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Old 10-11-2013, 02:42 PM   #681
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further, it's a single poll. it does look as if Obama's approval ratings have taken a small hit -- Gallup has him at 43%, the NBC/WSJ poll has his rating actually going up by 2 points to 47% -- but i'm sure the outlier will be the poll that some people have to rely on as the GOP self destructs.

i also anticipate lots of "liberal media" blame on the right wing blogs.
I know you've expressed your opinion on blame. The polls, however, show that the people are growing increasingly dissatisfied with their government.
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Old 10-11-2013, 03:11 PM   #682
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I know you've expressed your opinion on blame. The polls, however, show that the people are growing increasingly dissatisfied with their government.

I agree. The biggest drag on our economy is the dysfunction in Washington.
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Old 10-11-2013, 03:41 PM   #683
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Wait, are we still arguing over whose fault this is?



Said just before the shutdown started.
The actual quote:

“This is exactly what we had hoped for. A full one year delay, a full year defunding. It is a full delay of one year of the taxes, a full delay of the funding including all the advertising. It’s exactly what we asked for and we got it. So we’re very excited. That’s why I think we can all vote.”

She wasn't referring to the shutdown, but instead to the measure that would fund the government while delaying funding the ACA for a year.

Bachmann Denies Saying Shutdown ‘Exactly What We Wanted’: WaPo and Obama ‘Misquoted Me’ | Mediaite

I know very little about Bachmann, and I get that she's red meat for Democrats, but we should at least make sure we're parsing the right quotes.
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Old 10-11-2013, 03:50 PM   #684
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That delay came with hand in hand with the government shutdown.

They got what they wanted indeed.
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Old 10-11-2013, 05:53 PM   #685
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A few things happened along the way that made those numbers skyrocket. You'd have admitted that if you had any interest in being fair.

Aside from that, if you're not talking relative to GDP, you're just reciting a talking point. Not dissimilar to the Republican automatons that said all during the 2012 election that "the US Govt brought in more tax receipts last year than any point in history" in order to argue that tax rates were high enough. It's totally oblivious to the proper historical perspective for comparison. GDP.

Government Spending Chart: United States 1940-2018 - Federal State Local Data

According the actual budget estimates (I believe these are scored by the CBO), by 2014, the deficit is projected to be 4.37% of GDP. It was higher than that in 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1991 and 1992. We're going in the right direction and the deficit will continue to fall (maybe even further) the more the total economy grows. You know, GDP.

And your final statement is flat out wrong anyway.
The largest deficit the U.S. has had was during WWII. I think most people would have assumed that was true without even knowing the numbers. But nonetheless the numbers are in that link but I'll just post them here.

The highest under Obama was 10% in 2009.
1943 was 28%, 1945 was 24% and 1944 was 22%. 1942 was 12%.

So actually 2009 was the 5th largest in history. But what do we care getting the facts right by putting them into proper perspective when we can just twist them to fit our argument?

Is that number still too high? Yes. But the only reason the deficit got out of hand was because of the two wars, the two tax cuts, topped by the greedy banking practices. We should take all of that into account if we care about the truth. Do you care more about hating Obama than the truth?
No mention of the real debt drivers, entitlements?

I was talking total dollars so yes there are arguments one could make regarding inflation adjusted dollars and GDP%. But what would that chart look like if, instead of operating deficits, the government had to include all liabilities as a business would? Throw in unfunded entitlement and pension liabilities and tell me things are getting rosier.

And one look at CBO and OMB charts show the deficit shooting up again.
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Old 10-11-2013, 06:33 PM   #686
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No mention of the real debt drivers, entitlements?

I was talking total dollars so yes there are arguments one could make regarding inflation adjusted dollars and GDP%. But what would that chart look like if, instead of operating deficits, the government had to include all liabilities as a business would? Throw in unfunded entitlement and pension liabilities and tell me things are getting rosier.

