The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

[kiwilad]

New survey just in from TargetSmart for Ohio early voters. Like Florida, they show a 7% lead for Clinton in Ohio. They showed an 8% lead for Clinton in Florida and that was before the recent boost in the Latino votes that have happened in recent days.

We could be looking at a landslide. I have said for months there is a hidden Clinton voting block, and these numbers are bearing that out.

If that ends up happening that would turn an incredibly depressing moment in history into an incredibly positive one.

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[Axver]

Thank god such stuff hasn't entered the political discourse in NZ. Yet. It exists here too though.
Perhaps when there's no external enemy to be afraid of and unite against together, people find enemies closer to home.

Whenever I go back to NZ it's amazing just how much more peaceful politics seem than the soap opera on this side of the ditch. It obviously has its problems, and I wish the Key government would take a walk, but you just need to look at Australia or the US to be reminded how much worse it can be.

 

[LemonMelon]

I'm certain that Clinton will win and have said so repeatedly in this thread, even when things looked rather bleak for a day or two, but I'm still not ready to say this will be a landslide.

 

[the iron horse]

New survey just in from TargetSmart for Ohio early voters. Like Florida, they show a 7% lead for Clinton in Ohio. They showed an 8% lead for Clinton in Florida and that was before the recent boost in the Latino votes that have happened in recent days.

We could be looking at a landslide. I have said for months there is a hidden Clinton voting block, and these numbers are bearing that out.

I think it might go the other way. Despite Trump's faults, he has struck a fine tuned chord with many Americans who are sick and tired of failed promises and no active solutions to address our problems. Both the Republicans and the Democrats do NOTHING but glory in their power. So telling that the Bush family and other big goverment Republicans have thrown their support to Clinton.

I have friends and know people who have never voted who say they will be voting for Trump. If that happens across the country, Trump will win.

Donald Trump is no saint, I agree, but compared to what Hillary Clinton and the powers that be represent, he seems like a breath of fresh air.

 

[BEAL]

That's The tic tacs


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[Irvine511]

I think it might go the other way. Despite Trump's faults, he has struck a fine tuned chord with many Americans who are sick and tired of failed promises and no active solutions to address our problems. Both the Republicans and the Democrats do NOTHING but glory in their power. So telling that the Bush family and other big goverment Republicans have thrown their support to Clinton.



I have friends and know people who have never voted who say they will be voting for Trump. If that happens across the country, Trump will win.



Donald Trump is no saint, I agree, but compared to what Hillary Clinton and the powers that be represent, he seems like a breath of fresh air.

This is the Trump voter, and this is the problem the GOP is going to have to deal with in the aftermath of this election.

It's also telling that though the Clinton campaign is upbeat, they don't know (and can't know) how many IH's are out there. The white men who never vote but may be compelled to vote Trump to stick it to the system that has brought them down. So they are being cautious. Because, unlike Trump, they know what they don't know. (Trump doesn't know what he doesn't know).

 

[kiwilad]

Donald Trump is no saint, I agree, but compared to what Hillary Clinton and the powers that be represent, he seems like a breath of fresh air.

This has been confusing me. This acceptance that Trump is not a great candidate but people will vote for him "compared to Hillary".

But... weren't there like, a dozen GOP candidates up for grabs and Republican voters overwhelmingly chose this horrific, racist, bigoted, misogynistic, privileged twat?

I watched the Van Jones clips where he goes out to Gettysburg and talks to Republicans about why they're voting for Trump. They all accept he's a twat, but they believe Clinton is worse. They seem to be justifying their vote on the "lesser of two evils" argument, as they KNOW Trump is horrifc, but you know, their hands are tied.

Well their hands weren't tied during the primaries.

I don't buy it. All those Republicans who had so many choices overwhelmingly voted this guy to be their candidate. He had already shown his colours.

It isn't enough, now that it's crunch time, to hide behind the "I know he's a twat but what can I do when I think Hillary is worse" line. I call bullshit on that. Millions of people elected this guy, knowing who and what he was. They had choices then. Lots of them. They chose the sociopath. They chose Trump. They didn't vote Trump because it was "anyone but Hillary". They HAD A CHOICE. And they CHOSE him.

