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Old 04-14-2017, 10:45 AM   #601
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Isn't Jesus supposed to come back this weekend too?


get ready to Rapture!
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Old 04-14-2017, 10:53 AM   #602
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Bannon leaving entirely would be interesting. The way I see his character, he'd turn Breitbart into a vicious anti-Trump machine. He's not the kind to just pack up and leave, thinking was worth a shot, back to the drawing board.

Bannon's departure would rip the mask off the 'blue-collar Trump' - CNN.com
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Old 04-14-2017, 11:52 AM   #603
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okay, first of all let's stop being scared that the north is going to nuke seoul. having tested static nuclear weapons and then developing them into a strategically deliverable form are two entirely different beasts. how would they get a nuke to seoul? they don't have bomber aircraft, there's no way they've developed artillery shell sized weapons (it took the US a decade to figure out how to miniaturize that far) or something that could be smuggled in by an individual. south korea has one of the best missile defense systems in the world, plus there's a US carrier strike group right there - every one of the nine missile cruisers and destroyers that are in that group will immediately send a few dozen cruise missiles at every known silo in north korea and be on high alert to shoot any they miss down before they're barely off the ground.

what's more is that they probably don't even have any deliverable warheads of any kind to begin with. they can barely even make the things work now under ideal test conditions, they certainly don't have stocks of working nuclear missile warheads just tucked away in some bunker ready to be attached to the rockets.

there is no way on earth kim could perform a first strike of any kind, nuclear or not, that does any real damage whatsoever. there are a lot of artillery pieces near-ish the border, but they aren't ready to fire at all because you can't keep guns ready to fire like that in peacetime. to get them moved up to an actual firing position, get the extra men there, get the guns ready to fire, and provide all the ammunition required to sustain a bombardment would be blatantly obvious to US and SK intelligence for days or weeks before they'd be ready to fire the first shot. it's the most surveilled area on the planet.

nobody is nuking seoul, and the only nuclear strike that might happen is coming from a destroyer or a submarine in the yellow sea.
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Old 04-14-2017, 12:36 PM   #604
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I agree that NK really doesn't pose a threat to harming us over here in the States, but I wouldn't be so sure people in SK are feeling that safe right now.

You seem to know much more about the capabilities of NK arsenal that the rest of us in here, and I hope you are 100% correct.

What I don't get is why would Russia and China all be OK with the saber rattling of NK? They do know that a potential nuclear war is bad for everyone right?

It is time China steps up and starts pressuring NK to stop this, especially now that we have a GOP controlled government and executive branch who have no issues going to war.

And another part of me is on the fence with just taking them out, or at the very least, setting them back decades in regards to their ability to launch any sort of strike. The wildcard is what exactly would NK do if we attacked them?

Would the DMZ become a complete clusterfuck? I would imagine our soldiers and the SK army would suffer heavy damage initially.

I don't want war, but I feel NK has been being a bitch for far too long and Russia, China, and other major powers have seemed to be meh and they shouldn't.

Though I don't know why to stress or worry. We have the best man on the job. He'll be in FL again this weekend and depending on how good the cake is over Easter, NK may or may not exist anymore
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Old 04-14-2017, 01:08 PM   #605
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NK could easily shell Seoul with chemical weapons. It would also kick off a Korean war which would be an epic mess, nevermind China and Russian interventions. SK doesn't even want military action. For the US to strike NK would be a massive, massive mistake Kim Jong could easily go into "suicide mode" and try to take everyone out. Heavy sanctions and pressure from China is the way to go atm.


Somethings happening anyway...

Breaking: China has suspended all Air China flights from Beijing to North Korea https://t.co/0z1RxeGmqA
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Old 04-14-2017, 01:46 PM   #606
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well, note the part of my post where i mentioned artillery set up. they certainly do have some guns ready to fire, and they have the range to definitely hit the cities north of seoul, and about as far as the northern parts of seoul from where they're set up.

but US/SK intelligence knows exactly where basically all of these guns are placed, once again it's the most surveilled military area on earth and they've had 60 years of watching this spot. this would be even moreso the case if war is declared, as the sky would fill with AWACS and surveillance aircraft and A-10s and predator drones, you name it all operating openly on search and destroy missions. even if there are guns that are incredibly well hidden, the inherent thing about artillery is that it reveals its exact position the instant it fires. there would be counter-battery fire on any position so fast they probably wouldn't be able to get more than a dozen shots off before getting blown up.

