The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

The friendliest place on the web for anyone that follows U2.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
Status
Not open for further replies.
We should all post our final maps before midnight 11/8 (Monday)



When you look at my map you may think I smoked crack and then Jumped a Shark and smoked more crack. I expect those responses.



I have lived in many different states NJ, OR, NV, and currently PA.



Before Last Friday the race was tightening. Early vote indicators show a 40% surge in Independent/Unaffiliated voters over 2012. Trump is consistently leading with Independents in polls. These are folks who are pissed off at both parties in the past 4 years and or people that have never voted before (or haven't in years). The Blue Collar Midwest voter that stayed home last go around would have given Romney the victory in 2012. Pollsters cannot figure out this number that Trump is drawing out of the woodwork nationwide. Bottomline the 2012 model is not optimal in the R-D-I sampling model of polls.



Let's dig deeper into some of what we know. According to early voting African-American turnout is down significantly from 2012. Before Friday Trump was polling above 20% African-American Support in PA, NC, and FL. Hillary needs to hold him below 15% in that demographic or it could spell real problems for her.



Traditional polling on landlines is more difficult nowadays. In 1984, 45% of phone calls were answered with successful questioning. That number is down to 9% today.



History has shown us that in a change election undecideds break toward the challenger of the statuts quo in the final days.



Let's give Trump a 4% boost in the regard.



Trump overperformed polls in primary battles. Proof positive a Shy-Tory effect (Brexitology) of people who voted for Trump but were afraid to tell the pollster. Primaries are different but the same phenomenom is probably going on as well with the current polls.



3% Trump advantage.



The mystery volume of those never voters. Seen pundits speculate 4-6%.



4% Trump advantage



Many Never-Trumpers have come to realize the stakes of sitting on the sidelines with the FBI re-opening the investigation. His GOP support levels will trend from the high 70s to near 90% when they get in the ballot box. In an ABC Washington Post poll Trump led Hillary by 11 points when asked of those for Day of Voting.



With Friday's investigation announcement google trends showed a massive spike in people want to change their early votes. Most in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Hillary's numbers will be deflated with the revelations. Especially in big Bernie states in New England, the Midwest, and Oregon.



Taking all these measures into account I come to the conclusion that Trump will win states where is currently tied to even -4 down. They belong to him. Virginia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are now statistical dead heats. Minnesota had a poll 10 days ago that only showed Trump down 2. Wisconsin had a poll with him up 4. Bear in mind The people of Minnesota are up in arms over a 60% healthcare surge in cost. The legislature is even calling for an emergency session. When these bills hit your kitchen table, your preconceived notions of who the candidates are goes out the window. There goes the vacation you planned. How in God's name am I gonna budget for this? Real life pocketbook issues will drive the voters to look at both candidates' policies on Obamacare. Advantage Trump.



During the Summer there were several polls that showed the race to close for comfort with Trump down 4 in NJ, 4 in Rhode Island, 2 in CT, Tied in Maine, Up 2 in Oregon.

Hillary is now running ads in NJ. Making massive ad buy in Michigan and Virginia as well. The campaigns' behaviors tell you what their internal polling is telling them. Since Friday Trump has started hitting Michigan and Wisconsin on campaign stops.



Jimmy Carter's pollster Pat Caddell said "the dam is breaking" much like he saw in 1980 which led to the Reagan landslide victory.



Ypd4Y.png



:up: :up:
Good stuff and well thought out post.
IMG_1302.JPG
Here's mine.
I think he could very well steal Penn, VA, Michigan, and Wisky.
They're all close in many of the latest polls. But i'll wait to see how they play out this weekend.
 
I lived in Maryland for 16 years. I'm proud that even Oregoropa doesn't think they have a shot of supporting Trump.
 
I do have a small amount of fear, by either outcome really. I fear violence if she wins, although small isolated events. But if he wins... I see a child that will flex his power as soon as he can, and results will be like a toddler playing with matches.