And I just can't work out why.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

This has been confusing me. This acceptance that Trump is not a great candidate but people will vote for him "compared to Hillary".

But... weren't there like, a dozen GOP candidates up for grabs and Republican voters overwhelmingly chose this horrific, racist, bigoted, misogynistic, privileged twat?

I watched the Van Jones clips where he goes out to Gettysburg and talks to Republicans about why they're voting for Trump. They all accept he's a twat, but they believe Clinton is worse. They seem to be justifying their vote on the "lesser of two evils" argument, as they KNOW Trump is horrifc, but you know, their hands are tied.

Well their hands weren't tied during the primaries.

I don't buy it. All those Republicans who had so many choices overwhelmingly voted this guy to be their candidate. He had already shown his colours.

It isn't enough, now that it's crunch time, to hide behind the "I know he's a twat but what can I do when I think Hillary is worse" line. I call bullshit on that. Millions of people elected this guy, knowing who and what he was. They had choices then. Lots of them. They chose the sociopath. They chose Trump. They didn't vote Trump because it was "anyone but Hillary". They HAD A CHOICE. And they CHOSE him.

And I just can't work out why.

Excellent post, this .

 

[BVS]

I think it might go the other way. Despite Trump's faults, he has struck a fine tuned chord with many Americans who are sick and tired of failed promises and no active solutions to address our problems. Both the Republicans and the Democrats do NOTHING but glory in their power. So telling that the Bush family and other big goverment Republicans have thrown their support to Clinton.



I have friends and know people who have never voted who say they will be voting for Trump. If that happens across the country, Trump will win.



Donald Trump is no saint, I agree, but compared to what Hillary Clinton and the powers that be represent, he seems like a breath of fresh air.

It's amazing to me that anyone would or could believe what Trump is offering up are "solutions", or that he's not big government.

You have two individuals that have a very unique perspective, they actually have been in the seat of the presidency, they know what it takes and they see a clown that is unfit for the job. Therefore they are voting against their own personal benefit. THAT should be the telling part. The Bush's have absolutely NOTHING to benefit from voting in a Clinton. This is the nonsense that got us a serial liar, misogynistic, racist clown this close to the presidency to begin with.


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[VintagePunk]

This is perhaps the best explanation for Trump's rise that I have seen.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/o...ts-left-behind.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

When Hillary Clinton started at Yale Law School in 1969, there was only one woman in the United States Senate. It was legal for a man to rape his wife, but abortion was mostly outlawed.

That is hideously fucked up on so many levels.

As of early October, more than half of men believed that Mr. Trump respected women either “some” or “a lot.”

Men don’t need more masculine posturing or promises to restore them to forever-gone greatness. What they need is to make their own move toward gender equality, to break down the stereotypes and fetters of masculinity. Feminists, understandably, have focused on women; we have enough to do without being tasked with improving the lot of often-misogynistic men, too. If the white men who feel ignored, disrespected and lost want to see their lives improve, they should take a cue from the great feminist strides women have made and start to embrace that progress. Life really is better with more fluid gender roles that allow individuals to do what they’re good at instead of what’s socially prescribed. Every feminist I know will tell you that men bring much more to the table than physical strength or a paycheck, and that we would love a world in which men were free to be resilient and tender, ambitious and nurturing, expressive and emotional.

Bingo.

Excellent piece.

 

[Hewson]

This has been confusing me. This acceptance that Trump is not a great candidate but people will vote for him "compared to Hillary".

But... weren't there like, a dozen GOP candidates up for grabs and Republican voters overwhelmingly chose this horrific, racist, bigoted, misogynistic, privileged twat?

I watched the Van Jones clips where he goes out to Gettysburg and talks to Republicans about why they're voting for Trump. They all accept he's a twat, but they believe Clinton is worse. They seem to be justifying their vote on the "lesser of two evils" argument, as they KNOW Trump is horrifc, but you know, their hands are tied.

Well their hands weren't tied during the primaries.

I don't buy it. All those Republicans who had so many choices overwhelmingly voted this guy to be their candidate. He had already shown his colours.

It isn't enough, now that it's crunch time, to hide behind the "I know he's a twat but what can I do when I think Hillary is worse" line. I call bullshit on that. Millions of people elected this guy, knowing who and what he was. They had choices then. Lots of them. They chose the sociopath. They chose Trump. They didn't vote Trump because it was "anyone but Hillary". They HAD A CHOICE. And they CHOSE him.

