LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I like how Maryland is the random holdout in your fantasy.
We should all post our final maps before midnight 11/8 (Monday)
When you look at my map you may think I smoked crack and then Jumped a Shark and smoked more crack. I expect those responses.
I have lived in many different states NJ, OR, NV, and currently PA.
Before Last Friday the race was tightening. Early vote indicators show a 40% surge in Independent/Unaffiliated voters over 2012. Trump is consistently leading with Independents in polls. These are folks who are pissed off at both parties in the past 4 years and or people that have never voted before (or haven't in years). The Blue Collar Midwest voter that stayed home last go around would have given Romney the victory in 2012. Pollsters cannot figure out this number that Trump is drawing out of the woodwork nationwide. Bottomline the 2012 model is not optimal in the R-D-I sampling model of polls.
Let's dig deeper into some of what we know. According to early voting African-American turnout is down significantly from 2012. Before Friday Trump was polling above 20% African-American Support in PA, NC, and FL. Hillary needs to hold him below 15% in that demographic or it could spell real problems for her.
Traditional polling on landlines is more difficult nowadays. In 1984, 45% of phone calls were answered with successful questioning. That number is down to 9% today.
History has shown us that in a change election undecideds break toward the challenger of the statuts quo in the final days.
Let's give Trump a 4% boost in the regard.
Trump overperformed polls in primary battles. Proof positive a Shy-Tory effect (Brexitology) of people who voted for Trump but were afraid to tell the pollster. Primaries are different but the same phenomenom is probably going on as well with the current polls.
3% Trump advantage.
The mystery volume of those never voters. Seen pundits speculate 4-6%.
4% Trump advantage
Many Never-Trumpers have come to realize the stakes of sitting on the sidelines with the FBI re-opening the investigation. His GOP support levels will trend from the high 70s to near 90% when they get in the ballot box. In an ABC Washington Post poll Trump led Hillary by 11 points when asked of those for Day of Voting.
With Friday's investigation announcement google trends showed a massive spike in people want to change their early votes. Most in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Hillary's numbers will be deflated with the revelations. Especially in big Bernie states in New England, the Midwest, and Oregon.
Taking all these measures into account I come to the conclusion that Trump will win states where is currently tied to even -4 down. They belong to him. Virginia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are now statistical dead heats. Minnesota had a poll 10 days ago that only showed Trump down 2. Wisconsin had a poll with him up 4. Bear in mind The people of Minnesota are up in arms over a 60% healthcare surge in cost. The legislature is even calling for an emergency session. When these bills hit your kitchen table, your preconceived notions of who the candidates are goes out the window. There goes the vacation you planned. How in God's name am I gonna budget for this? Real life pocketbook issues will drive the voters to look at both candidates' policies on Obamacare. Advantage Trump.
During the Summer there were several polls that showed the race to close for comfort with Trump down 4 in NJ, 4 in Rhode Island, 2 in CT, Tied in Maine, Up 2 in Oregon.
Hillary is now running ads in NJ. Making massive ad buy in Michigan and Virginia as well. The campaigns' behaviors tell you what their internal polling is telling them. Since Friday Trump has started hitting Michigan and Wisconsin on campaign stops.
Jimmy Carter's pollster Pat Caddell said "the dam is breaking" much like he saw in 1980 which led to the Reagan landslide victory.
That is a scary looking map.
(Times like this I wish my favorite color wasn't red )
I like how Maryland is the random holdout in your fantasy.
I do have a small amount of fear, by either outcome really. I fear violence if she wins, although small isolated events. But if he wins... I see a child that will flex his power as soon as he can, and results will be like a toddler playing with matches.
I think violence is far more likely if Trump is elected than the other way around. I could see the black community in inner cities going off-the-chain about it all
My husband is an economist and his clients (talking about hedge fund managers, etc) are all in a panic over a Trump victory and believe the markets will crash immediately if that happens. So unfortunately in our household the tv will be on until the wee hours of the morning.
I'm pretty sure I'll take one of my sleeping pills at 10 pm and knock myself out haha.
I didn't find it scary. I laughed.
Oh, yeah, it's ludicrous. But still, just the mere thought of an electoral map looking like that...eesh.
Tons of suburban DC workers make up the bulk of the population plus Baltimore.