As I said, my only hope, if there is violence if Hillary wins, is that it opens peoples eyes up to some of the MAJOR problems we have in this country.

I think violence is far more likely if Trump is elected than the other way around. I could see the black community in inner cities going off-the-chain about it all

Of course you do....modddzz plzzzzzzzzzz

My husband is an economist and his clients (talking about hedge fund managers, etc) are all in a panic over a Trump victory and believe the markets will crash immediately if that happens. So unfortunately in our household the tv will be on until the wee hours of the morning.

I'm pretty sure I'll take one of my sleeping pills at 10 pm and knock myself out haha.

This is my biggest fear. Didn't the market already come crashing down once when he was polling ahead of her?

I didn't find it scary. I laughed.

When I saw how long the post was, I knew there could only be hilarity at the end.
 
Oh, yeah, it's ludicrous. But still, just the mere thought of an electoral map looking like that...eesh.

This is where I enjoy the forum. We all digest the information a different way and focus on the numbers rather than raw emotion. As I've said before I'm the 'Red Team' analyzer that will present a different set of data.

This situation we are in now is unprecedented. Anything can happen.
 
I really hate the Electoral College, it is about as legitimate as dueling and slavery and brought to you by people that practiced the same.
 
Last edited:
Tons of suburban DC workers make up the bulk of the population plus Baltimore.



Virginia has much more to wash out the NOVA Government employees.


In the scope and context of your fantasy, I would hardly call that true. Especially because the scenario you're describing exists virtually everywhere where a major metropolitan area exists. In the case of your fantasy, if it happens everywhere else, it happens in Maryland. See: Reagan, Ronald.
 
I really hate the Electoral College, it is about as legitimate as Julian and slavery and brought to you by the same people

Without the Electoral College both candidates would hit the same suburbs over and over for months.

If the Electoral College doesn't make sense then the US Senate presents the same conundrum. 2 Senators for California and 2 Senators for Wyoming.

The Constitution has been tweaked over time to allow for Direct elections by the population in Presidential Elections and the same for US Senate ( it used to be the state legislators picked the Senators)

The framers original intent was a Federalist approach for balance between the states, and the states retaining a greater amount of power than they have today.

As we have seen in many elections the Electoral College can cut both ways. I still like it because it causes our politicians to focus on the entire country. Some states though small in population provide great value to the country in natural resources and production.
 
We should all post our final maps before midnight 11/8 (Monday)



When you look at my map you may think I smoked crack and then Jumped a Shark and smoked more crack. I expect those responses.



I have lived in many different states NJ, OR, NV, and currently PA.



Before Last Friday the race was tightening. Early vote indicators show a 40% surge in Independent/Unaffiliated voters over 2012. Trump is consistently leading with Independents in polls. These are folks who are pissed off at both parties in the past 4 years and or people that have never voted before (or haven't in years). The Blue Collar Midwest voter that stayed home last go around would have given Romney the victory in 2012. Pollsters cannot figure out this number that Trump is drawing out of the woodwork nationwide. Bottomline the 2012 model is not optimal in the R-D-I sampling model of polls.



Let's dig deeper into some of what we know. According to early voting African-American turnout is down significantly from 2012. Before Friday Trump was polling above 20% African-American Support in PA, NC, and FL. Hillary needs to hold him below 15% in that demographic or it could spell real problems for her.



Traditional polling on landlines is more difficult nowadays. In 1984, 45% of phone calls were answered with successful questioning. That number is down to 9% today.



History has shown us that in a change election undecideds break toward the challenger of the statuts quo in the final days.



Let's give Trump a 4% boost in the regard.



Trump overperformed polls in primary battles. Proof positive a Shy-Tory effect (Brexitology) of people who voted for Trump but were afraid to tell the pollster. Primaries are different but the same phenomenom is probably going on as well with the current polls.



3% Trump advantage.



The mystery volume of those never voters. Seen pundits speculate 4-6%.



