US 08 Presidential Campaign General Discussion Thread #8

[Strongbow]

and most Americans who have any grasp of history and nuance know that not every action undertaken by the United States was successful, or necessary, and that there were disastrous operations and even whole wars that happened during the Cold War and we are still dealing with the blowback today.

it's a foolish American who looks at the end result, the fall of the Soviet Union, and retroactively justifies everything that has happened and retroactively grafts success onto every operation, battle, or policy.

I never claimed that every military action the United States had ever taken was the right one. The United States has made mistakes in nearly every war that it has ever been involved in. I simply stated that overall US strategy during the Cold War which involved heavy US military intervention and engagement around the world was the right strategy and proved to be very successful.

Since the end of the Cold War, both the Clinton and Bush administrations have shown that US military intervention around the world is still needed to protect US and global security as the world continues to grow more interdependent.

 

[Strongbow]

Poll: Obama opens up lead in Ohio - BostonHerald.com


Basically, none of these polls are worth squat right now

Take a look at these 5 polls and the average:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Ohio: McCain vs. Obama


Also, remember that Quinnipiac swings a bit to the left.

 

[2861U2]

Uh-oh. Looks like the Obama campaign may have gone overboard in their latest ad, criticizing McCain for not using a computer or sending email:

The Corner on National Review Online

Yep. The day after 9/11, as part of its "get tough" makeover, the Obama campaign is mocking John McCain for not using a computer, without caring why he doesn't use a computer. From the AP story about the computer illiterate ad:

"Our economy wouldn't survive without the Internet, and cyber-security continues to represent one our most serious national security threats," [Obama spokesman Dan] Pfeiffer said. "It's extraordinary that someone who wants to be our president and our commander in chief doesn't know how to send an e-mail."

Well, I guess it depends on what you mean by "extraordinary." The reason he doesn't send email is that he can't use a keyboard because of the relentless beatings he received from the Viet Cong in service to our country. From the Boston Globe (March 4, 2000):

McCain gets emotional at the mention of military families needing food stamps or veterans lacking health care. The outrage comes from inside: McCain's severe war injuries prevent him from combing his hair, typing on a keyboard, or tying his shoes. Friends marvel at McCain's encyclopedic knowledge of sports. He's an avid fan - Ted Williams is his hero - but he can't raise his arm above his shoulder to throw a baseball.

 

[Strongbow]

Obama has also increased his lead in Ohio.


These polls are going to go back and forth between now and Nov 4 barring any unforseen circumstances, the only polls I truly give a damn about start at 7pm EST November 4, 2008.

The reason I brought up Washington State is because it is NOT supposed to be a swing state. Its supposed to be SAFE for Obama. It was Safe for Obama prior to McCain's pick of Palin with Obama leading by 12 points there. Now he is only ahead by 2 points. If Obama does not win Washington State, he won't be able to win the election. This is a surprise. Washington was not close at all in 2000 or 2004 and has not voted Republican since 1984.

 

[financeguy]

McCain gets emotional at the mention of military families needing food stamps or veterans lacking health care. The outrage comes from inside: McCain's severe war injuries prevent him from combing his hair, typing on a keyboard, or tying his shoes. Friends marvel at McCain's encyclopedic knowledge of sports. He's an avid fan - Ted Williams is his hero - but he can't raise his arm above his shoulder to throw a baseball. [/I]

So you're ok with someone who - through no fault of his own - is in a very bad and weakened physical condition, occupying the most important job in the world? Does he have the sheer physical stamina for it, especially compared to a fit young specimen like Obama?

I think these are valid questions.

I wonder, are the Dems being clever and Machiavellian on this, for once. Are they finding a way to draw attention to the issue of McCain's physical health in the minds of the public, while pretending it's about his IT illiteracy (which, to be honest, most people aren't too bothered about, I'd guess).

 

[financeguy]

I personally think this one is still winnable for Obama/Biden, but they will have to be cleverer than they have been so far.

I was one of the few on FYM to correctly predict - the moment that I heard of it - that the Palin selection would completely and utterly change the entire frame of the race, and I still think McCain is the most likely winner, but it is not out of Obama's grasp yet.

