caucus-goers. The poll found a similar dynamic in the Republican field, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee tied with former Massacusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and others lagging behind.

The spotlight in the Republican field continued to be on Mr. Huckabee, who nevertheless had a quiet Sunday beyond his morning appearance at a church service.

On Saturday, Mr. Huckabee unveiled a pugnacious stump speech, tearing into the credibility of Mr. Romney, the Bush administration’s handling of the war and “East Coast establishment Republicans” in general.

On Sunday, Mr. Huckabee continued his barrage of attacks on the credibility of Mr. Romney as they head into the Iowa Republican caucus. Defending his characterization of the Bush administration’s “arrogant bunker mentality” toward the Iraq war, Mr. Huckabee accused Mr. Romney of hypocrisy for demanding an apology to the administration.

“He himself had talked about the major mistakes that had been made by the administration,” Mr. Huckabee said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “He demanded of me an apology, but he didn’t demand of himself an apology for also being critical, as have most Republicans.”

Mr. Huckabee then attended an early service of the Cornerstone Family Church in Des Moines. When parishioners later found unsigned fliers on their car windshields criticizing Mr. Huckabee for failing to veto legislation authorizing video poker machines in Arkansas and for accepting a speaking fee from a company involved in stem-cell research. It is impossible to know how widely these fliers were distributed, but other large evangelical churches in the area reported their appearance as well.

Mr. Romney campaigned in eastern Iowa and seemed noticeably more confident on Sunday, choosing to take questions from reporters in Columbus Junction after declining to do Saturday.

“Two or three weeks ago, the polls said he was ahead by over 20 points,” Mr. Romney said of Mr. Huckabee. “Now the polls are saying we’re virtually tied. It looks to me like we are doing pretty well.”

Rudolph W. Giuliani wrapped up his final campaign swing here in Mount Pleasant on Saturday night and left, with no plans to return to the state before the caucuses.

His campaign began re-branding Mr. Giuliani as the candidate of religious conservatives, or values voters, handing out glossy pamphlets featuring the endorsement from the Rev. Pat Robertson and a quotation from Mr. Giuliani in large letters: “My belief in God and reliance on His guidance is at the core of who I am.”
 
Now this could make things very INTERESTING: :yes:

bloom1.jpg



Bloomberg Prepares to Run

Monday, December 31, 2007 12:39 PM

By: Newsmax Staff Article Font Size



New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is seriously moving toward a decision to run for president as an independent in 2008 — and his aides are already laying the groundwork for a Bloomberg campaign.


Next weekend Bloomberg will join Democratic and Republican statesmen at the University of Oklahoma in an effort to push major party candidates into renouncing partisan gridlock.


Former Sen. David Boren of Oklahoma, one of the organizers of the gathering, told the New York Times that if major party candidates did not formally embrace bipartisanship within two months, “I would be among those who would urge Mr. Bloomberg to very seriously consider running for president as an independent.”


Another scheduled attendee at the Oklahoma meeting, Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, has said he would consider being Bloomberg’s running mate on an independent ticket.


As Newsmax has reported, several Bloomberg advisers have been quietly feeling out potential campaign consultants regarding their availability should the mayor decide to run.


Patrick Brennan, political director of Bloomberg’s 2005 re-election campaign, has resigned his position as commissioner of the city’s Community Assistance Unit to spend more time exploring Bloomberg’s possible national campaign, according to the Times.


Bloomberg has consistently insisted that he has no plans to run for the White House. But in private talks with friends and associates, he has suggested he would give serious thought to a run if the opposing major party candidates are poles apart — for example, if Mike Huckabee is the GOP candidate and is opposed by Barack Obama or John Edwards.


In that case, Bloomberg might decide “those candidates are vulnerable to a challenge from a pragmatic, progressive centrist, which is how he would promote himself,” the Times observes.


The process for launching an independent campaign formally begins on March 5, when third-party candidates can begin circulating nominating petitions in Texas. Both major parties may have settled on their candidates by then. The deadline for filing the petitions is May 12.


Aides have said that Bloomberg, a multi-billionaire, could invest as much as $1 billion of his own money in a White House campaign, which would mean he would “not have to spend a lot of time raising money and he would not have to make deals with special interest groups to raise money,” Boren said.


Political insiders say two things are certain regarding Bloomberg and the presidency — he will not resign his post as mayor to run, and he will not enter the campaign unless he believes he can win.


“Normally I don’t think an independent candidacy would have a chance,” said Boren, who is now president of the University of Oklahoma.


“I don’t think these are normal times.”


© 2007 Newsmax. All rights reserved
 
He's cute, that would work for me

INDIANOLA, Iowa (CNN) — He may be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound, but Superman can’t caucus.

Actor and Iowa native Brandon Routh is better-known for his role as Superman, but Sunday night he made a cameo appearance on the campaign trail, speaking on behalf of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama at a rally in Indianola, Iowa.

Routh says he is "sad" that he can't caucus any more because he no longer lives in the Hawkeye State, but he says he's "excited" by Obama's ability to unite the country. He also says he likes that Obama is not taking money from lobbyists or special interests.

Routh says he hopes his visit will empower people to caucus for Obama.

Routh is a former fashion model turned actor. He appeared on several television series before being cast as the title hero in the 2006 film Superman Returns.
 
U2democrat said:
You think he'd spoil for the Democrats?



Blommberg gets a lot of moderates and independents
that would be breaking for the Dems in this election.


Three states?

Lets say NY. Florida and Ohio.

So if Hillary gets in the high 30s or low 40s

and Bloomberg gets in the high teens or low 20s

all Romney needs to get is the core conservative in the low to mid 40s

especially in Florida, NY and Ohio

a couple of swing states is the whole ball game
 
MrsSpringsteen said:
He's cute, that would work for me

INDIANOLA, Iowa (CNN) — He may be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound, but Superman can’t caucus.

Actor and Iowa native Brandon Routh is better-known for his role as Superman, but Sunday night he made a cameo appearance on the campaign trail, speaking on behalf of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama at a rally in Indianola, Iowa.

Routh says he is "sad" that he can't caucus any more because he no longer lives in the Hawkeye State, but he says he's "excited" by Obama's ability to unite the country. He also says he likes that Obama is not taking money from lobbyists or special interests.

Routh says he hopes his visit will empower people to caucus for Obama.

Routh is a former fashion model turned actor. He appeared on several television series before being cast as the title hero in the 2006 film Superman Returns.

Awww. As an Iowan this really warms my heart.
 
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