4% Trump advantage



Many Never-Trumpers have come to realize the stakes of sitting on the sidelines with the FBI re-opening the investigation. His GOP support levels will trend from the high 70s to near 90% when they get in the ballot box. In an ABC Washington Post poll Trump led Hillary by 11 points when asked of those for Day of Voting.



With Friday's investigation announcement google trends showed a massive spike in people want to change their early votes. Most in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Hillary's numbers will be deflated with the revelations. Especially in big Bernie states in New England, the Midwest, and Oregon.



Taking all these measures into account I come to the conclusion that Trump will win states where is currently tied to even -4 down. They belong to him. Virginia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are now statistical dead heats. Minnesota had a poll 10 days ago that only showed Trump down 2. Wisconsin had a poll with him up 4. Bear in mind The people of Minnesota are up in arms over a 60% healthcare surge in cost. The legislature is even calling for an emergency session. When these bills hit your kitchen table, your preconceived notions of who the candidates are goes out the window. There goes the vacation you planned. How in God's name am I gonna budget for this? Real life pocketbook issues will drive the voters to look at both candidates' policies on Obamacare. Advantage Trump.



During the Summer there were several polls that showed the race to close for comfort with Trump down 4 in NJ, 4 in Rhode Island, 2 in CT, Tied in Maine, Up 2 in Oregon.

Hillary is now running ads in NJ. Making massive ad buy in Michigan and Virginia as well. The campaigns' behaviors tell you what their internal polling is telling them. Since Friday Trump has started hitting Michigan and Wisconsin on campaign stops.



Jimmy Carter's pollster Pat Caddell said "the dam is breaking" much like he saw in 1980 which led to the Reagan landslide victory.



Ypd4Y.png


:lol: Not even Trump or Breitbart are living in this delusion.


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference
 
October 1980 poll had Reagan 39 Carter 45 Jon Anderson 9 (never-Reagan) candidate

and look at that map
Oreogropa could be on to something
 
In the scope and context of your fantasy, I would hardly call that true. Especially because the scenario you're describing exists virtually everywhere where a major metropolitan area exists. In the case of your fantasy, if it happens everywhere else, it happens in Maryland. See: Reagan, Ronald.

Northern Virginia and Metro Maryland are different than an average metro. Trump is perceived as threat to the DC power structure and would upset the apple cart if elected. These lobbyist, bureaucrats may prefer the status quo regardless of party, based on their own self-interest.

If Trump shrinks executive agencies, their jobs are on the line. If he doesn't play ball like the past 30 years lobbying firms may lose some of their power and have to shed employees.
 
Northern Virginia and Metro Maryland are different than an average metro. Trump is perceived as threat to the DC power structure and would upset the apple cart if elected. These lobbyist, bureaucrats may prefer the status quo regardless of party, based on their own self-interest.



If Trump shrinks executive agencies, their jobs are on the line. If he doesn't play ball like the past 30 years lobbying firms may lose some of their power and have to shed employees.


I have very strong ties to DC, and I lived in Virginia. The notion that greater-DC in Maryland has a pull on the entire state in a world where this isn't the case anywhere else... wouldn't go down like that. You're vastly overestimating greater-DC Maryland and simply underestimating DC-NOVA, at that.
 
October 1980 poll had Reagan 39 Carter 45 Jon Anderson 9 (never-Reagan) candidate

and look at that map
Oreogropa could be on to something

Plus we have never had an October surprise like this one. Everything is in flux, with very little for the Clinton camp to start making inroads into. They have to hope to hold the blue wall minus Iowa-Ohio and make their stand in North Carolina to deny Trump that state. Their scheduling has shown this to be where they see their Stalingrad or it could be their Waterloo.
 
Northern Virginia and Metro Maryland are different than an average metro. Trump is perceived as threat to the DC power structure and would upset the apple cart if elected. These lobbyist, bureaucrats may prefer the status quo regardless of party, based on their own self-interest.



I live here. You're very, very far off.
 
Plus we have never had an October surprise like this one. Everything is in flux, with very little for the Clinton camp to start making inroads into.


