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Old 06-23-2008, 11:09 AM   #221
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There was an interesting article in the Washington Post a few days that said almost 9 in 10 Republicans support McCain, while not quite 8 in 10 Democrats support Obama. I don't think that means that much, but interesting nonetheless. It also said that almost 1/4 of Clinton supporters currently support McCain.

Also, their current poll puts Obama up 48 to 42. Their poll at around this time four years ago put Kerry up 49 to 45.

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Old 06-23-2008, 11:26 AM   #222
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To me, head to head polls at this point in time don't mean diddly-squat.


What matters more are the polls that judge the public's mood...i.e. Is the country on the right or wrong track? Are you better or worse off than 4 years ago? etc. Those to me are a better read to determine which way people are leaning.
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Old 06-23-2008, 12:11 PM   #223
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There was an interesting article in the Washington Post a few days that said almost 9 in 10 Republicans support McCain, while not quite 8 in 10 Democrats support Obama.
And what were those Republican numbers a few months ago when Rush, Coulter, and so many others were saying they would vote for Hillary if McCain got the nom?

My point is time is needed for some to get over their "hurt feelings".
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Old 06-23-2008, 01:13 PM   #224
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altogether now: nobody. knows. anything.

[q]Barack’s Bounce

The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows the Democrat with a 15-point lead over McCain.
Michael Hirsh
Newsweek Web Exclusive
Updated: 3:37 PM ET Jun 20, 2008

Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

In the previous NEWSWEEK Poll, completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting him hard for the Democratic nomination, Obama managed no better than a 46 percent tie with McCain. But as pollster Larry Hugick points out, that may have had a lot to do with all the mutual mudslinging going on between the two Democrats. By contrast, in recent weeks Clinton has not only endorsed Obama but has made plans to campaign with him. "They were in a pitched battle, and that's going to impact things. Now that we've gotten away from that period, this is the kind of bounce they've been talking about," said Hugick.

The latest numbers on voter dissatisfaction suggest that Obama may enjoy more than one bounce. The new poll finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992, when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton's victory over Bush's father, incumbent George H.W. Bush. Overall, voters see Obama as the preferred agent of "change" by a margin of 51 percent to 27 percent. Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favor the Illinois senator by 66 percent to 27 percent. The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters.

Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP's poor reputation among many voters. Still, history provides hope for the GOP. Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George H.W. Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily. "Those results should give people pause," Hugick says, saying that a substantial number of voters, about 5 percent, have also moved into the undecided column. A significant improvement in the economy, or continued advances in Iraq—an issue McCain has identified with strongly as the senator who championed the "surge" first—could alter the Republican's fortunes.

For now, however, Obama is running much stronger at this point in the race than his two most recent Democratic predecessors, Sen. John Kerry and Vice President Al Gore, who both failed in their bids to win the White House. In a July 2004 NEWSWEEK Poll, Kerry led Bush by only 6 points (51 percent to 45 percent). In June 2000, Gore was in a dead heat with Bush (45 percent to 45 percent)—which is essentially where he ended up when that razor-thin election was finally decided.

Most other national polls have shown Obama with a 4 to 5 point lead over McCain so far. Random statistical error can explain some of the difference in poll results. The NEWSWEEK survey of 1,010 adults nationwide on June 18 and 19, 2008, has a margin of error of 4 points. But the latest evidence of his gaining ground goes well beyond that margin.

Obama seems to have built his margin in part by picking up a key slice of Clinton's support, including women. Women voters in the new poll prefer him over McCain by 21 points (54 percent versus 33 percent). Defections to McCain by Hillary Clinton supporters are also down significantly since she dropped out of the race and endorsed the Obama. In the new poll, registered Democrats and Democratic leaners who supported Clinton during the primaries now favor Obama over McCain by 69 percent to 18 percent. In last month's survey, Clinton supporters backed the Illinois senator by a significantly smaller margin, 53 percent to 34 percent. Registered independents have also moved toward Obama, backing him by a 48 percent to 36 percent margin after splitting about evenly in last month's poll.[/q]

Actually, most people know that this Newsweek poll is far off the mark. The last time someone won by more than 15 percentage points was in 1984 when Reagan won re-election.

No polling firm is perfect, but Gallup has tended to be the most accurate over the years and has been doing polling longer than any of the other polling firms. Currently Obama is up by 3 points in the latest Gallup poll, just a percentage point above the margin of error. Gallup's final prediction of the 2004 popular vote was closer than any other polling firm.
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Old 06-23-2008, 01:39 PM   #225
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Actually, most people know that this Newsweek poll is far off the mark. The last time someone won by more than 15 percentage points was in 1984 when Reagan won re-election.

