US 08 Presidential Campaign General Discussion Thread #8

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by anitram

If Obama is the big bad wolf, does that make Palin one of the three little pigs?

what an incredibly sexist thing to say. women everywhere should be outraged.

poor Sarah.

i just know she'll get through this.

[Tiger Edge]

I like wolves.

They get such a bad rap.

[Irvine511]

poor Sarah. Obamawolves are trying to eat her babies.

We are ONE!!!

[yolland]

Originally Posted by Tiger Edge

As an aside: Am I remembering this wrong or did John McCain say that there would not be negative attack ads coming from him? Or maybe it was something about negative attack ads not working. Someone around here might have the quote handy...

I think maybe you mean this from his memoir?

Houston Chronicle, Aug. 30

"I responded by getting angry on the stump and running negative ads about my opponent that only raised the toxic level of the primary," McCain wrote in his memoir, Worth the Fighting For, co-authored with longtime aide Mark Salter. "We should have refuted the above-the-radar attacks in our own ads, challenged (Bush's) positions, and in my speeches stuck to the message of reform and patriotism."

ETA:

Or maybe this?

CNN, April 28 2008

I've pledged to conduct a respectful campaign and I've urged time after time various entities within the Republican Party to also do that.

Or this?

National Review, April 25

There are many differences between our parties and differences between myself and Senator Obama, and I want this race to be about those differences.

...I want the best kind of campaign and most positive kind of campaign.

The O'Reilly Factor, May 9

Well, look, I want to have a respectful campaign. That's what Americans really want.

[phillyfan26]

Originally Posted by 2861U2

I could say this exact thing about Obama. It's politics.

Unreal. Your candidate does this and suddenly it's politics?

Sometimes conservatives make me legitimately angry. This is one of those times.

Originally Posted by Irvine511

show me any Obama ad that has the same level of dishonesty as the two ads released by McCain yesterday.

ask better of your candidate. he is degrading you as a supporter.

:waits:

[mobvok]

Sarah Palin and the Republican party: what a bunch of complainers and whiners.

Whining about the biased media, whining about unfair attacks, whining about sexism. When Hillary Clinton I mean, Sarah Palin is talking to bad men like Robert Mugabe or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is she going to whine to the media about being treated unfairly by them?

[Tiger Edge]

Originally Posted by yolland

I think maybe you mean this from his memoir?

I feel the same way about negative ads as I do about trashing your opponent personally on television: It's uncalled for and unclassy. Both sides do it and it drives me up the wall. Is there really not much to your platform and you have to resort to ad hominem attacks then perhaps you shouldn't be running for president.

Too bad the honor system sucks.

I'm curious to see Obama's negative attack ads.

[Strongbow]

Here is the latest from GALLUP:

Gallup Daily: McCain 48%, Obama 43% Nine percent undecided in latest average

September 10, 2008

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds John McCain continuing to lead Barack Obama, 48% to 43% among registered voters.

The Sept. 7-9 average -- spanning interviewing conducted Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday -- finds little substantive change in the shape of the race compared to earlier this week, although each of the two candidate's level of support has dropped a point compared to the Tuesday's reported average. Nine percent of registered voters say they are undecided, refuse to state their preference, say they will vote for neither McCain nor Obama, or indicate they are voting for another candidate.

Gallup Daily: McCain 48%, Obama 43%

[Se7en]

^

i love it.

[diamond]

Then there's Joe Biden, supposedly the common man, the every man -in touch with his voters.

At a rally he was tipped that a state senator was there, so Joe being Joe ask the senator to "stand up" trouble was the senator was confined to a wheel chair.

Way to go Joe, way to know your constituents.

YouTube - Joe Biden Tells Chuck Graham to Stand Up

<>

[Strongbow]

RealClearPolitics HorseRaceBlog

By Jay Cost
« Thoughts on McCain's Speech | HorseRaceBlog Home Page

September 10, 2008
Obama On His Heels
This campaign has taken a surprising turn since the Democratic convention. Everybody is still talking about the Republican vice-presidential nominee.

Who would have predicted this just two weeks ago?

When I say everybody is talking about Governor Palin, I mean everybody. It's not just that Palin has excited the Republican base and intrigued the press corps. She's also gotten the notice of Barack Obama. The Democratic nominee has singled Palin out for criticism on earmarks in general and the "Bridge To Nowhere" in particular.

This is peculiar. Typically, a presidential nominee does not criticize his opponent's veep. This becomes doubly peculiar when we consider that just a week ago the Obama campaign indicated plans to ignore Palin altogether:

The Obama campaign has no silver bullet to use against the Palin (sic). Instead, Obama has decided to largely avoid directly engaging her and will instead keep his focus largely on John McCain and on linking the Republican ticket to President George W. Bush. The Obama campaign will leave Palin to navigate the same cycle of celebrity that Obama has weathered, and the same peril that her nascent image will be defined by questions and contradictions from her Alaska past.

The reason for the change must be what the ABC News/Washington Post poll found - a huge swing toward McCain-Palin among white women. This is a very important voting bloc, as the following chart makes clear:


The GOP improved it's showing among white men by 17 points between 1996 and 2004. Among white women it improved by 16 points. This is how an 8.5-point Republican defeat transformed into a 2.4-point Republican victory.

The ABC News poll that set tongues wagging has McCain up 12 among white women - about the same margin as the final result in 2004. I had been inclined to write those results off, as I figured a post-convention poll like that is not indicative of where the race is heading. However, the course correction of the Obama campaign inclines me to believe that there might be something going on here. On September 4th, his campaign said that it was not planning to directly criticize Palin. On September 8th, it released an ad directly criticizing her. You don't do that kind of 180 unless something is up.

The Obama campaign's decision to attack is a risky one. Negative campaigns are always tricky, but this one is especially so. To some degree, Palin has been treated unfairly since her debut as McCain's vice-president. What the McCain campaign wants to do is tie all criticisms of Palin to the unfair ones, and ultimately remind people of how Hillary Clinton was treated. Team McCain is especially eager to do this for anything that comes out of Obama's mouth - hence the "lipstick on a pig" spot, which in turn induced a response from Obama.

We can assign winners and losers in this little skirmish; we can decide who has truth on his side and who does not. But that misses the point. Here we have yet another day when the focus is on the GOP's youthful, smiling, attractive, witty, female vice-presidential nominee. And for yet another day our ears are filled with the sounds of the Democratic nominee decrying how unfair the Republicans are - as if only one side hits below the belt.



Ultimately, I'm not a huge believer in the importance of "winning" news cycles. I do think, however, that the battle for the news cycle is an exhibition of a campaign's ability to move its message. And it has become clear that the McCain campaign is better at this. This "lipstick on a pig" incident will probably not affect a single vote - but it shows that the McCain campaign is ready and able to defend any real gains it might have made among white women. Once again, it's doing a better job getting its message across.

Nobody would have predicted this on June 3rd. That was the day Obama boldly stood in the Excel Energy Center and proclaimed an exciting new moment in American politics. Meanwhile McCain, sweating profusely, stood in front of a green screen and gave a rambling, disjointed speech. The contrast in messages was stark. Three months later, it's just as stark - but now it's Obama that's sweating and McCain that's exciting. What a turnaround.

RealClearPolitics - HorseRaceBlog - Obama On His Heels



There is still light out there for the Democrats. The first post convention poll still shows them with a three point lead in Colorado and with Iowa and New Mexico certain to go blue this year, unless the Republicans can keep Colorado red, they will need to pick up a blue state from 2004 in order to win. Republicans can be impressed with polls showing they are up 7 points in Ohio, only behind by 2 in Pennsylvania, behind by 1 in Michigan and behind by 3 in Wisconsin. Curiously, the latest SurveyUSA poll in Washington State has McCain only behind by 4 points. No new poll yet for Oregon which tends to be more conservative than Washington. A new poll for New Hampshire is also needed considering how close that race had become before the conventions.

[Popmartijn]

Originally Posted by Strongbow

Republicans can be impressed with polls showing they are up 7 points in Ohio, only behind by 2 in Pennsylvania, behind by 1 in Michigan and behind by 3 in Wisconsin.

Regarding Ohio, that depends on which poll you're looking at. Two polls were held there shortly after eachother. One showed a small lead for Obama, the other the lead for McCain. Taken together, they're slightly in favour of McCain, though within error margins.
And interestingly, a post-GOP convention poll shows a tie in Florida (changed from a small lead by McCain).
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[diamond]

yes, i think mac needs to focus on col, nev, new mex, fla and maybe new hampshire.

theres a lot of time let, w debates to go thru as well.

<>

[Strongbow]

Originally Posted by Popmartijn

Regarding Ohio, that depends on which poll you're looking at. Two polls were held there shortly after eachother. One showed a small lead for Obama, the other the lead for McCain. Taken together, they're slightly in favour of McCain, though within error margins.
And interestingly, a post-GOP convention poll shows a tie in Florida (changed from a small lead by McCain).
Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

I think realclearpolitics has more recent updated polling:


RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

Just click on the state for the polling data.

[Popmartijn]

Originally Posted by Strongbow

I think realclearpolitics has more recent updated polling

Checking a couple of states, it looks like it depends. Some are a bit more recent, some not. And I have to say I prefer the way that Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily presents the data (also showing on the map if the polls show a clear lead or not). Though in the end they don't differ much.

[phillyfan26]

Diamond, at what point did you lose the ability to type in complete sentences?

[Diemen]

Originally Posted by anitram

That's a fantastic response.

I also notice a peculiar lack of voices rising in defense of these McCain ads & faux controversies. Perhaps because even his strongest supporters know he went too far? Though I also notice that most aren't quite maverick enough to stand up against them, either.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by Diemen

Though I also notice that most aren't quite maverick enough to stand up against them, either.

no, they want a culture war. 'cause some libruls think they're smarter than they are.

[Diemen]

CNN, April 28 2008

I've pledged to conduct a respectful campaign and I've urged time after time various entities within the Republican Party to also do that.

It appears that John McCain's word

doesn't mean much.

I wonder what pledges he would renege on

If he were President?

[yolland]

Originally Posted by phillyfan26

Diamond, at what point did you lose the ability to type in complete sentences?

He's always typed a lot of his posts in shorthand, so what.