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Old 11-17-2016, 05:25 PM   #941
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If Trump were in this position, how would you feel?

i'd likely agree with myself intellectually -- it does seem odd that there's THIS much of a discrepancy between the EV and the popular vote. there's something really uncomfortable about it. however, stability and continuity and following the rules are important when it comes to the peaceful transfer of power. further, since i know something about history, i know that the EC was designed precisely to keep a person like Trump out of the oval office.

meanwhile, the GOP would be drafting up a constitutional amendment as we speak and screaming about the will of the people.
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Old 11-17-2016, 05:30 PM   #942
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I know the electoral college is crappy, and heck Donny was right to bitch about it.

But, as it stands now, and I saw this on Facebook, this is the equivalent to complaining about losing a baseball game when your hits column indicated you were the better team, but the runs column did not.

I get it, the rules of the game need to change, but the result is the result and assuming no rigging was involved, he very sadly won fair and square. I'm not happy about the results of course. We should talk about changing future games. But this one was already played.
The point is, the larger the discrepancy, the more obvious the need for change, hence the importance of pointing it out.

But this is getting behind the pale at this point. We might be talking about millions plural by the time it's all said and done.

And because "their guy" won, no one will be in congress to champion change.

As Irvine said, it would be nice if the EC voters did their job next month and prevented this shit, but, HAHAHA yeah right. And for that reason, they no longer truly serve a purpose, and the system needs to be thrown out.
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Old 11-17-2016, 05:39 PM   #943
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
i'd likely agree with myself intellectually -- it does seem odd that there's THIS much of a discrepancy between the EV and the popular vote. there's something really uncomfortable about it. however, stability and continuity and following the rules are important when it comes to the peaceful transfer of power. further, since i know something about history, i know that the EC was designed precisely to keep a person like Trump out of the oval office.



meanwhile, the GOP would be drafting up a constitutional amendment as we speak and screaming about the will of the people.

The gap seeming larger than it is is a result of discretization though. The electoral vote is a few tens of thousands of votes apart in a few states (which is nothing in the grand scheme) from not being the lopsided 290-232 you see.

It was a "landslide" electorally on margins. It could be a lot closer with just some minor tweaks. She could've won with just some minor tweaks.

Of course, I'm highlighting the issue that we all already knew about. My Floridian vote is so much more valuable than someone else's. It's part of that minor tweak that can tip the ship in the opposite direction. Also, as 212 mentioned, folks in small states have stronger delegate representation per vote. That's another issue.

But I don't think this election particularly is the one where we can be crying foul as though the EC failed us. It didn't. It did exactly what it was supposed to do. Folks in Florida wanted Trump. So did folks in Ohio. So did folks in PA. Small margins, but the EC behaved exactly as it was supposed to. Her getting more of the popular vote still... well, that doesn't bug me more per say. I just think we need a little reform on the EC. Balance the power per vote.

I still disagree with a full popular vote system, because I imagine folks like Trump would actually win that. Popularity contests are a bad idea, as it dissuades campaigns from listening to the issues of folks that aren't in densely populated areas. What I do believe is voter turnout should be targeted and buying power per state should be a thing. California didn't just choose Clinton... it overwhelmingly chose Clinton. Florida? Pennsylvania? Not so much. Why winner-take-all is a thing is beyond me. It's archaic and belongs in the 1800s. As a result of it today, half of the voters don't bother their ass to vote.
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Old 11-17-2016, 05:42 PM   #944
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The point is, the larger the discrepancy, the more obvious the need for change, hence the importance of pointing it out.

But this is getting behind the pale at this point. We might be talking about millions plural by the time it's all said and done.

And because "their guy" won, no one will be in congress to champion change.

As Irvine said, it would be nice if the EC voters did their job next month and prevented this shit, but, HAHAHA yeah right. And for that reason, they no longer truly serve a purpose, and the system needs to be thrown out.

Well it's important that you understand that I'm not inherently disagreeing with you. I just don't think shock and awe about the system is the right way to go. I don't feel like yelling "bullshit" or reacting just because my candidate was the receiving end of the system.