No polling firm is perfect, but Gallup has tended to be the most accurate over the years and has been doing polling longer than any of the other polling firms. Currently Obama is up by 3 points in the latest Gallup poll, just a percentage point above the margin of error. Gallup's final prediction of the 2004 popular vote was closer than any other polling firm.



you still don't know anything. no one knows anything. it's only fools who wish they knew more than they did who are swallowing every sensationalistic storyline about a perceived horse race.

Newsweek had them tied in May. Gallup currently has Obama up 50 to 44.

but what matters, at this stage in the game, is not the national polls, nor even so much the polls in the swing states.

what matters, as U2democrat has accurately pointed out, is the overall feeling towards about the current direction of the country, and that's at it's lowest since the end of the Carter administration. also, 55% now identify as Democrats whereas only 36% identify as Republicans, and you can bet that a large portion of that 55% are young voters. so the future for the GOP is ever darkening. it seems that war, hate, and pandering to the willfully ignorant will only get you so far.
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Old 06-23-2008, 02:58 PM   #226
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To me, head to head polls at this point in time don't mean diddly-squat.


What matters more are the polls that judge the public's mood...i.e. Is the country on the right or wrong track? Are you better or worse off than 4 years ago? etc. Those to me are a better read to determine which way people are leaning.
Reagan asked that question against Carter (reelection in 1980)

Dole dare not ask it in 1996, Clinton probably did (again it was a reelection)


If 2000 were a reelection, than the answer was easy, we were much better off after 8 years of Clinton.


I just don't think this question applies the same way when it is not a reelection.

Obama has a lot of "unknowns".
When late deciders choose, they tend to go more with the known entity. You may recall this is what happened in the Dem primaries.
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Old 06-23-2008, 03:13 PM   #227
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The evolution of John McCain - Jun. 23, 2008

Fortune Magazine is running a profile on John McCain titled, "The evolution of John McCain." McCain's chief advisor, Charlie Black, is interviewed in the piece. Below is a choice quote from Black on why he thinks another terrorist attack on US soil would help McCain win the presidency.

On national security McCain wins. We saw how that might play out early in the campaign, when one good scare, one timely reminder of the chaos lurking in the world, probably saved McCain in New Hampshire, a state he had to win to save his candidacy - this according to McCain's chief strategist, Charlie Black. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December was an "unfortunate event," says Black. "But his knowledge and ability to talk about it reemphasized that this is the guy who's ready to be Commander-in-Chief. And it helped us." As would, Black concedes with startling candor after we raise the issue, another terrorist attack on U.S. soil. "Certainly it would be a big advantage to him," says Black.
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Old 06-23-2008, 03:36 PM   #228
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NY Sun

WASHINGTON — While this year's presidential campaign has been marked by historic firsts, the nominations of senators McCain and Obama will renew one surprising trend: For the fifth time in the last 35 years, America will have a lefty in the White House.

Both major party candidates are southpaws, contributing to a largely unexplained phenomenon that has vexed researchers and historians — and drawn notice from a federal judge destined for the Supreme Court. Though left-handers comprise just 10% of the population, they are dominating presidential politics.

Their recent success transcends ideology. Since 1974, presidents Ford, Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Clinton have all favored their left hands, while President Carter and the current President Bush are righties. The trait is also not exclusive to winning candidates: Vice President Gore is left-handed, as are past presidential contenders Robert Dole, John Edwards, Bill Bradley, and Ross Perot. A prominent New Yorker who flirted with a White House bid, Mayor Bloomberg, is a lefty.

Researchers who have studied handedness have found links to genetics and to brain function, but there is no prevailing theory to explain the plethora of left-handed commanders in chief in recent decades.

Yet the trend is more than a statistical anomaly, a professor of neurology and psychiatry at the University of California Los Angeles School of Medicine, Daniel Geschwind, said.

"It's definitely not an accident. The chance is less than one in a thousand," he said.

Before 1974, just two presidents were known definitively to be left-handed: James Garfield and Harry Truman.

Studies have shown that whereas righties favor the left hemisphere of their brain, which controls language, left-handers are more likely to have bilateral brain function, which could allow them to visualize problems more broadly and with more complexity. A higher percentage of mathematicians and scientists are left-handed, and the same is true for artists.

