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#181 |
Refugee
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Just because someone registers as a Democrat does not mean they will actually end up voting for the Democratic candidate. Most people look at polling in order to try to predict election results.
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#182 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
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I don't really think any national poll is worth anything, not when Obama is up by 10 or down by 10 or they are tied. Just ask Al Gore how far the popular vote got him.
__________________The state polls I think do have some importance if it's a decent pollster with a pretty good historical record. There are also a lot of new polling outfits and you really don't know what to make of them yet. But I think there is a caveat here, with respect to cell phones (most people I know don't own a home phone; I certainly haven't owned one in 3 years), the huge changes in voter affiliation which have NOT yet been properly accounted for, the under-representation of African American voters which pretty much every reasonable person knows will show up in increased numbers, etc. So while I think state polls are better, I don't believe that relying on 2004-era methodology is necessarily very accurate here. I'd be interested in comparing the polls in the last week before the election with the final outcome. |
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#183 | |
Blue Crack Distributor
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: In a dry and waterless place
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#184 | |
ONE
love, blood, life Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Kettering, Ohio
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#185 |
ONE
love, blood, life Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Wild West
Posts: 12,518
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If Obama wins by electoral college but looses the popular vote I am going to enjoy watching the American left backtrack.
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#186 | |
War Child
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: In a house filled with boys, guitars, pets and a lot of love!
Posts: 947
Local Time: 06:32 AM
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Quote:
That did not strike me as a "friendly admonishment" hence a defensive attitude. I'll believe you because you said it and I have no reason to doubt you, but that is not how it came across. |
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#187 |
ONE
love, blood, life Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
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#188 |
ONE
love, blood, life Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
Posts: 10,122
Local Time: 03:32 PM
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#189 | |
Refugee
Join Date: Dec 2007
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#190 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
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Local Time: 10:32 AM
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If you look at the primaries, the AA participation really increased once it became clear that Obama had a very good shot at winning. So I have little doubt that these voters will show up in increased numbers. The question is how high will the numbers be?
McCain will be lucky to get 2-3% of the black vote. But for all the talk of Obama's problem with women/Hillary voters/evangelicals/southerners/Catholic Pennsylvanians/rural voters, etc, seems like nobody cares that McCain has a major problem with black voters. |
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#191 |
Blue Crack Distributor
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: In a dry and waterless place
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Local Time: 10:32 AM
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Obama wasn't running in '04. Despite the Rock The Vote effort, Kerry didn't have nearly the appeal to that demographic that Obama has. Hence, it wasn't as much of a factor in '04 as it will be this election.
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#192 | |
Blue Crack Addict
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Location: NY
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#193 | |
Refugee
Join Date: Dec 2007
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McCain has already won the male vote in the country. He leads Obama 48% to 42% among men before the conventions. He is 10 points behind with women, but certainly is pick of Palin will narrow that gap. |
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#194 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 10:32 AM
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1. Women make up more than 50% of the population.
2. Women vote in higher proportion than men. 3. Some polls have Obama up by as much as 15% among women. 4. Even if that deficit is magically erased by Palin to say 7-8%, still does not bode well for McCain. 5. That is to say nothing of the group that is the biggest X factor - college students. If they can replicate Iowa across college campuses, this election will be over early that evening. Unfortunately, having to rely on this unreliable group is not ideal. |
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#195 |
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: In a glass case of emotion
Posts: 8,158
Local Time: 09:32 AM
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#196 | |
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Lovetown
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So are you saying that Obama will lose because white people in those states won't vote for him? That's what you seem to imply. The implication, of course, being that in states like Ohio & PA, non-AA people who voted for Clinton are not going to vote for Obama---for, if we are to assume that the majority (yes, "majority," not "all") of Clinton voters have no issue with color and stick with party to vote Obama in the election, then you don't really have an argument--he'd have a very nice voting bloc. You make it sound like Obama's only supporters in those states were (are) black, and that the whites who voted Clinton won't show support.
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#197 | |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
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Going to the polls on a Tuesday by yourself is not very exciting. If they could schedule some kind of large gathering where people could get together and shout "Yes We Can" "Yes We Can" "Yes We Can" and get their votes counted then we might have something. |
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#198 |
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: watching the Cubs
Posts: 4,292
Local Time: 08:32 AM
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Only semi-election related, but this is just now appearing on Drudge:
MSNBC drops Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews from anchor chair... David Gregory will anchor news coverage of the coming debates and election night.... Developing... Viewer complaints of obvious bias, perhaps? Who knows, but I'm sure Olbermann isn't happy. Carry on, while I celebrate. ![]() |
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#199 |
Blue Crack Addict
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 10:32 AM
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I'm beginning to think you're almost as fixated with Olbermann as Olbermann is.
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#200 | |
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: In a glass case of emotion
Posts: 8,158
Local Time: 09:32 AM
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mccain, obama, politics |
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