You are loyal to the army, that's for sure.

But your exposure to Breitbart world has you affected.

Do you really think this "October surprise" has any effect beyond the Fox News crowd?




Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference
 
I have very strong ties to DC, and I lived in Virginia. The notion that greater-DC in Maryland has a pull on the entire state in a world where this isn't the case anywhere else... wouldn't go down like that. You're vastly overestimating greater-DC Maryland and simply underestimating DC-NOVA, at that.

:up: Being in the population is more telling. I concede to you that point, LN7 and Irvine

- I lived several years in Las Vegas and I strongly feel NV will go to Trump by a comfortable margin. Washoe County (Reno) has been solidly in Trumps column and is a bellwether county for the state. The entire economy of NV revolves around the health of the gaming industry, and thusly the pocketbooks of Americans coming to visit the gambling Mecca. Employees in Vegas are mostly stuck working for corporate conglomerates like Caesars which owns a bulk of the strip Casinos. So many are on a quest to get to a Wynn property, where they are treated much better. They view Trump as a Wynn type personality. And he has Wynn's support.

- I currently reside in Northeastern Pennsylvania. My family comes from Polish-Lithuanian immigrants who settled in the Wyoming Valley (Wilkes-Barre Scranton) in the 1890s. Luzerne County PA is the only county in the USA with a plurality of Polish heritage. These are legacy blue collar Democrats. Unionized. My grandparents were Democrats because they grew up with FDR, continuing to Kennedy. Always viewed the GOP as the enemy of the working man. I was in a bar in 2009 when the loyalty was still unbroken. Even heard a guy loudly proclaim "Yeah, I voted for that n*****, lets see what he can do" The leftward lurch of the party has left these Rust Belt voters without an identity over the past several years. That is until Trump came on the scene, a republican that spoke to the working man. Like Washoe County, Luzerne is a bellwether indicator of how the state will go. Both counties were polled in July as part of a Battleground Survey. Luzerne registered +23 Trump. PA will not be plus that big a margin, but Wilkes-Barre/Scranton is custom made for Trump. You can find Rust Belt metros analogous to WB throughout the Midwest and Great Lakes.

- Lived in Southern NJ throughout my youth. NJ is a strange state if you have ever been here. The South and North are like oil and water, because they are in different media spheres of influence (NYC and Philly). New Jersey actually prides itself on telling it like it is and trash talk. Christie got 60% in 2013 case in point. Trump has been in the public consciousness of Jerseyeans for 30 years. Mostly in a positive light. Many good works in NYC. He built up AC during the 80s. Everybody in South Jersey knew that AC needed to retract and or reinvent itself to survive. His pulling out was confirmation of the prevailing reality. Now we have a beautiful 700 foot Revel Casino that lies empty because dumb investors couldn't read the tea leaves. Getting off topic.

In state government NJ tends to alternate GOP and Democrats. They know all too well about corruption/scandal from both sides especially Corzine/McGreevy and Bridgegate. There are very strong Republican counties in different parts of the state. Indian-Americans are strongly behind Trump and have a sizeable population. Don't be shocked if NJ is close. They may roll the dice on a braggadocios Businessman they have known for 30 years over the corruption they have grown to loathe at a statewide level.

- Lived in Oregon 2003-2009. Resort city of Bend in a republican county. In 2000 Bush lost Oregon by less than 2 points IIRC. After that there was a great migration of Californians into the state and it became more liberal, but still remains the reddest of the Pacific Coast states. Custom made for the Bernie vision of an Ecotopia from Portland to Eugene. There is very little connection to Hillary. Have seen very liberal friends disgusted by Hillary that plan to write in Bernie. You dampen Hillary support in Portland and Eugene and the state becomes much more competitive. Outside of those two areas the state looks more like an Iowa electorate.
 
(Just so we're clear, if you decide you're going to troll with assassination dreams & racist & sexist musings, then you get a week's vacation from this forum - minimum.)
 