Bilateral brain function could relate to the social and interactive skills needed to be successful in politics, but not enough research has been done, Dr. Geschwind said.

Left-handedness also has proved a distinct advantage in certain sports, including tennis and baseball, where southpaws are prized both in pitching and batting.

At the same time, studies have suggested an increased prevalence of schizophrenia, autism, and bipolar disorder among left-handers.

Twins are more likely to be left-handed, research shows, and handedness has tended to run in families, although that was not the case for the elder Mr. Bush, a lefty, and his son George W., a righty.

A scientist at the National Cancer Institute, Amar Klar, has found another, more novel trait that may distinguish left-handers from right-handers: hair growth. "Handedness is related to the way the hair spins on the back of your head," he said in an interview.

His research shows that the whorl for right-handers curls clockwise in 92% of cases. In left-handers, the distribution is random, with half exhibiting a clockwise whorl and the other half spinning counterclockwise. Mr. Klar said he could spot a counterclockwise whorl from seeing Mr. McCain and Mr. Clinton on television and looking at the way they appear to comb their hair.

Researchers have long debated why left-handers have succeeded as a distinct minority group in a society dominated by right-handers. "People like to think there's something wrong with left-handers," a professor of psychology at University College London who has written a book on handedness, Christopher McManus, said.

Yet the percentage of left-handed people across the population has remained stable at between 8% and 10%, a statistic that stands in contrast to other animal species and argues in favor of certain advantages to being left-handed. "Something is keeping 10% of the population there," he said.

One theory to explain the success of left-handers in politics is that, at an early age, they recognize that they are different in a fundamental way from most of their peers, said Melissa Roth, the author of "The Left Stuff: How the Left-Handed Have Survived and Thrived in a Right Handed World."

"Their difference might be treated as a positive or a negative, a 'creative' asset or a failure to adapt, but either way they are aware that they are 'special,' and that's a trait psychologists find in many leaders," Ms. Roth said.

Still, some contend that the phenomenon of left-handed presidents is no more than a blip. An associate justice of the Supreme Court, Samuel Alito, even offered that argument — and drew criticism for doing so — in dissenting from a ruling that overturned a murder conviction of a black man who had been tried before an all-white jury. Justice Alito, then a member of the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, took issue with a majority opinion that said "an amateur with a calculator" could have figured out the appropriate percentage of black jurors in the county where the case was tried.

"Although only about 10 percent of the population is left-handed, left-handers have won five of the last six presidential elections," Judge Alito wrote. "Our 'amateur with a calculator' would conclude that 'there is little chance of randomly selecting' left-handers in five out of six presidential elections. But does it follow that the voters cast their ballots based on whether a candidate was right- or left-handed?"

The judge did not mention that in at least two of those elections — 1992 and 1996 — the voters did not have much of a choice: As in the coming election, the leading candidates were all left-handed.
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Old 06-23-2008, 04:05 PM   #229
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Fortune magazine has parallel interviews about the economy with John McCain and Barack Obama in the current issue, and the PR email they sent me highlights their answers to this question:

What do you see as the gravest long-term threat to the U.S. economy?

Obama: If we don't get a handle on our energy policy, it is possible that the kinds of trends we've seen over the last year will just continue. Demand is clearly outstripping supply. It's not a problem we can drill our way out of. It can be a drag on our economy for a very long time unless we take steps to innovate and invest in the research and development that's required to find alternative fuels. I think it's very important for the federal government to have a role in that process.

McCain: Well, I would think that the absolute gravest threat is the struggle that we're in against Islamic extremism, which can affect, if they prevail, our very existence. Another successful attack on the United States of America could have devastating consequences.
I guess he still hasn't learned a thing about the economy.

LAME.
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Old 06-23-2008, 04:07 PM   #230
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Well when you don't really know about the economy, just SCARE people.
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Old 06-23-2008, 04:57 PM   #231
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(Reuters) McCain disagrees with adviser on reported comment

2 hours, 11 minutes ago

Republican presidential candidate John McCain said on Monday he disagreed with a reported comment by political adviser Charlie Black that a September 11-type attack before the November election would benefit McCain.

"If he said that -- and I do not know the context -- I strenuously disagree," McCain told reporters at a news conference in Fresno.

Fortune Magazine said Black, in discussing how national security is McCain's strong suit, had said when asked about another terrorist attack on U.S. soil that, "Certainly it would be a big advantage to him."

McCain, asked about the magazine article at the news conference, did not sound familiar with the article.

