We should all post our final maps before midnight 11/8 (Monday)
When you look at my map you may think I smoked crack and then Jumped a Shark and smoked more crack. I expect those responses.
I have lived in many different states NJ, OR, NV, and currently PA.
Before Last Friday the race was tightening. Early vote indicators show a 40% surge in Independent/Unaffiliated voters over 2012. Trump is consistently leading with Independents in polls. These are folks who are pissed off at both parties in the past 4 years and or people that have never voted before (or haven't in years). The Blue Collar Midwest voter that stayed home last go around would have given Romney the victory in 2012. Pollsters cannot figure out this number that Trump is drawing out of the woodwork nationwide. Bottomline the 2012 model is not optimal in the R-D-I sampling model of polls.
Let's dig deeper into some of what we know. According to early voting African-American turnout is down significantly from 2012. Before Friday Trump was polling above 20% African-American Support in PA, NC, and FL. Hillary needs to hold him below 15% in that demographic or it could spell real problems for her.
Traditional polling on landlines is more difficult nowadays. In 1984, 45% of phone calls were answered with successful questioning. That number is down to 9% today.
History has shown us that in a change election undecideds break toward the challenger of the statuts quo in the final days.
Let's give Trump a 4% boost in the regard.
Trump overperformed polls in primary battles. Proof positive a Shy-Tory effect (Brexitology) of people who voted for Trump but were afraid to tell the pollster. Primaries are different but the same phenomenom is probably going on as well with the current polls.
3% Trump advantage.
The mystery volume of those never voters. Seen pundits speculate 4-6%.
4% Trump advantage
Many Never-Trumpers have come to realize the stakes of sitting on the sidelines with the FBI re-opening the investigation. His GOP support levels will trend from the high 70s to near 90% when they get in the ballot box. In an ABC Washington Post poll Trump led Hillary by 11 points when asked of those for Day of Voting.
With Friday's investigation announcement google trends showed a massive spike in people want to change their early votes. Most in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Hillary's numbers will be deflated with the revelations. Especially in big Bernie states in New England, the Midwest, and Oregon.
Taking all these measures into account I come to the conclusion that Trump will win states where is currently tied to even -4 down. They belong to him. Virginia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are now statistical dead heats. Minnesota had a poll 10 days ago that only showed Trump down 2. Wisconsin had a poll with him up 4. Bear in mind The people of Minnesota are up in arms over a 60% healthcare surge in cost. The legislature is even calling for an emergency session. When these bills hit your kitchen table, your preconceived notions of who the candidates are goes out the window. There goes the vacation you planned. How in God's name am I gonna budget for this? Real life pocketbook issues will drive the voters to look at both candidates' policies on Obamacare. Advantage Trump.
During the Summer there were several polls that showed the race to close for comfort with Trump down 4 in NJ, 4 in Rhode Island, 2 in CT, Tied in Maine, Up 2 in Oregon.
Hillary is now running ads in NJ. Making massive ad buy in Michigan and Virginia as well. The campaigns' behaviors tell you what their internal polling is telling them. Since Friday Trump has started hitting Michigan and Wisconsin on campaign stops.
Jimmy Carter's pollster Pat Caddell said "the dam is breaking" much like he saw in 1980 which led to the Reagan landslide victory.