Virginia has much more to wash out the NOVA Government employees.
I really hate the Electoral College, it is about as legitimate as Julian and slavery and brought to you by the same people
We should all post our final maps before midnight 11/8 (Monday)
When you look at my map you may think I smoked crack and then Jumped a Shark and smoked more crack. I expect those responses.
I have lived in many different states NJ, OR, NV, and currently PA.
Before Last Friday the race was tightening. Early vote indicators show a 40% surge in Independent/Unaffiliated voters over 2012. Trump is consistently leading with Independents in polls. These are folks who are pissed off at both parties in the past 4 years and or people that have never voted before (or haven't in years). The Blue Collar Midwest voter that stayed home last go around would have given Romney the victory in 2012. Pollsters cannot figure out this number that Trump is drawing out of the woodwork nationwide. Bottomline the 2012 model is not optimal in the R-D-I sampling model of polls.
Let's dig deeper into some of what we know. According to early voting African-American turnout is down significantly from 2012. Before Friday Trump was polling above 20% African-American Support in PA, NC, and FL. Hillary needs to hold him below 15% in that demographic or it could spell real problems for her.
Traditional polling on landlines is more difficult nowadays. In 1984, 45% of phone calls were answered with successful questioning. That number is down to 9% today.
History has shown us that in a change election undecideds break toward the challenger of the statuts quo in the final days.
Let's give Trump a 4% boost in the regard.
Trump overperformed polls in primary battles. Proof positive a Shy-Tory effect (Brexitology) of people who voted for Trump but were afraid to tell the pollster. Primaries are different but the same phenomenom is probably going on as well with the current polls.
3% Trump advantage.
The mystery volume of those never voters. Seen pundits speculate 4-6%.
4% Trump advantage
Many Never-Trumpers have come to realize the stakes of sitting on the sidelines with the FBI re-opening the investigation. His GOP support levels will trend from the high 70s to near 90% when they get in the ballot box. In an ABC Washington Post poll Trump led Hillary by 11 points when asked of those for Day of Voting.
With Friday's investigation announcement google trends showed a massive spike in people want to change their early votes. Most in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Hillary's numbers will be deflated with the revelations. Especially in big Bernie states in New England, the Midwest, and Oregon.
Taking all these measures into account I come to the conclusion that Trump will win states where is currently tied to even -4 down. They belong to him. Virginia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are now statistical dead heats. Minnesota had a poll 10 days ago that only showed Trump down 2. Wisconsin had a poll with him up 4. Bear in mind The people of Minnesota are up in arms over a 60% healthcare surge in cost. The legislature is even calling for an emergency session. When these bills hit your kitchen table, your preconceived notions of who the candidates are goes out the window. There goes the vacation you planned. How in God's name am I gonna budget for this? Real life pocketbook issues will drive the voters to look at both candidates' policies on Obamacare. Advantage Trump.
During the Summer there were several polls that showed the race to close for comfort with Trump down 4 in NJ, 4 in Rhode Island, 2 in CT, Tied in Maine, Up 2 in Oregon.
Hillary is now running ads in NJ. Making massive ad buy in Michigan and Virginia as well. The campaigns' behaviors tell you what their internal polling is telling them. Since Friday Trump has started hitting Michigan and Wisconsin on campaign stops.
Jimmy Carter's pollster Pat Caddell said "the dam is breaking" much like he saw in 1980 which led to the Reagan landslide victory.
October 1980 poll had Reagan 39 Carter 45 Jon Anderson 9 (never-Reagan) candidate
and look at that map
Oreogropa could be on to something
In the scope and context of your fantasy, I would hardly call that true. Especially because the scenario you're describing exists virtually everywhere where a major metropolitan area exists. In the case of your fantasy, if it happens everywhere else, it happens in Maryland. See: Reagan, Ronald.
Northern Virginia and Metro Maryland are different than an average metro. Trump is perceived as threat to the DC power structure and would upset the apple cart if elected. These lobbyist, bureaucrats may prefer the status quo regardless of party, based on their own self-interest.
If Trump shrinks executive agencies, their jobs are on the line. If he doesn't play ball like the past 30 years lobbying firms may lose some of their power and have to shed employees.
