US 08 Presidential Campaign General Discussion Thread #7

[LMP]

McCain's ads against Obama crack me up. I've seen some ridiculous campaign ads, but the purveying message of Obama essentially being either the Antichrist or "The One" was almost too outrageous to believe. How these ads help his campaign, I'll never know.

This was also funny: Presidential Candidates in Rewind: John McCain in 'Wedding Crashers' - Cinematical

It's not like McCain ever hosted a full episode of SNL before either...

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Happy 47th bday Sen Obama-and he's spending it in Boston at a fundraiser for his campaign



Haha

The town of Sturgis, South Dakota will witness, on Monday, the rare fusion of drunken debauchery, public stripteasing, motorcycle rallying, a live performance by Kid Rock, and - last but not least - a veterans-themed speech by presidential candidate John McCain. Seriously.

On Sunday, the McCain campaign announced that the Senator will participate in the Sturgis Rally 2008 at Buffalo Chip in South Dakota, an annual tribute to American veterans. The event is up the Arizona Republican's wheelhouse, attracting thousands of active duty and former servicemen, many who have a natural affinity towards the Senator.

But it is hard not to notice the evocative, non-political sideshows that will literally surround McCain's speech. As the presumptive nominee takes the stage, the "Ringin' Wet & Wild" women's wrestling event will be taking place on the main amphitheater. Two hours before then, the "Miss Buffalo Chip Beauty Pageant - Bikinis on the Beach" will be staged at a different venue. That affair is described by ESPN's Jim Caple as "essentially a topless beauty pageant. And occasionally bottomless, too."

"During a drenching rain Wednesday night, the contest broke up into smaller groups and one woman wound up dancing naked on a bar top. Her boyfriend/husband saw her and angrily dragged her away as she struggled to put her pants back on and muttered something about how, "It's only this one week a year.""

How sweet. Sadly, the pageant also sees its share of domestic abuse, which even the event's organizers admit to Caple is a major problem.

Following McCain's speech, country stars Kellie Pickler and Kid Rock will be taking the very same stage for their own live performances. Then at 12:30 a.m., there will be the semi-finals of the "Miss Buffalo Chip Beauty Pageant," this time featuring Hawaiian Tropic Models.

The cultural crossroads that is the Sturgis Rally could actually be fertile political ground for the Republican presidential nominee. Hosted in a town of 5,500, the event sees upward of half a million bikers over the course of a week. Many of them, the founder of the campground is quoted as saying, have expressed interest in seeing the Senator, whose POW background makes him a fan favorite. How the religious right will react is a whole other bag.

 

[intedomine]

Obama better win this thing.....that McCain feral is cringeworthy and will send the world backwards....

 

[INDY500]

ethics reform

number of cosponsors (47)
Including John McCain (yes)

securing "loose nukes"

Obama should receive credit for this but it is really Richard Lugar's bill proposed and written while Lugar was still Chairmen of the Committee on Foreign Relations. The committee that Joe Biden now heads.

various disaster response bills

Nothing distinctive here, who was against massive aid and probes into our disaster management post-Katrina?

If you compared all 100 Senate records with no names attached would Senator Obama's really jump out as exemplary, extraordinary or even above average?

 

[Irvine511]

If you compared all 100 Senate records with no names attached would Senator Obama's really jump out as exemplary, extraordinary or even above average?

exemplary in a short period of time, absolutely. there's also his quite substantial background in the Illinois state senate and as a community organizer.

but passing legislation through the Senate is only one criteria upon which to judge a candidate. Senator McCain has many pieces of legislation, some of which could be considered accomplishments, but that make me not want to vote for him.

 

[2861U2]

Obama better win this thing.....

I think Obama is in a mess of trouble right now. I've been listening to a local radio station this morning, and they've had caller after calling complaining about Obama's incredible arrogance demonstrated recently. Keep in mind, this is northern Illinois, where one of his strongest areas should be.