 

[Se7en]

McCain's severe war injuries prevent him from combing his hair, typing on a keyboard, or tying his shoes.

this is a completely honest question:

how do his injuries prevent him from using a keyboard? combing of the hair i completely understand as his shoulders obviously have a limited range of vertical motion. if his seat was situated high enough, and the keyboard low enough, it seems that he would have no problem typing. do his fingers have limited motion as well? or is holding his arms up at any angle particularly fatiguing/painful?

i am in no way suggesting he is lying. just curious.

 

[Strongbow]

So you're ok with someone who - through no fault of his own - is in a very bad and weakened physical condition, occupying the most important job in the world? Does he have the sheer physical stamina for it, especially compared to a fit young specimen like Obama?

I think these are valid questions.

I wonder, are the Dems being clever and Machiavellian on this, for once. Are they finding a way to draw attention to the issue of McCain's physical health in the minds of the public, while pretending it's about his IT illiteracy (which, to be honest, most people aren't too bothered about, I'd guess).

I don't think he was talking about his general health. In addition, those "real age charts" have shown McCains real age to be about 57. In many ways he is very healthy for his age and I'm sure his 96 year old mother agrees.

 

[anitram]

How does he handwrite? You are employing the same muscular groups there.

Or can he basically do no office/administrative tasks? I wasn't aware of that.

 

[BVS]

I don't think he was talking about his general health. In addition, those "real age charts" have shown McCains real age to be about 57. In many ways he is very healthy for his age and I'm sure his 96 year old mother agrees.

Anyone who thinks his past doesn't affect his physical health and mental health are fooling themselves.

 

[financeguy]

I don't think he was talking about his general health. In addition, those "real age charts" have shown McCains real age to be about 57. In many ways he is very healthy for his age and I'm sure his 96 year old mother agrees.

Those real age charts are basically nonsense. You program in the amount of fruit and veg you eat, tell the computer you don't smoke and consume precisely three glasses of wine a week, blah blah blah, and it spews out a result.

He has had melanoma, a form of cancer. There is nothing unusual in having cancer in one's sixties or seventies, But melanoma is a particularly virulent form of cancer.

His life expectancy is not at all good.

 

[BVS]

How does he handwrite? You are employing the same muscular groups there.

Or can he basically do no office/administrative tasks? I wasn't aware of that.

I'm sure he can, they just wanted to find another reason to play the POW card.

 

[anitram]

He has had melanoma, a form of cancer. There is nothing unusual in having cancer in one's sixties or seventies, But melanoma is a particularly virulent form of cancer.

His life expectancy is not at all good.

His melanoma has been recurrent.

When that happens, the odds of it returning basically skyrocket and increase exponentially.

 

[Strongbow]

I personally think this one is still winnable for Obama/Biden, but they will have to be cleverer than they have been so far.

I was one of the few on FYM to correctly predict - the moment that I heard of it - that the Palin selection would completely and utterly change the entire frame of the race, and I still think McCain is the most likely winner, but it is not out of Obama's grasp yet.

I agree. The Republicans problem once again is New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado and their inability so far to jump significantly ahead in any Blue State from 2004. Iowa is going to go blue this year no matter what happens. New Mexico is sort of on edge at the moment now that McCain is in the lead again there by 2 points, but the Republicans barely won New Mexico in 2004 and most polls all year long have been trending more towards Obama. Colorado has been the same way, and the Democrats were wise to have their convention there. Polls after all the conventions show Obama still has a slight lead there.

So McCain/Palin must get back in the lead in Colorado or New Mexico, or else they are going to have to try and pick up a blue state from 2004. I think it would be easier for them to keep New Mexico or Colorado than it would be to pick up Michigan, Pennsylvania, or New Hampshire.

But then we have states like Washington which were supposed to be completely safe for Obama starting to come into play.

 

[2861U2]

So you're ok with someone who - through no fault of his own - is in a very bad and weakened physical condition, occupying the most important job in the world?

Yeah, I am actually. He's been campaigning for months and months now. In terms of physical stress, I wonder if constant campaigning is more challenging on a body than is actually being president. I don't have any doubts about his physical stamina.

Reagan was inaugurated at 69 and at 73. Buchanan was 65. Taylor was 64. Harrison was 68. And health and medicine have improved tremendously since when these men were president.

 

[2861U2]

I'm sure he can, they just wanted to find another reason to play the POW card.

Please explain, since you're clearly the smartest man in the world. A guy can't use a keyboard due to his injuries, his opponent (intentionally or not) mocks him for it, and somehow McCain is to blame?

