Holy John
Acrobat
Since yesterday, october 7th, Afghanistan has been under United Kingdom/United States attacks, as you know it. Here are my thoughts on this war, Bin Laden's message to the United States and the fragile balance of the Middle-East.
First of all, I must precise that I approve a "war" on terrorism, maybe not the way it is now, but I approve war on terrorism. I do not approve, though, what people will probably do with it (i.e.: nothing when it will be over or the re-inforcement of the US foreing politics). This new war must learn us new ways to think, new politics, all in all, a new mentality.
You must be very careful with what you see on television, what you hear on radio and what you read on Internet and in the papers. You must diversify your sources and then make your own idea about the war. The United States is a master of war propaganda and the Talibans won't claim that they suffer from the war. Censorship still exists (as well as misinformation). As an example, some sources said the US/UK attacks were on Kaboul directly, while a hidden reporter in Kaboul in contact with Radio-Canada claims that only the airport, situated "far enough" of Kaboul war touched. The sources indicated thet the city was in a state of panic, while the hidden reporter said there was no panic at all. All of this is psychologic war. The attacks you've seen on TV today may have been the same images from yesterday. No one is too sure about what to believe here where I am. So, you must diversify your sources, read the papers from all around the world, check TV networks from other countries and then, only then, make your own idea about it. I personnaly place the Pentagon Officials in the same box as the other sources I hear to really make my ideas on it. The attacks we see on TV now are of little use for the military, but they mostly are to make a double-psychologcal effect. In America, people are happy to "counter-strike". In the Middle-East, it makes people more and more angry about the United States. And here, it divides people on the question.
Second, I've listened over and over the Bin Ladden's message. Then, I lisetened to a couple of analysts, from Canada, Quebec, United States and France. From there on, I have my idea on Mr. Ladden's message.
- Do not misunderstand him : he is ready to fight to death.
- The next "big" terrorist attack will probably not be in the United States. Ladden said, more than any other country, Saudi Arabia. My thoughts are that Ladden is preparing, or at least seeks for an attack on the Petrol Companies, probably not to cut the US Military's ressources of petrol, but to shake the economy. After all, gold and petrol are "safe" values for the investors. We saw it after the attacks in New York and Washington : investors rushed for gold and petrol. So it wouldn't surprise me if Ladden, as I say, planify or seeks attakcs on Petrol fields in Saudi Arabia.
- Terrorists movement are silent now in Europe (i.e.: probably Germany, England and France) and in North America (i.e.: Canada and the United States). Only a "degradation" of the war will make them wake up. After all, you can make a bomb with milk and chlorinate.
----
Bioterrorism, Nuclear terrorism is very very complex. Yes, you should think of it and protect yourselves about it, but the use of it is very complex.
The Middle-East situation : Yasser Arafat said he wouldn't tolerate any other anti-war or anti-Isra?l protest, and he did. During a protest today, his police shot down 2 protesters. I believe this is a message to the United States stating : "You see, I'm trying to make something out here, do the same with your Isra?l". He wants his country and he really needs it now. He knows he can lost control anytime with his people. As bigger as the war will be, the bigger the anti-USA/Isra?l movement will be.
Pakistan : It is with resignation that the General President said he was with the United States' Coalition. Now, he, too, is loosing control. Fanatics are willing to attack any US/UK soldier on their soil. There, as well, control is no longer solid. The same applies here : as bigger as the war will go, bigger the movement will be.
The "onde de choc" created by this psychological war is going out, even in Indonesia. Remember the Soviet Union/Afghanistan war : all the islamic world rushed in Afghanistan to help them out against the Red Army. The same will probably happen this time, maybe not to protect the Talibans ("quoique" some people will go there for that), but to protect Islam. By the way, it is an interesting fact : Bush claims islam is a peaceful religion, while Ladden use it for violent actions. It is very interesting to see how much conceptions of a religion you can have, esp. when this religion has no "pope". (An Islamic guy said that on the radio : having the equivalent of a pope would solve a lot of problems). Interpretations can be very very dangerous.
After the war : Afghanistan politics are like it's geography : hard and complex. While the US now helps the Northern Alliance (and use it instead of sending massive ground troops), it does not want it to form the next Afghan Government, simple because the Alliance does not represent all the minorities of Afghanistan. Too bad Commander Massoud is dead, it would be interesting to hear his thoughts on this. Did he wanted to take the power, or did he simply wanted to put the Talibans out, then form a step-government ? Clearly, the new Commander of the North Alliance said that they re-consider taking Kaboul. In the last news, they don't want to take it now, but they are ready for a massive attack in 5 days at the maximum.
So, what the after-war will be like in Afghanistan ? No one really knows I guess. The United Nations should be more involve in the situation as they are now... but we all know the United Nations : "what for do they exists ? we can do the job without arguing with those little no-where countries..."...
Military strikes on other countries : this would be the worst thing to do. You could be sure that all the middle-east would be an enormous bomb. And what country would be under strike ? Algeria, Sudan, ??? My thoughts are that if there's other countries under military attacks, it will probably be in the east-African region.
