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Old 02-09-2008, 01:22 PM   #141
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Quote:
Originally posted by martha


Any voting stats by county to back this up?
Of the 45 Florida counties from Orlando in Orange County and then going north, Crist won 40 of the counties and only lost 5. First the 5 he lost and then the 40 he won:


5 counties in Northern Florida Crist lost:


Gadsden County

Davis 66.25%
Crist 32.45%

Leon County

Davis 55.82%
Crist 42.30%

Jefferson County

Davis 54.47%
Crist 43.28%

Madison County

Davis 49.23%
Crist 48.20%

Alachua County

Davis 54.94%
Crist 42.74%




40 counties in Northern Florida that Crist won:

Escambia County

Crist 59.09%
Davis 38.98%

Santa Rosa County

Crist 68.78%
Davis 29.27%

Okaloosa County

Crist 76.36%
Davis 21.68%

Walton County

Crist 67.81%
Davis 29.88%

Holmes County

Crist 62.58%
Davis 34.74%

Washington County

Crist 61.39%
Davis 34.54%

Bay County

Crist 65.26%
Davis 30.78%

Jackson County

Crist 52.24%
Davis 45.09%

Calhoun County

Crist 50.79%
Davis 45.70%

Gulf County

Crist 55.62%
Davis 40.86%

Liberty County

Crist 49.94%
Davis 46.81%

Franklin County

Crist 49.89%
Davis 46.69%

Wakulla County

Crist 50.56%
Davis 46.22%

Taylor County

Crist 56.54%
Davis 41.48%

Hamilton County

Crist 50.30%
Davis 46.62%

Suwannee County

Crist 63.70%
Davis 33.84%

Lafayette County

Crist 62.37%
Davis 35.73%

Dixie County

Crist 52.69%
Davis 41.92%

Levy County

Crist 55.82%
Davis 40.28%

Gilchrist County

Crist 59.59%
Davis 35.94%

Columbia County

Crist 59.74%
Davis 36.97%

Union County

Crist 59.52%
Davis 37.51%

Marion County

Crist 56.76%
Davis 39.50%

Volusia County

Crist 50.11%
Davis 47.23%

Flagler County

Crist 51.81%
Davis 45.79%

Putnam County

Crist 55.51%
Davis 41.23%

St. Johns County

Crist 67.27%
Davis 30.46%

Duval County

Crist 58.86%
Davis 38.93%

Nassau County

Crist 68.87%
Davis 28.42%

Clay County

Crist 73.00%
Davis 24.46%

Bradford County

Crist 62.59%
Davis 34.23%

Baker County

Crist 69.39%
Davis 27.82%

Pasco County

Crist 53.09%
Davis 42.21%

Hernando County

Crist 52.44%
Davis 42.80%

Citrus County

Crist 56.24%
Davis 38.55%

Sumter County

Crist 65.26%
Davis 31.91%

Lake County

Crist 61.62%
Davis 35.33%

Brevard County

Crist 53.62%
Davis 42.76%

Seminole County

Crist 61.13%
Davis 36.53%

Orange County

Crist 53.33%
Davis 44.34%




Given Crist popularity in Bible thumping Northern Florida, I'm sure he would do alright in a northern state like Ohio if he were on the ticket with McCain. I'm sure he would do well in Missouri and Colorado as well.
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Old 02-09-2008, 05:51 PM   #142
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Quote:
Originally posted by toscano


So you'd have a tough time deciding if you want Hillary Clinton or John McCain choosing your supreme court nominee ? Really ?

No what I meant was that there are some things I like about Clinton (end to war in Iraq) and some things I like about McCain (low taxes/low spending), so I would I have a tough time deciding.
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Old 02-09-2008, 06:02 PM   #143
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Quote:
Originally posted by anitram
The Republican field is already very classy:

"Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? Because her father is Janet Reno." - John McCain in 1998

Chelsea is hott. I guess he doesn't find her attractive since he needs women his own age who are in their 100's.

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Old 02-09-2008, 06:05 PM   #144
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Also quite a beauty, Barbara Bush:

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Old 02-09-2008, 06:51 PM   #145
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McCain got thumped in Kansas. From USA Today:

Quote:
en. John McCain's aides downplayed a thumping from Mike Huckabee in Kansas's caucuses Saturday, calling it a small bump on an inevitable road to the Republican presidential nomination. But the loss again underscored McCain's problems with staunch conservatives in his party.

Anti-abortion activists and other social conservatives have had a big role in the Kansas GOP, and some of Huckabee's supporters say his appeal to them was a key to his victory in Saturday's lightly attended caucuses. Those who did vote chose the former Arkansas governor over McCain by more than 2-to-1, ignoring an endorsement of McCain by Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., who earlier dropped his bid for the nomination.
Values voters!
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Old 02-09-2008, 06:52 PM   #146
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Quote:
Originally posted by Strongbow


about as much as of a liability as it was in 2006 when:

Charlie Crist 52.18%

Jim Davis 45.11%

in the 2006 Gubernatorial election in Florida. Only 8 counties in Florida failed to vote for Charlie Crist, 3 of them in the south. If you can win in a state like Florida especially 30 counties across northern Florida which is in the Bible Belt, I think the rumor is not the liability you claim it to be.



and this guy got 100% of the vote to lead the evangelicals crusade against gay life style choices
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Old 02-09-2008, 07:05 PM   #147
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Quote:
Originally posted by Strongbow


I realize you are one of the ones that is smart enough to figure out this election is not about slogans, stances, speaking styles

but only about electoral votes (period)


and for your candidate to win

Florida is almost required to go red

and for that to happen

Obama has to get the nomination
Because if Hillary does
McCains odds go way down of winning Florida

Can McCain win Florida against Hillary?

The popular Crist seems the best way to accomplish that.

unfortunately it is not his 50+ years of bachelorhood that hurts

but his lack of any significant public girlfriends,
his public statements that his sexuality is no ones business
and his preference for spending his private time with close male friends


this is enough smoke
to dowse any running mate speculation
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Old 02-10-2008, 04:45 AM   #148
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Quote:
Originally posted by deep



Because if Hillary does
McCains odds go way down of winning Florida

Can McCain win Florida against Hillary?

Do you really think that many would-be Hillary voters will choose McCain over Obama though? As has already been pointed out, most Democrats will be happy with either nominee though they have their preference about who they want the nominee to be.

I suppose the argument that it would be independents who value experience that would swing the vote McCain's way? I'm not totally convinced that such a movement would happen among independents but I could see the argument.

I do see evidence of people who would be willing to vote for Obama over McCain (at least here in FYM which I know is not entirely representative of the "real world" but still. . .) These same people would vote McCain over Hillary.
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Old 02-10-2008, 04:00 PM   #149
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Quote:
Originally posted by maycocksean
I do see evidence of people who would be willing to vote for Obama over McCain (at least here in FYM which I know is not entirely representative of the "real world" but still. . .) These same people would vote McCain over Hillary.

Be careful with this one

I have read in here things like

"Me and everyone I know" are doing this and that


Well, I could post the same thing.

We all live in our very own "little echo chambers".

FYM is a bit of an echo chamber.


In considering this election, in Nov.
All we must consider is how the indiviual states will go.

You did post somewhere in here that you thought you got what I was saying,

"If it comes down to the electoral college"



The "electoral college" is all it ever comes down to.

There are times when it is not close.

Decided by one state or two.


The last two elections have been one state.


Will this election come down to only one or two states?


I believe that is the only way to consider this.


It is looking more and more like Obama may get the nomination.

I don't care that much about the polls right now.
They matter in the primaries, as they to indicate trends in those elections.


If the primaries were held in October/ November 2007, the nominees would be Giuliani and Hillary. (period)

We see how quickly peoples' opinions and who they plan to vote for can and do change.


There is a lot of good will for Obama. It will be historic to have a “qualified”, competent candidate with his heritage as the nominee.

I don’t disagree.


I also remember the ground swell of support and enthusiasm for Geraldine Ferraro as the first woman to be nominated by one of the two major parties for high office.

After Obama gets the nomination. America will have proved we are one nation.

Baseball broke the color barrier by putting Jackie Robinson on the playing field as an equal player. (Well, that is how history portrays it)

Jackie Robinson did not have to win the World Series to accomplish the goal proving Baseball was intregrated.

America does not have to elect Obama.

Quote:
Originally posted by maycocksean

I suppose the argument that it would be independents who value experience that would swing the vote McCain's way? I'm not totally convinced that such a movement would happen among independents but I could see the argument.

There are enough independents and moderates that will vote for McCain, a proven “change agent”.
One that not only has a “stance” about reaching across the isle but a career record of doing so.
If you like Obama's platform, "stances" about reaching across the isle, one nation, bi-partisanship and all that - you got the real deal- Vote McCain!


I believe this election most likely will be close, with in 1-4 percent of the popular vote.

2004 was 3 % and Bush won by only one state Ohio.

I believe Hillary will do very well in Ohio, she did much better in Florida than Obama.

Yes, I know there was no campaigning. Obama did do a national ad buy that did get played in Florida. It was stopped after it ran for awhile.

I believe Hillary still is the stronger in candidate in both Ohio and Florida.

And I believe there are current polls that support this.

These two states are most likely the key to the whole election


Something to keep in mind also.

The Latino or Hispanic vote, ( I don’t know which, if either is the preferred term) is a major consideration in this election. McCain has quite a bit of support there. Hillary has as much and probably more.

Obama is not strong there at all, the advantage could go to McCain. There are western states that could swing for McCain over Obama that Hillary might win.
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Old 02-10-2008, 04:04 PM   #150
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Deep, I think you overrated Hillary and underrate Obama. You keep saying "electoral votes" and "certain states" but rarely why Hillary would do a better job in those states than Obama.
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Old 02-10-2008, 04:14 PM   #151
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Quote:
Originally posted by phillyfan26
Deep, I think you overrated Hillary and underrate Obama. You keep saying "electoral votes" and "certain states" but rarely why Hillary would do a better job in those states than Obama.

Quote:
Originally posted by deep
I believe Hillary still is the stronger in candidate in both Ohio and Florida.

And I believe there are current polls that support this.

These two states are most likely the key to the whole election


Something to keep in mind also.

The Latino or Hispanic vote, ( I don’t know which, if either is the preferred term) is a major consideration in this election. McCain has quite a bit of support there. Hillary has as much and probably more.

Obama is not strong there at all, the advantage could go to McCain. There are western states that could swing for McCain over Obama that Hillary might win.
the Florida vote?


the CA vote?

and all other states with Hispanic voting polulations- Hillary polls much higher than Obama


Quote:
Democrats have 141 delegates in Ohio to be allocated proportionally. A pre-Super Tuesday Columbus Dispatch poll had Clinton way out in front, winning 2 to 1 over Obama, and the state's mostly white working-class demographic suits her. Exit polls from Super Tuesday show Clinton leading Obama among voters earning less than $50,000 a year. But one of Clinton's key groups is largely missing from the state. "The wild card is we don't have the Latino population that California has," says Ohio University-Lancaster history professor Ken Heineman. Latino voters helped Clinton win California.
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Old 02-10-2008, 05:38 PM   #152
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I appreciate the analysis, deep.

It really helps me understand why you'd prefer to see a Clinton nomination.

I'm still not absolutely certain that the Latino vote, for example, would swing McCain's way rather than Obama's. Again, I'm not sure that Democratic support is so candidate-specific that if their preferred candidate doesn't get the nom they'll stay home or vote for the Republicans. But then I suppose it wouldn't be about the Dems as much as it would the independents. And you're saying that these independents in states like FL or Ohio would swing towards Clinton but away from Obama. I'm doubtful of that, but, we'll see. . .

The goal is that we both be wrong. If Hillary gets the nomination, then she wins and I'm wrong. I could live with that. If Obama gets the nomination and he wins, then you're wrong and I know you could live with that too.
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Old 02-10-2008, 05:53 PM   #153
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Hasn't Obama been winning more battleground primaries than Hillary though?
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Old 02-10-2008, 06:02 PM   #154
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Quote:
Originally posted by phillyfan26
Hasn't Obama been winning more battleground primaries than Hillary though?
Well, I know on Super Tuesday, Hillary won more of the states with lots of delegates (Massachusetts, New York, California). Wouldn't those states also have more electoral votes? My questions is whether a Clinton win in those states Democratic primaries translates into a Obama electoral college loss in the general election in those same states--or in Ohio or Florida. That's the part I'm not convinced of.
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Old 02-10-2008, 06:08 PM   #155
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Quote:
Originally posted by maycocksean


Well, I know on Super Tuesday, Hillary won more of the states with lots of delegates (Massachusetts, New York, California). Wouldn't those states also have more electoral votes? My questions is whether a Clinton win in those states Democratic primaries translates into a Obama electoral college loss in the general election in those same states--or in Ohio or Florida. That's the part I'm not convinced of.
Do you honestly believe that a Republican is going to win Massachusetts, New York or California in the general? Not a chance.

Ohio/Florida are a different story, but the big states Hillary are Democratic strongholds anyway.
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Old 02-10-2008, 07:26 PM   #156
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Re: Re: The Fracturing of a Party...

Quote:
Originally posted by deep


this wii die down a lot
once McCain locks up the nomination

and McCain can and will most likely beat Obama in Nov.

Hillary would give McCain a more difficult contest.
This is completely the opposite of what reality is...Clinton would NOT be a harder candidate to beat for John McCain. If Clinton is the nominee the Democrats will quite probably lose the election...and deservedly so - if they choose Clinton over Obama they will hand the Whitehouse to McCain. Nobody wants BUSH/CLINTON/BUSH/CLINTON - that would be absolute disaster. It's time for the Democratic party to wake the fuck up and take a chance for real change...for once!!!
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Old 02-10-2008, 07:34 PM   #157
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Re: Re: Re: The Fracturing of a Party...

Quote:
Originally posted by Harry Vest
BUSH/CLINTON/BUSH/CLINTON
what are you jibbery about?





nobody ever voted for that ticket

and it can not and will not be on the ballot this November
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Old 02-10-2008, 07:49 PM   #158
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Quote:
Originally posted by anitram


Do you honestly believe that a Republican is going to win Massachusetts, New York or California in the general? Not a chance.

Ohio/Florida are a different story, but the big states Hillary are Democratic strongholds anyway.
No, I do not believe the Republicans will win those states, regardless of whether Obama or Clinton is the Democratic nominee. My question is this--is Florida/Ohio a different story in terms of outcome? The argument--at least as I understand it--is that swing voters in Florida/Ohio would vote for McCain over Obama but choose Clinton over McCain. I tend to think they won't. If anything, swing voters are more likely to swing towards Obama than towards Clinton.
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Old 02-10-2008, 09:36 PM   #159
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You'd really need to have more information about who exactly the "swing voters" in those particular states are; it's not like that's a nationally uniform category demographically. And also some sense of why they voted in the particular party primary they did (if they did, since most swing voters don't vote in primaries). In theory, primary exit polls might help with that, but since Florida's Democratic primary didn't officially "count" this time, turnout may have been exceptionally nonrepresentative and therefore those results might be less reliable than usual. According to the exit polls, Hillary did win with independents in Florida's Democratic primary, 40% to Obama's 30%; while McCain got 44% of the independent vote in Florida's Republican primary. (Total Democratic turnout was 1.7. million; total Republican turnout, 1.9 million; independents comprised 17% of ~1500 exit poll respondents in both cases.)
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Old 02-11-2008, 05:17 AM   #160
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Quote:
Originally posted by yolland
You'd really need to have more information about who exactly the "swing voters" in those particular states are; it's not like that's a nationally uniform category demographically. And also some sense of why they voted in the particular party primary they did (if they did, since most swing voters don't vote in primaries). In theory, primary exit polls might help with that, but since Florida's Democratic primary didn't officially "count" this time, turnout may have been exceptionally nonrepresentative and therefore those results might be less reliable than usual. According to the exit polls, Hillary did win with independents in Florida's Democratic primary, 40% to Obama's 30%; while McCain got 44% of the independent vote in Florida's Republican primary. (Total Democratic turnout was 1.7. million; total Republican turnout, 1.9 million; independents comprised 17% of ~1500 exit poll respondents in both cases.)
Right, right. That's just what was I gonna say. I was just. . uh. . testing to see if you knew. . . Yeah, that's it.
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