And one look at CBO and OMB charts show the deficit shooting up again.
Look, I'm far from an Obama apologist and we definitely should have another serious conversation about the deficit and debt in FYM. However much we all disagree about X, Y or Z, I am just for an intellectually honest approach.

There's a reason 2009 looks so bad and the first few years thereafter. And not all of it had to do with flatly egregious spending. And talking about total dollars is meaningless as a historical measure. And the only reason you did it is to say "see, look how bad it is!" And you know as well as I do, that it's disingenuous to do so. That's all. So yeah, let's talk about entitlements as a debt driver. Let's talk about ALL of it. Part of that conversation is admitting that the Great Recession skewed the numbers that you keep citing to make Obama look like 'the worst ever'. And that's just partisan garbage to me.
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Old 10-11-2013, 06:35 PM   #687
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I would like someone to make a compelling argument as to why I should respect the opinions of Republicans.
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Old 10-11-2013, 06:40 PM   #688
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Indy, if we want to balance the budget, for the government that Republicans and Democrats both want (whether they say they do or not) we need more revenue, through growth.

How do we get more growth? I suppose that's where the serious argument resides.

Cutting "entitlements" is a code word for talking about Medicaid, welfare and "freebies". Because Social Security and Medicare are going to be off limits, that's just the practical reality. So it's not part of the serious conversation.

The other part of this, Indy, is the reality about austerity. If you need more growth like a crackhead needs crack and cutting the hell out of everything shrinks the total economy, which has been clearly demonstrated in Europe and elsewhere, then what do you do?

We can't cut our way out of it. So what's the alternative?
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Old 10-11-2013, 11:51 PM   #689
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Because Social Security and Medicare are going to be off limits, that's just the practical reality.
I think that this reality needs to change, but maybe that's because I'm 20 years old.
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Old 10-12-2013, 11:27 AM   #690
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I would like someone to make a compelling argument as to why I should respect the opinions of Republicans.
Yep.
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Old 10-12-2013, 01:00 PM   #691
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I would like someone to make a compelling argument as to why I should respect the opinions of Republicans.
I would like someone to make a compelling argument as to why we should continue to centralize and expand authoritarian power over the states, individuals and the economy to either the Republicans or the Democrats.
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Old 10-12-2013, 01:46 PM   #692
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Indy, if we want to balance the budget, for the government that Republicans and Democrats both want (whether they say they do or not) we need more revenue, through growth.

How do we get more growth? I suppose that's where the serious argument resides.
No nation has taxed itself to prosperity have they?
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Cutting "entitlements" is a code word for talking about Medicaid, welfare and "freebies". Because Social Security and Medicare are going to be off limits, that's just the practical reality. So it's not part of the serious conversation.
They have to be, period. The president must lead as Reagan did in increasing the retirement age from 65 to 67. But this president fails to lead; he fails to acknowledge the obvious. He demagogues.

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The other part of this, Indy, is the reality about austerity. If you need more growth like a crackhead needs crack and cutting the hell out of everything shrinks the total economy, which has been clearly demonstrated in Europe and elsewhere, then what do you do?

We can't cut our way out of it. So what's the alternative?
How about we cut our way back to 2002?

2002 budget deficit; $157 billion
2012 budget deficit; $1.32 trillion

Yet blaming the deficit on two wars and tax cuts doesn't explain this:

2002 fiscal spending; $2 trillion or 19.1% of GDP
2012 fiscal spending; 3.8 trillion or 24.3% of GDP

Yet the unemployment rate was lower and economic growth was greater in 2002 wasn't it. And there was medical research, aid for the poor, open national parks and civilization was not in Road Warrior mode way back in 2002 either was it?

Worst of all!!

2002 total federal debt as percent of GDP; 58.8%
2012 total federal debt as percentage of GDP; 104.8%

As annual deficits accumulate the drag becomes even worse.

Total federal debt in real dollars is $17 trillion dollars. Spending on debt service alone will rise to almost $800 billion by the year 2021 and that assumes the artificially low interest rates are still in place,. What does that buy? What does that build? Whom does that assist? What does that do to our economy, our bond ratings, our future?