I have to say it again: Considering the supposed amazing week Obama had overseas, and the supposed terrible week McCain had (not to mention the "celebrity" ad), the polls are closer than ever. Gallup is at 45-44 Obama, Rasmussen has 47-46 McCain.

 

[INDY500]

there's also his quite substantial background in the Illinois state senate

of voting "present"

and as a community organizer

whatever the hell that is

but passing legislation through the Senate is only one criteria upon which to judge a candidate

we should also take into account how many times the candidate and his family have been on the cover of US or PEOPLE magazine.

 

[Irvine511]

of voting "present"

this wildly misunderstands how the IL state senate works.

whatever the hell that is

something for you to look up and read about.

we should also take into account how many times the candidate and his family have been on the cover of US or PEOPLE magazine.

how many times before he ran for president? do not candidates -- particularly one as history making as Obama -- attract media attention? i remember lots of photo spreads on the Gores and the Bush girls.

 

[anitram]

How about this for a hoot from McCain today (NYT):

While some Republican members of the House are having a jolly time in Washington trying to embarrass the Democrats into returning to Congress to pass an energy bill, Senator John McCain on Monday issued a personal challenge to his Democratic rival to “come back into town and come back to work.”

Mr. McCain, the presumed Republican nominee, urged Congress to abandon its five-week summer recess and return to the Capitol to address the nation’s energy needs.

“Congress should come back into session,” Mr. McCain said after touring the National Label Company, in Lafayette Hill, a suburb of Philadelphia, according to a pool report. “I am willing to come back off the campaign trail.”

Meanwhile....

McCain leads all senators in missed votes in the 110th Congress.

He even beats the guy who was in a COMA for months.

 

[maycocksean]

It makes me sad to see McCain reduce himself in this manner.

 

[Strongbow]

oh, yes, the GDP canard. GDP is one of those frames meant to dilute the size of the fiscal recklessness.

No, its the only accurate way to assess really how serious a burden the debt, deficit or certain spending levels are to the country.

sure, there's some merit in giving these numbers historical context, but it isn't the GDP which is paying off government debt, it's government revenue

Do you know where government revenue comes from? Ones capacity to deal with any level of debt starts with that persons total wealth. GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within a given year, and is the standard measure of wealth that most economist use when looking at a country. So naturally, to really appreciate the burden any level of debt, deficit, or spending is having on the country at a given time, you need to compare it to the total wealth of the country at that time.

Todays deficit is 3.4% of GDP and is less than most years of the 1980s and early 1990s to include Bill Clinton's first year in office. Its also less than the deficit ratio to GDP was in 1975 and 1976. Compared to the years the country was involved in World War II, the recent deficit is tiny. The annual deficit during World War II was nearly 30% of GDP. Thats nearly 10 times worse than it is today.

I don't think there is anything wrong with a tax increase provided it is targeted toward the upper income levels and does not involve the lower and middle class. Its important to keep consumer spending going during a slow economic period. Increasing taxes on the middle class could hurt the economy and actually end up decreasing the amount of tax revenue coming into the government.

 

[mobvok]

The American people. First Rasmussen, now Zogby saying McCain has a marginal lead over Obama in national polling. Next time anyone says the American people are sick of negative campaigning or vapid personality-based attacks be sure to smack them in the head. We love that stuff, it works.

 

[deep]

This could be a turning point in the elections?

The average American, yes the bitter guy clinging to his 2nd amendment rights and his religion - knows one thing right now.

He does not like $4 - $5 a gallon gasoline, it is hurting him every which way.

McCain and the GOP would like to take action and get gasoline back around $3.00 a gallon.


Obama and the Dems, do not feel their pain!

They could care less for if the average American pays $6 or $7 a gallon.


Keep in mind, there is no truth.


There is only perception.

It looks like I called this one.

The polls have moved for McCain since I wrote this.

