Trump General Discussion

[BVS]

Outside of his thank you notes to the Klan, Aryan Nation, and the elderly; Trump will be sending some out to all those that stayed home and Gary Johnson.


This isn't rocket science. He brought out his white nationalist allies, and there was low voter turn out. And Johnson threw in a small wrench, he'd cry but he's too stoned.


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[Headache in a Suitcase]

What if the EC votes per state were awarded proportionally, like many of the Democratic primaries? Keep the number of votes per state unchanged.

Haven't done the math yet, but as Hillary overwhelmingly won the big blue states, made big inroads in some red states such as Texas and Arizona, and barely lost swing states, she'd probably come out on top. With the will of individual people in every state accounted for.

This is absolutely how it should be. If New York state foes 80/20 blue, then 20% of the electorate should go for the Republican candidate, and so on and so on and so on.

It would encourage more people to vote and eliminate the silliness of placing so much stock in just a handful of states.

It'll make driving the vote count in every state important, and will more accurately reflect the will of the people and match the popular vote, without putting too much stock into just saying in the major population centers.

 

[bono_212]

This is absolutely how it should be. If New York state foes 80/20 blue, then 20% of the electorate should go for the Republican candidate, and so on and so on and so on.

It would encourage more people to vote and eliminate the silliness of placing so much stock in just a handful of states.

It'll make driving the vote count in every state important, and will more accurately reflect the will of the people and match the popular vote, without putting too much stock into just saying in the major population centers.

Would that fix the vote power issue, though? There's still an issue there, to me, that not all votes are equal. I can't think right now if that would address it or not.

 

[LemonMelon]

I like the idea, primarily because I detest the concept that "winning" a state by 1 vote and 5 million votes has the same value.

 

[Oregoropa]

Trump Gladiator. Another funny clip.

American Gladiator


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[deep]

Divide the number of electoral votes each state has into its population. One will be surprised at the variances.

 

[Oregoropa]

ha, ha, I got to laugh



not WE missed something



I posted that all season the polls were over-estimating Hillary voters and under-estimating Trumps voters in all the primary votes, and based on that and all the states that had her only up 1-2 points, he should win those states



that post was labeled, a troll

This map shows the big sea change from Romney to Trump. The Rust Belt was the big surge in support.




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[LuckyNumber7]

I like the idea, primarily because I detest the concept that "winning" a state by 1 vote and 5 million votes has the same value.

I like that I've suggested it three times now and now someone else suggests it and y'all are talking about it ?

 

[BVS]

This map shows the big sea change from Romney to Trump. The Rust Belt was the big surge in support.

View attachment 10989


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What was the voter turn out in 2012 compared to this year?


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[Headache in a Suitcase]

ha, ha, I got to laugh

not WE missed something

I posted that all season the polls were over-estimating Hillary voters and under-estimating Trumps voters in all the primary votes, and based on that and all the states that had her only up 1-2 points, he should win those states

that post was labeled, a troll

I don't think it was the post...

 

[deep]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-voter-turnout-wasnt-way-down-from-2012/

 

[LemonMelon]

I like that I've suggested it three times now and now someone else suggests it and y'all are talking about it ?

You're just ahead of your time, that's all

 

[LemonMelon]

No, Voter Turnout Wasn’t Way Down From 2012 | FiveThirtyEight

I figured that initial count would rise substantially.

A whole lot of Clinton votes have rolled in since then.

 

[anitram]

This map shows the big sea change from Romney to Trump. The Rust Belt was the big surge in support.

Yes, that's pretty obvious.

When are their factories coming back? Every single day from inauguration day on, this question should be asked. Maybe twice on Sundays for good measure.

 

[Oregoropa]

What was the voter turn out in 2012 compared to this year?


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Not sure. Luzerne County, PA (Wilkes-Barre) near where I live went +5 Obama to +19 Trump.

I would imagine the turnout was higher in many of these areas, where Trump's message resonated.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

You're just ahead of your time, that's all

 

[deep]

Would that fix the vote power issue, though? There's still an issue there, to me, that not all votes are equal. I can't think right now if that would address it or not.

Divide the number of electoral votes each state has into its population. One will be surprised at the variances.

Wyoming population 586,107 divide 3 EC votes = 195,369 people per EC vote

California population 39,144818 divide 55 EC votes = 711,724 people per EC vote


ok, so Wyoming voters only have 3.64 times the value of a CA voter


the smaller the state population, the move value votes are in the EC.

 

[deep]

seriously it is not all that unlikely that one could get 5-6 million more votes and still lose in the EC



also, don't think the GOP can't win national popular votes, GOP never goes hard and heavy in CA or NY.