"I cannot imagine why he would say it. It's not true," McCain said, adding that he has worked hard since the September 11 attack to prevent another such attack.

Black is one of McCain's most trusted political advisers.
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Old 06-23-2008, 05:02 PM   #232
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I guess he still hasn't learned a thing about the economy.

LAME.


and it can be fun to pretend that the two aren't totally related to one another.
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Old 06-23-2008, 05:17 PM   #233
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Black is one of McCain's most trusted political advisers.




Quote:

Black, interviewed by reporters as he stood outside McCain's fundraiser, said: "I deeply regret the comments. They were inappropriate. I recognize that John McCain has devoted his entire adult life to protecting his country and placing its security before every other consideration."
Mr Black is also distancing himself from the remarks
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Old 06-23-2008, 05:32 PM   #234
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Ten bucks says Olbermann does one of his so-called "special" comments on Black's remark.
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Old 06-23-2008, 05:34 PM   #235
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Well when you don't really know about the economy, just SCARE people.


Saying a terrorist attack would hurt our economy is scaring people?
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Old 06-23-2008, 05:40 PM   #236
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Saying a terrorist attack would hurt our economy is scaring people?
Uh, no-saying it is the gravest long term threat to our economy is scaring people. Contrasted to Sen Obama's answer, it's rather obvious. Vote for me so there won't be another terrorist attack so those Islamic extremists won't make gas 10 dollars a gallon. Nothing to do with our energy policy-no, not at all.
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Old 06-23-2008, 08:16 PM   #237
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Lynn Sweet: Obama at Florida fund-raiser says GOP will go after him because he is black. Pool report.



At a fund-raiser in Jacksonville, Fl., presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) said he expects Republicans to inject race into the campaign:

“The choice is clear. Most of all we can choose between hope and fear. It is going to be very difficult for Republicans to run on their stewardship of the economy or their outstanding foreign policy. We know what kind of campaign they’re going to run. They’re going to try to make you afraid. They’re going to try to make you afraid of me. He’s young and inexperienced and he’s got a funny name. And did I mention he’s black?"

---------

Disgraceful.

First off, this kind of nonsense will surely backfire on him. Saying stuff like this makes him appear as the victim, not a strong leader. Second, he himself denounces the so-called fearmongering that conservatives do, yet here he is doing the same thing. Notice how he clumps youth and inexperience, which are legitimate concerns about him, in with race. This is deliberate. He wants everyone to think that any attack directed at him is racially motivated- that it's impossible to say bad things about him without being a racist. Also, just like with the San Francisco "bitter" remarks, I've only been able to find audio of this- no video. This makes twice now. When the cameras are not around, we see who Obama really is and what he really thinks.

Have we heard Senator McCain say a peep about race in this campaign? No.

Playing the race card? Obama.
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Old 06-23-2008, 08:17 PM   #238
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Vote for me so there won't be another terrorist attack
And he says this where?
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Old 06-23-2008, 09:13 PM   #239
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And he says this where?
Come on, read the quote again...
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Old 06-23-2008, 09:17 PM   #240
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Lynn Sweet: Obama at Florida fund-raiser says GOP will go after him because he is black. Pool report.



At a fund-raiser in Jacksonville, Fl., presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) said he expects Republicans to inject race into the campaign:

“The choice is clear. Most of all we can choose between hope and fear. It is going to be very difficult for Republicans to run on their stewardship of the economy or their outstanding foreign policy. We know what kind of campaign they’re going to run. They’re going to try to make you afraid. They’re going to try to make you afraid of me. He’s young and inexperienced and he’s got a funny name. And did I mention he’s black?"

---------

Disgraceful.

First off, this kind of nonsense will surely backfire on him. Saying stuff like this makes him appear as the victim, not a strong leader. Second, he himself denounces the so-called fearmongering that conservatives do, yet here he is doing the same thing. Notice how he clumps youth and inexperience, which are legitimate concerns about him, in with race. This is deliberate. He wants everyone to think that any attack directed at him is racially motivated- that it's impossible to say bad things about him without being a racist. Also, just like with the San Francisco "bitter" remarks, I've only been able to find audio of this- no video. This makes twice now. When the cameras are not around, we see who Obama really is and what he really thinks.

Have we heard Senator McCain say a peep about race in this campaign? No.

Playing the race card? Obama.
He said Republicans, not McCain. The Republicans have already started this type of campaign. I get about 2 or 3 emails a week, who knows how many actual republicans or conservative leaning folks are getting.
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