 

[Irvine511]

The American people. First Rasmussen, now Zogby saying McCain has a marginal lead over Obama in national polling. Next time anyone says the American people are sick of negative campaigning or vapid personality-based attacks be sure to smack them in the head. We love that stuff, it works.

and Obama has to hit back. and hard. and he did. i think this is a very good spot -- yes, it's negative, but on an issue, not on comparing a clean, articulate black man to sexually available white women:

YouTube - "Pocket" TV Ad



but, yes, i am dismayed at how effective the Rovian tactics have been against Obama in the past week, though i'd caution any Chicken Littles out there. McCain still doesn't ever poll above 45%, and the battleground states this year are Red States. from an electoral college perspective, Obama is well in command, and national polls mean little right now, especially when they capture every hiccup and cough of the campaign.

Obama has to act, though, especially now that McCain has brought in a group of political advisers who have absolutely no scruples whatsoever and will say absolutely anything and everything to damage the opposing candidate, no matter how breathtakingly offensive or inaccurate.

 

[anitram]

Nevermind some of the polls have been terrible. Take yesterday's SUSA Florida poll in which McCain leads slightly. He had 18% of the African American vote. Does anyone in their right mind actually believe that McCain will garner 1 in 5 AA votes? He'll be lucky to break 5%. Then there is the fact that Republicans continue to be oversampled in pretty much each and every poll since pollsters are relying on party affiliation from 4 years ago and are not accounting for the drop in Republican affiliation since nor in the rise of Democratic registered voters.

That Chuck Todd guy on MSNBC is actually pretty good when it comes to dissecting polls.

 

[U2democrat]

Chuck Todd

 

[2861U2]

McCain still doesn't ever poll above 45%,

Sure he does. The fact that Obama hasn't gotten above 50% should worry Democrats. In a year like this, Obama should be hovering around 60%.

 

[Irvine511]

Sure he does. The fact that Obama hasn't gotten above 50% should worry Democrats. In a year like this, Obama should be hovering around 60%.

no, he doesn't. show me once in the gallup poll where he's gone above 44%. today, Obama's back up by 3 points.

where do you get your "should be hovering around 60%" number? when was the last time a candidate got 60% of the popular vote?

and i'll continue to say that the polls are meaningless at this point.

 

[2861U2]

no, he doesn't. show me once in the gallup poll where he's gone above 44%.

The USA Today/Gallup poll had McCain up 49-45. Rasmussen has had McCain 47-46.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

where do you get your "should be hovering around 60%" number? when was the last time a candidate got 60% of the popular vote?"

1972. My point is that in a tremendously Democratic year, with a candidate so (supposedly) popular and amazing as Obama, he should have an incredible lead right now. I've only seen a few polls that show him breaking 50%.

and i'll continue to say that the polls are meaningless at this point.

I mostly agree. However, some trends are quite interesting to look at. I just heard on the radio that Obama once led among Catholics, but now McCain is up by 15.

 

[Irvine511]

The USA Today/Gallup poll had McCain up 49-45. Rasmussen has had McCain 47-46.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Gallup Daily: Obama Holds 4-Point Advantage

1972. My point is that in a tremendously Democratic year, with a candidate so (supposedly) popular and amazing as Obama, he should have an incredible lead right now. I've only seen a few polls that show him breaking 50%.

i think you'd also have to admit that this is a very, very shallow understanding of how the political process works, and becomes spin for McCain.

I mostly agree. However, some trends are quite interesting to look at. I just heard on the radio that Obama once led among Catholics, but now McCain is up by 15.

and i just read yesterday that Obama is up 10 points amongst white working class voters.

these anecdotal pieces of information aren't worth all that much except to give you a snapshot of the conversation.

 

[deep]

Obama has to hit back. and hard. and he did. i think this is a very good spot -- yes, it's negative, but on an issue, not on comparing
a clean, articulate black man
to
sexually available white women:

don't you think you are ginning this up a bit?


Senator Obama compared himself to Paris Hilton back on February 24, 2005.