 

[monkeyskin]

So I distributed the results proportionally. Where rounding gave a variance, I either added 1 to the victor to round up or deducted 1 from the loser to round down:

Hillary 266 (259 + 7 in rounding)
Donnie 262 (254 + 8 in rounding)
Gary 8 (10 - 2 in rounding)
Jill 1
Evan 1

Aligns with the popular vote with no majority. When this happens in countries like the UK or Australia they're forced to sway independents or form coalition governments to rule. Gary could swing it for either Hillary or Donnie in this example.

 

[monkeyskin]

seriously it is not all that unlikely that one could get 5-6 million more votes and still lose in the EC







also, don't think the GOP can't win national popular votes, GOP never goes hard and heavy in CA or NY.

But would they try harder if the EC votes weren't all lost causes? Maybe Hillary would have stopped by Wisconsin at least once too.

 

[deep]

since you seem to be a numbers guy, what is the most lop-sided the vote could be and still give a win to a popular vote loser

and I am only talking in theory, based on this system we have.

 

[deep]

But would they try harder if the EC votes weren't all lost causes? Maybe Hillary would have stopped by Wisconsin at least once too.

yeah, but she had the most brilliant team ever assembled, both google and FB, signed on early and offered to do anything they could for her, CNN, Wolf Blitzer, called and asked Podesta for questions he should ask Trump and Ted Cruz, she got debate questions in advance, Her team had money to burn

so there is absolutely no second guessing of the campaign and the choices they made.

 

[monkeyskin]

since you seem to be a numbers guy, what is the most lop-sided the vote could be and still give a win to a popular vote loser



and I am only talking in theory, based on this system we have.

Definitely not a numbers guy, just a slow day at the office with excel open. I'm sure any number of analysts would balk at my rounding method.

So I can't answer your question, but would love to know the answer from someone else.

Off the top of my head though, it would depend on how individual states vote. If you win the popular vote of some states by 90+% but that's almost all of your turnout, would the other states' EC numbers crush you anyway? Depends on which states, right?

I'm not questioning the outcome of this election, it's just interesting to look at hypotheticals in such a historical and contentious race.

Edit - Cameron won the last UK election with around a third of the popular vote and was able to form a majority government under that system. In this US election, all the conditions were there for Trump to clinch it decisively where it counted, at the EC.

 

[deep]

In theory
A person could get 11 votes and the other candidate 70,000,000
And 11 votes wins the Electoral College.

 

[monkeyskin]

In theory
A person could get 11 votes and the other candidate 70,000,000
And 11 votes wins the Electoral College.

In theory.

In theory, communism works! In theory.

But yes, that certainly is pretty lopsided if those 70m votes only count for 10 EC votes or less. Those 11 votes equalling 11 EC votes must belong to Clinton Foundation donors in this example.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

since you seem to be a numbers guy, what is the most lop-sided the vote could be and still give a win to a popular vote loser



and I am only talking in theory, based on this system we have.

I mean just find the most valuable delegate-per-vote states and find award the states in order of least population to most population until you hit 270, make the candidate win those states by 1 vote, and have them not get any votes in the states they lose and you'll have your relatively optimized theoretical scenario.

Realistic theoretical scenario? I don't know. But that optimal scenario would be tens of millions of votes behind, I imagine.

 

[deep]

11 states add up to 270
Those 11 states all have a voter turnout of one person
The other 39 states have a 90% turnout and they all vote for the other guy.
11 to 70,000,000

 

[monkeyskin]

Well, there you go.

Although I like deep's scenario of having only 21 votes. It can be like backgammon! Uber-cautious Hillary sticks on 17. Donnie obviously goes bust like his numerous failed businesses. Hillary wins.

 

[deep]

these 11 states add up to 270 electoral college votes

1) California- 55
2) Texas- 38
3) Florida- 29
4) New York- 29
5) Illinois- 20
6) Pennsylvania- 20
7) Ohio- 18
8) Georgia- 16
9) Michigan- 16
10) North Carolina- 15
11) New Jersey- 14

note : These 11 states that add up to 50.2% of the EC vote add up to 57% of the US population
the 39 other states and DC that get 268 EC or 49.8% and represent only 43% of US population


2 Texas is the only one that is reliable GOP, and some in here think it will flip in 4, 8 12 years for sure,

8 Georgia could flip also.

the other 9 go Democrat or lean Dem or are trending Dem in the future


why the Dems would want to end the EC when they almost have a lock just shows how emotional and irrational this lost has them. I know it was not supposed to be an election where the results determined the outcome, it was supposed to be a coronation, Obama's third term, he said he would consider it a personal insult to him if she lost. Well the people heard him and answered.

 

[prbiker15]

Donald Trump Selects Mike Flynn As National Security Adviser: Report | The Huffington Post