US 2008 Presidential Campaign/Debate Discussion Thread #6

[deep]

he is waiting for v p pick, to endorse

[LarryMullen's POPAngel]

If it starts snowing tonight I'll know he made it.

[deep]

Originally Posted by LarryMullen's POPAngel

Obama's in Detroit today.

Wonder if my mom's skered.

I hope he has a driver.

He is either angry or under the influence.

[namkcuR]

Al Gore is formally endorsing Obama.

[corianderstem]

Honest question: what difference does it make at this point? It's not like he was going to come out and be all "rah rah" for McCain.

[U2democrat]

It doesn't carry too much weight but now that it's finally happened it should give him a boost in fundraising and make him appear more legitimate to those who may still have lingering questions.


I made about 500 phone calls tonight to Virginia Democrats and I had this one woman who yelled in my ear a good 2 minutes about her frustration with the Democratic party, its rules, FL and MI, etc. etc., but in the end she said she didn't want a McCain presidency and she hopes Obama wins

[U2democrat]

The latest polling in Virginia:

Obama :45 (+1 from 5/8)
McCain: 44 (-3 from 5/8)
Undecided: 7

US Senate race:
Warner: 60 (+5 from 5/8)
Gilmore: 33 (-4 from 5/8)

That's the second poll to have Obama up (albeit slightly) in Virginia.

[sulawesigirl4]

Go Warner! He was the speaker at our uni's graduation this year. heh. Could this be one race in which the coattail effect works backwards?

[U2democrat]

Originally Posted by sulawesigirl4

Go Warner! He was the speaker at our uni's graduation this year. heh. Could this be one race in which the coattail effect works backwards?

It could very well

The problem is with the polls is that there are a lot of volunteers have become complacent about Warner and feel like not as much needs to be done, but Warner ain't sitting around on his lead, he's out there working hard so I tell volunteers that they need to work hard too It's going to be a big year for us Virginia Democrats.

[Irvine511]

what's significant about Gore is that, again, we had another 15-20,000 turnout to see BHO getting a rather routine endorsement.

ho-hum. only 15-20,000 people. could anyone else do this? other than U2?

and there seems to be a whopping 11 states in play. who's got the cash to play in all 11?


1. Virginia, 0.2%
2. Missouri, 0.3%
3. Nevada, 0.6%
4. New Hampshire, 1.0%
5. Michigan, 1.5%
6. Ohio, 1.6%
7. Indiana, 1.7%
8. North Carolina, 3.3%
9. North Dakota, 3.8%
10. Florida, 4.0%
11. Montana, 4.5%

and that's just in closeness. NH, MI, and OH are all blue for now. and if you break down the remaining states that like *outside* the 5 point margin, Obama has 252 EV and McCain has 157.

of course, all very early. but interesting stuff:

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: 538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-June

[deep]

Obama told the crowd that his former opponent, Sen. Clinton would be “at the forefront of bringing change in America” and joked about their hard fought campaign.

“Of course nobody told me the primary was going to last 15 months, that was a long primary,” he laughed, “I was planning to run for the '08 election, not the 2012 election."

I really will not blame Hillary supporters if they do not pull the lever for Obama.

[deep]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

and there seems to be a whopping 11 states in play. who's got the cash to play in all 11?

How many primary elections did Obama outspend Hillary 3-1 to 5-1 and still lose by double digits?



Axelrod and Solis can not cauci their way into the Whitehouse.

[U2democrat]

Primary and general elections are playing to different voters. You know that. Come on deep, do we really have to give you a crash course in Govt 101?

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by deep

I really will not blame Hillary supporters if they do not pull the lever for Obama.

this intractable, unapologetic, virulent sexism has got to stop!

[Diemen]

Originally Posted by deep

I really will not blame Hillary supporters if they do not pull the lever for Obama.

Oh puhleeze.

Yes, Obama really crossed the line with that one. Boy, what on Earth could he have been thinking, joking about the length of the primary. If I supported Hillary, that would clearly push me over the edge to voting for McCain even though his platform directly opposes Hillary's on many points.

You should be ashamed, Barack Obama. At long last, have you no decency, sir?

[anitram]

Originally Posted by deep

I really will not blame Hillary supporters if they do not pull the lever for Obama.

If you want to vote for McCain or write in Hillary, just do it. Your rationalizations and justifications are plain weird 9 times out of 10 now and I'm wondering how you even write half of the stuff with a straight face. Even the hardcore Hillary supporter at work (armed with a gigantic Hillary mug) wouldn't say most of the things that you say/insinuate. The reactionary tone is really something else. Maybe you're just being cheeky and I'm missing the plot here, though. Wouldn't be the first time.