I agree, we need to grow revenues through economic growth but do tax increases spur growth? And we certainly will never grow ourselves out of debt as long as debt as a percentage of GDP is higher than GDP growth.

"The fastest falling deficit" that Irvine trumpets is still projected to be 4% of GDP. You think we will have economic growth of over 4% this year? During the next 3 years?
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Old 10-12-2013, 02:34 PM   #693
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But this president fails to lead; he fails to acknowledge the obvious. He demagogues.
Who do you see on the Republican side displaying real leadership on this issue?
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Old 10-12-2013, 04:47 PM   #694
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Who do see on the Republican side displaying real leadership on this issue?
You have to give Paul Ryan some credit for at least talking about entitlement reform.
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Old 10-12-2013, 06:01 PM   #695
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The president must lead as Reagan did in increasing the retirement age from 65 to 67. But this president fails to lead; he fails to acknowledge the obvious. He demagogues.
That age increase was phased in over a 22 year period. Obama's FY 2014 budget has a reduced cost of living adjustment for social security, which would save $130B over ten years.
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Old 10-12-2013, 07:43 PM   #696
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That age increase was phased in over a 22 year period. Obama's FY 2014 budget has a reduced cost of living adjustment for social security, which would save $130B over ten years.
All well and good unless you're on a fixed income and the interest rates on savings is being held at zero and the dollar is being devalued which inflates the price of commodities (sugar, wheat, corn, cattle, oil, etc) to a much greater degree.
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Old 10-12-2013, 09:10 PM   #697
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All well and good unless you're on a fixed income and the interest rates on savings is being held at zero and the dollar is being devalued which inflates the price of commodities (sugar, wheat, corn, cattle, oil, etc) to a much greater degree.
Chained CPI will still account for inflation, but to a lesser degree than CPI-W. House Republicans support chained CPI btw. Sounds like more than demagoguery to me.
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Old 10-12-2013, 10:34 PM   #698
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Who do you see on the Republican side displaying real leadership on this issue?
1) The GOP governors and legislatures that are practicing fiscal and regulatory restraint, promoting pro-growth policies and lowering taxes in their states.

2) Senators like Mike Lee and Ted Cruz that are pulling back the curtain on the deal-making, cronyism, corruption and phony politicians that run rampant in Washington. And pissing off all the right people in the process (The statists, the establishment GOP, Wall St corporatists and the mainstream media).

3) Concerned citizens (not necessarily all Republicans) that are letting their representatives know that they are disgusted by business as usual and a disconnected government and debt that grow and grow as if on autopilot.
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Old 10-13-2013, 02:11 PM   #699
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2) Senators like Mike Lee and Ted Cruz that are pulling back the curtain on the deal-making, cronyism, corruption and phony politicians that run rampant in Washington. And pissing off all the right people in the process (The statists, the establishment GOP, Wall St corporatists and the mainstream media).
And then, because of their "leadership" there's no response to something like this:

Blizzard ravages South Dakota's livestock industry - latimes.com

But then, like a lot of Republicans, these poor people have to learn the hard way that the policies they support apply to them as well:

Quote:
Yet Washington's shutdown has deprived people here of a traditional safety net: Congress hasn't passed a new farm bill to subsidize agricultural producers, and the lockout means legislators won't be voting on the topic any time soon.

These days, Reder passes a federal Farm Services Administration office whose doors are closed. ...

...

Many residents in this conservative region had supported the government shutdown as a way to make Washington more fiscally responsible. "But one appropriate role for these guys is to lend a hand after disasters like this," Christen said, "and they're not here."
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Old 10-13-2013, 02:50 PM   #700
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I would like someone to make a compelling argument as to why we should continue to centralize and expand authoritarian power over the states, individuals and the economy to either the Republicans or the Democrats.
This is not an answer to my request.
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