Maybe I just think this conversation is better had not immediately after an election.
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Old 11-17-2016, 05:43 PM   #945
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Agreed with LN7. I see both sides of the EC issue.
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Old 11-17-2016, 05:46 PM   #946
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Romney put out a cigar on Trump's chest then Trump threw him on a grill and stole his clothes. They need to make amends.

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Old 11-17-2016, 05:49 PM   #947
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Well it's important that you understand that I'm not inherently disagreeing with you. I just don't think shock and awe about the system is the right way to go. I don't feel like yelling "bullshit" or reacting just because my candidate was the receiving end of the system.

Maybe I just think this conversation is better had not immediately after an election.


I don't think anyone is yelling "bullshit."

I think what just happened shows us the flaws of the system and thus begs reexamination and perhaps change.

One party rule (which we now have) is enabled in part because of the overrepresentation of rural America. At least in 2012, the D's in Congress represented more votes than the R's, despite the R's controlling Congress by a significant margin.

It seems to wildly advantage one party more than the other.
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Old 11-17-2016, 05:49 PM   #948
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If Trump were in this position, how would you feel?
Of course they would be saying our elections are determined by the EC. Everyone knows this. They were all gleeful and boastful that the E C gave a huge advantage. They said the election would end early because of the advantage. Just go back and look at the threads.
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Old 11-17-2016, 05:52 PM   #949
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What if the EC votes per state were awarded proportionally, like many of the Democratic primaries? Keep the number of votes per state unchanged.

Haven't done the math yet, but as Hillary overwhelmingly won the big blue states, made big inroads in some red states such as Texas and Arizona, and barely lost swing states, she'd probably come out on top. With the will of individual people in every state accounted for.
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Old 11-17-2016, 05:54 PM   #950
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Romney put out a cigar on Trump's chest then Trump threw him on a grill and stole his clothes. They need to make amends.

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I'd say this was actually really clever, but the creator was someone who calls himself "Aryan Wisdom," so nah.
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Old 11-17-2016, 05:56 PM   #951
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Of course they would be saying our elections are determined by the EC. Everyone knows this. They were all gleeful and boastful that the E C gave a huge advantage. They said the election would end early because of the advantage. Just go back and look at the threads.


Speak for yourself.
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Old 11-17-2016, 05:58 PM   #952
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Speak for yourself.
You never said the Electoral College favored Hillary this year?
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Old 11-17-2016, 05:59 PM   #953
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Of course they would be saying our elections are determined by the EC. Everyone knows this. They were all gleeful and boastful that the E C gave a huge advantage. They said the election would end early because of the advantage. Just go back and look at the threads.

I mean I said it as well. Because that was and still is the reality. There's an electoral democrat bias. Of neutral states, it's not an equal starting score. The democrats have to win less swing states in order to win outright. This is Trump-Clinton independent. It's just the current state of the nation with liberalism dominating highly populated cities, which at the moment represent a decent amount of certain state populations. It's why Georgia was close to blue. It's why Texas is getting closer.

And the polls absolutely were not suggestive of Trump success. So, those claims were founded. Trump might've won, but aside from qualitative assessments (of which I give Oregoropa his credit for his inside look into PA), there were little arguments made in Trump's favor by anyone other than simple "gut feelings." Which don't mean anything.

Besides the point though. I made this point and I'll say it again. Were Trump to win (and he did), it would be a "landslide." Basically, if he were poised to win, it wouldn't be some carefully calculated "oh he won Ohio plus this stage plus that state and barely squeaked out a 272-267 win." That was never likely. Either the polls behaved correctly and he lost in a total landslide, or he won in a landslide. The one thing you can't deny is the consistency of the polls. Anomalies are... well, they're anomalies. He wasn't going to just randomly win PA and not Florida, for example. Either the polls behaved, or we they missed something. Clearly they missed something. Probably voter turnout on both ends.
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Old 11-17-2016, 06:08 PM   #954
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Well it's important that you understand that I'm not inherently disagreeing with you. I just don't think shock and awe about the system is the right way to go. I don't feel like yelling "bullshit" or reacting just because my candidate was the receiving end of the system.