like i said the cities north of seoul will almost certainly be shelled, you're right. it could even be with chemical weapons. but these cities are all modern creations from after the war, so everything's been built with this potential in mind, and reinforced appropriately. there are bunkers built to protect the public, and everyone knows what to do and where to go if they start being shelled. certainly there would be a high number of casualties from the first volley or two, i'm not saying it's not a big deal, but it won't last much longer than that, if at all, and the citizens do have the best protection available.

btw this information is not just me speculating but most of it comes from an excellent paper by a former US army analyst and now consultant on northeast asian security, here is the main jist:

Quote:
“Mind the gap between rhetoric and reality”
by Roger Cavazos

[...]

If the North Korean Peoples Army (KPA) were to start a doctrinal, conventional artillery barrage focused on South Korean forces, we could expect to see around three thousand casualties in the first few minutes, but the casualty rate would quickly drop as the surprise wears off and counter-battery fires slow down the North Korean rates of fire. If the KPA were to engage Seoul in a primarily counter-value fashion by firing into Seoul instead of primarily aiming at military targets, there would likely be around thirty-thousand casualties in a short amount of time. Statistically speaking, almost eight-hundred of those casualties would be foreigners given Seoul’s international demographic. Chinese make up almost seventy percent of foreigners in Seoul and its northern environs which means KPA might also kill six-hundred Chinese diplomats, multi-national corporation leaders, and ranking cadre children who are students in Seoul. Horrible, but nothing approaching “millions”. Three primary factors and three secondary factors account for the huge discrepancy between rhetoric and reality:

Three Primary Factors

Range – Only about 1/3 of Seoul is presently in range from artillery along a DMZ trace. The northern reaches of Seoul within artillery range have much lower population densities than Seoul proper;

Numbers – Even though KPA has a tremendous number of artillery pieces, only a certain number are emplaced to range Seoul. KPA can’t emplace every weapon near Seoul or the rest of North Korea’s expansive border would be unguarded and even more vulnerable. Moreover, an artillery tube immediately reveals its location as soon as it fires. Therefore only about two-thirds of artillery will open fire at a time. The rest are trying to remain hidden;

Protection – Artillery shelters for twenty million people exist in the greater Seoul metropolitan area. After the initial surprise has worn off, there simply won’t be large numbers of exposed people. Even during the initial attack the vast majority of people will either be at work, at home, or in transit. Few people will be standing in the middle of an open field with no protection whatsoever available anywhere nearby.

Three Secondary Factors

Dud rate – the only numbers available—to the DPRK as well as the rest of the world—indicate a dud rate of twenty-five percent. It’s like immediately taking every fourth artillery tube away.

Counter-battery fires – shortly after the KPA artillery begins firing, and the political decision has been made, South Korean artillery, Air Forces, and others will begin destroying artillery at a historical rate of 1% per hour. South Korea has had approximately 50 years to figure out where North Korean artillery tubes are emplaced using every sense available to man and machine.

Logistics – in order to move south from the DMZ trace and place the rest of Seoul at risk, KPA must expose approximately 2,500 thin-skinned vehicles each day along three well-defined transportation corridors. Otherwise, KPA grinds to an almost immediate halt without a way to transport fuel, ammunition and spare parts needed to continue moving south. Alternatively, KPA can scavenge from ROK fuel stores and depots if they have not been previously destroyed.
Mind the Gap Between Rhetoric and Reality | Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability
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Old 04-14-2017, 02:39 PM   #607
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Thank you for something rational. I was starting to freak myself out browsing Twitter last night and had to get offline.

This tweet from 2013 wasn't helping.

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Old 04-14-2017, 02:44 PM   #608
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It never ceases to amaze me that there seems to be a past Trump tweet that is completely contradictory to all of his current positions. And the best part is that he never deletes these tweets!
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Old 04-14-2017, 02:51 PM   #609
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It never ceases to amaze me that there seems to be a past Trump tweet that is completely contradictory to all of his current positions. And the best part is that he never deletes these tweets!


Never apologizing or admitting guilt is what carried him to victory through his supporters. Could you imagine how badly he would be roasted if he acknowledged his prior words existed?
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Old 04-14-2017, 03:09 PM   #610
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Russian jets intercepted around Japan ....