(Just so we're clear, if you decide you're going to troll with assassination dreams & racist & sexist musings, then you get a week's vacation from this forum - minimum.)

oh dear god diemen please tell me he's been banned for the next week.
 
:up: Being in the population is more telling. I concede to you that point, LN7 and Irvine

- I lived several years in Las Vegas and I strongly feel NV will go to Trump by a comfortable margin. Washoe County (Reno) has been solidly in Trumps column and is a bellwether county for the state. The entire economy of NV revolves around the health of the gaming industry, and thusly the pocketbooks of Americans coming to visit the gambling Mecca. Employees in Vegas are mostly stuck working for corporate conglomerates like Caesars which owns a bulk of the strip Casinos. So many are on a quest to get to a Wynn property, where they are treated much better. They view Trump as a Wynn type personality. And he has Wynn's support.

- I currently reside in Northeastern Pennsylvania. My family comes from Polish-Lithuanian immigrants who settled in the Wyoming Valley (Wilkes-Barre Scranton) in the 1890s. Luzerne County PA is the only county in the USA with a plurality of Polish heritage. These are legacy blue collar Democrats. Unionized. My grandparents were Democrats because they grew up with FDR, continuing to Kennedy. Always viewed the GOP as the enemy of the working man. I was in a bar in 2009 when the loyalty was still unbroken. Even heard a guy loudly proclaim "Yeah, I voted for that n*****, lets see what he can do" The leftward lurch of the party has left these Rust Belt voters without an identity over the past several years. That is until Trump came on the scene, a republican that spoke to the working man. Like Washoe County, Luzerne is a bellwether indicator of how the state will go. Both counties were polled in July as part of a Battleground Survey. Luzerne registered +23 Trump. PA will not be plus that big a margin, but Wilkes-Barre/Scranton is custom made for Trump. You can find Rust Belt metros analogous to WB throughout the Midwest and Great Lakes.

- Lived in Southern NJ throughout my youth. NJ is a strange state if you have ever been here. The South and North are like oil and water, because they are in different media spheres of influence (NYC and Philly). New Jersey actually prides itself on telling it like it is and trash talk. Christie got 60% in 2013 case in point. Trump has been in the public consciousness of Jerseyeans for 30 years. Mostly in a positive light. Many good works in NYC. He built up AC during the 80s. Everybody in South Jersey knew that AC needed to retract and or reinvent itself to survive. His pulling out was confirmation of the prevailing reality. Now we have a beautiful 700 foot Revel Casino that lies empty because dumb investors couldn't read the tea leaves. Getting off topic.

In state government NJ tends to alternate GOP and Democrats. They know all too well about corruption/scandal from both sides especially Corzine/McGreevy and Bridgegate. There are very strong Republican counties in different parts of the state. Indian-Americans are strongly behind Trump and have a sizeable population. Don't be shocked if NJ is close. They may roll the dice on a braggadocios Businessman they have known for 30 years over the corruption they have grown to loathe at a statewide level.

- Lived in Oregon 2003-2009. Resort city of Bend in a republican county. In 2000 Bush lost Oregon by less than 2 points IIRC. After that there was a great migration of Californians into the state and it became more liberal, but still remains the reddest of the Pacific Coast states. Custom made for the Bernie vision of an Ecotopia from Portland to Eugene. There is very little connection to Hillary. Have seen very liberal friends disgusted by Hillary that plan to write in Bernie. You dampen Hillary support in Portland and Eugene and the state becomes much more competitive. Outside of those two areas the state looks more like an Iowa electorate.

Not even sure where to begin with this nonsense. Where are you getting your NV numbers? Washoe County has Dems with an early voting average 9% higher than they had in 2012.

NJ??? Not even worth a response on that one.

I also lived in Bend, OR. If you in any way think that Oregon will go red, in any even alternate universe, then I will please take some of the drugs you got.

carry on
 
Waiting for the media shock on Tuesday night, when the hidden Clinton voters (reasonable republican) show their hand.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom