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Old 05-19-2006, 05:37 PM   #1
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the flight of the Iraqi middle class

when you give them chaos, they flee chaos:

[q]BAGHDAD, Iraq, May 18 — Deaths run like water through the life of the Bahjat family. Four neighbors. A barber. Three grocers. Two men who ran a currency exchange shop.

But when six armed men stormed into their sons' primary school this month, shot a guard dead, and left fliers ordering it to close, Assad Bahjat knew it was time to leave.

"The main thing now is to just get out of Iraq," said Mr. Bahjat, standing in a room heaped with suitcases and bedroom furniture in eastern Baghdad.

In the latest indication of the crushing hardships weighing on the lives of Iraqis, increasing portions of the middle class seem to be doing everything they can to leave the country. In the last 10 months, the state has issued new passports to 1.85 million Iraqis, 7 percent of the population and a quarter of the country's estimated middle class.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/19/wo...=1&oref=slogin

[/q]



yet another failure of this occupation.

if you cannot provide a certain level of stability, all efforts are in vain as those who would have the greatest investments to make in a new society are forced out of that society before it can even begin.
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Old 05-19-2006, 06:26 PM   #2
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In Turkey, the Iraq war was very unpopular. Our tour guide gave us an explanation of the Turkish view of the war. They didn't like Saddam, but they think the war made the region more unstable. They have a group in Turkey that's listed as a terrorist organization in the U.S. and Turkey, the PKK, a Kurdish separatist group that's killed at least 30,000 people in the last twenty years or so. They're afraid of Iraq dividing up into parts because the north of Iraq is Kurdish, and they're afraid the situation in their southeastern area will get even worse because a Kurdish state is their worst nightmare.
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Old 05-19-2006, 09:05 PM   #3
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Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by Irvine511
yet another failure of this occupation.

if you cannot provide a certain level of stability, all efforts are in vain as those who would have the greatest investments to make in a new society are forced out of that society before it can even begin.
The type of occupation necessary to prevent Muslim insurgency would move to the top of your critical list.

It is as if Iraq would be better off with a dictator.
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Old 05-19-2006, 09:39 PM   #4
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Issuing of passports does not equal a mass exodus of refugees from the country, since the removal of Saddam there has been a tremendous influx of exiles back to their homeland.
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Old 05-19-2006, 10:30 PM   #5
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Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by Irvine511
when you give them chaos, they flee chaos:

[q]BAGHDAD, Iraq, May 18 — Deaths run like water through the life of the Bahjat family. Four neighbors. A barber. Three grocers. Two men who ran a currency exchange shop.

But when six armed men stormed into their sons' primary school this month, shot a guard dead, and left fliers ordering it to close, Assad Bahjat knew it was time to leave.

"The main thing now is to just get out of Iraq," said Mr. Bahjat, standing in a room heaped with suitcases and bedroom furniture in eastern Baghdad.

In the latest indication of the crushing hardships weighing on the lives of Iraqis, increasing portions of the middle class seem to be doing everything they can to leave the country. In the last 10 months, the state has issued new passports to 1.85 million Iraqis, 7 percent of the population and a quarter of the country's estimated middle class.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/19/wo...=1&oref=slogin

[/q]



yet another failure of this occupation.

if you cannot provide a certain level of stability, all efforts are in vain as those who would have the greatest investments to make in a new society are forced out of that society before it can even begin.
Do you know what it was like to get out of Iraq from 1979 to 2003? Do you realize the hell the people went through during that time period? People have the opportunity to do things now that they did not prior to Saddam. Lots of people in Eastern Europe picked up their things and left after the Berlin Wall came down in 1989. That wasn't a bad thing, but a natural reaction to new opportunities. Its taken years for Bosnia to get to the point where it is today, and it will take years for Iraq to arrive at a point where there is no significant immigration out of the country. Its not a sign of failure, but what naturally happens in such situations.
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Old 05-20-2006, 01:36 AM   #6
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Re: Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by STING2


Do you know what it was like to get out of Iraq from 1979 to 2003? Do you realize the hell the people went through during that time period? People have the opportunity to do things now that they did not prior to Saddam.
But, was this the reasoning for going into the war? NO

Could this issue have been handled without war?

How many other countries have this problem?
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Old 05-20-2006, 02:15 AM   #7
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Re: Re: Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar


But, was this the reasoning for going into the war? NO

Could this issue have been handled without war?

How many other countries have this problem?
State of the Union speech 2002 would contradict this argument that the humanitarian argument for removing Saddam was a post-Bellum invention.
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Old 05-20-2006, 08:17 AM   #8
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Re: Re: Re: Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by A_Wanderer
State of the Union speech 2002 would contradict this argument that the humanitarian argument for removing Saddam was a post-Bellum invention.
Which question and how?
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Old 05-20-2006, 09:30 AM   #9
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I retract that ill-considered example, but the case for intervention on a humanitarian base did exist before and the Bush adminstration made it clear that the goal would be a democratic Iraq - that goal was not invented after the invasion.

Since the war the influx of people back to their homeland contrasted sharply with the predictions of a mass exodus before the war by opponents - the article that this thread is based on just shows the number of passports that have been issued in a country where peoples freedom of movement had been restricted until very recently as well as an anecdote, I want to see some statistics showing a flight of Iraqis from the country in large numbers rather than a single statistic and a story.
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Old 05-20-2006, 09:42 AM   #10
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I've gotten over my jetlag now, and can tell you more about the Turkish position on Iraq. The Turkish view of democracy is that you can't just start at the top in a matter of weeks or months. If you try that, you just replace one dictator with another. Democracy is something that has to grow, that a people learn over time. This view has alot to do with the experience of the Turkish people themselves. They got rid of an absolute monarch, the sultan, and set up a republic, but started out with a one-party state under a benevolent ruler, Ataturk. Ataturk gave Turkey a ground to grow democracy on, so to speak. I don't want to screw up this thread and start a thread on Turkey, but, rather, it's worth it to mention what a U.S. ally's views on Iraq are, and this thread *is* about Iraq.
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Old 05-20-2006, 09:47 AM   #11
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Re: Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by nbcrusader


The type of occupation necessary to prevent Muslim insurgency would move to the top of your critical list.

It is as if Iraq would be better off with a dictator.
So when are we going to invade the root of the 9/11 perpetrators and a state preaching anti-Western values as policy ? Saudi Arabia. Oh yes, that's right, their leaders are big friends of the Bush family...oh well, damn the facts, cross them off the "evil axis" list.......
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Old 05-20-2006, 12:38 PM   #12
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Re: Re: Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar


But, was this the reasoning for going into the war? NO

Could this issue have been handled without war?

How many other countries have this problem?
As to your first question, it does not matter! The Coalition invaded Iraq to insure that Saddam was verifiably disarmed and that Iraq was brought into compliance with 17 UN Security Council Resolutions. That has been accomplished. Given the removal of Saddam's regime, it is necessary that a new government and military be set up to stabilize the country.

The United States did not liberate Germany from Nazi control in World War II for the sake of its citizens, but it does not change the fact that in doing this, Germany as a country benefited in the long run. It is the same with Iraq.

The second question is obviously NO! The United States and the coalition spent 12 years doing everything short of war to bring about change in Iraq. Everything failed. Saddam had an iron grip on the country, and no one in the country could challenge a man with 430,000 troops, 2,000 tanks, 2,000 armored personal carriers, 2,000 artillery pieces, 300 combat aircraft, hundreds of helicopters, and unaccounted for stocks of WMD to include 1,000 liters of anthrax, 500 pounds of mustard gas, 500 pounds of sarin gas, and over 20,000 bio/chem capable shells. Nothing short of a large foreign invasion would have removed Saddam from power. The history of Iraq from 1979 to 2003 proves this, as every other method was tried and failed!

The third qoustion was often used as arguement not to intervene in Bosnia and Kosovo. It is also used as an arguement not to intervene in Darfur. The coalition intervened in Iraq because the planets security depended on it. It was not a humanitarian intervention. But even though it was not, this question is never a good arguement against humanitarian intervention anywhere on the planet. Just because you can't put out all the fires, does not mean you don't try to put out even one.
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Old 05-20-2006, 12:55 PM   #13
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Re: Re: Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by toscano


So when are we going to invade the root of the 9/11 perpetrators and a state preaching anti-Western values as policy ? Saudi Arabia. Oh yes, that's right, their leaders are big friends of the Bush family...oh well, damn the facts, cross them off the "evil axis" list.......
Saudi Arabia was not the root of Al Quada. Saudi Arabia has done a lot to combat Al Quada in its own country which is why Al Quada was not based there.

Saudi Arabia has had extensive ties to the rest of the world since the 1940s. The Relationship that the United States has with Saudi Arabia today was started by Franklin Roosevelt back in the 1940s, not the Bush family. Cheap Saudi Oil has helped to fuel the planets economic growth for the past half century.
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Old 05-20-2006, 01:38 PM   #14
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Saudi Arabia is one of the most, if not the most corrupt place on this planet and certainly one of the worst, if not the worst place for a woman to have the misfortune of being born in.

But cheap oil trumps humanitarianism and basic human dignity.
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Old 05-20-2006, 02:00 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by anitram
Saudi Arabia is one of the most, if not the most corrupt place on this planet and certainly one of the worst, if not the worst place for a woman to have the misfortune of being born in.