"Andy Warhol said we all get our 15 minutes of fame," says Barack Obama. "I've already had an hour and a half. I mean, I'm so overexposed, I'm making Paris Hilton look like a recluse."

.

 

[Irvine511]

don't you think you are ginning this up a bit?


Senator Obama compared himself to Paris Hilton back on February 24, 2005.

no.

Britney and Paris are yesterday's news:

"If you notice, since Britney started wearing clothes and behaving; Paris is out of town not bothering anybody anymore — thank God — and evidently, Lindsay Lohan has gone gay, we don't seem to have much of an issue,"

i think the unspoken messages are heard loud and clear. i work in media. i know exactly how much thought goes into the construction and presentation of images, and i know that they're designed to operate on several different levels at once and designed to subtly pull at conscious or unconscious fears.

this is how Harold Ford was beaten.

i think "presumptuous" really means "uppity." this is why there's the focus on arugala an organic tea and protein bars.

i think that the person who claims that the other is "playing the race card" is actually playing the race card.

 

[Strongbow]

Although the national polls do give a good indication of how the election race is going, the state polls are more significant. Unfortunately, many of the advantages that McCain appeared to have in the spring in the area of state polls no longer appear to be there. Ever since Obama won the nomination, the battleground Blue states have moved solidly behind Obama, with the possible exception of Michigan and New Hampshire.

The next problem for McCain are the red battleground states of Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. With the 2004 Blue states locked up, Obama only needs to win these three red states to win the election. Iowa is already solid blue. Colorado was essentially solid blue until McCain came out ahead in a poll there for the first time ever, but only by 2 points. But then you have to consider that the Democrats are having their convention there and the impact that will have in the state. New Mexico previously seemed more even, but is now trending Blue.

The best chance for McCain now is to find a way to win either Colorado or New Mexico, or take a blue state like Michigan or New Hampshire. Plus, there is also the need to lock up red states like Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, and Missouri.

Obama appears to be very well positioned unless McCain can find a way to make winning Michigan, New Hampshire, or even Pennsylvania a strong possiblity.

 

[mobvok]

What detailed analysis leads people to believe that Barack should have a 20 point lead over McCain? This isn't a generic Democrat vs. a generic Republican. Each candidate has their own strengths and weaknesses, and I'd be surprised if any other Democratic candidate could have done significantly better in the polls then Barack has done since June. I might as well claim Barack should be hovering around 90%. Raising expectations.

 

[deep]

One candidate would be a good 5-8 points higher, that is for sure.

 

[deep]

i think the unspoken messages are heard loud and clear. i work in media. i know exactly how much thought goes into the construction and presentation of images, and i know that they're designed to operate on several different levels at once and designed to subtly pull at conscious or unconscious fears.

So because you know everything

When Obama first introduced the comparison of himself to Paris Hilton
was he sending a subliminal message to lusting white women?

Is this the secret of his success?

 

[BVS]

What detailed analysis leads people to believe that Barack should have a 20 point lead over McCain?

Three words: Right, Talk, Radio

This is how they are spinning it.

 

[yolland]

When Obama first introduced the comparison of himself to Paris Hilton
was he sending a subliminal message to lusting white women?

You could suspect both 'messages' of carrying sexist overtones without being unreasonable, though I think it's harder to argue against that perception in the case of the McCain ad. Paris Hilton=Tiresomely Omnipresent is a less loaded association than Hilton/Spears=Wanton, Incompetent Basket Case.

I don't see the racial analogy you're suggesting at all.

 

[Irvine511]

So because you know everything

When Obama first introduced the comparison of himself to Paris Hilton
was he sending a subliminal message to lusting white women?

Is this the secret of his success?

you're comparing an off-the-cuff remark to a carefully planned and executed political ad?

and when it comes to assembling images in order to tell a story, i will defer to no one in FYM (except maybe Melon).

 

[deep]

Why did Obama not refer Tiger Woods?

Why was he thinking about Paris Hilton.


I am really not serious here
I just don't buy your arguments on that ad