Maybe I just think this conversation is better had not immediately after an election.
I've been disillusioned with the EC since I was 12. I'm sure if you wanted to dig though my post history you'd find out of election cycle examples of me mentioning it.
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Old 11-17-2016, 06:12 PM   #955
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The polls were not that bad, RCP and 538 each had Hillary winning by one state. The punditry was terrible, their bias clouded their predictions. They should have called it a toss-up . On the EC. It should not be 538, perhaps 438 or even 435. Throw out the 100 over-weighted Senate EC votes. I'm not looking for a result or outcome, but a better system than we have now. And let's keep in mind Trumps EC landslide was 2 states, the one your parents did not vote in and one more.
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Old 11-17-2016, 06:21 PM   #956
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Either the polls behaved, or we they missed something. Clearly they missed something. Probably voter turnout on both ends.


ha, ha, I got to laugh

not WE missed something

I posted that all season the polls were over-estimating Hillary voters and under-estimating Trumps voters in all the primary votes, and based on that and all the states that had her only up 1-2 points, he should win those states

that post was labeled, a troll
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Old 11-17-2016, 06:24 PM   #957
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I've been disillusioned with the EC since I was 12. I'm sure if you wanted to dig though my post history you'd find out of election cycle examples of me mentioning it.
I went to go see if I could, quickly, and while this was during an election, it was a lopsided one in my "team's" favor (I'm an independent btw, and only registered as a dem in order to vote in the primary. And in the 2008 and 2012 election I did not vote for the dem nominee. 2008 was simply because I waited to long to register my absentee ballot while I was in college):

http://www.u2interference.com/forums....php?p=5587641

Ahhh how naive I was.
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Old 11-17-2016, 06:36 PM   #958
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The polls were not that bad, RCP and 538 each had Hillary winning by one state. The punditry was terrible, their bias clouded their predictions. They should have called it a toss-up . On the EC. It should not be 538, perhaps 438 or even 435. Throw out the 100 over-weighted Senate EC votes. I'm not looking for a result or outcome, but a better system than we have now. And let's keep in mind Trumps EC landslide was 2 states, the one your parents did not vote in and one more.

For like the 50th time, and I'm not bothering to explain it again, RCP doesn't mean shit and has no immediate statistical relevance. Nor does any aggregate pollster.

Most polls had Clinton ahead on small to medium margins in battleground states, minus Ohio.

There was no bias. Statistics favored Clinton. You cite 538. They (via Nate Silver) had Clinton at 70-30. Most reliable models with sound statistical methods had such odds, based upon historical polling data and trends. Deny it if you want to, that was the reality.
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Old 11-17-2016, 06:40 PM   #959
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I went to go see if I could, quickly, and while this was during an election, it was a lopsided one in my "team's" favor (I'm an independent btw, and only registered as a dem in order to vote in the primary. And in the 2008 and 2012 election I did not vote for the dem nominee. 2008 was simply because I waited to long to register my absentee ballot while I was in college):

http://www.u2interference.com/forums....php?p=5587641

Ahhh how naive I was.
I've always disliked it, and hated it since 2000. That election was a robbery, not this one. The court says stop counting with Bush 500 votes ahead and 130,000 not counted?

The whining about this election is rediculous.

LN7, I did the math back in 2000, a person's vote in WY had about 8 times the weight of someone from CA,

Another way of saying it would be people in Wyoming get 8 votes to B212's one.
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Old 11-17-2016, 06:42 PM   #960
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ha, ha, I got to laugh



not WE missed something



I posted that all season the polls were over-estimating Hillary voters and under-estimating Trumps voters in all the primary votes, and based on that and all the states that had her only up 1-2 points, he should win those states



that post was labeled, a troll

And here we get to the point. You were claiming polls were over-estimating. And what grounds do you have to make such a claim? Are you also a pollster? No. you have nothing but your deep fat gut.

I live in a world where I have to back the shit up I say with evidence. I know you being deep and all... a gut feeling might be evidence. I'm really glad Axver pointed out the whole Huff Post v. Nate Silver thing. Where HP had some stupid 98% Clinton winning chance. Which was bullshit. Silver's exact choice of words were what you need to hear. There's no bias in his model. There's a rigorous method and his methods were backed up by data and facts. He acknowledged that that doesn't mean his model will be correct. In fact, models are wrong all the time. But it was still backed up by facts. Something you didn't do.

I don't give a shit that you guessed correctly. If you don't show your work, no credit.
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