October 1980 poll had Reagan 39 Carter 45 Jon Anderson 9 (never-Reagan) candidate
and look at that map
Oreogropa could be on to something
Northern Virginia and Metro Maryland are different than an average metro. Trump is perceived as threat to the DC power structure and would upset the apple cart if elected. These lobbyist, bureaucrats may prefer the status quo regardless of party, based on their own self-interest.
Plus we have never had an October surprise like this one. Everything is in flux, with very little for the Clinton camp to start making inroads into.
I have very strong ties to DC, and I lived in Virginia. The notion that greater-DC in Maryland has a pull on the entire state in a world where this isn't the case anywhere else... wouldn't go down like that. You're vastly overestimating greater-DC Maryland and simply underestimating DC-NOVA, at that.
Like the 2nd amendment?I really hate the Electoral College, it is about as legitimate as dueling and slavery and brought to you by people that practiced the same.
(Just so we're clear, if you decide you're going to troll with assassination dreams & racist & sexist musings, then you get a week's vacation from this forum - minimum.)
Being in the population is more telling. I concede to you that point, LN7 and Irvine
- I lived several years in Las Vegas and I strongly feel NV will go to Trump by a comfortable margin. Washoe County (Reno) has been solidly in Trumps column and is a bellwether county for the state. The entire economy of NV revolves around the health of the gaming industry, and thusly the pocketbooks of Americans coming to visit the gambling Mecca. Employees in Vegas are mostly stuck working for corporate conglomerates like Caesars which owns a bulk of the strip Casinos. So many are on a quest to get to a Wynn property, where they are treated much better. They view Trump as a Wynn type personality. And he has Wynn's support.
- I currently reside in Northeastern Pennsylvania. My family comes from Polish-Lithuanian immigrants who settled in the Wyoming Valley (Wilkes-Barre Scranton) in the 1890s. Luzerne County PA is the only county in the USA with a plurality of Polish heritage. These are legacy blue collar Democrats. Unionized. My grandparents were Democrats because they grew up with FDR, continuing to Kennedy. Always viewed the GOP as the enemy of the working man. I was in a bar in 2009 when the loyalty was still unbroken. Even heard a guy loudly proclaim "Yeah, I voted for that n*****, lets see what he can do" The leftward lurch of the party has left these Rust Belt voters without an identity over the past several years. That is until Trump came on the scene, a republican that spoke to the working man. Like Washoe County, Luzerne is a bellwether indicator of how the state will go. Both counties were polled in July as part of a Battleground Survey. Luzerne registered +23 Trump. PA will not be plus that big a margin, but Wilkes-Barre/Scranton is custom made for Trump. You can find Rust Belt metros analogous to WB throughout the Midwest and Great Lakes.
- Lived in Southern NJ throughout my youth. NJ is a strange state if you have ever been here. The South and North are like oil and water, because they are in different media spheres of influence (NYC and Philly). New Jersey actually prides itself on telling it like it is and trash talk. Christie got 60% in 2013 case in point. Trump has been in the public consciousness of Jerseyeans for 30 years. Mostly in a positive light. Many good works in NYC. He built up AC during the 80s. Everybody in South Jersey knew that AC needed to retract and or reinvent itself to survive. His pulling out was confirmation of the prevailing reality. Now we have a beautiful 700 foot Revel Casino that lies empty because dumb investors couldn't read the tea leaves. Getting off topic.
In state government NJ tends to alternate GOP and Democrats. They know all too well about corruption/scandal from both sides especially Corzine/McGreevy and Bridgegate. There are very strong Republican counties in different parts of the state. Indian-Americans are strongly behind Trump and have a sizeable population. Don't be shocked if NJ is close. They may roll the dice on a braggadocios Businessman they have known for 30 years over the corruption they have grown to loathe at a statewide level.
- Lived in Oregon 2003-2009. Resort city of Bend in a republican county. In 2000 Bush lost Oregon by less than 2 points IIRC. After that there was a great migration of Californians into the state and it became more liberal, but still remains the reddest of the Pacific Coast states. Custom made for the Bernie vision of an Ecotopia from Portland to Eugene. There is very little connection to Hillary. Have seen very liberal friends disgusted by Hillary that plan to write in Bernie. You dampen Hillary support in Portland and Eugene and the state becomes much more competitive. Outside of those two areas the state looks more like an Iowa electorate.