[Strongbow]

'Danger Signs' as Clinton Supporters Resist Obama
Democratic Candidate Leads but Still Struggles to Win Over Key GroupsBy JAKE TAPPER
June 17, 2008
Sen. Barack Obama has emerged from his bruising battle for the Democratic presidential nomination with only a six point lead over Sen. John McCain and claiming his Republican rival has been getting a "pass" from the media.

A ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Obama, D-Ill., leading McCain, R-Ariz., by a margin of 48 percent to 42 percent. It is a surprisingly small lead considering that the incumbent Republican president George Bush is at record lows and public opinion overwhelmingly feels the country is on the "wrong track".


No Bounce, Resistance from Clinton Supporters
The poll indicates that Obama did not get the traditional "bounce" in the public's opinion by finally defeating Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and getting her endorsement as the Democratic presidential candidate.

While leading among young voters and other key demographics, ABC News chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulos saw what he called "danger signs" for Obama.

In an exclusive network interview with ABC News, Obama said that his long Democratic primary battle with Clinton, which wasn't settled until early June, spared McCain critical scrutiny.

"While we were doing that, John McCain basically was getting a pass, both from the media . . . as well as from other opponents. And so I think that explains it," said Obama of the close race.

It is an ironic accusation from Obama.

During the bitter Democratic fight, the Clinton camp repeatedly complained that Obama was getting a pass from the media.


Obama Targets Key Groups
Obama has been trying to shore up key components of the geographic and demographic components he will need to win the presidency.

He accepted the endorsement Monday night of former vice president and global warming guru Al Gore in Detroit. It was the second major endorsement Obama staged in the key state of Michigan, having announced the backing of former presidential contender John Edwards in Michigan as well.

Obama was trying to make up for lost time in the swing state because he had avoided Michigan during the primaries as the Democratic Party punished the state for holding its primary earlier than the party wanted.

Obama also tried to head off any inroads McCain might make among women voters by arguing on GMA that "on almost every single issue that's important to women, he [McCain] has been on the wrong side."

"You know, he's in favor of judges who would overturn Roe v. Wade. He has opposed equal pay," Obama said, and charged that McCain also fought a program to insure children and to protect women from discrimination.

Women, particularly married white women, however, may be a problem for Obama, according to the Washington Post/ABC poll.

It showed that McCain has a 20 point advantage over Obama among married white women, a group that George Bush also won in the last two presidential elections.

Stephanopoulos told GMA that the figure was a "danger sign" for Obama. "This is a huge gap that Obama has to close if he's going to do well."


Question of Experience
Obama faces an additional problem that only half of the voters saying he has the necessary experience to be president.

"If you look at the key question of experience, that may be what's holding him back," Stephanopoulos said. "Only 50 percent of voters say that Barack Obama has the experience to be president. A full 46 percent say, no, he doesn't have the experience . . . That's one of the reasons they are going on the foreign trips."

Obama has talked publicly about going to Iraq, but ABC News has learned that he is adding Afghanistan to his travel itinerary.

The crucial political battle appears to be shaping up around independent voters between the age of 30 and 64.

"Those middle of the road independent voters, they are breaking right down the middle," Stephanopoulos said. "This is going to be a key battleground for both campaigns going into November."

While Obama runs well among younger voters, they are not always reliable when it comes to showing up at the polls. Meanwhile, he is 12 points behind McCain among the more reliable older voters.

In addition, nearly a quarter of Clinton's voters are holding back on their support, according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll.

"If that number stays that high, it will be difficult for Barack Obama to win," Stephanopoulos said.

.

[Irvine511]

the perception of a horse race sells newspapers, ups website traffic, and increases television ratings.

i would expect nothing less than the creation of drama.

where's the reporting that Hispanics are breaking for Obama 62% to 28%? and compare this to the 40% that Bush got.

we need drama!

at least the good news is that the battle is going to be fought from the middle, with both candidates playing for independent, moderate voters instead of pandering to the know-nothing Christianist base of the party (who, as a credit to McCain, hate him anyway).

this just could be a well fought election decided upon actual issues. what a refreshing change from the GOP of 2004 who's message was, "if John Kerry is elected, terrorists will kill you."

[MrsSpringsteen]

Republican Huckabee says don't denigrate Obama
AFP
Wed Jun 18, 2:32 AM ET

Former US presidential contender Mike Huckabee urged his fellow Republicans on Wednesday not to denigrate Democrat Barack Obama, saying they should celebrate the historic moment of a black candidate.

"Republicans will make a fundamental if not fatal mistake if they seek to win the election by demonising Barack Obama," Huckabee told a news conference on a visit to Tokyo.

The former Arkansas governor said that, having grown up in the segregated South, he never thought he would see an African-American win the nomination of a major party for the US presidency.

"I do not want to have anyone misrepresent or miss the opportunity to celebrate what I think is a landmark achievement, not just for Barack Obama, but for the United States of America," he said.