And I just can't work out why.

Its the same argument for voting for Hillary for many though. Plenty of folks only voting for her because Trump is the other option.
So shouldn't you also chastise Dems who selected her in the primary over all the other viable Democratic choices?

Spoiler

Oh yeah Bill cut a deal with the DNC that she run unopposed and only Independent Bernie chose to disobey him

Its almost over...just 2 more days.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

So a few things...

Trump for a long time couldn't crack the 40% ceiling in his own party. He was winning primaries in the mid 30s. He's a product of too many candidates all knocking each other off. In no way did he get a big mandate from his own party. By the time it was down to Trump, Cruz and Kasich it was already too late.

It wasn't until after everyone else dropped out that all the Republicans who said they'd be horrified to have Trump as their nominee started sucking at the orange teet. A few said hell nah from the beginning and stuck to their hell nahs throughout, and when this guy gets curb stomped tomorrow, they'll be the ones able to take the high ground.


But generally speaking I do agree with the idea of a non-politician winning the White House instead of the same old same old. A lot of people do. But thanks to the ineptitude of the GOP, that idea is blown for a number of years.

What will be most interesting will be to see what the GOP does next. Do they double down on the hate, or so they try to bridge the gap and pull themselves out of the mud?

I actually think they'll double down.

 

[Oregoropa]

Just a reminder. Final Electoral Maps by 12 am East Coast Time. Dixville Notch, NH is the first to report then.

I wish you all safe travels to your polling places to exercise our sacred right as American citizens.



Oh, and Fuck Ted Cruz


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[Moonlit_Angel]

I wish you all safe travels to your polling places to exercise our sacred right as American citizens.

View attachment 10958

Oh, and Fuck Ted Cruz

As heated as the discussions have been here this election cycle, I do love that we can all come together in our feelings about Ted Cruz .

Seconding the "safe travels" wishes, too .

 

[Danny Boy]

I actually think they'll double down.

.

 

[Irvine511]

someone i know who's political knowledge i deeply trust gave me a very conservative rundown of where he thinks the states will go, and they gave HRC about 300 EVs (having her lose OH and FL, but win NC and IA). my takeaways:

1. she's going to win Iowa; her ground game is powerful
2. OH is crapshoot, no one knows anything, no one trusts it, they gave it to Trump
3. if -- *if* -- Latinos show up on Tuesday the way they did last week then it's in the bag; they are not yet convinced that it's an expansion of voters rather than a shifting of when people vote

as always, fwiw ...

 

[BoMac]

Just a reminder. Final Electoral Maps by 12 am East Coast Time. Dixville Notch, NH is the first to report then.

I wish you all safe travels to your polling places to exercise our sacred right as American citizens.

View attachment 10958

Oh, and Fuck Ted Cruz


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I think Ted Cruz will be just fine. He owns the Chicago Cubs after all.















Wait...that's not Ted Cruz?!

 

[BEAL]

that's a good point on the shifting of vote timing. Could it be more that people just wanted to get it done early compared to years past? Or did Trump mobilize a whole lot more voters....

Either scenario is good for Clinton as numbers just need to match what Obama has pulled in the past, especially with Hispanics.

My feeling is that this turns out to be a landslide for HC. While there's plenty of apathy towards this system, most of that stems from the younger crowd and they don't turn up to vote anyway.

I do feel that the hispanic, and female votes go strongly to HC and that blows Trump out.

Could easily be wrong, and Trump could win (scary), but more and more the data that is coming in points to Clinton winning. We just don't know the final score.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Both candidates will be fucking up my commute tomorrow, so I'd like to thank them for that.

 

[gump]

I actually think they'll double down.

The problem is that nobody even knows who "they" are as a party at this point. Ryan may lose the Speakership in January (especially if Trump ends up blaming him for a narrow loss). The Freedom Caucus will expand while the Republican House majority will decrease by 10-15 seats. So the GOP is more divided than ever, and I don't think they are able to articulate a rational direction as a party.

I still think the long-term implication is of a splintered GOP between a nationalist party and a more traditional, European-style conservative party that appeals a lot to southern Democrats as well. This sort of violates Duverger's law, but this seems to be a trend elsewhere in the world.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The problem is that nobody even knows who "they" are as a party at this point. Ryan may lose the Speakership in January (especially if Trump ends up blaming him for a narrow loss). The Freedom Caucus will expand while the Republican House majority will decrease by 10-15 seats. So the GOP is more divided than ever, and I don't think they are able to articulate a rational direction as a party.

I still think the long-term implication is of a splintered GOP between a nationalist party and a more traditional, European-style conservative party that appeals a lot to southern Democrats as well. This sort of violates Duverger's law, but this seems to be a trend elsewhere in the world.

I think there will be a big push towards a candidate who can run on the same ideals but not be such a looney with so much baggae, especially if it's somewhat close in a lot of battle ground states.

That's the key... if the battlegeound / tipping point states are close, but Clinton wins most of them on her way to a percieved blowout in the EC, then I think we see more of the same, only with a more sane candidate.

The douchebags who've stuck with him the entire time did so cause they are happy with the message, if not the candidate. I think they'll see a race where they lost, but could have won if some states tipped the opposite way as a sign that this is the way of the future. Especially if they do okay down ballot.

If it's a complete blow out, races expected to be close aren't, and even some states they thought were in the bag flip, then I think you'll see your GOP civil war.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I'm expecting a GOP civil war due to a blowout. With Kasich salivating at 2020.

 

[bono_212]

Cool: http://m.xkcd.com/1756/

I think Ted Cruz will be just fine. He owns the Chicago Cubs after all.















Wait...that's not Ted Cruz?!

Oh my god, when he stepped up to the mic Friday, I was like, gtfo, Cruz. I honestly didn't know what Ricketts looked like until that moment.

 

[DaveC]

*****ALERT*****
LANDSLIDE WARNING
In effect for all 50 states and the District of Columbia

Beginning at 12:01 am EST in northern New Hampshire, and lasting for approximately the following 30 hours, massive floods of Clinton votes and double digit victory margins are expected. Totals will exceed 300, and may surpass 350 electoral votes by the time this alert expires.

Be warned that there may be localized instances of severe butthurt, with these occurrences particularly extreme near klan rallies, dank basements under mom's house, dungeons and dragons games, chapters of NAMBLA, "men's rights" assemblies, and sex offender registries. Be advised that acute shortages of cheetos, red bull, and mountain dew code red are expected in these areas.

Effects should be minimal along the coasts and in the Midwest. Sane persons residing in the South, or states between Colorado and the Mississippi River are advised to seek alternate shelter.

*****END OF ALERT*****

be aware, friends.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

be aware, friends.

Being from Florida, I love the prowess of Mother Nature.

Be safe, all.

 

[gump]

pukes

 

[Hewson]

I think Ted Cruz will be just fine. He owns the Chicago Cubs after all.















Wait...that's not Ted Cruz?!

 

[gump]

So this is why there was absolutely no moral imperative to donate to the NC GOP earlier in the year after that attack on their headquarters:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/nc-gop-brags-about-depressed-black-turnout

After lobbying local elections officials to limit the early voting opportunities that are popular among African Americans, North Carolina's Republican Party bragged Sunday about this year's decrease in black early voting turnout.

A state GOP press release on the state's early voting numbers highlighted that African American early voting turnout was down by 8.5 percent from 2012.

And

In the 2012 election, North Carolina was covered by what's known as "pre-clearance," referring to a provision in the Voting Rights Act requiring that certain states get federal approval for changes to their elections laws. The Supreme Court gutted that provision in its 2013 Shelby County v. Holder decision, and North Carolina's GOP legislature rushed to pass a voting bill that included cutbacks to the state's early voting. That and four other restrictive provisions in the law were struck down by an appeals court that said they were passed with the intent to discriminate against minorities.

...

North Carolina itself, in its defense of the law, said it sought to cut Sunday voting because it was offered in counties that were disproportionately black and thus, disproportionately Democratic.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

If you recall, I don't think anyone was ever saying you had a moral imperative. Not to reignite that, but I think the opposing side to this mostly was just okay with reaching across the isle as a show of solidarity against violent acts. I certainly won't be donating to them. I just don't think it's an inherently negative thing if someone does.