14 APR: JASDF jets scrambled to intercept 2 x Tu-142, 1x IL-20, 2 x Il-38, 1 x Su-24.
P.S. 11, 12, 14 Apr - The crisis is gaining momentum https://t.co/nHg9CDmfro


Currently around 4am in Pyongyang, they usually test between 8and10am.
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Old 04-14-2017, 03:46 PM   #611
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"intercept" means they just flew towards the other aircraft to get them to alter course so they don't breach sovereign airspace. the canadian air force intercepts russian aircraft all the time. it's quite common and frequently done for pilot training on both sides. obviously russia isn't sending aircraft to attack japan or anyone else in that region.

this kind of anxious panic probably isn't too healthy for you, man.
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Old 04-14-2017, 04:23 PM   #612
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Russia's playing games. I normally wouldn't​ see this as some saber rattling on all sides, but with sheer unpredictability sitting in the oval office, having a dick measuring contest that spirals out or control isn't exactly out or the realm of possibility.
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Old 04-14-2017, 06:32 PM   #613
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Old 04-14-2017, 09:39 PM   #614
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"intercept" means they just flew towards the other aircraft to get them to alter course so they don't breach sovereign airspace. the canadian air force intercepts russian aircraft all the time. it's quite common and frequently done for pilot training on both sides. obviously russia isn't sending aircraft to attack japan or anyone else in that region.

this kind of anxious panic probably isn't too healthy for you, man.
Many really need to tone down their anxious panic over every tiny thing Russia does - on this board and elsewhere.
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Old 04-15-2017, 09:07 AM   #615
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Many really need to tone down their anxious panic over every tiny thing Russia does - on this board and elsewhere.


It's not just about Russia.

It's about picking your battles. When you panic and cry wolf at every instance of everything that the media signals and throw your arms in the air about our shitty president, you diminish the value of true criticism (how about his inability to pass legislation? How about ineffective leadership? Who gives a shit about Mar-a-Lago? Was Russian trolling not a thing during the last 10 years?)
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Old 04-15-2017, 07:03 PM   #616
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Videos Show Violent Clashes Between Trump Supporters and Demonstrators in Berkeley | Mediaite

Pro-Trump, anti-Trump protesters clash in Berkeley - CNN.com
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Old 04-15-2017, 08:56 PM   #617
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A failed missile test. This is it, Trump will launch war today or tomorrow.
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Old 04-15-2017, 09:39 PM   #618
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Also, hearing about "Holocaust Centers" for gays in Chechnya.



Chechnya Opens 'Concentration Camps For Gay Men'


Was hearing on Public Radio yesterday how terrifying it is for the LG community. Could it be even worse for the BTQ community. The spoke about total fear and often total isolation.
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Old 04-15-2017, 09:51 PM   #619
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As you stated (and I quoted) to go into one of the most conservative regions in the USA, and make a dent, is still progress right? If hings continue the way they are on a national and state level, that 6.8% can easily be made up in the next year and a half if the Dems run a good campaign. That is a huge question mark.
.
It is progress. Thanks I hadn't heard the %'s.

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It goes back to the Howard Dean strategy (how funny is it that a scream killed his campaign given Trump's behaviour?) of competing in all 50 states. No you are not going to win Kansas outright, and you may not for decades, but you have to make inroads by engaging local people, the grassroots party, encouraging people to run in districts knowing full well that they have no shot but maybe they erode the difference by a couple of % points each time. The Republicans would have laughed at Texas being within Democratic reach, but here we are and it's very possible that Texas will go red-purple-blue within the next 10-12 years. Yes, that is largely demographics BUT if the Democrats weren't willing to invest time and money in building up districts that are going to be competitive in 3-4 election cycles, they probably wouldn't be.

I get the sense from some people on the left that they are positively giddy anytime the Democratic party doesn't achieve some goal that they've set. Look, personally I find this party way too far to the right, they are the equivalent of the Canadian conservatives so I am not a voter who would be drawn that way, though may approve of some fiscal policies. But there is also such a thing as reality and the reality is that you don't go left in fucking Wichita 5 months after it goes +27 Trump. WTF honestly.
Thanks. I thought H Dean' s was a great idea!

I heard on Public Radio that the mike was off with the audio feed that day/eve so that his "scream" sounded so loud because the audience's mike feed was lower than usual. At least one person interviewed who had been on the floor said that he didn't sound that loud. It was an appropriate sound level ratio.
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Old 04-15-2017, 09:59 PM   #620
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When you give Nazi salutes you gotta get slammed.
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