Wow...

 

[financeguy]

Yeah, I am actually. He's been campaigning for months and months now. In terms of physical stress, I wonder if constant campaigning is more challenging on a body than is actually being president. I don't have any doubts about his physical stamina.

Reagan was inaugurated at 69 and at 73. Buchanan was 65. Taylor was 64. Harrison was 68. And health and medicine have improved tremendously since when these men were president.

These are certainly valid points - and indeed, one does not have to go too far back to find Presidents who have had serious health issues while in office, and at a much younger age than McCain is now, e.g. Kennedy and Johnson. And Roosevelt, of course, though that's going back a few years. I'm not sure if there's any FYM'r old enough to remember the scenes of Roosevelt being wheeled around in a wheelchair whilst fighting the war.

I do wonder, though, if America has got used to relatively young and virile presidents of late, i.e., Bush Jr and Clinton both being healthy exercise freaks whilst in office, with their obsessive mountain-biking and jogging , and making a public virtue of it.

I still think McCain's age and health issues could, if the Democrats are clever enough to exploit them, become an issue.

 

[kellyahern]

Reagan was inaugurated at 69 and at 73. Buchanan was 65. Taylor was 64. Harrison was 68. And health and medicine have improved tremendously since when these men were president.

Hey, two of those guys are in the "Mediocre Presidents" song from The Simpsons

There's William Henry Harrison,
Harrison: I died in thirty days!

^That's my favorite part

 

[2861U2]

^ True, but from a cold/pneumonia. Not really age-related.

 

[BVS]

Please explain, since you're clearly the smartest man in the world. A guy can't use a keyboard due to his injuries, his opponent (intentionally or not) mocks him for it, and somehow McCain is to blame?

Wow...

McCain's original comments weren't I can't use a computer, or I can't type, it was I don't know HOW TO send an email, or something to that effect.

So if he can't type, or write or any other small task hand motor skills, how the hell does he get anything done? Can he sign his own bills? So he has assistants, that's fine, he's never overseen them send out an email? Seems like it would be pretty easy for foul ups if he isn't over seeing his own words sent out. Does he run his office by smoke signals?

 

[anitram]

When did Reagan begin showing signs of AD?

Something a lot of people don't want to talk about.

 

[BVS]

^ True, but from a cold/pneumonia. Not really age-related.

You're kidding right?

 

[financeguy]

When did Reagan begin showing signs of AD?

Something a lot of people don't want to talk about.

There's no way Reagan had AID's.

 

[anitram]

There's no way Reagan had AID's.

What?

 

[financeguy]

What?

Reagan didn't have AID's. I know he used to hang around with Rock Hudson, but I doubt if they copulated.

 

[anitram]

AID's?

I was talking about AD - Alzheimer's Disease.

 

[financeguy]

Ah, I see.

But surely this Alzheimer's meant to click in around the late 1980's, according to left-wing opinion-formers, was it not?

I seem to remember him making some remarkably good decisions around that period. I seem to remember disarmament treaties being signed, and Eastern Europe being freed, that kind of stuff.

 

[anitram]

It is widely reported that he probably suffered from mild symptoms of it.

People can live with AD for 20+ years - good decision making doesn't mean that you are not suffering from the beginning stages of the disease.

I lived with somebody who had AD for about 7-8 years and I think that the perception of how the disease progresses is almost always incorrect as compared to the real thing.

 

[Strongbow]

Rasmussen Markets data now shows gave McCain to be a slight favorite for victory in November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants and currently give McCain a 51.2% chance of victory. Expectations for Obama are at 48.4%. Prior to this past week, expectations for a Democratic victory had generally been in the 60% range.

Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

 

[2861U2]

McCain's original comments weren't I can't use a computer, or I can't type, it was I don't know HOW TO send an email, or something to that effect.

True, but it's fair to say that he doesn't know how to because he isn't able to. He's never had a chance to learn because he doesn't really have a reason to learn.

So if he can't type, or write or any other small task hand motor skills, how the hell does he get anything done? Can he sign his own bills? So he has assistants, that's fine, he's never overseen them send out an email? Seems like it would be pretty easy for foul ups if he isn't over seeing his own words sent out. Does he run his office by smoke signals?

I know he can write. There must just be some distinction in being able to write versus being able to type. It's not something to disqualify him. I'm sure if he's president, he'll be able to do his job.