This was my brainstorm..
cheers
------------------
La resignacion es un suicido permanente
* *M-26-7* *
First of all, I must precise that I approve a "war" on terrorism, maybe not the way it is now, but I approve war on terrorism. I do not approve, though, what people will probably do with it (i.e.: nothing when it will be over or the re-inforcement of the US foreing politics). This new war must learn us new ways to think, new politics, all in all, a new mentality.
You must be very careful with what you see on television, what you hear on radio and what you read on Internet and in the papers. You must diversify your sources and then make your own idea about the war. The United States is a master of war propaganda and the Talibans won't claim that they suffer from the war. Censorship still exists (as well as misinformation). As an example, some sources said the US/UK attacks were on Kaboul directly, while a hidden reporter in Kaboul in contact with Radio-Canada claims that only the airport, situated "far enough" of Kaboul war touched. The sources indicated thet the city was in a state of panic, while the hidden reporter said there was no panic at all. All of this is psychologic war. The attacks you've seen on TV today may have been the same images from yesterday. No one is too sure about what to believe here where I am. So, you must diversify your sources, read the papers from all around the world, check TV networks from other countries and then, only then, make your own idea about it. I personnaly place the Pentagon Officials in the same box as the other sources I hear to really make my ideas on it. The attacks we see on TV now are of little use for the military, but they mostly are to make a double-psychologcal effect. In America, people are happy to "counter-strike". In the Middle-East, it makes people more and more angry about the United States. And here, it divides people on the question.
Second, I've listened over and over the Bin Ladden's message. Then, I lisetened to a couple of analysts, from Canada, Quebec, United States and France. From there on, I have my idea on Mr. Ladden's message.
- Do not misunderstand him : he is ready to fight to death.
- The next "big" terrorist attack will probably not be in the United States. Ladden said, more than any other country, Saudi Arabia. My thoughts are that Ladden is preparing, or at least seeks for an attack on the Petrol Companies, probably not to cut the US Military's ressources of petrol, but to shake the economy. After all, gold and petrol are "safe" values for the investors. We saw it after the attacks in New York and Washington : investors rushed for gold and petrol. So it wouldn't surprise me if Ladden, as I say, planify or seeks attakcs on Petrol fields in Saudi Arabia.
- Terrorists movement are silent now in Europe (i.e.: probably Germany, England and France) and in North America (i.e.: Canada and the United States). Only a "degradation" of the war will make them wake up. After all, you can make a bomb with milk and chlorinate.
----
Bioterrorism, Nuclear terrorism is very very complex. Yes, you should think of it and protect yourselves about it, but the use of it is very complex.
The Middle-East situation : Yasser Arafat said he wouldn't tolerate any other anti-war or anti-Isra?l protest, and he did. During a protest today, his police shot down 2 protesters. I believe this is a message to the United States stating : "You see, I'm trying to make something out here, do the same with your Isra?l". He wants his country and he really needs it now. He knows he can lost control anytime with his people. As bigger as the war will be, the bigger the anti-USA/Isra?l movement will be.
Pakistan : It is with resignation that the General President said he was with the United States' Coalition. Now, he, too, is loosing control. Fanatics are willing to attack any US/UK soldier on their soil. There, as well, control is no longer solid. The same applies here : as bigger as the war will go, bigger the movement will be.
The "onde de choc" created by this psychological war is going out, even in Indonesia. Remember the Soviet Union/Afghanistan war : all the islamic world rushed in Afghanistan to help them out against the Red Army. The same will probably happen this time, maybe not to protect the Talibans ("quoique" some people will go there for that), but to protect Islam. By the way, it is an interesting fact : Bush claims islam is a peaceful religion, while Ladden use it for violent actions. It is very interesting to see how much conceptions of a religion you can have, esp. when this religion has no "pope". (An Islamic guy said that on the radio : having the equivalent of a pope would solve a lot of problems). Interpretations can be very very dangerous.
After the war : Afghanistan politics are like it's geography : hard and complex. While the US now helps the Northern Alliance (and use it instead of sending massive ground troops), it does not want it to form the next Afghan Government, simple because the Alliance does not represent all the minorities of Afghanistan. Too bad Commander Massoud is dead, it would be interesting to hear his thoughts on this. Did he wanted to take the power, or did he simply wanted to put the Talibans out, then form a step-government ? Clearly, the new Commander of the North Alliance said that they re-consider taking Kaboul. In the last news, they don't want to take it now, but they are ready for a massive attack in 5 days at the maximum.
So, what the after-war will be like in Afghanistan ? No one really knows I guess. The United Nations should be more involve in the situation as they are now... but we all know the United Nations : "what for do they exists ? we can do the job without arguing with those little no-where countries..."...
Military strikes on other countries : this would be the worst thing to do. You could be sure that all the middle-east would be an enormous bomb. And what country would be under strike ? Algeria, Sudan, ??? My thoughts are that if there's other countries under military attacks, it will probably be in the east-African region.
This was my brainstorm..
cheers
------------------
La resignacion es un suicido permanente
* *M-26-7* *