The country was able "to get to a point where we did not see his colour but we truly saw his charisma, his message and what he brought to the campaign trail," Huckabee said.

Huckabee, who won the first nomination contest in Iowa on the back of support from evangelical Christians, said he hoped Republican John McCain would defeat Obama but urged his party to highlight policy differences and not race.

Huckabee said the troubled US economy would be the top campaign issue and doubted that Obama's race would come into play.

"When people are really hurting -- and they are right now -- they're not looking at a person's race," he said.

Huckabee declined comment on whether he wanted the vice presidential nomination, other than to say that McCain would be more likely to pick him if he chose to focus on winning over Southern and conservative voters.

"You can't accept an invitation to the prom until the football captain asks you. So I'm not going to go out and buy the outfit just yet," Huckabee said.

[Irvine511]

no one knows anything in June -- and note how this article plays up the whole "IT'S SOOOOOO CLOSE! OMG!! WHAT COULD HAPPEN! IT'S ANYBODY'S RACE!" angle when the facts really don't support this.

but then, this is a media that continues to believe McCain is a straight-talker who calls 'em as he sees 'em.

[q]Obama has narrow lead on McCain: Reuters poll
Wed Jun 18, 2008 10:27am EDT

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has a narrow 5-point lead on Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race, but holds a big early edge with the crucial swing voting blocs of independents and women, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Two weeks after clinching the Democratic nomination and kicking off the general election campaign, Obama leads McCain by 47 percent to 42 percent. That is down slightly from Obama's 8-point advantage on McCain in May, before Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York left the Democratic race.

But Obama holds a big 52 percent to 30 percent edge among independents and 51 percent to 36 percent among women -- two critical voting blocs that could help determine the winner in November's presidential election.

"Obama's significant lead among independents puts him over the top, and that's a problem for McCain," pollster John Zogby said. "McCain is going to have to appeal to independents in some way to win, and right now he has a lot of work to do."

Obama, 46, still must overcome questions about his relative lack of experience, the survey showed. More than half of likely voters agree with criticism the first-term senator from Illinois does not have the necessary experience.

Questions about McCain's age -- he will be 72 in August and would be the oldest person to become president if elected -- do not resonate as strongly with voters, the survey found. Nearly two-thirds disagreed with the idea that McCain's age should be a factor in the presidential race.

"The experience question is a hurdle for Obama, but so far voters seem to have other things on their mind like change," Zogby said. "Age is an issue for McCain, but it doesn't appear to be an overwhelming problem."

Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, triumphed in early June after a grueling five-month Democratic nomination fight with Clinton. McCain clinched the Republican race in March.

But Obama did not get a bounce in polls out of his victory. After the long nominating race voters are already familiar with the candidates and settling into a pattern, Zogby said.

"This race is starting out very close, and barring something dramatic is likely to stay close at least until near the end," he said.

McCain and Obama have clashed sharply on economic and security issues in the campaign's early stages. Obama has tried to link McCain to the policies of unpopular President George W. Bush and McCain has questioned Obama's judgment and experience.

OBAMA LEADS ON ECONOMY

The survey found voters gave Obama a narrow edge over McCain as a manager of the economy, 45 percent to 40 percent. Independents preferred Obama on the economy by 50 percent to 28 percent.

Obama's margin on economic leadership was down slightly from his 9-point advantage on McCain last month. McCain has criticized Obama for his plans to raise taxes on Americans who make more than $250,000 a year and to raise capital gains tax rates.

McCain led Obama among white voters, men, born-again Christians and high-income voters. Obama led among Hispanics, blacks, Catholics, young voters, suburban voters and union households. The two were essentially tied among voters over the age of 65.

Obama, an Iraq war opponent who has been labeled a liberal by Republicans, earned the support of about one-fifth of voters who identified themselves as conservative.

McCain, a former Navy pilot and Vietnam prisoner of war who has been a staunch advocate of the Iraq war, led 45 percent to 39 percent among families that include members of the armed forces.

"That a decorated hero like McCain, particularly a Republican, is not leading among that group by a huge amount is very significant," Zogby said. "That is really all about Iraq."

The inclusion of independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, who are both in the process of trying to add their names to state ballots, did little to change the shape of the presidential race.

When Nader and Barr were included in the survey, Obama still led McCain by 5 percent, 45 percent to 40 percent. Nader and Barr each gained 3 percent of the vote.

The national survey of 1,113 likely voters, taken Thursday through Saturday, had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.[/q]



so you see, the media isn't liberal. it isn't conservative. it's out to MAKE MORE MONEY. those are it's values. and there's more money to be made when the race is close than when the race isn't close. every little movement will be spun as if it will have an impact on the race *only* if it appears to be making the race tighter.

and for some perspective, the polls in June are notoriously bad at predicting what will happen in November.