But cheap oil trumps humanitarianism and basic human dignity.
Cheap oil fuels economic growth which means developed countries have more money to spend on foreign humanitarian projects and other things that would not be possible in a depressed or weaker economic environment.
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Old 05-20-2006, 02:01 PM   #16
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Re: Re: Re: Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by STING2


Saudi Arabia was not the root of Al Quada. Saudi Arabia has done a lot to combat Al Quada in its own country which is why Al Quada was not based there.

Saudi Arabia has had extensive ties to the rest of the world since the 1940s. The Relationship that the United States has with Saudi Arabia today was started by Franklin Roosevelt back in the 1940s, not the Bush family. Cheap Saudi Oil has helped to fuel the planets economic growth for the past half century.
Do you know what Wahhabi'ism is ?

http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Pa...ia&ID=SP112306
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Old 05-20-2006, 02:06 PM   #17
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by toscano


Do you know what Wahhabi'ism is ?

http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Pa...ia&ID=SP112306
Yes, I also know they are not all apart of Al Quada. Saudi Arabia has its extremist groups, but the Government of Saudi Arabia is against Al Quada and has done everything it can to destroy it because it considers Al Quada a threat to its existence.
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Old 05-20-2006, 02:38 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally posted by anitram
Saudi Arabia is one of the most, if not the most corrupt place on this planet and certainly one of the worst, if not the worst place for a woman to have the misfortune of being born in.

But cheap oil trumps humanitarianism and basic human dignity.
If you want to know just how awful it is to be a woman in Saudi Arabia, read Jean Sasson's "Princess Trilogy". It's a true story about a princess in Saudi Arabia who is fighting for rights for Saudi women.
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Old 05-20-2006, 03:57 PM   #19
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Re: Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by STING2


Do you know what it was like to get out of Iraq from 1979 to 2003? Do you realize the hell the people went through during that time period? People have the opportunity to do things now that they did not prior to Saddam. Lots of people in Eastern Europe picked up their things and left after the Berlin Wall came down in 1989. That wasn't a bad thing, but a natural reaction to new opportunities. Its taken years for Bosnia to get to the point where it is today, and it will take years for Iraq to arrive at a point where there is no significant immigration out of the country. Its not a sign of failure, but what naturally happens in such situations.


do you have percentages on the middle class that left Eastern Europe post-1989? was Eastern Europe a cauldron of violence in 1989? were there tremendous economic incentives for people to return to their countries in 1989? were the cities destroyed and the lives of the average Eastern European plagued by sectarian violence in 1989?

the salient question is whether or not the one-quarter of the middle class has left. that will remain to be seen, but it is farily clear that they are making preparations. when those who would have the most to gain from a stable, democratic Iraq don't have the faith to "stay the course,"what kind of a future can we hope to have?

i think verte makes vaild points.
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Old 05-20-2006, 04:38 PM   #20
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Re: Re: Re: the flight of the Iraqi middle class

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Originally posted by Irvine511




do you have percentages on the middle class that left Eastern Europe post-1989? was Eastern Europe a cauldron of violence in 1989? were there tremendous economic incentives for people to return to their countries in 1989? were the cities destroyed and the lives of the average Eastern European plagued by sectarian violence in 1989?

the salient question is whether or not the one-quarter of the middle class has left. that will remain to be seen, but it is farily clear that they are making preparations. when those who would have the most to gain from a stable, democratic Iraq don't have the faith to "stay the course,"what kind of a future can we hope to have?

i think verte makes vaild points.
I don't have the percentages off hand, but are you assuming that the fall of the Berlin Wall did not lead to large numbers of people leaving Eastern Europe in the early 1990s? Have you ever heard of Yugoslavia? If you want a clear definition of what a CIVIL WAR is and what Sectarian Violence is really like, look no further than Yugoslavia in the early 1990s!

The flow of people out of these area's in Europe was clear, but it did not lead to the end of these countries, nor did it mean the end of several of the new countries that have formed out of the old Yugoslavia. Despite all the Sectarian differences in Bosnia and the deaths of nearly 10% of the entire population in a 4 year period, that country and its three ethnic groups are moving foward. Bosnia has come a long way and currently enjoys a standard of living better than China or Thailand and is almost to the level of Brazil. Very impressive considering the devestation and sectarianism that is there.

In addition, the aid that the United States pumps into Iraq currently dwarfs any sort of wealth that the Iraqi middle class has, after 25 years of rule under Saddam. The new Iraq is not going to prosper because of a tiny middle class that had it good under Saddam. It will prosper because of the massive new opportunities that all Iraqi's will now have to provide for themselves now that Saddam and his wars are gone.

Saddam spent 25 years running the country into the ground, its going to take many years to fix and develop the country.
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